QB Intangibles: What the Combine can't measure....

[Boone]

With tonight's Blind Pig pod on the QBs available in the 2024 NFL Draft looming large, I have been thinking a lot about why finding a true franchise QB even with the highest of draft choices seems to be such an insurmountable challenge even for those with the most expertise in the world.

Never before in the history of the NFL have draft decision-makers had more tools, knowledge, and data at their fingertips.

A quick look at QBs drafted within the first 10 picks of the 1st round of the NFL Draft over the past 20 years is revealing:

2003 - Carson Palmer (#1) by Cincinnati Bengals
2004 - Eli Manning (#1) by San Diego Chargers (was immediately traded to the New York Giants)
2005 - Alex Smith (#1) by San Francisco 49ers
2006 - Vince Young (#3) by Tennessee Titans, Matt Leinart (#10) by Arizona Cardinals
2007 - JaMarcus Russell (#1) by Oakland Raiders
2008 - Matt Ryan (#3) by Atlanta Falcons
2009 - Matthew Stafford (#1) by Detroit Lions, Mark Sanchez (#5) by New York Jets
2010 - Sam Bradford (#1) by St. Louis Rams
2011 - Cam Newton (#1) by Carolina Panthers, Jake Locker (#8) by Tennessee Titans, Blaine Gabbert (#10) by Jacksonville Jaguars
2012 - Andrew Luck (#1) by Indianapolis Colts, Robert Griffin III (#2) by Washington Redskins, Ryan Tannehill (#8) by Miami Dolphins
2013 - None
2014 - Blake Bortles (#3) by Jacksonville Jaguars
2015 - Jameis Winston (#1) by Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Marcus Mariota (#2) by Tennessee Titans
2016 - Jared Goff (#1) by Los Angeles Rams, Carson Wentz (#2) by Philadelphia Eagles
2017 - Mitchell Trubisky (#2) by Chicago Bears, Patrick Mahomes (#10) by Kansas City Chiefs
2018 - Baker Mayfield (#1) by Cleveland Browns, Sam Darnold (#3) by New York Jets, Josh Allen (#7) by Buffalo Bills, Josh Rosen (#10) by Arizona Cardinals
2019 - Kyler Murray (#1) by Arizona Cardinals, Daniel Jones (#6) by New York Giants
2020 - Joe Burrow (#1) by Cincinnati Bengals, Tua Tagovailoa (#5) by Miami Dolphins, Justin Herbert (#6) by Los Angeles Chargers
2021 - Trevor Lawrence (#1) by Jacksonville Jaguars, Zach Wilson (#2) by New York Jets, Trey Lance (#3) by San Francisco 49ers
2022 - None (first QB taken was Kenny Pickett at pick #20)
2023 - Bryce Young (#1) by Carolina Panthers, C.J. Stroud (#2) by Houston Texans, Anthony Richardson (#4) by Indianapolis Colts

When selecting a QB with a top 10 pick, the expectation for any GM is that they are drafting a future star and long-term starter. Without getting into analysis that is beyond the scope of what I want to talk about, of the 38 top 10 selections made over the past 20 years, NFL GMs found a star/long-term starter less than half the time. Even amongst long-term starters, the spectrum of talent runs from the spectacular to the ho-hum (or in simpler terms, from Pat Mahomes to Ryan Tannehill).

Given the high-stakes nature of top 10 QB decisions, NFL GMs are shockingly, jaw-droppingly unreliable decision makers.

Looking at the last decade, we've seen a couple of shifting trends. First of all, teams are drafting QB using a top 10 pick far more frequently. In the first decade above, more than 1 QB was taken in the top 10 just 4 times. Since then, only twice have teams not drafted at least 2 QBs and in 4 of the last 10 drafts have drafted at least 3 QBs within the top 10.

Despite better data availability, the birth of analytics, and an explosion of measures designed to turn player selection from art to science, GMs are no better at finding a star QB in the top 10 picks of the draft now than they were previously.

It's a crapshoot. Plain and simple.

How do we explain something so counter-intuitive?

I have a theory.

It's true that NFL decision-makers have more data, objective info, and expertise available to them than ever before. No doubt, with the advent of AI, some teams may even be leaning on non-human assets to help make their decisions. And yet, 2 of the 3 QBs selected in 2023's first 10 picks may be absolute busts.

I think one potential explanation is staring us right in the face.

The 'Intangibles'.

What makes Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes? There's no question, athletically, Mahomes has the goods. He is a superb athlete, capable of making all the throws required of an NFL QB. But the NFL garbage heap is littered with the remains of highly-drafted QBs you could say the exact same thing about. Why has Mahomes become a star, while other equally physically gifted QBs are distant and irrelevant memories?

It's the 'Intangibles'.

By it's very definition, something that is 'intangible' is hard to define. According to the Oxford English Dictionary, intangible means 'unable to be touched or grasped, not having physical presence'. What makes Mahomes Mahomes was never measured at the NFL combine.

