Random Commanders Thoughts

Another way of looking at it is that, IF he meets those escalators but proves to truly be a great fit and be our starter for years to come, that’s a very small price to pay. And you will have to pay Fitzmagic, bridge or not. I agree Fitzmagic may be the cheapest route to an immediately better QBing situation. Short of getting lucky with a QB raTed outside the top 5-6 prospects in the draft, just wonder how the hell does this team find its long-term solution at QB?
 
Boone said:
Another way of looking at it is that, IF he meets those escalators but proves to truly be a great fit and be our starter for years to come, that’s a very small price to pay. And you will have to pay Fitzmagic, bridge or not. I agree Fitzmagic may be the cheapest route to an immediately better QBing situation. Short of getting lucky with a QB raTed outside the top 5-6 prospects in the draft, just wonder how the hell does this team find its long-term solution at QB?
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so you'd rather pay Mariota $10 mil to 'find out' if he can meet those escalators? Plus give up draft capital to get him? Even 'if' he doesn't hit those escalators you have to leave that cap space available so you may not be paying it to Mariota but you also can't spend it.

It's also possible that LV is forced to release Mariota since they're not going to want to pay him a $10mil base. I could see us going after him in free agency, but still a $10 mil cap hit seems steep unless you truly believe he's a long term answer.

Fitz TOTAL number last year was $8mil and i highly doubt his expectation of that number goes up... if anything it goes down. What's better... Fitz at $6.5mil or Mariota at $20 mil (because you can't occupy that cap space in case he hits those qualifiers) and giving up a 3rd to get him?
 
So is our goal here saving money (when we are in better shape than any other NFC East team) or getting a long-term QB?

Obviously you don’t give up anything for Mariota if you don’t believe he has the potential to be a starter. They may not, no way of knowing. $20 million is the current basement for a real starting QB, so whether that’s a ridiculous risk or a good deal is going to depend on how they evaluate his talent.

And sure, he may be released (although I’ll ask, why would they release a young QB who has started games and played well at times, knowing he’d likely have almost no chance of earning those big dollars?).

For me, a Fitzmagic signing makes more sense if you think he gets you deep playoff runs or to a Super Bowl in the next 2 years. If they believe that, I’m on board with it (although maybe Big Ben is a possibility and a better option) in that case?

One last comment - does Fitzpatricks game really match Scott Turners offense? Seems like he would’ve been a better fit for Jay Gruden’s play action offense than this one?
 
If the Jets truly would take a 2nd rounder for Sam Darnold, I’m running to the phone.
 
Boone said:
So is our goal here saving money (when we are in better shape than any other NFC East team) or getting a long-term QB?

Obviously you don’t give up anything for Mariota if you don’t believe he has the potential to be a starter. They may not, no way of knowing. $20 million is the current basement for a real starting QB, so whether that’s a ridiculous risk or a good deal is going to depend on how they evaluate his talent.

And sure, he may be released (although I’ll ask, why would they release a young QB who has started games and played well at times, knowing he’d likely have almost no chance of earning those big dollars?).

For me, a Fitzmagic signing makes more sense if you think he gets you deep playoff runs or to a Super Bowl in the next 2 years. If they believe that, I’m on board with it (although maybe Big Ben is a possibility and a better option) in that case?

One last comment - does Fitzpatricks game really match Scott Turners offense? Seems like he would’ve been a better fit for Jay Gruden’s play action offense than this one?
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I'm not confident that either Fitz or Mariota is a long term solution so i'm looking at which one is going to be better for the team in 2021. I think Fitz give you a better shot at a run for less money and you don't have to give up draft capital. I look at our current cap situation and see a unique situation where not only do we have good cap space (which could be even BETTER pending the Alex Smith situation) but there are less suiters on the open market because less teams have cap space. We could seriously upgrade positions of this team that aren't QBs in ways we usually don't get a chance to.

If we were to release Alex Smith we could have upwards of $51 million in space.

