The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

Listening to Standig who was at the combine. nothing that big but for what its worth

A. Be surprised if Styles falls to 7
B. Heard good things about Downs interviews and a personnel guy sent him a laugh emoji when he asked about Downs measurables making him drop
C. Similar point to point B relating to Tate.
D. Hears that some think there are 11 legit first round grade players (keep in mind for the trade down folks)
 
skinsinparadise said:
From McShay

​

The “HOF” Tier vs. the “Really Good” Tier​

The most fascinating theme in Indy? How many decision-makers kept circling back to the same players at the top. One guy I learned is on that list is Penn State OG Vega Ioane, who might be the best offensive lineman in the class. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll be the first one drafted, but most teams I spoke with view him as one of the few players in this group with legitimate Hall of Fame potential.​
Outside of Ioane, that ultra-short list includes:​
  • Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love
  • Ohio State LB Sonny Styles
  • Ohio State DS Caleb Downs (despite average measurements)
  • And, for some teams, Ohio State LB Arvell Reese
Here’s the question teams are grappling with: Would you pass on a potential Hall of Fame running back, linebacker, safety, or guard … for a very good but slightly flawed edge, tackle, receiver, or corner?​
Players such as Texas Tech edge David Bailey, Miami edge Rueben Bain Jr., Miami OT Francis Mauigoa, Utah OT Spencer Fano, Georgia OT Monroe Freeling, Ohio State WR Carnell Tate, Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson, USC WR Makai Lemon, and LSU CB Mansoor Delane are legitimate Round 1 talents in most classes. But the grade gap between that tier and the top-end-ceiling guys is real.​
It’s going to create some uncomfortable draft-room debates. I’ll say this: After Fernando Mendoza goes no. 1 to the Raiders, I’ll be shocked if the next four positions drafted (in any order) are LB, RB, DS, and OG. If I were to project landing spots in the top five, here’s where each of those top talents could fit:​
  • Styles is most likely to go to the Jets at no. 2.
  • Tennessee at no. 4 would be a good landing spot for Love.
  • Downs could land with the Jets at no. 2 or the Giants at no. 5.
  • Ioane is least likely to land in the top five, but he’s probably not escaping the top 10.
This is going to test conviction versus positional orthodoxy!​
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So if Downs is legitimately getting serious Top 5 consideration, he shouldn't test at his Pro Day right? Don't do anything to mess up that rare rookie contract for a safety. If he's taken #2 overall, his contract immediately puts him as the 12th highest paid safety in the league. I still can't believe this draft is so weird and unusual that was said by McShay might actually happen. LB, RB, and Safety all Top 5 with a Guard maybe sneaking into it? Really unconventional draft class.

I need to re-watch Ioane, I didn't get a HoF feel when I briefly looked at him earlier. With the increasingly believable rumors we're switching run schemes, I just glanced at him and thought "not a fit". But HoF potential...I must have been wrong about that.
 
Always Commander Never Captain said:
So if Downs is legitimately getting serious Top 5 consideration, he shouldn't test at his Pro Day right? Don't do anything to mess up that rare rookie contract for a safety. If he's taken #2 overall, his contract immediately puts him as the 12th highest paid safety in the league. I still can't believe this draft is so weird and unusual that was said by McShay might actually happen. LB, RB, and Safety all Top 5 with a Guard maybe sneaking into it? Really unconventional draft class.

I need to re-watch Ioane, I didn't get a HoF feel when I briefly looked at him earlier. With the increasingly believable rumors we're switching run schemes, I just glanced at him and thought "not a fit". But HoF potential...I must have been wrong about that.
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Well Downs / Love / Styles are all supposedly pushing into the top 5. Add Mendoza to that at no. 1, and Bain / Reese / Bailey / Mauigoa and suddenly there's not enough room in the top 5 for the guys they're saying are top 5.... it's far from over at this point for any of these guys.
 
Always Commander Never Captain said:
So if Downs is legitimately getting serious Top 5 consideration, he shouldn't test at his Pro Day right? Don't do anything to mess up that rare rookie contract for a safety. If he's taken #2 overall, his contract immediately puts him as the 12th highest paid safety in the league. I still can't believe this draft is so weird and unusual that was said by McShay might actually happen. LB, RB, and Safety all Top 5 with a Guard maybe sneaking into it? Really unconventional draft class.

I need to re-watch Ioane, I didn't get a HoF feel when I briefly looked at him earlier. With the increasingly believable rumors we're switching run schemes, I just glanced at him and thought "not a fit". But HoF potential...I must have been wrong about that.
Click to expand...

