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Taylor Heinicke- Extend, Redo, or Keep Current Contract?

Body of work is a really big deal, never more so than with the QB position. Four games ago this wouldn't have been a discussion, since he was struggling. Today it's far more interesting, intriguing even, but for me it's still too soon to commit to the idea that what we've seen from TH4 the last four games can be confidently projected forward as his baseline level of play. Even the end of this season will be pushing it a bit, at least to my way of thinking. But I recognize the reality and dynamics of heading into next year as is 'contract year.'

So ... ask me again when this season--however it plays out--is over.
 
Yep. He keeps this level of play (and winning games is helpful too) and quite possible he gets a long-term extension as the presumed starter. If he doesn’t, he won’t.

Truth is, an unheralded guy like Heinicke, with no investment made to get him, and with zero draft pedigree, has to be a lot better to get and keep the opportunity a guy we traded for or who was drafted by us might.

That’s just the way it works.
 
Referred to as utilization percentage in my line of work but you are correct the numbers realistically are based off how much is a team willing to sacrifice when it comes to being able to sign other players, the opportunity cost percentage. Eventually there is a market equilibrium that will exist, TV rights etc. will go up but that is finite. There is only so much ad revenue etc. that can overcome the cost a network is willing to pay. DirecTV has never made a dime off Sunday Ticket it was always a loss leader but in todays markets that strategy doesn't work. Ticket prices cannot continue to increase at the stadium as well as concessions because it is outpacing customer income and that will only work in large markets where they can sustain having only 20% of the local fanbase being able to afford going to the game. I'm getting down in the weeds here essentially my point, this system works for now but when it hits threshold (hell could be 30 years from now) it'll be painful to have a player taking up 15-20% of the cap and unlike the former NBA (that's not basketball anymore, sorry) ya need more than 3 capable players to win. On a side note, with QB's playing longer in age at what point is a 35 year old QB not a placeholder but a 5 year starter?




The latest news I've seen says it'll be AT LEAST 12 years before the TV money goes down... The cap is directly based on revenue, and $110M over 12 years is a hell of a lot of revenue. Now i will admit that since i've posted this i have not seen ANYONE else talking about it, and I expected this to be front page new given the size of this reported deal...
 


The latest news I've seen says it'll be AT LEAST 12 years before the TV money goes down... The cap is directly based on revenue, and $110M over 12 years is a hell of a lot of revenue. Now i will admit that since i've posted this i have not seen ANYONE else talking about it, and I expected this to be front page new given the size of this reported deal...

You be stealing all the headlines
 
I agree with all this. I think TH is also very appreciative and thankful that Rivera and the WFT gave him his big break. It’s all going to boil down to whether the team thinks they can ride with him for the foreseeable future and is willing to commit. Now if they don’t do a deal and draft a youngster, I think anything could happen.

As far as money goes, none of these QBs are ‘worth’ the money they are being paid. But you can’t expect Heinicke (if the team pursues him as a starter for the next contract period) to sign for some kind of ‘I’m not a legit starter’ compensation package. He is literally making chump change right now. That’s fine in a ‘prove it’ season. But if he continues to prove he’s starter material we will have to pay him the appropriate starting QB salary. Note I didn’t say crazy money, but average starter money would be expected.
Agreed with all of this. The thing is, just like any investment on two sides--
1) When the player takes all of the risk, they will expect more compensation. That's fair. The team makes the player take more risk, at the end, they want more compensation. Also, the market will determine the pricing in this case (usually), because the team waited for the investment to become more of a sure thing (proven commodity). This is approximately how the Cousins situation played out. He was overpaid by Minny, I agree personally, but he had better numbers than people tend to give him credit for, and he is a better QB than many people here think (understandably, with the history here). That said, I totally agree that he was overpaid, but I think the market generally overpays QBs and sets a lot of teams up to be perennial losers or perhaps short-term winners and mid to long-term losers.
2) When the team takes more risk, the team should be able to get a deal. Period.

That number 2 is nice and short. It just makes sense. The longer WFT waits, the more "proof" they get, the more Taylor's stock rises. All bad if they want to get a better value for him, I think. It's very true, there is still some element of risk and he is still unproven in some aspects, but at this point (and even one or two games ago), I would have really started to think about a longer-term deal. To be honest, I would have been looking for signs from the start of the season and probably would have wanted to be deep in negotiation. I don't want to overpay. This is a rare situation where you may get a long-term QB who can be a franchise QB. Top-tier? Maybe not, in pure talent terms. Winner? A guy who can lead your team to wins? I mean, at the end of the day, that is what's needed, right?

Man, I would love to lock him up for anything south of 15m / year. 10-12m would sound great. I haven't looked at the average salary for starters and backups, and seen the way the salaries play out though.

My current max would probably be in the 15-18m range, but that is still a bit naive about the current market. I mean, like in any business and job situation, the organization wants to pay as little as possible, and this is a commodity who came in without a pedigree. That implies more risk on the part of the employer as long as he remains relatively unproven in the industry.
 

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