Not sure I follow on "two more wins" thing, micks. We're still on the short end of the PPG stick. The good news is that while last year we "lost" on average 27.4 - 18.8, and this year we're "only" losing 24.3 - 21.9, showing a nice net gain, the bad is that we're still losing.
Two more wins would put at 7-4. I know averages are skewed badly by even one blowout in a sample size as small as 11 games, but I'm guessing there aren't many 7-4 teams still getting outscored by average PPG.
Be an interesting thing for someone to look up ... someone other than me that is.
OK lets see if I can be more clear. I get what you're saying. Here's what I'm trying to say:
From my experience, (not stat chart based, but could be if like you say someone else can create it) when looking at the standings, I like to focus on the pts for and pts allowed, as most of us do. Typically, and almost 100% of the time, the division leader has the lowest pts allowed, but not always the most pts for. So I focus on the pts allowed as my guide to the teams place in the season at year end. This year, the margin is so low that it shows we are competitive defensively, and why we are in the mix for the division, but not by much.
Analyzing pts for, my experience has told me empirically, that we avg 16-20 pts then we end up with X wins, usually 4-6. Once we get to 20-25 pts/gm, we most likely will have 6-8 wins. 25-30 you are in the 8-10 win category. Over 30 we are winning the division 11-13 wins. You can see this doesn't take into any account of the pts allowed, as you have in your net plus or minus analysis. I have in the past, never mixed or commingled the two. Typically, for statistical analysis, one wouldn't combine different stats into a hybrid and draw conclusions. But I did after your post, thinking it makes sense, thinking we were indeed 6 pts per game better this year. Later I had my doubts about that. That's why I said "somethings wrong with this picture" after my post.
The problem with this year is that it is a highly unusual one, where we have many teams with poor records (18 teams with 5 wins or less, and 7 more teams with 6 wins), somewhat of a statistical anomaly for the NFL. And I heard on the local radio that this has become a trend in the nfl and more teams with losing records each year are playing for something. (This would totally account for why I can't "pick em" worth a darn this year ha ha ;-) The net gain you speak of in my mind indicates we have improved as a team, but doesn't speak to winning the division imho, because we are still net negative, our margin of pts allowed (compared to our div opponents) is not a material advantage over our opponents, and our pts for, like you say, is still too low to warrant a div title (again this year is a statistical anomaly).
Here is another bit of interesting statistical data. Since the league went to 16 games, there have only been two teams to win the division with 7 wins (no one has won with 6). Last year the panthers and 2010 Seahawks. Three 8 win teams won their division during this time. That's 5 teams out of 244 total division winners in the last 36 years.
so the question remains, which statistical category is more of a leading indicator of winning the division, pts for or pts allowed. No question, pts allowed is our key to winning the division. No knock on Kirk or Gruden, just the stats and facts. However I still conclude that since we are now over 21 pts per game, we should have at least two more wins. But alas, this year is unlike any other.
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