Stand Pat or Balls to the Wall at Trade Deadline?

[Boone]

Do you prefer the Commanders stand pat and let next year's regime make personnel decisions, or for them to be big sellers before the impending NFL trade deadline?

 

[SkinsOrlando]

No player is safe, I don't see how we could justify saying that any player is safe, now that also means the deals would also have to be heavy in our favor for a few players (McLaurin, Allen, Payne).

 

[Neophyte]

I went with Stand Pat. I really don't trust this regime to evaluate anything right now.

The only exception here would be if someone made a stupid offer for a player.

 

[Bulldog]

I would not trade any of the core players under contract (McLaurin, Allen, Dotson, Payne, etc.).

What I WOULD do is try and move players whose contracts are expiring and who will be looking for paydays Washington is not going to be providing for under the cap in 2024. This includes Young and Sweat.

But again, the team recoups #3 picks as comps if they leave so there is no reason to fire sale them away for #4 or #5 picks.

If Claypool garnered a #2 pick last year at the deadline that is what I would be looking for as a basis for a trade for either of the DEs.

If it doesn't happen we can franchise Sweat and let Young go and recoup the pick in the 2024 draft. Perhaps then Sweat could be part of a trade in 2024. If by that time the team has a new GM perhaps he decides he wants to keep Sweat in the fold and we come to a deal with him and let some other players go to make the cap room work.

Other players who are not considered core in my mind SHOULD be on the table for trade to other teams that may have sustained injuries at those positions or want to bolster depth.

I would put Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson, Cody Barton, Kendall Fuller and any of the safeties in that basket.

Available at a price.

Of the contenders:

Buffalo would seem to have a need along the DL for a pass rusher.

Baltimore needs backfield and offensive depth so Samuel and Gibson could be a match there.

Miami is a team that needs defensive depth across the board.

Kansas City could use a DL but they have such limited cap space we would have to take a salary back in trade and I wonder who the Chiefs would be willing to let go that would really help us now and for a few years down the road.

Pittsburgh would be a good fit for Montez Sweat. And he seems to fit into their mold of the quiet but productive player. Chase Young is not the kind of personality the Steelers usually look to add to their team and his salary demands are likely to be in the absurd range in the offseason.

 

[Boone]

I would not trade any of the core players under contract (McLaurin, Allen, Dotson, Payne, etc.).

What I WOULD do is try and move players whose contracts are expiring and who will be looking for paydays Washington is not going to be providing for under the cap in 2024. This includes Young and Sweat.

But again, the team recoups #3 picks as comps if they leave so there is no reason to fire sale them away for #4 or #5 picks.

If Claypool garnered a #2 pick last year at the deadline that is what I would be looking for as a basis for a trade for either of the DEs.

Other players who are not considered core in my mind SHOULD be on the table for trade to other teams that may have sustained injuries at those positions or want to bolster depth.

I would put Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson, Cody Barton, Kendall Fuller and any of the safeties in that basket.

Available at a price.

With a new regime likely coming in who will probably be inclined to be active in free agency, very unlikely we get any comp picks imho.

 

[Bulldog]

I don't see a new GM going out and spending $20 million plus on 2-3 contracts that would negate receiving comp picks for Young and/or Sweat.

I would doubt Harris takes the approach that Snyder did and load up on name free agents in an attempt to jump start 2024 with the future be damned.

That's not what he did with the Devils and Sixers. He took the bad records and drafted top talents #1-2 in the draft and rebuilt those teams on younger players. Later on he paid those players to stay and added free agents but not right away. Those clubs were ascending when the front offices went out for trades and free agent moves.

Besides, how many players will Washington be looking to sign in the offseason that will demand the $23M a year that Chase Young is looking for?

 

[burgold]

I’m opposed to a fire sale, but I wouldn’t turn away from any reasonable offer. Rosters are too big in the NFL to totally get rid of everyone plus you want a few gray beards to teach the next generation. So trade away, but don’t go nuts. This isn’t a bankruptcy sale.

 

[SkinsOrlando]

NFL trade deadline is not usually very interesting as a whole, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw zero activity from the team as I'd expect low ball offers like a 4th for Sweat and that type of bs.

 

[Primus Porcus]

 

[Kel Varnsen]

I know you can’t control if Sweat would sign an extension, but I’d take a mid second rounder for Sweat. It’s possible the Falcons could win that division and it becomes a later second rounder, but with Arthur Smith coaching, I’d be shocked if they make it in.

