The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[Chris]

No more projects for me please. No more players that are relatively new position changers (McCaffrey, Medrano). No more players coming off serious injury histories that we can rehabilitate (Brown, Lattimore). To me those are luxury choices. This team just doesn’t have the luxury of using valuable resources at this point in the roster building process. It needs players that are competent and qualified to contribute now.

 

[HTTR]

No more projects for me please. No more players that are relatively new position changers (McCaffrey, Medrano). No more players coming off serious injury histories that we can rehabilitate (Brown, Lattimore). To me those are luxury choices. This team just doesn’t have the luxury of using valuable resources at this point in the roster building process. It needs players that are competent and qualified to contribute now.

I agree sorta, but I wouldn’t necessarily call them luxury choices, I would call them gambles. If they work out, it’s a chance to acquire talent below market value. Of course if they don’t work out, well unfortunately we see what can happen. But still, I wouldn’t want to rule out taking a chance on a player like this when the situation arises. Theoretically, some of them are going to hit, and if not you probably need a new GM. I’d love to just play it safe too, but sometimes you have to take risks to get ahead or in our case just to catch up.

Put another way, you don’t think we can afford to take chances, but I’m not sure we can afford not to.

 

[Chris]

I agree sorta, but I wouldn’t necessarily call them luxury choices, I would call them gambles. If they work out, it’s a chance to acquire talent below market value. Of course if they don’t work out, well unfortunately we see what can happen. But still, I wouldn’t want to rule out taking a chance on a player like this when the situation arises. Theoretically, some of them are going to hit, and if not you probably need a new GM. I’d love to just play it safe too, but sometimes you have to take risks to get ahead or in our case just to catch up.

Put another way, you don’t think we can afford to take chances, but I’m not sure we can afford not to.

I call them luxury picks because picks like those are best utilized when you are more or less set with enough established talent. This team is far from that, on the defensive side particularly.

A gamble is a roll of the dice. Intelligent gamblers only risk money they can afford to lose. This team is not in that position. (I realize this is an argument based highly on semantics though.) If they want to gamble then the 6th and 7th rounds are the place for that, not rounds 2-5 imo. I don’t really have an issue there. Earlier in the draft and in FA? This team just doesn’t have that ‘luxury’.

 

[Busch1724]

Counter argument, aren't all personnel decisions a gamble...especially draft picks.

 

[Chris]

Counter argument, aren't all personnel decisions a gamble...especially draft picks.

Indeed, that’s why I referenced semantics. But, some are more of a gamble than others. Two examples for me are signing players with an injury history that you don’t think will have that problem with you and drafting a player in the early rounds that has only played their current position for a short time.

 

[HTTR]

Indeed, that’s why I referenced semantics. But, some are more of a gamble than others. Two examples for me are signing players with an injury history that you don’t think will have that problem with you and drafting a player in the early rounds that has only played their current position for a short time.

Your Lattimore example was a gamble in the spirit of making a playoff run. I don’t mind that. Noah Brown otoh, there is no justification for whatsoever. Cannot disagree with that one. And perhaps they were hoping they wouldn’t need him anyway, because Luke, Lane, Debo, and Terry were enough. I get wanting a reliable veteran in the mix, but he was/is anything but reliable.
Anyway, the gambles admittedly for the most part haven’t worked out, but I think I just need a larger sample size on that before I want my GM to go all gun shy.

 

[Chris]

Your Lattimore example was a gamble in the spirit of making a playoff run. I don’t mind that. Noah Brown otoh, there is no justification for whatsoever. Cannot disagree with that one. And perhaps they were hoping they wouldn’t need him anyway, because Luke, Lane, Debo, and Terry were enough. I get wanting a reliable veteran in the mix, but he was/is anything but reliable.
Anyway, the gambles admittedly for the most part haven’t worked out, but I think I just need a larger sample size on that before I want my GM to go all gun shy.

I didn’t hate the Lattimore signing because of the reasoning, I hated it because of the player. Lattimore was injured when acquired and had already become a shell of his previous self for multiple seasons. I am not new to the Lattimore chorus, I was very vocal about the acquisition at the time it was made.

