The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[KDawg]

Without explanations, the current guys I like for us in the first round (including trade down candidates) and these are not in order

David Bailey
Reuben Bain
Elijah Sarratt
Denzel Boston
Keldric Faulk
Jerimiyah Love
Caleb Downs
Peter Woods
Z. Branch

Outside dice roll on Jordyn Tyson, Carnell Tate and depending on how far we trade back KC Concepcion

I’m not sure there is anyone else I’d specifically want in the first at this point but there is some process and video to watch on some of these guys and I’m sure someone else pops up.

Some of these names are obvious trade down guys.

Sonny Styles is a guy who I like that will probably wind up on my list at some point. Just don’t think there is anyone else I’d chance we can use our 1 on him.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I am not totally in agreement with Skinsinpardise that you cannot have an elite pass rusher with short arms.

I didn't say anything remotely like that especially the way you framed the point.

Now he could get 31 flat or 31.125 at the combine as their seems to be about a .25 to .375 inch variability between measurements, but he won't be much higher than 31 at the combine.

By looking at him, I doubt he can exceed expectations but if he did it would get my attention.

 

[philibusters]

I just realized Bain is not a senior so the 30.75 measurement is likely not verified.

 

[HOF44]

Bains nickname gotta be B-Rex!!

 

[skinsinparadise]

The point again on Bain, isn't that "short armed" edges can't be successful in the NFL. Coming from the dude who keeps pushing speed rushers and has quoted Parson's arm length, I am not a stickler for long arms. Hendrickson with 32, etc. Parsons by the way with 11 inch hands, that's massive puts him in the 98 percentile.

It's that if Bain's arm length is under 31 inches, let alone his small 9 inch hands, he'd be the first really good NFL edge with those dimensions. Not because its a theory of mine but because its a fact.

Remember the Jon Ledyard goofing on Ryan Anderson's athleticism but ALSO arm length and his was 31 1/2. Can you have 31 plus arm length and overcome it with athleticism you bet. I was well aware of Parsons I even talked about it on this same thread.

But under 31, is new territory, let alone for a power rusher with small hands. I am not the Christopher Columbus of drafts. lol, I am not discovering new worlds and breaking new ground. If Peters does it, that's different.

If someone here thinks they know. That's cool. I am not trying to rain on anyone's parade. But am just not cocky enough to think that I can predict the first of anything in the NFL -- I got to see it and then decide.

But the idea that a speed rusher with 31.5 arm length with massive hands and speed doesn't reassure me that a power rusher at 30 3/4 arms with small hands and likely isn't a burner will succeed.

The debate reminds me some of the Forbes discussion where 165 pounds got comps to players who are 180. And also the idea of yeah it hasn't happened yet but its Forbes, see all those picks, he's a baller, of course he will be the exception.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I want to see what he measures at the combine. He plays a lot longer than a guy with 31 inch arms imo.

Still love Faulk. In fact the more tape I watch of him the more I like him. I know a bunch of you guys dont like him though. If we are not going to fault Reese for playing his responsibilities in his system we shouldnt fault Faulk either.

My problem with Faulk is ironically the only reason why I'd go for the ride if they took Bain. I am not confident that I can be a pioneer as to guess the first of anything in the draft especially at edge. But there is one reason why I wouldn't flip out if they took Bain (like i flipped out about Forbes) and that is his bend. For bigger dudes especially I want to see bend otherwise IMO its too easy for O lineman to get leverage on them. With Faulk I don't see the bend, he plays tall.

 

[KDawg]

While I understand SIP’s point re: arm length - I don’t think it’s anything like Forbes’ weight. Forbes at 165 was generous. The guy was a pencil. That build is concerning because a player that size will have trouble holding up in the NFL. Bain will be fine on the edge in the NFL. He won’t get abused by bigger and stronger.

The concern for Bain is what his lack of reach does to his pass rush game. Not “can he survive”.