Allen Robinson ($20 mil)
Tre Boston ($7 mil)
Brandon Scherff ($15 mil)
Ronald Darby ($9mil)

That's exactly $51 mil right there. There's no room for a possible $20mil gap for a guy like Mariota

Now you can manipulate different deals to move it around but a $20mil 'chance' on Mariota is worriesome. Yes, it's the going rate for starting QBs, but is he a starting QB?


And i agree with you on Darnold... gimme that guy for a 2nd. I believe he'd only cost us ~$4.8mil this year because the Jets would still carry his signing bonus hit... and he's in the final year of his deal. Cheap guy to bring in that may be a hit. If not we're not tied to him outside of the draft capital given up.
 
The decision on Smith is really going to be the telling point of what they do. They signed Henicke meaning they expect him to be on the roster. If Smith returns, I don't think a vet will be added. I'm not even sure a trade would happen for a QB beyond a possible backup guy. I don't think Smith is willing to be a backup for another vet. A young guy getting a chance, sure because he can mentor that guy and knows he has a shot to play. But a vet QB or even a superstar like Watson where he knows he would never play, I don't think he wants to be a backup for that. So if he stays, realistically you are looking to fill the 3rd QB spot. In that scenario, taking a mid round guy in the draft who can be inactive most weeks while they learn is probably the way to go. Darnold is intriguing for sure and at the right price, I think he could come in as the starter with Smith as the backup and Heinicke as the 3rd guy. Otherwise, I don't see any of the vets or trade targets mentioned being on the roster along with Alex. This is just my opinion of course, but I'm trying to think why Smith would want to be a backup with little option to play or why the Team would want his contract when he isn't playing and they paying another guy big money to play.
 
I don't think it will really be up to Smith. My guess is, if for whatever reason they can't trade for, sign in FA, or draft a 3rd QB, they may offer to let him compete. But that's probably the best offer he is going to get (not just from Washington - from anyone). And if we do end up in that scenario, where they just weren't able to upgrade, they'll ask him to take a massive paycut. I just don't see any scenario where they either continue paying him to be the guy he was, but never will be again, or that he'll have any choice at all other than to accept whatever an offer is.
 
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He’s gotta be a cut this summer, reserving even a camp spot for Love seems a waste at this point.
 
Cutting him now saves ~$600K against the cap, doing it post June 1 (or at least with a post June 1 designation) that bumps the savings up to $780K

I don't know what to think of that dude. Rivera is not tied to him and Rivera has 3 guys in the building he hand picked at this point. I don't imagine you go into camp with 3 RBs on the roster so carrying Love into OTAs and minicamps to get a look at him is likely what happens, but drafting an RB all but guarantees Love's time in DC is done. I can't see him pulling something miraculous off and making the team so I'd imagine you're right...
 
Drafting ‘should’ be the way forward imo. And while we’re at it id look to jettison P Barber as well. Another shifty guy like Mckissic or Gibson who can also catch would be best

edit: not sure why the CCD was there, lol
 
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Win4us said:
Drafting ‘should’ be the way forward imo. And CCD while we’re at it id look to jettison P Barber as well. Another shifty guy like Mckissic or Gibson who can also catch would be best
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Demetric Felton-UCLA RB that runs routes like a WR...that's the guy
 
Win4us said:
Drafting ‘should’ be the way forward imo. And CCD while we’re at it id look to jettison P Barber as well. Another shifty guy like Mckissic or Gibson who can also catch would be best
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As meh as Barber appeared I think there's a value in his role. I'd rather him run 100mph into a brick wall in short yardage situations than Gibby or McKissic. If we were to draft a thumper type like that and release Barber he opens up $1.34 mil, but I think Rivera and co like him and what he brings to the table. I dont want him getting 200 carries, but 3-4 carries a game in short yardage and leverage situations I'd be ok with...

I do think we draft another dynamic, versatile type though and keep Barber in his current role. Having Gibby / McKissic / (dynamic rookie) being versatile could be big, kind of like having 3 great lines in hockey.. you can just keep coming and coming and you can't key on "well this guy is in the game so it's a pass vs that guy means its a run."
 