There are a lot of ways to get at what I'm trying to define. The intangibles that I think are so often missed in these draft assessments, by GMs all over the NFL, over and over and over again, consist of a number of things. A cursory and admittedly woefully inadequate attempt to name them might include such descriptors as:

• The 'will to win'
• Grit and determination
• An overwhelming sense of ownership and accountability
• Ability to put a team on one's back in crunch time
• Performing best when required the most
• Loves the pressure of the moment
• Leadership by example
• On the field generalship
• Balls and toughness
• Prevailing even when play is subpar
• Internal drive for perfection
• Ability to inspire/raise the level of play of those around him

There's not a single item on that list that, technically, is measureable. Yet these intangibles may literally be the primary factors that differentiate great NFL QBs from forgettable ones, and yet to my knowledge, no NFL team has found a way to effectively quantify or measure them. Tom Brady was not on any NFL GM's radar because none of his 'measureables' screamed future star. Not one of them. And yet, Brady is regarded by most as the greatest QB who ever lived. Read my list of intangibles and check off the ones Tom Brady exemplifies?

Every. Damn. One. Of. Them.

Apply my attempted trait-list to every QB currently in the HOF. It is going to hold up pretty well. Were some, even most of those QBs also superior athletes with incredible physical gifts? Of course. But I will die on this hill... it was their intangibles that got them into the HOF.

I'm not a MENSA member. Talent scouts, coaches, GMs - they all understand at some level the importance of the intangibles. Unfortunately in this age where data and tech are king, I think we've muted and diminished the importance of these intangibles when it comes to the QB position. Who ARE these guys - at a gut level - what makes them tick, and which of them have the drive, determination, and intangibles to prevail more often than they fail, and come back from their failures even more driven and determined?

That's the guy you draft.

The Washington Commanders have one of the biggest and most impactful franchise decisions of the past 30 years facing them on April 25th.

All of the top QB prospects in the 2024 draft are special athletes. The ability of Adam Peters and Company to find a QB who can make us a threat to go all the way for the next decade plus will ride on their assessment of, not raw physical gifts, but of these intangibles.

 

[Neophyte]

Nicely stated, brother Boone!!

 

[Chris]

You have encapsulated and underlined my argument for JJ McCarthy.

Is drafting McCarthy at #2 an over-draft? Hell no. No great QB has ever been over-drafted.

JJ is going to provide some team a QB that will be talked positively about for many years to come and many GMs will be rueing their failure to see the forest for the trees.

 

[Chris]

From Dane Brugler’s The Beast: 2024 NFL Draft Guide (released today on The Athletic)-

 

[Boone]

He meditates. He talks about his love for the game. His prep. His commitment to do whatever it takes to get better.

Only caution (not specific to McCarthy, but generally) is that it's not about what a player says, especially in pressers or off the field. It's about who they really are, especially on the field, in key moments, under pressure and facing adversity. That's the part that is tough to measure and calculate.

 

[Bulldog]

It's a difficult process.

Sometimes I think it may be easier for a good GM to stay away from a certain prospect that has a flaw or shortcoming than to necessarily pick out the one that is going to be the biggest star out of a group of 3-4 passers coming out in a single year.

Teams though often disregard red flags on players and develop tunnel vision, even good ones at times.

Trey Lance was a great athlete that only started 13 games in college and played against less than top competition. This to me on the surface was a VERY risky pick and especially so because SF had to trade up to the #3 pick to select him.

Robert Griffin III likewise was a great athlete that operated in a pinball system where stats were gaudy but projectability to the NFL was questionable. Again, an especially risky move as Washington had to give up a generation of picks to move up to #2.

Kyler Murray charitably is 5'10 and 205. Most quarterbacks this size have trouble finding passing lanes, getting passes deflected at the line, and just staying healthy. What has happened to Murray in the NFL? All of the above. You can make the argument Kingsbury got fired in Arizona because Murray couldn't stay on the field consistently.

For a team like the Jets who have failed spectacularly to find a young passer I went back and looked at Zach Wilson's college draft profile. While noting his 30 plus touchdown last year at BYU, the profile noted Wilson 'depended too much on off schedule playmaking at BYU and needs to further develop his pocket skills and processing ability to reach his potential at the NFL level.'

As an armchair GM I read one or two scouting reports like this and I pass on a guy like Wilson. Being able to process at game speed from the pocket is the anchor skill in being successful in the NFL. To ignore that and expect a player to play against his instincts in the game to me is a fool's errand.

 

[Boone]

I have watched as many interviews of Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy as I've been able to find, trying to get a better bead on who these guys really are. McCarthy seems to be an easy read. He's very at ease with himself, seems to know who he is - if all other things were equal (ie... actual QB talent) this would be an easy choice. Maye seems like a smart kid who says all the right things. I cannot get a bead on Jayden Daniels and that worries me a little. Coaches and teammates are generally going to say positive things about a fellow player. The question is - what do they really think and what do they believe and say off camera? I see some stuff with Daniels where he seems to be a 'build a brand' type guy who loves all of the hype around himself. That may not be a big deal, or it may be a huge deal. I can't get a bead on his raw intelligence, or what's most important to him (money? fame? winning? personal achievement?). On the field, he seems to be the most alpha of all these guys. But in terms of who he really is, it's hard to assess.

Hopefully these are the types of things that get clarified during their individual team visits.

 

[Bulldog]

Pro game is still a different sport.

The game is faster and time to throw is much reduced.

THAT variable is hard to assess.

A guy like Nix did great with 3 plus seconds to throw behind a good line.

How does he do with 2.1 seconds against the Ravens defense where his LT loses some of the battles?