 

[Solitary Man]

I wish we could sign a GM now and remove that title from Ron. There probably is not enough time to get the right long term guy for that job. I would keep most of the good young players. I would part with Chase Young or Montez Sweat though since we have to expect they will command a kings ransom and neither deserve it

 

[Bulldog]

The calculus is easy for Washington with Young and Sweat. If the offers don't exceed the value of the comp picks then no deal and we will keep the players for the remaining 9 games and see what happens.

Washington isn't a contender this year and under a new owner has little pressure to produce. These other clubs face greater pressure to succeed THIS year as several of these coaches have been in place for 3-4 years and need to show some results

Carolina after all did give us two #1 picks for Sean Gilbert

 

[Boone]

POTENTIAL COMP PICKS

 

[Bulldog]

Signing Daron Payne last offseason all but guaranteed you could not sign both Young and Sweat regardless of what they did in 2023.

There are tradeoffs and the team decided an all pro season out of Payne was worth the potential of a Young return to form and Sweat posting a 10-11 sack season.

Of course it's dangerous to project a guy off a contract year as Washington did with Dana Stubblefield who posted 15 sacks in San Francisco in 1997, but the team assumed Payne's ascent in 2022 was just the start of something big. The chances were there all along though that while solid Payne was not going to reproduce those 2022 numbers again.

My question is whether an Andy Reid or Bill Belichick in his prime would have resigned Payne or traded him the season before?

 

[burgold]

My question is whether an Andy Reid or Bill Belichick in his prime would have resigned Payne or traded him the season before?

This is a good point. Feels like the best resignings don't happen after the contract expired, but one year earlier. In other words, this offseason was the year to extend Curl and if you wanted either Sweat or Chase. By waiting a season, you flip the leverage and the player or their agent is in the driver's seat. So while the player can always say "No" it is better to lock them up early (I don't know if they tried, but we haven't had a history of doing this in recent years.)

As to Payne specifically, I didn't love the re=signing, but did feel he won the roll of the dice with a spectacular year. Regression to the mean seems to be in play vs. light switch going off.

 

[Bulldog]

I think the key is knowing you can't resign everyone.

We resigned McLaurin, Allen, Payne to big contracts.

That necessarily meant that one of the DEs was going to be on the move either via trade or free agency.

It appears the club didn't plan well for the transition and is now trying to get what it can at this late date.

 

[burgold]

This thread started out with the question what would you prefer. I'd like to flip it to "What do you predict?"

What do you think happens tomorrow? Does anyone get flipped? Is it a fair trade, a triumph, or do we get screwed? If you're courageous you can even name a player.

I'll start:

Yes, we will make a two trades. I predict trading Sweat for something equivalent to a 2nd (either that 3rd that turns into a 2nd with a new contract or an outright 2nd.) I'll call that a fair trade. I also think Curtis Samuel (pending passing a physical) is traded for a fifth rounder (which is a bad trade for us, but good for our salary cap.)

 

[Primus Porcus]

Do I prefer we stand pat?

No. I think we need to move at least 1 of the 2 between Sweat and Young. I also wouldn't classify that at as a fire sale, even if we traded both.

- I don't think we get a Comp pick for either one of them in 2025 if we let them walk, because a new Owner / new GM / new HC will have close to $100m to spend in free agency with damn near half our active roster set to be a free agent at the end off the season. There is going to be not only a possibility to spend, but a need to do so.

- We don't know the dialogue with Sweat and Young regarding if they're even considering giving us a shot in the offseason. Additionally they share an agent, so it's very likely (based on what we've heard about players approaching FA) he's instructing them that the open market is where they should go. These factors could force us to franchise tag whichever one of the two we hold on to, if that's what ultimately happens. Otherwise they walk.


My prediction:

I think we ultimately move 1 of the 2, and my money is on Sweat. Young is showing up in the stat sheet, but the injury history, the smaller sample size, the film... I think other NFL GMs hold Sweat in a higher regard than Young, so I think the return for Montez ultimately looks better.

 

[Neophyte]

The Giants just traded Leonard Williams, a DT, to Seattle for a 2nd in 2024 and a 5th in 2025.

Do you think that changes the market at all?

 

[Chris]

Sweat is 3 years older than Young (27/24). Both are physical specimens, neither is a world beater. If I’m going to keep 1 of the 2 I’m keeping Young strictly because of his age.