Intel usually gets better as the draft approaches. Its hard to figure out what's going down I think in part because there is a qunique convergence of non premium better players versus premium spots players who aren't quite as good. And how do teams reconcile that?

I've heard multiple say Downs killed it in the interviews. The reason why I compared him to Ed Reed is not the style of players they are but from the context of being chess players on the field. And i can see defensive coaches being just blown away but seeing a safety who can think and see it like this dude does.

We got safeties like Quan Martin who seem to struggle with basic coverage assignments -- and we a journeyman safety being hailed as the smart one in the backfield and how they are lost with him. Borderline pathetic narrative. Imagine what a dude like Caleb can do for a defense.

Some forget but Sean Taylor has a down year, his first one without Ryan Clark. Cklark was reputely so helpful for Sean as to positioning and to know what's coming. He adjusted on his own the season after. But in season 1 post Ryan Clark that was a big narrative. Downs is supposedly an NFL coverage savant.
 
Primus Porcus said:
Well Downs / Love / Styles are all supposedly pushing into the top 5. Add Mendoza to that at no. 1, and Bain / Reese / Bailey / Mauigoa and suddenly there's not enough room in the top 5 for the guys they're saying are top 5.... it's far from over at this point for any of these guys.
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Agree the math doesn't add up that no one drops to 7. It reminds me of the Kiper-Jon Gruden draft special when Gruden goes to Kiper that Kiper seemed to have a hundred players going in the 2nd round.
 
Kiper and Yates from an hour ago. It basically starts around the 8:40 mark for the most part.

 
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Depending on who you ask, Sonny Styles had the best interview sessions at the combine. Or Caleb Downs. Or Carnell Tate. Or...insert other Ohio State guys. Clearly Ohio State brought in some good professionals to help them train their interview skills.

Not to beat the Love drum much longer. But I read he and the other Notre Dame RB (Price), did extra drills/routes for QB's at the combine. He didn't leave early. He only did one timed test, but he was full go and then some on field work. We know Jayden Daniels works out much longer than most. Luke McCaffrey is at his throwing sessions hours before they're supposed to be at the building (but that hasn't translated to the game). Daniels and Love will develop a rapport in the passing game. He's going to have extra value as a safety valve for Daniels, so Daniels doesn't feel the need to throw his body away scrambling...he can just hit the check down a beat earlier.
 
lol, its early and rumors to me are mostly just entertainment. But I warned earlier in this process when I saw some Bailey hate that often on draft threads if one dude gets slammed watch out, its an omen that he might be the dude taken in the draft.

The QB thread on ES as draft day approached had a lot of hate for Jayden. When the rumor late in the process that Rivera dug Forbes in the first, there was some hate there (some of it from me) leading to the draft. Ditto Haskins (RIP) including from me. I and another one on the draft thread really really didn't want Payne because we thought there were better options.

So lol more pushback on Tate, might bring the draft gods to make it happen. Which would be fine by me.




 
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skinsinparadise said:
Intel usually gets better as the draft approaches. Its hard to figure out what's going down I think in part because there is a qunique convergence of non premium better players versus premium spots players who aren't quite as good. And how do teams reconcile that?

I've heard multiple say Downs killed it in the interviews. The reason why I compared him to Ed Reed is not the style of players they are but from the context of being chess players on the field. And i can see defensive coaches being just blown away but seeing a safety who can think and see it like this dude does.

We got safeties like Quan Martin who seem to struggle with basic coverage assignments -- and we a journeyman safety being hailed as the smart one in the backfield and how they are lost with him. Borderline pathetic narrative. Imagine what a dude like Caleb can do for a defense.

Some forget but Sean Taylor has a down year, his first one without Ryan Clark. Cklark was reputely so helpful for Sean as to positioning and to know what's coming. He adjusted on his own the season after. But in season 1 post Ryan Clark that was a big narrative. Downs is supposedly an NFL coverage savant.
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Love Bailey at #7 but doubtful we'd go with him if we landed Mafe or Oweh in FA, could but doubtful. I really like Downs at #7 if he is still there. I really like Love's side kick, Price a lot. He's not as talented as Love, overall. He's my second favorite RB in the draft. Guessing he goes late first/early 2nd. Just don't have the vibes for Tate. I guess I'm out in outer space, LOL. Denzel Boston or RB Price from ND in the late first would be great gets along with a 2nd round pick for a S like Fitzgerald from USC who I think goes mid-late 2nd or Haulcy from LSU who goes early 2nd, if we can't get Downs at #7 wouldn't be too shabby.
 
skinsinparadise said:
lol, its early and rumors to me are mostly just entertainment. But I warned earlier in this process when I saw some Bailey hate that often on draft threads if one dude gets slammed watch out, its an omen that he might be the dude taken in the draft.

