The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[HTTR]

Question, and I don’t know the answer… how many sub 31” edges have been drafted at all to help potentially debunk this? Or confirm it?

The answer is very few. So you have a good point. Most guys with his arm length don’t succeed even in college to the point where they are drafted. Yet Bain somehow played so well that he’s in consideration for a top 10 pick. So in that regard, he’s already a unicorn.

 

[DogofWar1]

Anecdotally I recall the answer being 0 players at sub 31" arms have ever gotten 10 sacks in a season, but I don't have hard data on me right now. I'll have to go look that up when I have some time at the computer.

As for the pic I chose I was running late to work and grabbed the first thing that came up in image search lol

 

[KDawg]

Anecdotally I recall the answer being 0 players at sub 31" arms have ever gotten 10 sacks in a season, but I don't have hard data on me right now. I'll have to go look that up when I have some time at the computer.

As for the pic I chose I was running late to work and grabbed the first thing that came up in image search lol

But does that stat matter if they weren’t first round picks?

I don’t think there is enough sample size to conclude that a sub 31” pass rusher is a unicorn because I don’t think many exist as a first round talent.

And as HTTR said… doesn’t the fact that Bain is a first round talent despite arm length mean that he IS a unicorn?

Maybe there are a few guys that were drafted in the first that bombed. I honestly have no idea. But I’m guessing there isn’t enough sampling to come to any kind of reliable data point other than sub 31” arm length pass rushers aren’t drafted in the first. In which case, when he is… he is a 🦄

 

[Riggo44]

Anecdotally I recall the answer being 0 players at sub 31" arms have ever gotten 10 sacks in a season, but I don't have hard data on me right now. I'll have to go look that up when I have some time at the computer.

As for the pic I chose I was running late to work and grabbed the first thing that came up in image search lol

 

[BayouBrave86]

But does that stat matter if they weren’t first round picks?

I don’t think there is enough sample size to conclude that a sub 31” pass rusher is a unicorn because I don’t think many exist as a first round talent.

And as HTTR said… doesn’t the fact that Bain is a first round talent despite arm length mean that he IS a unicorn?

Maybe there are a few guys that were drafted in the first that bombed. I honestly have no idea. But I’m guessing there isn’t enough sampling to come to any kind of reliable data point other than sub 31” arm length pass rushers aren’t drafted in the first. In which case, when he is… he is a 🦄

Anecdotally I recall the answer being 0 players at sub 31" arms have ever gotten 10 sacks in a season, but I don't have hard data on me right now. I'll have to go look that up when I have some time at the computer.

As for the pic I chose I was running late to work and grabbed the first thing that came up in image search lol

I posted this earlier in the thread


@grok
what NFL players with arm length under 31 inches have gotten 10+ sacks in a season?



@grok
·

None found in NFL history with verified under-31" arms hitting 10+ sacks in a season. Top sack producers (like the 2025 chart) and 100-sack career guys all measure 32"+. Leverage edge is real for disengaging blockers—technique helps but rarely overcomes that gap at elite levels.

 

[KDawg]

I posted this earlier in the thread


@grok
what NFL players with arm length under 31 inches have gotten 10+ sacks in a season?



@grok
·

None found in NFL history with verified under-31" arms hitting 10+ sacks in a season. Top sack producers (like the 2025 chart) and 100-sack career guys all measure 32"+. Leverage edge is real for disengaging blockers—technique helps but rarely overcomes that gap at elite levels.

So, again though, it’s not answering my question. How many sub 31” edges have been drafted in the first round? If that number is low (under 5) doesn’t that by definition kind of mean that Bain is on an entirely different level than any of those other guys?

And doesn’t that already put him in some kind of elite tier of player?

In that case, if he’s done something that others haven’t done in college, and he’s held up well against collegiate OTs, doesn’t that mean he has more of a chance than the people completely writing him off?

I’m not saying he is a lock. He has a ton to prove. But what I am saying is he is breaking ground that not many, if any, have ever broken. That kind of puts him in a 1 of 1 situation.

 

[Riggo44]

I go back to the possible vs. probably. Is it possible? Sure, entirely possible. Is it probable? That's where I pause. It certainly isn't worth the #7 overall pick. I think Bain is one of those that drops.

 

[Dlts20]

You got a friend in Trevor Sikemma from PFF about Bain, he loves that guy, he recognizes that not everyone in the NFL feels the same way he does but he pounds the table for him.

I don't know if this team likes or doesn't like Bain, Peters did hype he cares about length. But I could see Quinn loving the dog in how Bain plays.

He's too much a wildcard for me to embrace that pick and I got some other players that I love that they can take instead.

But if I wanted him, I wouldn't rule out that this team is in on him. McShay and Brugler both said polarizing prospect from what they hear when talking to scouts -- and by that its not that the whole NFL is negative on him, its that some really dig him and some don't. We obviously got no idea where this team falls on that spectrum.

I feel like Peters made an exception in his comments. If I remember correctly, he said that they like length, long arms, etc, but then literally said something like "even though there is a top rated guy in this draft that goes against that".

He said something similar to that to paraphrase

 

[Dlts20]

This guy is just different to me from the others. Doesn't have the measurables but almost reminds me of a poor man's Strahan and it's been forever since we had someone like that.

