- Sep 28, 2010
- Reaction score
- BGO's Official Resident "Tech Dummy"
Pete Hailey over on NBC Sports Washington broke the numbers down for you.
Here's what he said:
"23 passers have gone in the top half of the first round of the past 10 NFL drafts, like Haskins did this past April. But when did those franchises first turn to their prized, young prospects?
Here are the key takeaways from looking at that group's experiences and comparing when each got their chance to initially take over under center full-time (for a QB-by-QB breakdown, head to the bottom of the story):
1) If you take every QB's first opportunity to be starter and assign it a number value based on the game in which that opportunity happened (opening day starter equates to 1, someone who began starting in Week 4 equates to 4, etc.) then average those numbers together, you'll get 3.56. That means these 23 guys, on average, took over approximately three or four games in.
2) 12 out of the 23 started right away, while Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen took over midway through the first game. So, basically, 14 out of 23 were at the top of the depth chart from the beginning.
3) Just two out of the 23 â€” Jake Locker and Patrick Mahomes â€” waited a full season to assume the starting spot due to Alex Smith and Matt Hasselbeck's performance ahead of them.
So, there are numbers from the last decade that suggest Haskins is going to get his shot and get it very soon. And those numbers, while pretty eye-opening, make sense"
Great stuff Knight - always nice to see the numbers and that validates what we've been saying. That doesn't necessarily mean throwing the youngster in the fire is what should happen. But it does make clear that if he does start immediately, or soon after, we're following the NFL precedent and norm. It's not some dysfunctional outlier of an approach as the cynical DC sports media will spin it.
Agreed - if it plays out that he starts right away, or if he sits a few games - it's not some "wild" approach or neccesarily a command from the owner. History shows, it's typical.
This article has some more insight into the draft and what Jay was thinking QB wise:
It may be the "norm", but I'm more concerned with the percentage of time that it works, rather than it being the norm.