And I in no way want Peters to be gun shy. I just don’t want him to be too cute for school. Draft guys that are healthy and have a history of success at the position they play. Players that can come in and compete from the start to improve the roster now. I don’t think that is too much to ask.

 

[HTTR]

I didn’t hate the Lattimore signing because of the reasoning, I hated it because of the player. Lattimore was injured when acquired and had already become a shell of his previous self for multiple seasons. I am not new to the Lattimore chorus, I was very vocal about the acquisition at the time it was made.

And I in no way want Peters to be gun shy. I just don’t want him to be too cute for school. Draft guys that are healthy and have a history of success at the position they play. Players that can come in and compete from the start to improve the roster now. I don’t think that is too much to ask.

Yeah, I think you’re right that we are not far apart, and the difference is maybe semantics.

Luke and Medrano I agree were both bad picks, whether you want to call them projects or not. Luke not only was a reach, but had the feel of APs relationship with CMC playing into it. Medrano never made sense to me since the knock on him was that he was a bad tackler. That’s not gonna work regardless of what position you put them at on defense. At least that was a late pick. Luke probably should’ve been a later pick as well, I bet he would’ve dropped another round or so if we didn’t take him when we did.

 

[Canuck]

I'd trade back, other than Downs, at our pick is there a true stud at any position that we have a need at?

I believe most pundits think that this draft is solid, but lacking in true top end talent.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I get that, kind of a repetitive player.

Would that be similar to having Luke then drafted Lemon, who are both more slot players?

I think Lemon is plug and play starter at slot. McCaffrey feels like a backup slot-and OK backup Z.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

So I don't hear a lot of people talking about corner. Is that off the table for you guys in the first round? I think that Amos will be a stud. Having another lock down guy opposite of him would be something major also

I've got only one corner rated high enough so far but he's coming off an ACL tear (McCoy). The others I've got rated in the 20's-40's for pick range. So we'd need a trade down (such as Hood and Delane)

I'd trade back, other than Downs, at our pick is there a true stud at any position that we have a need at?

I believe most pundits think that this draft is solid, but lacking in true top end talent.

So we need blue chip talent. That's the most pressing need, second is position and scheme need. It could wind up being Love at #7 as the last Blue Chip talent.

I haven't looked at OL at all, and I'd really rather not draft one unless they profile as amazing talents at Guard. But that's another spot that could have blue chip possibility?

Safety, Guard, and RB at pick #7 isn't really as worth it for those positions. But Downs and Love are better prospects than much of the other first rounders that are at more worthwhile positions.

That said, we also don't really know yet how important Safety, Guard, and RB (of Love's skills) are in the scheme...or aren't.

For example Jayden Daniels obviously isn't like Drew Brees, but Drew Brees always played so much better when he had his elite pair of Guards in front of him. Likewise, is a safety like Downs desperately important in our new defense or just pretty useful to have?

 

[Chris]

For example Jayden Daniels obviously isn't like Drew Brees, but Drew Brees always played so much better when he had his elite pair of Guards in front of him.

How much of that was due to his height?

 

[KDawg]

I watched a bit more of David Bailey... I came away shocking myself with how I feel about him.

-Texas Tech uses him as a tight 5 a lot, which... for a 250 lb guy is interesting.

-He is worse against the run than I originally thought. He does a really poor job at block shedding in the run game and he peaks his head too early and winds up opening the edge with no outside / force support (because he is the force in a lot of these situations)

-When he makes a move and gets caught by a tackle he is on roller skates and routinely gets knocked off the line of scrimmage.

-Texas Tech tries a lot of things to keep him 1v1 and in space including overloading the line to his side.

-He is an up-field, vertical pass rusher. When he gets off the ball tackles are going to have a real hard time keeping up with him.

-He does a nice job getting his hands in passing lanes.

-Sometimes a slight push can throw him completely off his rush track.

-Absolutely relentless motor. Even when he is thrown off track he recovers and chases.

-Best move might be that spin move against slower OL. Eats them alive. But he uses it a lot.

-Absolute non-factor against Utah (Fano destroyed him). Dominant from the defensive right against Arizona State, but the defensive left he was mostly neutralized (which was when he was against Iheanchor) but he did get some pressures.

-I love how he sets up his immediate swipe move and how explosive off the ball he is.

-I see the point that he may function better as a 34 outside backer. He is not all that impressive from a 5-tech and does his best work from a 9 where he is able to use that explosiveness to his advantage.

Main take aways:

-He is abysmal against the run.
-He struggles against high end tackle prospects, but is absolutely dominant against guys that aren't the best of the best.
-Explosive, sets up his pass rush moves well
-Up-field vertical rusher
-Relentless motor
-Gets hands up in passing lanes
-Curious if he played at 250 lbs, looks smaller.
-Good frame and has elite potential but needs to add weight and strength and develop against the run.

I came away less impressed than I have been after watching the Utah and Arizona State games.

I realize this probably won't be popular here. I just didn't think he played well in two games against two good tackle prospects.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

Speaking of getting hands into passing lanes. Howell is unbelievable at that. Makes you think he's just more aware of what's going on around him than most Edges.

 

[RedWolf]

Bain

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

Here's what I mean about passes defended...does this mean he can kind of do the Van Ginkel role? I don't know. Van Ginkel only had 4 passes defended in his 2 college seasons. But as a professional, Van Ginkel has 37 passes defended to 35.5 sacks. Last season's numbers were 10 PD's to 7 Sacks. I'm not too stressed about "we must find our Van Ginkel" because Luvu will probably fill that role of moving across the LoS and dropping into coverage. He's not as good at sniffing out screens and disrupting them as a pass rusher like Van Ginkel, but most aren't. You know who is though as a draft prospect? Cashius Howell.

Howell has some short comings, so this isn't a "we must draft him" post, but it's a fun thing to consider that's unique among all the Edge rushers here. Not listed here is Arvell Reese (2 passes defended this season, I don't think he started last season), as his NFL position is a big "who knows" as well. His last few college games he barely got any pass rush snaps, he was mostly in lateral coverage responsibilities away from the action. Mirroring RB's in the flat, following a guy in motion, etc. Reese's end of season "disappearing" is a narrative I disagree with. His usage was wildly different, and opposing offenses weren't going in his direction.

Individuals	David Bailey	Reuben Bain	Cashius Howell	TJ Parker	Keldric Faulk	Akheem Mesidor
Passes Defended last 2 seasons combined	4	1	13	2	5	0
Simplified Table	Cashius Howell	All Other 1st Round Edges Combined
Passes Defended last 2 seasons combined	13	12

 

[Dlts20]

Downs has the highest floor. He can only fall with bad coaching and a bad scheme. His on field demeanor, aggression, leadership, text book tackling, football IQ, and intangibles is everything that Jones probably dreams of in a defensive player.

He will be at the center of everything. I'm starting to want him more and more each day. The other guys could be great but they look like a million other guys. Downs looks like Reed, Polamolu, and worst case a Derwin James.

Having him, Magee, and Louvu in the middle of the defense playing downhill can be special. His aggression combined Jones takeaway technique can create a lot of turnovers imo.

 

[The Brotherhood]

Downs has the highest floor. He can only fall with bad coaching and a bad scheme. His on field demeanor, aggression, leadership, text book tackling, football IQ, and intangibles is everything that Jones probably dreams of in a defensive player.

He will be at the center of everything. I'm starting to want him more and more each day. The other guys could be great but they look like a million other guys. Downs looks like Reed, Polamolu, and worst case a Derwin James.

Having him, Magee, and Louvu in the middle of the defense playing downhill can be special. His aggression combined Jones takeaway technique can create a lot of turnovers imo.

Mouth-watering prospect I agree - he's the one I most want us to get. Disclaimer: I'm no expert but watching some film on him I can't stop thinking this guy is special; talent/smarts/toughness/gets to the ball fast/never quits & as you say will surely be at the center of everything.

 

[method man]

Sikkema saying he is hearinf Downs probably falls out of top 10 because he isn’t going to test great

 

[Ashburn Dave]

In most of the mocks I'm seeing this week, have Reese going second to the Jets and Bailey going fourth to the Titans.

We will then have our choice between Bain, Love, or Downs.

We still have a long way to go, but I could live with that.