 

[RWJ]

I got 5 guys hot on my radar in the top 10

Bailey: to me he's the guy if he is there at 7. Some here think its odd and quirky to have a 250 pound edge. The thing is its normal. If you want a speed rusher, that's the typical size: Parsons, Bottino, Crosby, Pearce, Will Anderson who is even lighter. It might feel odd as a fan of this team to see this because we don't do speed pass rushers. So these guys feel like weird aliens. But its not odd in the NFL. lol, maybe its a coincidence that we don't do speed pass rushers and the defenses have sucked?

Love: He's probably my #2. You see Bijan Robinson and how he can dominate a game? This guy has that kind of juice.

Tate: I am not a prisoner of the moment kind of guy. He had a great season. Yeah he didn't do much on Wednesday. So what? One game. to me this dude screams Devonte Adams. Big tall WR with a great catch radius, and drops nothing. But lol, it seems like he's one and done with some fans. Not me.

Downs: the safest pick IMO among these guys. Can play post safety, can play in the box. Instincts are unbelievable. Hight intangibles. Leader. But as much as I love him, no way I am taking a safety over an edge if I love that edge and it this point I am that smitten with Bailey.

Tyson: So well rounded. First level-2nd level play and can seperate well against man. Struggles to stay healthy and for a dude who catches so much on the first-2nd level I wish he was a YAC guy but he isn't. But has great hands, great seperator.

On the bubble

Reese: Not as sure he's slam dunk top 3 as it looked weeks ago, he's been quite multiple games in a row. But his tool set is very intriguing. I have to watch him more. In theory a dude who can play weakside LB very well with sideline to sideline speed and can stop the run, and is supposedly an amazing QB spy, and can rush the passer -- feels like one heck of a weapon. But I need to dive in.

Too risky

Reuben Bain: If I am taking him its in a trade down. I can't see top 10. He'd be the first really good pass rusher in NFL history with sub 31 inch arms. Can Bain break the mold? Sure, why not? But I don't want to be the team that rolls the dice to find out. Remember Parcells lecture about how teams get burned in the draft by making exceptions to the normal criteria for success? lol, in short, he wasn't a fan of taking those type of chances.

I remember like yesterday when they took Forbes all the reports about how he'd be the first 165 pound CB in history to be successful in the NFL. And all the shrugs of well who cares he's a football player. He just makes plays. If a 180 pounder can make it work why not 165 pounder?

I'm critical at this point to say that I'd only want either Bailey or Downs with our 1st round pick. I'll expand in time.

 

[skinsinparadise]

While I understand SIP’s point re: arm length - I don’t think it’s anything like Forbes’ weight. Forbes at 165 was generous. The guy was a pencil. That build is concerning because a player that size will have trouble holding up in the NFL. Bain will be fine on the edge in the NFL. He won’t get abused by bigger and stronger.

The concern for Bain is what his lack of reach does to his pass rush game. Not “can he survive”.

Of course he can survive but of course we are looking for a great player not a passable one. The question is in college there are not so many pro level tackles. In the pros plenty of tackles with 33-35 arm length and 10-11 inch hands. Can a 30 and change arm length, 9 inch hand dude who relies on power overcome that disavantage on a regular basis.

Some here say hell yeah he can. Judging by what Brugler and McShay has heard from some scouts, plenty have concerns about it. My point isn't no, he can't. My point is I don't know. And while I love the discussion on the draft threads including by you, no one here is going to reassure me, we are all guessing.

And I get there is guess work on all these guys. But when we start talking about the first ever for a player to succeed at a key measurement -- it makes it a bigger guess than the typical one.

I think using Forbes is actually generous to this point considering you can change your weight, you can't change your arm length. I bring up Forbes because I recall the attitude of those defending the pick, it reminds me some of Bain, which is that they can see enough of the player to know that he can overcome the measurables.

 

[KDawg]

Of course he can survive but of course we are looking for a great player not a passable one. The question is in college there are not so many pro level tackles. In the pros plenty of tackles with 33-35 arm length and 10-11 inch hands. Can a 30 and change arm length, 9 inch hand dude who relies on power overcome that disavantage on a regular basis.

