Random Commanders Thoughts

[Primus Porcus]

I agree with a lot of that. But anecdotal examples (like Trey Lance or Brock Purdy) is a dangerous path to go down. The reason 'analytics' is all the rage is because it represents the idea that if you follow statistical probability over the long haul, you will make more great decisions than bad. Hitting on a very low probability move, or missing on a high probability move are part of the equation and shouldn't drive your approach one way or the other.

Here's the other thing. I don't necessarily agree that bad decisions are made because bad teams have bad scouting - at least not when it comes to QB. It is very difficult to know if even the greatest college QB will be a great NFL QB. Look at Trevor Lawrence. He was supposed to be a 'generational talent'. Right now, it's not 100% certain he is going to be a successful starter. That doesn't mean it was a mistake to draft him.

If even the experts are often wrong about which QBs are going to be stars and which aren't, I think that argues that you swing more often, not less. Eventually you will hit.

I agree, I mean Generally. There are teams that seem to always find themselves picking in the top half of the draft... those teams also seem to be turning over their roster pretty frequently. I just think there are teams that evaluate, and identify talent better than others, and those teams pretty regularly don't pick in the top 10 unless they move up to get a guy.

There's about 15 different factors that go into whether or not a player hits.... Talent, Development, Fit, Scheme, Coaching, Right time right place, Investment, Confidence... a lot of these things are not static either. They can change, and be effected by other factors. The right guy can go at the wrong time, and the wrong guy in the right circumstance can me more successful than the first.

I still go back to my point. I'd rather not take a QB for the sake of taking one... but if we're on the clock at 2, and they believe one of the guys available is worth the pick, you absolutely have to take him.

 

[Boone]

We're 99% on the same page. All we can do is trust this new group. They'll make mistakes. Let's hope they get the QB right - because that's a big one.

 

[Bulldog]

Of the final quarterbacks playing tomorrow 3 of the 4 were first round picks.

Only Brock Purdy was a Hail Mary find later in the draft.

If we go back a week we see Stroud, Allen and Love all being #1 picks.

So, while it seems possible to luck out and find a Brady, Purdy late in the draft or a Wilson in the middle rounds, the most successful method of acquiring a franchise quarterback is still to take one early.

If Washington wants to move down a few picks because they want to take Penix, that’s fine.

But I don’t want to see the team wait until the 4th or 5th round to take a a project quarterback.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Pretty sure nobody is advocating for that… just more of a realization that the guy at 2 needs to be worth 2…. And allowing QB desperation to skew that decision would be bad.

 

[Bulldog]

I think most former and current NFL personnel guys I have seen acknowledge that top to bottom this is the best quarterback draft in a number of years.

So, in that regard unlike 2019 and 2021 when we saw the likes of Haskins, Jones and Pickett be the top quarterbacks off the board, we are actually going to get guys with genuine franchise skills.

No one since Andrew Luck has been a 100% lock it in prospect.

Williams is often too dependent upon his off schedule work and one wonders if he can perform at a high level in a structured system at the next level.

Maye is durable and the youngster in the group at 21 but his accuracy on short and intermediate passes is not always as tight as coaches would like to see.

Daniels puts up pinball numbers but he is playing in an offense where a lot of his throws were to wide open receivers as TWO of his catchers may be taken in the first round of the draft. He also has a slight build which when running 'up and down' as he does on scrambles lends itself to durability issues down the road.

All that said, I think all THREE are better prospects than ANY players at the position in a number of past drafts.

When you throw in Penix and McCarthy there may be FIVE quarterbacks taken in the first 40 picks.

BTW, I just got through reading an article where scouts themselves were completely at odds over a guy like Penix.

One scout had him going in the first round while another said he was a middle round pick that 'his team would not be drafting' because of previous injury concerns and his performance against Michigan.

 

[Solitary Man]

watching Chase Young play. I would not be surprised if he is out of the league in a year or two. Whether he is nervous about the leg and wants to stay away from incidental contact or it is impeding him, he is mostly invisible out there. We did good to get a 3rd round pick.

