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The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall
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Always Commander Never Captain
The Free Agent Vet
Watching their match-up now.
Play sequence, in order, when Moore and Lemon are matched up (not counting pass plays where Lemon's role is blocking)
- No target, Lemon in slot with a right behind Moore creating traffic (should he have been there?), Moore gives up the quick slant inside release to Lemon who has a step.
- No target, Lemon in slot, Moore again gives up the quick slant inside release to Lemon. Throwing window was there but closed quickly as the TE and Lemon are soon in the same space.
- No target, Lemon is outwide, Moore plays 7 yards off and does slide shuffle technique as Lemon tries to take him deep. Moore peels off to tackle the TE left open underneath
- No target, Lemon is basically an in-line TE, chips the Edge and Moore is just waiting for him once Lemon releases
- No target, Lemon in slot, Moore doesn't let him get into a route...unless an awkward 2 step hitch was the route
- No target, Lemon is outwide, Moore in press-bail and smothers the fade route
- Catch (1 yard), Lemon in motion to slot behind the TE who blocks Moore immediately, Screen to Lemon, gain of 1 yard
- Catch (28 yards...I think), Lemon is inside slot, does a stutter step quick slant, Moore has a bad step in Press, Lemon catches the ball 4 yards past the LoS with some separation and a diving Moore can't bring him down, he runs the other 24 yards as YAC.
- No target, Lemon in slot, does a whip route after all those quick slants, Moore is physical and blankets all parts of the whip route
- No target, Lemon in wide slot, tries to run to the sticks and cut in, but Moore is getting really physical, Lemon is knocked off the route and stalled out
- No target, Lemon out wide, tries a stutter step and go, Moore is physical and stops Lemon's stride...looks like Moore probably could have gotten flagged for hands to the face
- No target, Lemon out wide, tries to threaten vertical and stop at the sticks but it doesn't fool Moore
- No target, Lemon in slot...did I mention how physical Moore is getting? That's a hard punch in press that completely knocks Lemon off his step, can't tell if it's supposed to be an quick-slant-to-in-route or a speed-in route, but whatever it was it was shut down
- No target, Lemon in slot, quick slant, Moore mirrors it
- Target (incomplete), Lemon in slot, quick slant...Moore gets physical at 1 yard and prevents Lemon from getting into his route. QB scrambles, Lemon sees it and starts moving horizontally to get open but Moore is all over a bad throw
- No target, Lemon in slot, quick slant again, Moore with hands on during press and no separation
- No target, Lemon in slot, Moore in press, might be a shallow cross but Lemon stops as he starts to run into the LB sitting there
- No target, Lemon in slot, looks to be doing outside release to a vertical route but Moore jabs him hard and then rides him all the way to the sideline (this was ugly for Lemon)
- No target, Lemon in-line TE again...chips, releases, but Moore is waiting
- No target (2pt Conversion), Lemon outside, tries a fade, unclear who wins this rep (QB doesn't look)
- No target, Lemon in slot, tries a whip route, Moore is on it
(Non-matchup play) Lemon with an endaround trick play (he's looking to throw it)...and fumbles it
- No target, 4th and inches, QB sneak look to QB Bootleg, Lemon tries to engage hard with Moore to sell it but can't release out as Moore just holds on
- No target, Lemon in slot, hard plant to show outside release but then tries to go vertical on inside of Moore. Doesn't work and can't get past him
- No target, Lemon in close slot, tries what might be a post(?), but how he gets to that is awkward and doesn't sell anything
- No target, Lemon in slot, another quick slant, Moore seems to want to give up the inside move here (1:55 left in a 10 point game), least physical Moore has been since the 2nd quarter
Are we really sure NFL corners are like College corners and won't realize how to play him? I mean, once the book is out on somebody, the whole NFL starts to catch on. None of his vertical routes looked good against Press, they were all just awkward, ineffective, or ugly.
This cemented my opinion of Lemon. You're not a 1st rounder if you can't handle Press Coverage. Which was the issue with Jahan Dotson too. I thought Josh Doctson did better against college press than this (but still suspect), yet he kept getting bodied by physical corners in the NFL as they never let him open up his stride. I get it, Lemon is a slot only with aDoT like Rashee Rice. Lots of motion, releases schemed open with bunch sets, rubs etc can make him functional. But some teams will just have Lemon's number and he won't be able to do anything. We're looking at WR2 at best, probably WR3 because he's matchup dependant.
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Yeah for me the prize is Tyson. He reminds me of Gibbs. The way he moves just looks completely different. When Gibbs runs I don’t think anyone else really looks like him. That’s how I feel about Tyson’s movement. He has to stay healthy and clean up the drops though. I’ll concede those points.
method man
The Starter
I think someone posted that his pressure rate fell from 20%+ to 15% when facing better competition. I'd venture to guess 15% is on par or better than a number of the other edge rushers in this class (and that factoring in all the easy matchups those second and third tier edge rushers had).