Some here say hell yeah he can. Judging by what Brugler and McShay has heard from some scouts, plenty have concerns about it. My point isn't no, he can't. My point is I don't know. And while I love the discussion on the draft threads including by you, no one here is going to reassure me, we are all guessing.

And I get there is guess work on all these guys. But when we start talking about the first ever for a player to succeed at a key measurement -- it makes it a bigger guess than the typical one.

I think using Forbes is actually generous to this point considering you can change your weight, you can't change your arm length. I bring up Forbes because I recall the attitude of those defending the pick, it reminds me some of Bain, which is that they can see enough of the player to know that he can overcome the measurables.

I don’t remember a single soul who had Forbes being drafted by us with the First.

I get what you are trying to do, but Bain and Forbes are very far from the same situation, even if your point regarding his arm length is fair (and it is).

 

[philibusters]

It wouldn't shock me if Bain ended up a Clellin Ferrell level player. A guy who has occasional moments and has had whole goods seasons of run defense (like when the 49ers made the Super Bowl). Ferrell just finished his 6th season in the league going back and forth between the active roster and practice squad. If you did a 85-50-15 scenarios for Bain I could see the 15% scneario being something like Ferrell--good enough to stay in the league, but not a starter level player. I would expect him to be better than that, but theres a 3 out of 20 scenario (15%) chance that is arm length dooms his to that fate.

All that said, I still like Bain though.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I don’t remember a single soul who had Forbes being drafted by us with the First.

I get what you are trying to do, but Bain and Forbes are very far from the same situation, even if your point regarding his arm length is fair (and it is).

There were rumors like crazy Forbes was going to be taken in the first by Washington. We talked about it on the draft thread. Not early on but the last two weeks leading to the draft. But the discussion was more after the fact, after he was drafted.

I was even made fun of on that days draft thread when I said if they took Forbes over Gonzalez, I'd have a stroke and when it happened people asked me if I was ok.

I recall a post from our old friend McQueen writing a draft love letter about how inventive the pick was from Rivera.

It was so out there about this team's love of Forbes that the Patriots even knew it and didn't trade ahead of Washington to get Gonzalez because they knew of their love of Forbes -- that came out later.

But I think you are taking my point wrong. My concerns for Bain has zero to do with Forbes. It's apples to oranges. I only bring that analogy because if Forbes became a great corner or even good at his weight he would be the first. And I recall some PFF guys making that point and it irritated the hell out of some people in the afterglow of the pick.

 

[skinzplay]

If both Bailey and Downs are there at 7, what's the call?

 

[skinsinparadise]

If both Bailey and Downs are there at 7, what's the call?

Bailey by a mile and I love Downs.

 

[HOF44]

Bailey I think.

 

[philibusters]

Of course he can survive but of course we are looking for a great player not a passable one. The question is in college there are not so many pro level tackles. In the pros plenty of tackles with 33-35 arm length and 10-11 inch hands. Can a 30 and change arm length, 9 inch hand dude who relies on power overcome that disavantage on a regular basis.

Some here say hell yeah he can. Judging by what Brugler and McShay has heard from some scouts, plenty have concerns about it. My point isn't no, he can't. My point is I don't know. And while I love the discussion on the draft threads including by you, no one here is going to reassure me, we are all guessing.
View them?
And I get there is guess work on all these guys. But when we start talking about the first ever for a player to succeed at a key measurement -- it makes it a bigger guess than the typical one.

I think using Forbes is actually generous to this point considering you can change your weight, you can't change your arm length. I bring up Forbes because I recall the attitude of those defending the pick, it reminds me some of Bain, which is that they can see enough of the player to know that he can overcome the measurables.

I definitely defended the pick to some other extent. Like KDawg mentioned, very few if any posters really had us taking him at 16 or 17 or wherever we got him ahead of Christian Gonzalez before the draft. I took him a bunch in the second round in the PFF Mock Draft Simulator that year because it often had him available at like 48. But I don't really remember any posters really advocating for him before the draft at 16 or 17. Ben Standig correctly predicted Washington taking him in the Athletic's draft with their beat reporters. I didn't like the pick in that mock draft.