Win4us said:
Drafting ‘should’ be the way forward imo. And CCD while we’re at it id look to jettison P Barber as well. Another shifty guy like Mckissic or Gibson who can also catch would be best
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I disagree. We need a pound it goal line guy and unless we draft or pick up that guy, we should keep Barber. He literally almost always got us the 1-2 yds or the short goal line yds we needed. Gotta have a bruiser for those situations.
 
Boone said:
I disagree. We need a pound it goal line guy and unless we draft or pick up that guy, we should keep Barber. He literally almost always got us the 1-2 yds or the short goal line yds we needed. Gotta have a bruiser for those situations.
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Don’t get me wrong I like the thumper types, just think we could do better than Barber. I absolutely loved when Sellers got a bunch of carries, was fun watching him truck people!

 
I think after what we have seen in terms of trade assets given over for quarterbacks in this market, we should take a qb in the draft where we are in Round 1 or 2 or move up to the back end of the top 10 to select a higher rated passer coming out.

But given the odds of what we have seen in past years, with all of the quarterbacks coming out and anticipated being taken in the first 5-7 picks, there is usually one or two guys that turn out to be among the best of the bunch and they are usually taken from #10-30 in Round 1 (Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers) or in Round 2 (Drew Brees) or even later (Russell Wilson at #3).

Mac Jones could be that type of player that is just a clutch performer and while he worked with uber talent at Alabama he was also a guy that managed the 'symphony' very well.

He can make the throws but he also has mobility which is becoming a requirement in today's game.

Mariota is done with his rookie deal and from here on out you have to pay him major dollars TO SEE IF he can be regular quarterback at age 27.

He failed to show that in Tennessee over the first 4 years of his career.

Darnold has played with a very bad team and the book very well may not have been written on him yet, but again you have to trade valuable assets to get him from the Jets and then figure on making a financial commitment to him as he comes off his rookie deal. And once again you are hoping it all clicks in a new setting.

Why not start with a 23 year old who you can develop for peanuts for 3 plus years and potentially get greater productivity playing with a better coordinator and quarterbacks coach?
 
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My visions of Sam Darnold in three scenarios:

1. Trade a #2 pick for Darnold and he bombs out and we have to look for another qb in 2022.

2. Trade a #2 pick for Darnold and he comes in and produces solid but not spectacular numbers. The team then has to decide whether that is prologue to further improvement/emergence or a plateau and THEN decide whether to offer him a large second contract.

3. Trade a #2 pick for Darnold and he comes in and firmly establishes himself as a top 15 starting quarterback with confidence the best is yet to come and we offer him a big second contract, confident it is the right decision.

My thought process is the percentages for scenarios #1 and #2 are the highest. The chance #3 comes to pass is in all likelihood 25-30%.

70% chance is we either wasted a high pick to acquire him or have a stark decision facing the club in re the cap rolling the dice on whether a guy whose statistics are OK to solid is worth a lot more money.

I would rather move up or stay at #19 and take a 23 year old qb in the draft and have 3 or 4 years to evaluate him at lower relative cost.
 
I would rather take Christian Darrisaw in the draft and take a shot with a later pick. I don't think the guy is going to be there at 19 and I don't think we want to spend what it would take to get either Lawrence or Wilson, those two being what I think are the two best prospects in this draft. I also don't trade a 2nd round pick for Darnold. I'd consider our 'extra' 3rd round pick just to get him in and see if he was a product of bad coaching.

Obviously if the 'right' guy falls to 19 you take him and you don't feel bad about it. I just don't think the 'right' guy will fall outside of the top 5, as I don't have a lot of confidence in Jones or Lance, and I just don't get the warm and fuzzies with Fields. Now I'm clearly not on the coaching staff so if one of those last 3 guys is there at 12 and they're absolutely in love with him, then yeah, go get him... but we won't know that til draft day... and Free Agency starts on the 17th, our expectations could be completely different depending on what they do between Mar 17 and April 29
 
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