The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[SkinsNumberOne]

I mean if they had not been out-tanked by the Raiders and ran into the totally given up Cowboys, then they would still be picking 1st and we wouldn't be able to pick as high as 5th either.

At this point it's over, done with, no point in looking back. We can't get the toothpaste back into the tube and if we did then other teams could too.

What I didn't realize is, this isn't a butterfly effect scenario.

We'd have been picking #5 above NYG and CLE if we lost to Philly in week 18, period.
That's a bit crazy. That means we would - I "think" (although of course hard to predict with the draft) we could have gotten Downs or at least have a lot better view of options. 5 to 7 is a bad drop potentially in this draft (obviously not all drafts are created equal).

Yes, it's over. I will focus on the Eagles getting bounced early in the playoffs and just kind of assume it ended up hurting them. I try to choose happy if I can... yikes.

 

[KDawg]

Reason I am concerned about Bailey skipping it. The more tape I watch the stiffer he looks to me. That was supposed to be Faulks main issue. This draft class is just so average at best. All of the top 10 prospects have limitations imo.

Every draft classes top tier has limitations. People just don’t want to take them seriously. I can’t think of a guy who was ever a clean prospect for me. It’s just not possible.

I was pretty concerned about Chase Young’s lack of hand usage in college - and I was right. I still thought he would be a stud - wrong there. But none of these guys are clean.

Having said that, I am falling more and more in the Bailey is overhyped bucket. I’ve kinda been there, but I’m approaching “I don’t want him at all” territory.

He’s stiff, he’s a one trick pony, he got beat by good tackles regularly, a lot of his plays are hustle plays. I don’t see what others see. At all.

Bain has short arms.

Mendoza has some skill limitations in regards to arm talent.

Love runs too upright.

But you can kinda do this to every class.

 

[BayouBrave86]

Yeah I’m honestly great with Love at 7 if it comes down to it. He’s going to be the next big time back in the league and RB stock is UP again.

 

[method man]

Every draft classes top tier has limitations. People just don’t want to take them seriously. I can’t think of a guy who was ever a clean prospect for me. It’s just not possible.

I was pretty concerned about Chase Young’s lack of hand usage in college - and I was right. I still thought he would be a stud - wrong there. But none of these guys are clean.

Having said that, I am falling more and more in the Bailey is overhyped bucket. I’ve kinda been there, but I’m approaching “I don’t want him at all” territory.

He’s stiff, he’s a one trick pony, he got beat by good tackles regularly, a lot of his plays are hustle plays. I don’t see what others see. At all.

Bain has short arms.

Mendoza has some skill limitations in regards to arm talent.

Love runs too upright.

But you can kinda do this to every class.

Chase Young is a stud. He had 10 sacks in 12 games (PFF credited him with 12) and was top 30 in pressures despite missing 5 games.

On Bailey, the reason the majority of this board loves him is because he has elite athletic traits (his first step would be considered elite in the NFL), has multiple pass rush moves, has both the counting (sacks) and advanced stats (pressure rate) over 2 seasons of play for different teams and is smart/plays with a nonstop motor. Is having average bend a death knell as a pass rusher? No. James Pierce had 10.5 sacks as a rookie in a part time role with similar traits (including the average bend) but a 10 cent head and a questionable motor.

You are saying "he got beat by good tackles regularly." 1) Hustle sacks are still sacks & 2) How is "regularly" a fair word to use here? How many good tackles did he go against in 2025? The sample size is low. What about 2024 against NC State when he was at Stanford? Anthony Belton was their LT and was a 2nd round pick last year. Bailey finished with 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles against them.

 

[heisenberg]

We'd have been picking #5 above NYG and CLE if we lost to Philly in week 18, period.

And if we had also lost to the giants a few weeks prior we'd be picking number one.
How awesome would it be if we could be selling that pick to the highest bidder at the combine right now.

water under the bridge at this point.

 

[RedWolf]

Chase Young is a stud. He had 10 sacks in 12 games (PFF credited him with 12) and was top 30 in pressures despite missing 5 games.

But not with us. I guess he is growing up some

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

I think Bailey is crafty with his footwork to setup his angles to attack the QB after his speed rush...but that's his method for mitigating average bend. I do worry that craftier OT's can figure out how to make that more difficult.

Cause his burst upfield isn't engaging with the OT, he's keeping a little distance so he can take a wider last hard plant step away from his frame and then burst off that. He's more 90 degrees than someone who can dip tightly around an OT that's not deep enough. I do wonder if NFL OT's figure out a way to combat his footwork, such as a slightly angled kick step to get closer to Bailey's body. I'm just spitballing here trying to project difficulties going from College OT's to NFL OT's.

I do think Bailey can develop further. I think it's possible for him to develop a fiercer bull rush. But that's a "What If". We're still projecting. In terms of sudden violent power. Reese has a better sudden shock he's given OL when attacking their shoulder to turn them. And Reese is raw as hell as a pass rusher. He's just naturally gifted so the "What If" seems a bit more likely projecting for him.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

KDawg and anyone else who has studied him:

RT Francis Mauigoa, do people think he's actually a Top 5 pick?

 

[peanut0862]

I'm not going to get to upset if we draft non premium positions players if we can get Sonny Styles or Downs. Both play well against the run and pass and our D is light years behind or offense and it would be cool to have another Sonny to cheer for

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

And if we had also lost to the giants a few weeks prior we'd be picking number one.
How awesome would it be if we could be selling that pick to the highest bidder at the combine right now.

water under the bridge at this point.

Ah so that is the main water under the bridge, yes those are really butterfly effect things.