After the fact, I kind bought into the pick. But that probably was tainted by a bit of homerism. The argument I used was he had a better college career than Christian Gonzalez. Forbes popped as a true freshman and had sustained good play for three years. Christian Gonzalez had a fantastic final season in college, but for his first two seasons he was pretty average. Now we know how that played out. Gonzalez and his elite traits have been fantastic despite only really having one year in college where he was really good and Forbes with his lack of some key traits is a low end starter despite having a really solid college career. Traits definitely do matter.

 

[philibusters]

Bailey by a mile and I love Downs/

Bailey cause of positional value. I think Downs is more of a surefire hit, but lets say Downs peaks as the fourth best safety NFL (e.g. Brian Branch and Bailey peaks as like the 8 or 9th best pass rusher (Josh Allen-Hines). To me you clearly take Josh Allen-Hines over Branch even though Baker is a heck of a football player.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I definitely defended the pick to some other extent. Like KDawg mentioned, very few if any posters really had us taking him at 16 or 17 or wherever we got him ahead of Christian Gonzalez before the draft. I took him a bunch in the second round in the PFF Mock Draft Simulator that year because it often had him available at like 48. But I don't really remember any posters really advocating for him before the draft at 16 or 17. Ben Standig correctly predicted Washington taking him in the Athletic's draft with their beat reporters. I didn't like the pick in that mock draft.

After the fact, I kind bought into the pick. But that probably was tainted by a bit of homerism. The argument I used was he had a better college career than Christian Gonzalez. Forbes popped as a true freshman and had sustained good play for three years. Christian Gonzalez had a fantastic final season in college, but for his first two seasons he was pretty average. Now we know how that played out. Gonzalez and his elite traits have been fantastic despite only really having one year in college where he was really good and Forbes with his lack of some key traits is a low end starter despite having a really solid college career. Traits definitely do matter.

It's a meaningless strawman argument as to when. I didn't say people were clamoring for Forbes in the first round before the draft. If I did quote me on it. And why does it even matter regardless?

I said the arguments that he would be successful remind me of Bain in the context of he's a great player and that's all that matters. And said people "defending the pick" as to Forbes which is the opposite of pushing it in advance.

Whether people made the point before or after the pick, does nothing to defeat my point. It's irrelevant. I had people debate me on Terry before we picked him. And after. Ditto Haskins. The arguments were meaningful either way.

There were some fans of him before the draft, McQueen was one of them. But that wasn't my point. My point was the defending of the pick.

As for Gonzalez. CB is a position that's very trait driven. A dude with that size and speed was unique. And as to the obsession they had with picks, Gonzalez had 3 picks his last season. You may or may not recall but give or take in the last 10 days before the draft, some including me where in a panic because of all the rumors about this team's interest in Forbes. Keim lol that draft was calling it right about every pick or at least the targeted position or close enough. Rivera couldn't keep his mouth shut. Peters is much more clandistine.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Bailey cause of positional value. I think Downs is more of a surefire hit, but lets say Downs peaks as the fourth best safety NFL (e.g. Brian Branch and Bailey peaks as like the 8 or 9th best pass rusher (Josh Allen-Hines). To me you clearly take Josh Allen-Hines over Branch even though Baker is a heck of a football player.

Absolutely because of positional value. You don't pass on an edge you love for a safety you love.

 

[DWinzit]

Whatever his arm length, Bain will go in the top 15 and have a fine NFL career. He is loaded with talent, a great first step and a nonstop motor.

I don't recall anyone wanting Forbes (not directed at you SIP). Gonzo was most people's guy if they went DB or a few who liked Banks. There were a couple of receivers, Harrison, Kincaid who drew discussion.

I know I threw something at the TV and yelled a few 4 letter words when Forbes was announced over Gonzo...same I did when Davis was announced over Darrisaw.