Whats crazy to me is that he played a lot at a disadvantage because on a lot of plays he lined up a little behind the LOS and behind the rest of the D-Line players. If he gets closer then he will apply even more pressure.

 

[KDawg]

I go back to the possible vs. probably. Is it possible? Sure, entirely possible. Is it probable? That's where I pause. It certainly isn't worth the #7 overall pick. I think Bain is one of those that drops.

I don’t know. I think he’s already proven he’s different.

Where I think there is some leniency is if we don’t pick him and he blows up. Everyone will say, “ya, but I mean no one saw that coming…”

 

[COWBOY-KILLA]

I'm not advocating one way or another, but anyone who has followed Ruben Bain will know this has always been the case about him.
He was only a 4 star recruit because of these perceived deficiency's. Check the Tape. Look at his results. The guy produces.
He's a beast and game wrecker, I dont think that changes in the NFL.
Is he a 20 sack guy, no I don't think so.

 

[KDawg]

I'm not advocating one way or another, but anyone who has followed Ruben Bain will know this has always been been the case about him.
He was only a 4 star recruit because of these perceived deficiency's. Check the Tape. Look at his results. The guy produces.
He's a beast and game wrecker, I dont think that changes in the NFL.
Is he a 20 sack guy, no I don't think so.

Hence why I keep pushing him. The guy is just different.

 

[BayouBrave86]

So, again though, it’s not answering my question. How many sub 31” edges have been drafted in the first round? If that number is low (under 5) doesn’t that by definition kind of mean that Bain is on an entirely different level than any of those other guys?

And doesn’t that already put him in some kind of elite tier of player?

In that case, if he’s done something that others haven’t done in college, and he’s held up well against collegiate OTs, doesn’t that mean he has more of a chance than the people completely writing him off?

I’m not saying he is a lock. He has a ton to prove. But what I am saying is he is breaking ground that not many, if any, have ever broken. That kind of puts him in a 1 of 1 situation.

I don’t know aren’t you the draft guru? I’m just saying historical data does not lend well to Bain being successful. Unicorn or not. This team really doesn’t have the luxury of taking on a risk at 7 due to their inability to draft well for the last 30 plus years.

 

[KDawg]

I don’t know aren’t you the draft guru? I’m just saying historical data does not lend well to Bain being successful. Unicorn or not. This team really doesn’t have the luxury of taking on a risk at 7 due to their inability to draft well for the last 30 plus years.

I’m legitimately asking. I don’t have the number - if you have it I’d love to know.

And I’m no guru. I love football, make a small part of my living on it and enjoy talking ball. I learn new things every day.

 

[BayouBrave86]

Gonna have to put myself on a Bain timeout too

 

[DogofWar1]

I can buy that he might be different.

But unless all the other elite or borderline elite guys are gone, do we want to be the team that takes that gamble? I'd feel way more comfortable grabbing him at, say, 15, than at 7.

I like Bain way more than Forbes but the arguments are kinda similar. Guy who is great in college that we hope/expect to overcome physical deficiencies at the NFL level.

Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't.

 

[KDawg]

I can buy that he might be different.

But unless all the other elite or borderline elite guys are gone, do we want to be the team that takes that gamble? I'd feel way more comfortable grabbing him at, say, 15, than at 7.

I like Bain way more than Forbes but the arguments are kinda similar. Guy who is great in college that we hope/expect to overcome physical deficiencies at the NFL level.

Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't.

Bain and Forbes are not even remotely the same. Yes, Bain has an arm length concern that is legit based on whatever historical data we have. But Forbes was drafted legitimately well under standard NFL weight for any position.

That said, I’m not sure.

I’d take Love over him. Very likely Styles. Possibly Reese. Tate and Bain are similar to me (some will take that as a slight on Tate, but should really take it as a compliment knowing how I feel about Bain.)

But I legitimately don’t think he’s on our board.

Which is why I was avoiding Bain convos for a bit. Because they very likely don’t matter.

I’ll defend him if we draft him. Maybe not the strategy. But I’ll defend him. Until then I’m going to go back to not talking about Bain and Downs.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Styles
"For him to shift to a position and already have command of it, you can see where it's going," Quinn said. "Sonny is getting to where it's going to be [elite] as a signal-caller but it's the length, the squareness of playing linebacker, it's the tackling ability. We didn't see a lot of Sonny blitzing [because of] Arvell so where is that going to go? His floor is high, but his ceiling is still high. Caleb's floor is already way up there."

Reese
"The versatility of him being an on-the-ball and off-the-ball player, that's a big deal," Quinn said. "I could see a team blitzing him until he develops a real pass-rush arsenal. I know first-hand what that looks like with a player."

The player to whom Quinn is referring is Micah Parsons, who Quinn coached for three years in Dallas.

"Micah didn't have a lot of [edge] pass rushes but you knew if we could get him on a back, it was lights out," Quinn said. "What we'll find from [Reese] is that he's going to be one hell of a blitzer because of the physicality, the toughness, the quickness."

 

[Chris]

Was this before or after Caleb hobbled into the interview with a walker?

 

[Riggo44]

Downs, per rumors: