The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[heisenberg]

I think there is a very high likelihood that we are choosing between Styles, Love, maybe Downs, and less likely, Tate.

I kinda wish the draft came before free agency.

Most positions we can afford to double up on but as much as we need an elite running back it'd be crazy to sign one of the top backs available and then draft love.

If draft day comes and we have signed someone like hall or ettiene and then the best player available is a tackle or love and we have to reach it'll suck.
Praying someone like Reese, downs or Bailey slide to 7 so that doesn't happen.

 

[DWinzit]

I watched Conner Lew, the 6'2", 300-pound center from Auburn, in his games against Georgia and Texas A&M. Against Georgia he saw a lot of Christian Miller, and against Texas A&M he matched up frequently with Albert Regis, so he was consistently going against NFL-caliber defensive linemen.

Run Blocking: Lew is a good run blocker, but he is not physically imposing. His biggest strength in the run game is climbing to the second level. His pacing is fantastic. He keeps a stable base in space and almost always arrives under control. When climbing to linebackers, he consistently reaches his target and makes clean contact. The issue is what happens after contact. He does not handle punches particularly well, and strong linebackers like CJ Allen (a borderline first-round prospect) can disengage once they lock onto him. He almost always gets there, but he doesn’t always sustain against higher-end athletes. He is not a displacement player. Even on double teams, he doesn’t move defenders much. You’ll see the guard engaged on a defensive tackle and Lew come in to assist, but the defensive tackle barely moves. He doesn’t have particularly strong hands or grip strength. Against stronger defensive linemen like Christian Miller, he can be stacked and locked out because he doesn’t generate a lot of knock-back power.

That said, he does a lot of things well. His hand placement is excellent — consistently inside the breastplate. His hips are flexible, and he does a great job swiveling and sealing run lanes by getting his hips around and positioning his body between the defender and the ball. His feet are good, and he has an explosive first step. His run-game anchor is solid — not elite, but good enough. He can bend like a center should; when force is applied to his chest, his upper body can give without his lower body losing its base. Even when Christian Miller stacked him, it was more about Miller’s strength and length than Lew completely losing.

Pass Blocking: For someone who isn’t physically dominant, his pass protection anchor is impressive. He uses a jump set, which is common for smaller interior linemen, and he anchors very well. He absorbs force in his upper body while keeping his lower body stable, which allows him to withstand speed-to-power attempts. He shows the same good hand placement in pass pro and can quickly re-establish his hands if initially knocked off. It is very difficult to convert speed to power on him. CJ Allen had two reps where he got a running four-yard head start and still could not move Lew. Those were impressive anchor reps. He did give up a sack against Texas A&M when he failed to sustain the block — I don’t recall the exact move used to disengage — but the initial contact was clean. Even his losses are not quick losses. He doesn’t get beaten immediately off the snap. He has great spacing with both guards and does not over or under set except on one snap where he overset. For all taht I said in the run blocking about him being great in space, he missed Taurean York on a screen pass and York made a tackle for a slightly loss, but the issue was Lew got his head around a tad slow and York diagnosed that play really fast.

Overall: Lew is a good center prospect as long as you’re comfortable with a player who is not physically imposing. He’s solid in both the run and pass game. He climbs well, anchors well, and plays with clean technique. The main limitation is displacement. If your run scheme requires consistent movement at the point of attack and vertical push from the center, he may not be the ideal fit. But if you value stability, technique, second-level efficiency, and pass protection reliability, he projects as a quality NFL center. His lack of size means he may not have the verstaility to play Guard. It looks like he will get drafted in the 3rd or 4th round so without a 4th round pick hes another player we would have to use pick 71 which would be okay but not good value and probably not a wise pick considering center is not an immediate need. At 145 he'd be a nice value, but the odds are he'll be gone by then. Further even if he is a good value, given center is not a need and he may lack Guard verstiality and we only have 5 picks, I doubt we take him, but he is a nice player.

Here is the first quarter or so of the video I watched....

You have really been kicking butt with all of your breakdowns, love it!

I feel that it would be the teams best interest to draft a C that can backup Biadasz and compete to supplant him next season. The ability to play G would of course be a big bonus. The problem we face is the lack of picks. I can't wait for the day we can just draft for BPA including taking development players.

So I did a quick review of C's. I found most of the top guys excel in pass blocking but meh in the run game. Based on direction the offense sounds like it is going I wonder if we need a more run savvy player. I found one guy that I really like that is good run and pass blocking and will probably get drafted around the 4th round. He hits most of the criteria I like - he is from Iowa, I like all OL from Iowa lol, 2 time Iowa lineman of the year, he is athletic (4.9 40 ex bball player and DE) durable (26 straight games playing every offensive snap), good size (6'3" 302...I don't know arm length but they aren't gator length), good work ethic, when run blocking he finishes in nasty (love that), smart (switched from DE to starting C in one spring), strong (squats 700 LBs, 425 LB bench ).

 

[Conn]

I kinda wish the draft came before free agency.

Most positions we can afford to double up on but as much as we need an elite running back it'd be crazy to sign one of the top backs available and then draft love.

If draft day comes and we have signed someone like hall or ettiene and then the best player available is a tackle or love and we have to reach it'll suck.
Praying someone like Reese, downs or Bailey slide to 7 so that doesn't happen.

Draft before FA happened I think once in the modern era, maybe it was the latest CBA negotiation year? Or during Covid? It was awesome.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Taking injury out of the equation, who has the lowest floor to you? Feels like Boston to me because he is the worst of the bunch when it comes to separation.

Another Q on him is can you have him play big slot? Would he be better there vs on the outside?

All of them have high floors IMO. Their ceilings are all different IMO. But I want to see all of them at the combine before I land on a full opinion. At the moment, I'd be surprised if any of the 4 were busts, but if I were forced to say one is more likely to bust I'd say Tyson but I don't think he will.

Ceilings

Lemon -- St. Brown type that can play Z.
Tyson -- Diggs -- first level-2nd level, quick seperation
Tate -- Devonte Smith-Adams, sick catch radius, sick hands
Boston -- 1st level-2nd level -- red zone, tone setter who can block

As to Boston I think he's a decent seperator on the first and 2nd level especially in between the numbers and actually in short spaces like in the end zone.

Where he struggles seperating IMO is deep, and sort of 2nd level out routes. And they tried him quite a bit on those routes. And its not like he fails on them. He makes catches with corners draped on him. But I can see the idea of hey that's not always going to work in the NFL. And maybe so. But he can seperate IMO on the first-2nd level. And he's physical enough at the catch point that he can make some plays down the field, too. He's sort of like the fantasy this coaching staff has about Noah Brown, if Noah was actually good.

He isn't the best seperator. But he's not a lost puppy on that front either. 90 PFF grade against man. His seperation depends on context. And where he doesn't seperate hot, he can make enough plays with his physicality and hands.

I would trust all 4 of these guys in the end zone for different reasons but if I had to pick one of those 4, I'd go with Boston as to being an end zone-red zone threat.

I digested some of the takes with the draft media todayon Boston, seems like they are more all over the place on him versus the other three Wrs. Some echo my point and some don't. But for me bottom line KDawg echoes my take so case closed.

 

[skinsinparadise]

PFF new mock, funky

2. New York Jets: S Caleb Downs, Ohio State​

Downs notched an 85.0-plus PFF overall grade in each of the past three seasons and is firmly in the conversation as the best overall player in this draft. Positional value will determine when he ultimately comes off the board, but look back at the 2022 NFL Draft and consider how much earlier Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton would go in a redo.

3. Arizona Cardinals: EDGE David Bailey, Texas Tech​

One of the hottest debates of draft season will center on whether Bailey or Miami edge defender Rueben Bain Jr. should be the first edge defender selected. Both are excellent prospects, but Bailey gets the nod after producing a 93.8 PFF pass-rush grade in 2025.

4. Tennessee Titans: EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., Miami (FL)​

The Titans are in an ideal position to let the board come to them and take the best player available, which in this scenario is Bain. He generated an outstanding 23.5% PFF pass-rush win rate in 2025 and offers the versatility to kick inside as an interior rusher.

5. New York Giants: LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State​

While I agree with the recent declaration from multiple draft analysts that Ohio State’s Arvell Reese is a better prospect as a linebacker than an edge defender, I think his teammate is the best linebacker in this draft class. Styles' grading profile is similar to that of San Francisco 49ers star linebacker Fred Warner from his BYU days, and he could easily be a decade-long NFL starter.

6. Cleveland Browns: WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State​

The Browns will likely address their offense early in the 2026 NFL Draft, perhaps with either a pass catcher or an offensive lineman. Tate has the size and skill set to be an elite X receiver at the next level after averaging 3.02 yards per route run, catching 85.7% of his contested targets and producing a 0.0% drop rate in 2025.

7. Washington Commanders: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame​

An edge defender would be a strong consideration here for the Commanders, and they’d likely sprint the card in for either Rueben Bain Jr. or David Bailey. However, there’s something to be said for adding an elite talent if one falls. Love, who earned PFF overall grades above 90.0 in each of the past two seasons, could pair Jayden Daniels to give the Commanders their version of the Baltimore Ravens‘ rushing attack featuring Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

8. New Orleans Saints: EDGE Cashius Howell, Texas A&M​

The Saints could go in several directions here, but Howell makes sense because of the class' drop-off at edge defender after him. He earned a 90.3 PFF overall grade and produced a 19.9% PFF pass-rush win rate in 2025, and he could form a formidable duo with Chase Young in New Orleans.

9. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Makai Lemon, USC​

After making some improvements to their offensive line over the past couple of drafts, the Chiefs now have a top-10 pick to try to give Patrick Mahomes his best wide receiver since Tyreek Hill. Lemon averaged 3.13 yards per route run and dropped just 2.5% of the catchable targets thrown his way this past season.

10. Cincinnati Bengals: OL Francis Mauigoa, Miami (FL)​

The Bengals could look to address their defensive woes in Round 1, especially if positional value causes safety Caleb Downs to fall to this spot, but with the way this mock draft has played out, an offensive lineman makes a lot of sense. Mauigoa spent the past three seasons at right tackle but could easily kick inside to guard and start immediately. He is coming off an 85.8 PFF pass-blocking grade on true pass sets in 2025.

11. Miami Dolphins: WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State​

The Dolphins are releasing Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle has been the subject of trade rumors over the past year. Even if Waddle sticks around, this is a good opportunity for the Dolphins to secure another top receiving talent. Tyson earned an 89.0 PFF overall grade against man coverage and averaged 2.37 yards per route run in 2025.

12. Dallas Cowboys: LB Arvell Reese, Ohio State​

There’s a lot to like about Reese as an off-ball linebacker, and he earned an 86.5 PFF run-defense grade in 2025. His average depth of tackle against the run was just 1.9 yards downfield, and he figures to test well during the pre-draft process.

2026 Three-Round NFL Mock Draft: Jets pick Caleb Downs, Rams find Stafford's successor

The Jets load up on defense in Round 1, while the Rams end their night by picking Matthew Stafford's successor.

www.pff.com

 

[philibusters]

In that draft scenario I would want Arvell Reese over Love. It would really suck if the Cowboys got Reese at 12. That feels like the Micah Parson thing all over again.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I kinda wish the draft came before free agency.

Most positions we can afford to double up on but as much as we need an elite running back it'd be crazy to sign one of the top backs available and then draft love.

If draft day comes and we have signed someone like hall or ettiene and then the best player available is a tackle or love and we have to reach it'll suck.
Praying someone like Reese, downs or Bailey slide to 7 so that doesn't happen.

Combine to me is an X factor both as to seperating some of these players and also as for rumors as to who digs whom which granted isn't always correct but sometimes gives you a hint.

But precombine feels like this.

Raiders -- QB

Jets -- Bains or Bailey or Reese

Cardinals -- Mauigoa

Titans -- Bains or Bailey or Reese

Giants -- Mauigoa or Downs or Tate

Browns -- Tate or Tyson or Lemon or maybe even Boston

so lets run two different scenarios

Jets: Reese
Cardinals: Mauigoa
Titans -- Bain
Giants -- Downs
Browns -- Tate

That leaves Bailey

if I ran another I think it would just be a different edge-LB going. So in short, I think someone among Bain, Bailey, Reese will land at 7.

Thinking about it some more. I think there is a good chance Tate or whomever teams deem to be the top WR will be gone by 7. I don't see the WR getting past both the Giants and the Browns. I also don't see Bains, Bailey, Reese all going before 7 factoring the needs of these teams. I do buy that Downs could be a wildcard and go earlier than expected. Hard call. I suspect he won't after the combine. I think the combine will hurt him like it did Kyle Hamilton. Personally I wouldn't care. But I think Downs having a pedestrian combine might convince teams not to take him super early.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Judging by rumors, Love is coveted by both the Saints and the Chiefs. If that's true, I'd guess Washington if they have designs on him would keep it super close to the vest.

 

[36ST21]

Saints, you say? Ricky Williams Part Deaux would be intriguing.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Some DT stats

 

[HTTR]

PFF new mock, funky

2. New York Jets: S Caleb Downs, Ohio State​

Downs notched an 85.0-plus PFF overall grade in each of the past three seasons and is firmly in the conversation as the best overall player in this draft. Positional value will determine when he ultimately comes off the board, but look back at the 2022 NFL Draft and consider how much earlier Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton would go in a redo.

3. Arizona Cardinals: EDGE David Bailey, Texas Tech​

One of the hottest debates of draft season will center on whether Bailey or Miami edge defender Rueben Bain Jr. should be the first edge defender selected. Both are excellent prospects, but Bailey gets the nod after producing a 93.8 PFF pass-rush grade in 2025.

4. Tennessee Titans: EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., Miami (FL)​

The Titans are in an ideal position to let the board come to them and take the best player available, which in this scenario is Bain. He generated an outstanding 23.5% PFF pass-rush win rate in 2025 and offers the versatility to kick inside as an interior rusher.

5. New York Giants: LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State​

While I agree with the recent declaration from multiple draft analysts that Ohio State’s Arvell Reese is a better prospect as a linebacker than an edge defender, I think his teammate is the best linebacker in this draft class. Styles' grading profile is similar to that of San Francisco 49ers star linebacker Fred Warner from his BYU days, and he could easily be a decade-long NFL starter.

6. Cleveland Browns: WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State​

The Browns will likely address their offense early in the 2026 NFL Draft, perhaps with either a pass catcher or an offensive lineman. Tate has the size and skill set to be an elite X receiver at the next level after averaging 3.02 yards per route run, catching 85.7% of his contested targets and producing a 0.0% drop rate in 2025.

7. Washington Commanders: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame​

An edge defender would be a strong consideration here for the Commanders, and they’d likely sprint the card in for either Rueben Bain Jr. or David Bailey. However, there’s something to be said for adding an elite talent if one falls. Love, who earned PFF overall grades above 90.0 in each of the past two seasons, could pair Jayden Daniels to give the Commanders their version of the Baltimore Ravens‘ rushing attack featuring Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

8. New Orleans Saints: EDGE Cashius Howell, Texas A&M​

The Saints could go in several directions here, but Howell makes sense because of the class' drop-off at edge defender after him. He earned a 90.3 PFF overall grade and produced a 19.9% PFF pass-rush win rate in 2025, and he could form a formidable duo with Chase Young in New Orleans.

9. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Makai Lemon, USC​

After making some improvements to their offensive line over the past couple of drafts, the Chiefs now have a top-10 pick to try to give Patrick Mahomes his best wide receiver since Tyreek Hill. Lemon averaged 3.13 yards per route run and dropped just 2.5% of the catchable targets thrown his way this past season.

10. Cincinnati Bengals: OL Francis Mauigoa, Miami (FL)​

The Bengals could look to address their defensive woes in Round 1, especially if positional value causes safety Caleb Downs to fall to this spot, but with the way this mock draft has played out, an offensive lineman makes a lot of sense. Mauigoa spent the past three seasons at right tackle but could easily kick inside to guard and start immediately. He is coming off an 85.8 PFF pass-blocking grade on true pass sets in 2025.

11. Miami Dolphins: WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State​

The Dolphins are releasing Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle has been the subject of trade rumors over the past year. Even if Waddle sticks around, this is a good opportunity for the Dolphins to secure another top receiving talent. Tyson earned an 89.0 PFF overall grade against man coverage and averaged 2.37 yards per route run in 2025.

12. Dallas Cowboys: LB Arvell Reese, Ohio State​

There’s a lot to like about Reese as an off-ball linebacker, and he earned an 86.5 PFF run-defense grade in 2025. His average depth of tackle against the run was just 1.9 yards downfield, and he figures to test well during the pre-draft process.

2026 Three-Round NFL Mock Draft: Jets pick Caleb Downs, Rams find Stafford's successor

The Jets load up on defense in Round 1, while the Rams end their night by picking Matthew Stafford's successor.

www.pff.com

Feeling more and more like Downs is out of reach 😞 but I’d be more than happy taking Love if it falls this way

 

[Bulldog]

A couple of comments:

1. No one can really predict what the New York Jets are going to do. With no quarterback and an offense that is sputtering the team drafting a safety would be something to consider given how they operate, but who knows? The organization just like the Titans is so bad they are unpredictable.

2. I knew winning those final games coming down the stretch was going to bite us. As I expected, we see mocks now where the 'ideal' group of 2-3 players we could use most on our 2026 roster are now anticipated to be going to other teams, teams that at 3-12 we had a very good chance of beating out for those spots.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Caught up with a McShay podcast. He said from talking to sources he trusts in different front offices.

A. Tate is the #1 WR for most. Lemon and Tyson neck and neck for #2. And some other WRs not far off from that group.

B. Some like Bailey > Reese. Bailey seems to be beloved with who he talked to in the NFL. With Reese some concerns about him being more of a projection.

 

[KDawg]

Caught up with a McShay podcast. He said from talking to sources he trusts in different front offices.

A. Tate is the #1 WR for most. Lemon and Tyson neck and neck for #2. And some other WRs not far off from that group.

B. Some like Bailey > Reese. Bailey seems to be beloved with who he talked to in the NFL. With Reese some concerns about him being more of a projection.

I think I’m aligned with A. B I couldn’t be in further disagreement with. I actually think it is exactly the opposite.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I think I’m aligned with A. B I couldn’t be in further disagreement with. I actually think it is exactly the opposite.

If you don't want Bailey at 7 sounds like based on what McShay is hearing, you are likely in luck, sounds like he will be gone.

though I gather the combine might be a needle mover on some of these prospects.

 

[Primus Porcus]

NY is in a weird position given their draft pick. You can never have too many edge rushers, but they really don't need an edge. They think they're happy at QB. So, maybe T makes sense? They could go WR, CB, or S, too though I'm not sure the value is really there.

Any reason why they wouldn’t take Love?

 

[KDawg]

If you don't want Bailey at 7 sounds like based on what McShay is hearing, you are likely in luck, sounds like he will be gone.

though I gather the combine might be a needle mover on some of these prospects.

It’s not necessarily that I don’t want him - I think he is a project that wouldn’t particularly be what we need NOW but I think he has the pass rush chops to be a pretty good NFL player down the line.

But, to your point, of the crop of guys being discussed for our pick, I think he would be the one I’d be most disappointed it. But I do think his pass rush chops make him a legit NFL prospect. So I can’t say I’d be totally let down.

Any reason why they wouldn’t take Love?

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets drafted you at 2

 

[Primus Porcus]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets drafted you at 2

That would be the worst draft pick in history

 

[philibusters]

I feel like the Jets are in complete rebuilding build and while they wouldn't say it out loud they probably know that they are not really competitive unil the 2028 season. They traded two of their best players away in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams for 3 first round picks and 1 second round pick. I think the fact that they got rid of Sauce and Quinnen Williams is evidence ofthey realize they won't be competitive right away--as they didn't think the prime of those two would not necessarily mesh with their timeline. I feel like they are going to be looking for foundational pieces like Edge, Tackle, DT, WR, Corner rather than finishing pieces like RB.

 

[Riggo44]

That would be the worst draft pick in history

"It's clear the Jets have no idea what the draft is for."

- Mel Kiper Jr.