per Serv's post, Allen's decision process seems to weight financial impacts more heavily. ok. it would be interesting to know how his team does the marginal analysis - cost savings versus expected impacts....we won't pay too much. how do they measure "too much"? we'll find out on the field next season whether their strategy and eye for talent was good. I'm hoping like *ell that the scouting/personnel guys nail it in the draft - so we can return to cap problems in 3-4 years!
but with another Lombardi in the glass case.
I've mentioned it before, numerous times in person to friends, and in posts... Bill Barnwell nicely termed it a "Loser's Tax" - and I'd like to say I did that before too, but can't remember... so I have to credit Barnwell now, it's too perfect. I did call it a "stench" in the past I think.
We're paying the Loser's Tax. And it's a hefty tax with our track record. It's a hefty tax with our PR / perception out there (by this I mean a variety of things: the media reporting at times, Snyder perception AND honestly reality, franchise stability...). Either they are coming here for way above market value, or they are not even visiting. So what happens? Teams with a high loser's tax only have a few choices:
1) Overpay. Mortgage the future. Most likely, you will end up doubling down on your loser's tax this way. Source: Redskins 2000s era.
2) Pay only who will play for a "reasonable" wage. This pretty much means you are playing complete garbage, because the loser's tax makes it so. A high enough tax (stench?) and you are heading for last year's IR lists for most of your players. You are heading to the 30+ club for guys who want to prove that they can still play. You are looking at UDFAs, practice squad players... and that is pretty much all you are looking at.
3) Middle. You will end up overpaying for sub-par talent here, but you won't get complete garbage. The contracts won't look reasonable at all times. They will appear slightly bloated. This carries some risks: you may waste money, and with the wrong locker room, it could cause problems as well. It may hurt you in the future for the same reasons as #1, but that part is mitigated by the overpayments being substantially lower.
So, it's hopeless? Losers stay losers forever? This is the story of free agency for losers. FREE AGENCY. If you feel you must fix your team in free agency, I will see you in a few years, and I'd like to look at your tax bill. You are probably living in imagination land. The draft is the only viable solution. I always refused to say the Redskins made a good move drafting RG3 at the price they paid. It's water under the bridge now, and I do like RG3, and I think if he gets his head on straight he can be special, and ALL that... but my belief is that it's hard to value draft picks, and if you give up 2 picks for a player (because I'm considering that year's pick a direct swap)... it's a tough pill to swallow for a true believer that the only way out of loserville (esp. with the high tax the Skins have) is to go through the draft, BIG TIME, ALL-IN style.
So, here we are, 2014, and our free agency has been simple. Some are complaining that this strategy doesn't seem like a winner. Some are saying "wait for the draft" with some hope. Yes, I hope that in the draft they will plug up some remaining holes. I am not sure they have enough this year to fix everything they need to fix PROPERLY. So, the free agency plugs are in place, we get some long-term (this is where draft talent evaluation and strategy literally makes or breaks us) solutions in the draft... and then the free agency plugs are shuffling in and out next year as we collect more real solutions in the draft.
It's the only way out of the loser's tax. And if you don't have enough pieces to get solved in one draft... you are basically waiting for two drafts. Without mortgaging your future.
We actually do have a lot of pieces, as you can see from two years ago and that performance. So, even though I don't think we field a dominant team, I do think that if RG3 and Gruden get their heads together and play to RG3's strengths, and his mobility is back, and he has a solid offseason... well he is a very special player. I feel like two years ago we had a (personnel-wise) very bad defense, but they were able to do enough to win. Part of that was the pressure on the other team's offense due to our offensive success. So, that same kind of formula could play out. In my opinion, that is NOT a postseason winning strategy. So, we definitely have to fix our defense and get legit on that side of the ball... and I'm not sure we'll be there in one offseason.
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