 

[Om]

Right?

Was watching with my wife and a couple friends last night, and must have pointed out Chase jogging around in a clean uniform trailing the play a half-dozen times. Again.

What a weird path he's traveling.

 

[burgold]

Right?

Was watching with my wife and a couple friends last night, and must have pointed out Chase jogging around in a clean uniform trailing the play a half-dozen times. Again.

What a weird path he's traveling.

I think it’s more and worse than that. The 49ers D was once really dominant. They have been worse since they inserted Chase into the lineup. That D is not the same D that was stomping offenses for most of the season. In the playoffs especially, that D was barely holding on against both Green Bay and Detroit.

 

[Om]

I've been surprised how much playing time they've given Chase. Hard to imagine when they sit down Monday mornings to grade the film they see a legit starting defensive end on a championship-hopeful defense.

But they trot him out there every week.

Shrug.

Think Andy Reid isn't going to challenge Chase to set the edge against the run?

Think they won't invite him up the field abandoning his lane and throw screens behind him?

Think they won't do that shit over and over?

SF won't be able to hide him.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

I don’t think SF will sign him this offseason. I see him going to a bad team that overpays him for where he was drafted. I said this in the playoff thread, I thought he had a good game yesterday and was actually surprised at a few of the plays he made. He didn’t have a sack, but made a couple of other plays. Last week he blew an assignment that led to a big play. When the Lions ran that end around for a TD, I was surprised to see it was Bosa that blew the assignment and not Young. But even if the team thinks he had a good game yesterday, I would be shocked if SF keeps him. They see the whole film and know what he does all game and not just on a few plays.

 

[Neophyte]

Bosa may have blown that one assignment but that man was still everywhere. I saw him 10-15 yards downfield, in on tackles, more than once yesterday. He plays with the kind of hair-on-fire, devil-may-care attitude that Chase displayed as a rookie.

I think that Chase is gone though. He is a shell of the guy we drafted without any fire for the game.

Honestly, I could see him walk away if the 49ers win in 2 weeks. Not saying he will walk away, just that I can see it.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

I’m not criticizing Bosa. I thought he was great like he usually is. I was commenting more on how I was waiting to see it was Young on that side, but it wasn’t.

 

[Neophyte]

I know, Kel.

My comment was aimed at the difference in the two players. What I was trying to say was that even with the early blown assignment, I'll take Bosa over Young.

 

[Chris]

I couldn’t have said it better.

 

[Solitary Man]

 

[Solitary Man]

The Niners must consider benching him for the Super Bowl. Then obviously letting him go. He is a liability. What is going on in his head only he knows.

 

[Bulldog]

Like RGIII and Haskins, Chase Young convinced himself he was a star before he took his first snap in the NFL.

Why Washington seemed to be attracted to those kinds of players and personality types in the past, I am glad it's over now.

With the ultimate jock sniffer, Dan Snyder, out of the building evaluating players on the basis of their football IQ and maturity level is once again in vogue here

 

[Neophyte]

 

[burgold]

My guess is no. I think Davis has been okay, but not great. If Peters and the new coaches look at the tape and decide he can be a force with better coaching, scheming etc then maybe, but as of now the feeling has got to be that we need to upgrade the entire linebacker corp.

 

[Bulldog]

PASS.

Davis was overdrafted and should have been a mid to late #2 pick. That was Ron's failure to get value for the #19 pick.

Davis has had some questionable off the field issues including that Everett crash that cost a life in Virginia. Allegedly Davis was involved in a 3 car cash going over 110mph.

If you add in that bad judgment, middling on field performances and the fact linebacker is a position where the team can replace him with one of those top 100 picks and pay that player $1M or less in Year 1 makes this a no-brainer.

A good front office in SF was able to find Fred Werner and Greenlaw in the middle rounds and both are pro bowlers.