The QB thread on ES as draft day approached had a lot of hate for Jayden. When the rumor late in the process that Rivera dug Forbes in the first, there was some hate there (some of it from me) leading to the draft. Ditto Haskins (RIP) including from me. I and another one on the draft thread really really didn't want Payne because we thought there were better options.

So lol more pushback on Tate, might bring the draft gods to make it happen. Which would be fine by me.




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The inverse group-think psychology prediction method! I like it.

In fairness, both Jayden and Drake had lots of supporters in ES draft threads. The majority wanted to pick a side. The minority felt like the people who were quietly in the corner going "Uhh...they both look pretty good to me?" Not quite sure the inverse method works for Jayden, he had a lot of vocal supporters (as he and Drake both deserved!)

2017 inverse method did not work
2018, inverse method worked
2019, inverse method crushed it
2020 inverse method did not work
2021 inverse method crushed it (everyone wanted Darrisaw 1st and other LB's in the 2nd round)
2022 inverse method crushed it (trading back for a 2nd round WR)
2023 inverse method crushed it
2024 inverse method was neutral (at least that's my view)
2025 inverse method worked

I think most people wanted someone different than Conerly right? We just traded for Tunsil, Brandon Coleman was in theory the RT now. So we were all looking at Treveyon Henderson (RB), a trade back, or an Edge rusher, or something.
 
If Love is gone (because he seems to be the favorite now), and Downs, I hope they consider taking Delane instead of a WR2 or a middling Edge with Jurrasic Park arms.
 
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Always Commander Never Captain said:
The inverse group-think psychology prediction method! I like it.

In fairness, both Jayden and Drake had lots of supporters in ES draft threads. The majority wanted to pick a side. The minority felt like the people who were quietly in the corner going "Uhh...they both look pretty good to me?" Not quite sure the inverse method works for Jayden, he had a lot of vocal supporters (as he and Drake both deserved!)
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I was one of the odd ones on that thread, loved both Jayden and Maye. Most (not all) picked a side. With many more with Maye.

And when I mentioned Keim is getting the vibe that they prefer Jayden, it got a bit heated. First it was Keim is a clown and doesn't know what he's talking about. Then I recall multiple people say the more they watched Jayden the less they are sold on him and they just don't see it -- goingcommando/McQueen was one of those people.

It got so over the top pro Maye and to an extent anti Daniels as the draft approached -- that when NFLchick dissapeared, I kind of became the defacto Jayden guy there defending the idea of taking him even though I had a slight perference for Maye.
 
Sad that this team and Jayden have gone from the sexy team in the NFL to meh again with some. But heck at least some of the young WRs in this draft referenced Jayden. We will be back.

 
skinsinparadise said:
Sad that this team and Jayden have gone from the sexy team in the NFL to meh again with some. But heck at least some of the young WRs in this draft referenced Jayden. We will be back.

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We just need a good next year with Jayden staying at least mostly healthy
 
skinsinparadise said:
lol, its early and rumors to me are mostly just entertainment. But I warned earlier in this process when I saw some Bailey hate that often on draft threads if one dude gets slammed watch out, its an omen that he might be the dude taken in the draft.

The QB thread on ES as draft day approached had a lot of hate for Jayden. When the rumor late in the process that Rivera dug Forbes in the first, there was some hate there (some of it from me) leading to the draft. Ditto Haskins (RIP) including from me. I and another one on the draft thread really really didn't want Payne because we thought there were better options.

So lol more pushback on Tate, might bring the draft gods to make it happen. Which would be fine by me.




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If true then this is an overlooked quote because it says top 3 pass rushers which brings into question who is 3? Most thought that Washington was out on Bain but maybe they still value him high or is it someone else?
 
Catching up withg McShay's podcast, he heard that Tate was the best interview "top of the list" and teams were blown away by the dude and his football acumen.
 
SkinsFTW said:
If Love is gone (because he seems to be the favorite now), and Downs, I hope they consider taking Delane instead of a WR2 or a middling Edge with Jurrasic Park arms.
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I totally agree. I’d much rather a shutdown corner too, if the chips fell this way. You can always find a highly productive WR later in the draft. That assumes the two players you mentioned above are gone by #7, as well as Reese, Bailey and Styles.
 
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