I am willing to look at last five minutes of game events and say “if only” and similarly here, week 18 it was all or mostly written when Josh Johnson beat the Eagles…

So yeah I think we can truly say we could easily have had no. 5. I see how we could have had no.1 and yes it would have been great, but those scenarios are there every year. There are probably other simple chains which give others no.1. I would stick to wk18 regrets only, gotta have some filter!

 

[bowhunter]

He never said that.

j/k Don't pay me no nevermind. Although I could see him (Madden) saying that!

 

[KDawg]

Chase Young is a stud. He had 10 sacks in 12 games (PFF credited him with 12) and was top 30 in pressures despite missing 5 games.

On Bailey, the reason the majority of this board loves him is because he has elite athletic traits (his first step would be considered elite in the NFL), has multiple pass rush moves, has both the counting (sacks) and advanced stats (pressure rate) over 2 seasons of play for different teams and is smart/plays with a nonstop motor. Is having average bend a death knell as a pass rusher? No. James Pierce had 10.5 sacks as a rookie in a part time role with similar traits (including the average bend) but a 10 cent head and a questionable motor.

You are saying "he got beat by good tackles regularly." 1) Hustle sacks are still sacks & 2) How is "regularly" a fair word to use here? How many good tackles did he go against in 2025? The sample size is low. What about 2024 against NC State when he was at Stanford? Anthony Belton was their LT and was a 2nd round pick last year. Bailey finished with 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles against them.

Chase Young became a stud after a roller coaster start. But I meant for us - not for someone else.

Bailey - agree - first step is elite. Spin move is elite. I don’t think he has a great set of pass rush moves. He certainly tried a bunch, but he doesn’t have a ton of success with all of them against quality competition. Agree on the motor.

Hustle sacks are sacks but not the kind of sacks you want your edge rushers in the NFL to be making routinely. It means there are various issues. You want to see these edges on film winning against quality competition decisively. Not dancing around and eventually chasing down the QB because a tackle got bored.

Regularly is a fair word - Iheanacho, Lomu and Fano, arguably the three best tackles he played, neutralized him.

So the good tackles he played against beat him regularly in 2025.

Bailey, to me, is a projection player. If you take him in the top 10 it’s because you’re betting on his traits and desire to be great. I don’t know him personally, so I can’t speak on that. He has the tool box, but he needs to continue to grow. If he is the type of guy that is going to outwork everyone else I can see teams betting on him. Hes a great prospect. I don’t think he’s as great of a player as people say based on his performances against top competition.

But I DO think he can get to greatness.

 

[philibusters]

KDawg and anyone else who has studied him:

RT Francis Mauigoa, do people think he's actually a Top 5 pick?

I have not watched Mauigoa, but I listen to three NFL Draft podcasts. I have heard teh Daftondraft guys talk about him a lot and they think he is like Will Campbell. As a guard prospect hes one of the top prospects in this class. As a tackle prospect he is probably down a tier because of the lack of ideal length and width; however since he is still arguably the best tackle prospect in the class he'll likely go in the top 10 despite being a tier below Love, Styles, Reese, Downs, and Tate.

 

[skinsinparadise]

 

[skinsinparadise]

Watching this his agility looks pretty darn good. Quite a few skip the shuttle or 3 cone, I know because I compile those combine stats every year and often less than half do those ones.

College football Freaks List 2025: Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith tops a list of 101

The 2025 Freaks List is here. College football is close!

www.nytimes.com

College football Freaks List 2025:​

David Bailey, Texas Tech, outside linebacker​

One of the many big gets by the Red Raiders in the portal this offseason, Bailey had a combined 22.5 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks in his three seasons at Stanford. He is PFF’s highest-rated returning edge player after grading out at 90.9 as a junior in 2024. Bailey bench pressed 405 pounds and squatted 550. He has rare speed for a guy at 6-3, 250, having hit 22.16 mph.

 

[skinsinparadise]

But not with us. I guess he is growing up some

Chase had a very good rookie year, that injury his 2nd season was very serious, its taking him quite some time to regain form.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Bailey all about ‘psychology’​

Meanwhile, Bailey isn’t relying only on his considerable athleticism. He’s also ready to work the mental angle.

At Stanford, Bailey graduated in three years with a degree in Science, Technology and Society before transferring to Texas Tech for the 2025 season. If he could go back, though, Bailey would have changed his focus.

“I took a couple of psychology classes,” said Bailey of his time in Palo Alto. “If I could do it all over again, I would probably major in psychology or neuroscience. I had a lot of fun in my psychology classes, just learning about human behavior, things in general about the human mind.”

Landing One of These Premier Pass Rushers Could Lead to a Super Bowl Win

Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. and Texas Tech’s David Bailey bring a ‘kill-all mentality’ and psychological edge to sacking the quarterback.

www.si.com

 

[Ashburn Dave]

Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

We're at 7 and we never want to look back since we can't change it. Eyes forward on the prize at 7.

I will ❤️ it if Love is our consolation prize. We would have a top 5 offense and with Whitt gone, our defense will good enough to compete.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I think the main issue for picking 7 is it removes the idea that for sure you are getting a pass rusher early in this draft so it puts the onus on FA. Last off season, Peters did squat for the pass rush in Fa, we assumed the draft would address it but it didn't. So I doubt he doubles down on that approach again.

 

[philibusters]

I think the main issue for picking 7 is it removes the idea that for sure you are getting a pass rusher early in this draft so it puts the onus on FA. Last off season, Peters did squat for the pass rush in Fa, we assumed the draft would address it but it didn't. So I doubt he doubles down on that approach again.

I responded to that earlier, but I think the Giants and the Browns probably are not taking an Edge (though you never know). To me if the three pass rushers go it is going to be the Jets, Cardinals, and Titans and in that regards we are not that different than if we were picking 5.