I went back to 2024 and took a look at his matchups. His one standout matchup I recognize would have been against Anthony Belton. I don't know how much he went against him but he had 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles in that game
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He did. Fano and iheanchor handled him.
DJ is very likely talking about some other guys in class, probably not as high end. And he’s right in that case. He worked a lot of those lower round talents.
philibusters
The 1st Round Pick
Akeem Mesidor vs Ohio State – Full Game Thoughts
I watched the entire Ohio State game and based on that one matchup, here’s where I land on Akeem Mesidor.
Pass Rush
Traits-wise, there’s real intrigue.
For a 270-pound edge, Mesidor is legitimately bendy. Throughout the game there were probably 5–6 snaps where he turned a tight corner. A couple were pursuit reps against the run, but 3–4 came as a true pass rusher. His ankle and hip flexibility stand out for a bigger body. He can flatten. He’s actually more effective turning the corner against guards than tackles, but he can do both. That flexibility translates inside when he reduces.
Lateral Quickness
He has good lateral agility. When tackles overset, he can cross face and win inside. He does this both from the edge and when aligned interior in this game. That inside counter is real.Get-Off & Motor
Get-off is decent — not elite. He’s not exploding off the ball in a way that stresses tackles immediately, but it’s good enough.
Motor runs hot. If he doesn’t win clean, he keeps working.
The Issue: Power
For a 270-pound player, the power is underwhelming. There are a couple reps against Austin Sierveld where he nudges the pocket and walks a tackle back a step or two. But he never pushes the pocket back against Philip Daniels. And there are no dominant speed-to-power reps against either Tackle. And there are multiple snaps where he just gets stonewalled including against Sierveld. That’s disappointing for his size.Why?
- He plays a bit high.
- When he sinks better, he sometimes leads with his head.
- His feet can stop on contact.
- There’s not consistent hip roll.
Run Defense
This is where the lack of pop shows up clearly. There is no real violence in his hands. Offensive linemen are able to:
- Get into his chest
- Control him
- Move him more than he moves them
That said:
- He’s not terrible against the run.
- He’s serviceable.
- The motor compensates.
Overall Projection
The traits are interesting:- Bendy for 270
- Good ankle/hip flexibility
- Lateral quickness to counter inside
- Hot motor
If he can:
- Improve pad level
- Keep his feet driving through contact
- Add real lower-half strength
- Develop hand violence
Right now, I see him an immediate rotation guy in Year 1 and a Year 2 projection as a solid #2 edge — something in the Dorance Armstrong range. Not a dominant force, but a starting caliber player who gives you steady production. If the power never comes, his ceiling is as a #2 edge. If it does--which seems unlikely given his age--he could really good. From a Commanders standpoint we would likely need to trade back for him to be a realistic option. Like if we traded pick 7 for picks 24 and 39 he would be option at a 24 (though maybe not ideal) and an ideal option at 39 from a value perspective. I would probably put him in the same range (though he is a bit older) as Donovan Ezeriruaku who went 44 to the Cowboys last year (though I think this draft class is a tad weaker, but I think the Cowboys got value at 44 last year)
I subscribe to the DaftonDraft substack so I have access to the entire vidoes, but they usually post the first 15 minutes of the game videos (an entire game is usually a 40 to 45 minute video) so he is the first third of the video I watched...
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philibusters
The 1st Round Pick
I would not go that far. Fano by PFF had his lowest graded game of the year 55 (his second lowest was 65) and Max Iheanchor had a 65 grade. Bailey had a 67 and 70 pass rush grade in those games along with 9 pressures (5 and 4). Just looking at PFF grades and pressure numbers without watching the games could be misleading, but first glance at those stats makes it look pretty even, maybe slightest of advantage to Bailey.
Maybe they shouldn't draft Tate because he was meh against The U. Maybe Terry is a scrub because he's had a bad game now and then against the Eagles where Q. Mitchell had his number. Tyson wasn't hot against Arizona before he got hurt.
Moore is a really good corner, he played a good game against Lemon. So what? It happens. In that same game he ended up with 75 yards.
I am not that worried about releases of a slot WR. it's often feast or famine if a corner presses in the slot. If the slot corner misses the jam, there is no safety net, outside corners have the boundary as in effect an extra defender, slot corners do not.
I'd be worried if Lemon plays soft just in general where he was more finesse than tough -- but that's not his game, he's a tough dude.
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Tyson the WR you mean reminds you of Gibbs the RB? If so you mean as to YAC?
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I watched. I saw. Not relying on PFF. So you can not go that far if you’d like. But I will.
He created some pressure against them but was mostly held in check and was dominated in the run game.
Always Commander Never Captain
The Free Agent Vet
Hmm...given he's an old prospect, that's a little worrying that he still needs a lot of improvement over tendencies/technique. Didn't realize his power was that much of an issue.
He's what, 25 years old?
philibusters
The 1st Round Pick
He hasn't turned 25 yet, but will be 25 by the time of the draft (his birthday is April 5th).
Most likely he'll never be a physical player. But he is still a good player with a solid motor. I like him. He does feel more of a 4-3 DE, than a 3-4 DE though. So assuming we are going to run an odd front on neutral downs, the fit isn't great.
I just rewatched the Bailey-Utah game. I think I am somewhere between KDawg and DJ-PFF on that game.
I don't think it was Bailey's best game but IMO not a bad one either. He was at a minimum disruptive and ended up with a sack. And made some run stops, too. But he wasn't dominant like he was in some other games.
Fano had a good series for some of that game where Bailey was overpursuing and Fano just made him arc around the QB, but then Bailey adjusted some with counters, had sort of a clean up sack turning inside on a play. And then followed that up going inside with a spin move that likely would have ended up with a sack again if not for their QB running back lol like 15 yards.
They doubled teamed him on some plays, you can see they respected him.
I don't think it was Bailey's best game but IMO not a bad one either. He was at a minimum disruptive and ended up with a sack. And made some run stops, too. But he wasn't dominant like he was in some other games.
Fano had a good series for some of that game where Bailey was overpursuing and Fano just made him arc around the QB, but then Bailey adjusted some with counters, had sort of a clean up sack turning inside on a play. And then followed that up going inside with a spin move that likely would have ended up with a sack again if not for their QB running back lol like 15 yards.
They doubled teamed him on some plays, you can see they respected him.
For example, Keldrick Faulk averages 11.6%. So Bailey's "bad games" at 15% is fine.
It's kind of the same point I've made for other players, I don't fret about being not as dominant against strong opposition, or being great in so many games and then having an off game against a dominant player on the other end -- that's kind of how it works in the NFL, too. You likely aren't dominating a game against Trent or Tunsil. Or Terry might be hot and cold going against Q. Mitchell, etc. The other dude gets paid to be great, too.
We can say why doesn't Terry dominate Q. Mitchell the way he can other corners. Well, sometimes he has his way with him, sometimes he doesn't. But it would equally be a red flag for Mitchell if Terry dominated him -- can you be a great player and be dominated by another great player? Yes, sometimes but it can't be a pattern. If Q. Mitchell continually got dominated by great WRs then he's not that good of a corner.
But playing good but not great against really good players -- that's not a red flag for me. Ditto having an occasional off game considering they all do.
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Yes. As a pass rusher I think Bailey is pretty good. I think I've pointed that out a few times.
But he is not dominant as a pass rusher against good talent. Which as you point out isn't terrible. But he's not generational.
Where I falter completely on Bailey is his anchor and ability to defend the run. Those are requirements in the NFL.
As a pass rusher he is NFL caliber.
He doesn't have the size to anchor that hot against the run. But he's pretty active in pursuit chasing down running backs and you can even see it in that Utah game.
But regardless, I want a dude who can scare the QB. Setting the edge isn't my primary concern. Especially in this defense the more I digest it.
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He plays with a good motor. I have him as a top 10 guy still. I don’t think I want him here. In this defense I think we need a guy who can rush and run defend. I don’t think we need an elite pass rusher, but we do need one who is very good who is at least good in run defense.
I don’t want a pure run defender without any pass rusher chops, either. This is where, I suppose, Bailey and Faulk are a bit even for me. And in retrospect I may prefer Bailey because if you’re going to be one or the other I prefer a pass rusher.
I've watched some more Tyson and Tate. More interviews, too.
I am defnitely firmly in the Tate > Tyson. But I do think its close. Sort of how I felt on ES about Maye > Daniels. I loved both even though many there took one side over the other. I think now I am Daniels over Maye which I know isn't in vogue after last season but will see.
Tyson seems like a good kid but there is something weird about him, tough to put my finger on it. lol, maybe its the hair and comes off a bit nerdy the way he talks but a weird version of nerdy. The quirky walking barefoot before games on the field. Non stop talking about being religious -- got no issue with him being religious, plenty players are but he doesn't stop talking about it like he's trying to sell people he is. Then you got the comments about he was lazy early in his career, watching video games all day but he snapped out of it. Then you got the injuries including a bad ACL one, so its not just nagging injuries. All the other stuff with Tyson downgrades him a little to me versus Tate before even watching them play. Tate as a dude, everything I read is a great guy, comes off normal in interviews to me, workaholic by reputation, serious -- been through a lot including losing his mom in a shooting.
As players Tyson is better in terms of being a quick seperator, and I love how he tempos his routes. But everything else to me is either a tie or favors Tate. Tate is the better run blocker (Tyson though not bad). Tate with softer hands (Tyson though makes some acrobatic catches), Tate the better contested catch guy. Tate with the better catch radius. They both have great body control but I'd give a slot nod to Tate. Tate the better deep threat. Neither hot with YAC, but Tate with slightly better numbers.
I am defnitely firmly in the Tate > Tyson. But I do think its close. Sort of how I felt on ES about Maye > Daniels. I loved both even though many there took one side over the other. I think now I am Daniels over Maye which I know isn't in vogue after last season but will see.
Tyson seems like a good kid but there is something weird about him, tough to put my finger on it. lol, maybe its the hair and comes off a bit nerdy the way he talks but a weird version of nerdy. The quirky walking barefoot before games on the field. Non stop talking about being religious -- got no issue with him being religious, plenty players are but he doesn't stop talking about it like he's trying to sell people he is. Then you got the comments about he was lazy early in his career, watching video games all day but he snapped out of it. Then you got the injuries including a bad ACL one, so its not just nagging injuries. All the other stuff with Tyson downgrades him a little to me versus Tate before even watching them play. Tate as a dude, everything I read is a great guy, comes off normal in interviews to me, workaholic by reputation, serious -- been through a lot including losing his mom in a shooting.
As players Tyson is better in terms of being a quick seperator, and I love how he tempos his routes. But everything else to me is either a tie or favors Tate. Tate is the better run blocker (Tyson though not bad). Tate with softer hands (Tyson though makes some acrobatic catches), Tate the better contested catch guy. Tate with the better catch radius. They both have great body control but I'd give a slot nod to Tate. Tate the better deep threat. Neither hot with YAC, but Tate with slightly better numbers.
Obviously, subjective either way so to each their own.
For me digesting that scheme, its set up where you often get one on ones, either because of sending more guys or stunts, etc. You want rushers who can win fast or are disruptive enough that the QB has to unload the ball faster than they'd like.
Bailey can also do the simulated pressure drill, they drop him in coverage from time to time.
Will see what he times in the combine but if he's as freakish as Feldman's freaks article suggest he is, to me he is VERY appealing in this scheme.
Always Commander Never Captain
The Free Agent Vet
I just started watching Avieon Terrell so I searched this thread for any talk on him and found your post referencing that video...how are they so high on him, how is he mocked now as a consensus 1st rounder. The tape is not good. Only watched parts of 2 games, but consistently late reacting to WR moves. I question his play strength against bigger WR's. I would not say he's tough against the run, more so average CB. The guy who questioned his Zone IQ is right, he doesn't have a feel for what's happening around him and just guesses. He gives up a lot of completions, sometimes touchdowns, to do...I don't know what he's doing. He's off guarding the flat, when nobody is there and the closest WR who just caught it is 10 yards behind him. It's like he didn't realize the WR went there and he should have dropped back a little more. He appears to gamble on his responsibilities, leaving guys uncovered.
It's rare to see him actually stick to a WR. His lack of size is notable imo. If he comes in at less than 5'11 with less than 31" arms, I wouldn't be surprised.
Both the games I saw were earlier in the season, so maybe the light bulb went on for him later. Maybe his later tape is just that damn good. But right now...wow, he was bad.
Edit: Just saw that he was marked as having 5 passes defensed in one of those games, must have happened after I stopped watching...so it's back to watching...and I just saw Terrell run to what I'm pretty sure was the wrong zone. Then a big miscommunication on a pick play gave up an easy 1st down, unclear who was at fault but not a good look for awareness.
Ok, he's starting to play a little better now.
I'm not sure what the zone assignments/responsibilities are for this Clemson defense. 2 WR on one side, the outside one runs a Post or an In route while the other runs a Quick Out. Both CB's routinely take the Quick Out in the flat leaving the Safety to run up from deep to cover the In route...but he's not making it there in time. Why are 2 CB's covering a Quick Out? In these occasions, Terrell is lined up over the outside WR whose about to catch something for a 1st down, it feels weird that he's never going with that WR, and instead doubles the Quick Out. Or maybe the other WR should drop, either way...another point of no communication.
Oof, opposing QB tore his Achilles. Terrell just racked up 2 PD's on throws by the backup QB. He ended the game with 5 PD's, I think it was really 4, as the WR already dropped one of them, but his better play came against the backup QB and also when he was lined up as an outside CB. His ability to cover the slot is a questionable. He did settle down and play better, but again...backup QB in a multi-score loss, they just wanted to keep things simple and get the QB's feet wet.
I do not see the same tape I saw with his older brother. I think Avieon Terrell is lacking in size. I think he's raw, I think he still has potential to develop into a better cover guy. Movement skills seem there, he's just late to react to WR moves and sometimes he steps wrong when the WR sets up his brek. He's not quite aware of everything around him.
I think he's a developmental guy. Unless his later season tape is just much better.
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