I think in general what I meant by my post was perception rather than stats
Well stats inform perception, right? How much depends on the person. I think stats are just one datapoint, I think eye test is another, and I think context is yet another (and context is a super ambiguous description of a number of possible things - like brand new offense, new qb, schedule, new owners, on and on and on)
Some people (lots of “analytics” people) are hung up on stats and probabilistic statistics as the end all be all decision maker. Anyone who’s an expert in these things would tell you that’s utterly foolish. But lots of people kneel at the alter of analytics and refuse to inform themselves using anything else.
All that is to say that while everyone has flaws with how they choose to analyze things, and the blind spots they create, generally fantasy football is a very large economy of a subset of diverse opinions, that coalesces on a general value for players. It’s not infallible. If used correctly, it is but one data point.
I think the real issue (which I’ve been hinting at all along) is the notion of working with known information you have, and projecting out what you think will be in the future.
You asked “knowing what we know now” - and to me what we know now is that Terry is not producing on a level that is really any different than he has over his career. He’s never been in that tier 1 group and he still isn’t. He’s a guy that can get you (in my league) 20-25 points randomly, but he can also get you 3. He’s a survivable rotational bench player. He can fill in for byes, injuries, or matchups. In a deep league like mine he can be a started because your (and others) draft strategy made him the best option for you.
A tier 1 receiver is (in my scoring format) gonna get you 20+ every week. Occasionally 30+. Sometimes only 10+. And never single digits without an injury or unexpectedly being on the receding end of a total blowout. That’s not what he’s done.
Yes. On some level it’s about projecting performance. Guessing what’s going to be different this year, because the nfl is different year to year and even week to week. It cracks me up how all these clowns out out season projections and if you hold them up to last seasons summary it’s almost identical. It’s like these people don’t actually pay attention because they did they’d know you can’t do that because it *never* works out that way.
You’re asking if peoples projections would be wildly different based on 4 games, 2 that were good and 2 that were garbage. I think the answer is no.
And I think you’d only find skins fans willing to say yes. And I think in most leagues where he was taken high this year, you’ll find he was taken high by a skins fan… just a guess.
Our fan base has complained for 25 years about the lack of respect for our team or for individual players of ours. But in hindsight over the last 25 years we’ve been total and utter garbage, with a few blips of bright spots along the way that mostly turned out to be fools gold.
And I think that right now, if the NFL did a redraft, Daniels would be among the first Qb’s to go, and Terry would not be among the first 15 (maybe 20, maybe even 25) receivers to go.
If you want to say that means those people are stupid and underestimating him - that’s fine, you can say that. But you’d be projecting out a future no one’s seen yet and many are skeptical is realistic, while most everyone else is working with real information in the moment.
And again - I think “true #1 receiver” has a specific definition, and I think “elite” is thrown around *way* too carelessly. Arguing subjective opinions is hard enough - doing it when we’re using different definitions for labels makes it impossible and almost pointless.
And there’s 32 gms that are paid very well and expected to be football experts, they devote their career to this, and they screw up picks and projecting out players *all the time*
To think a bunch of random fans somehow know it all and are the ones that really get it? Idk. If your that good there’s 32 teams that would pay you a lot of money full time to do it, if you can prove that you’re that good at it