Predict the 2012 NFC East Standings

[Neophyte]

Something to remember...last year the NFC East played two relatively weak divisions in the AFC East and the NFC West. This year we get the AFC North and the NFC South. Two very different schedules in my mind, assuming there are not titanic shifts in the strength of the teams in those divisions.

 

[Nobody]

Cowboys 10-6
Redskins 9-7
Eagles 8-8
Giants 7-9

 

[Om]

All four teams go 8-8.

Redskins win division on strength of division record.

Goodell disqualifies Redskins from winning NFCE. Reached for comment in Bahamas on Mara's yacht, Goodell declines to comment.

Giants win NFCE.

Eagles finish second because Mara don't like Jones either.

Dallas finishes ahead of Redskins because, well, that's the way the universe works.

Redskins caboose NFCE again.

It is what it is.

 

[Neophyte]

Who are you and what have you done with my eternally optimistic friend Om?

 

[Om]

Oh, I don't know. I think that in this division, with a rookie QB, going 8-8 and ringing up the the best NFCE record would be an acceptable launch to the RGIII Era.

The rest was just fluff to make conversation and try to out-wet-blanket Henry.

 

[Neophyte]

FYI - just heard on The Herd that Vegas has released lines on every single NFL game for the coming season. They have the Skins winning 6-7 games, the Eagles favored in 13, the Giants breaking even and winning a Wild Card spot, and the Cowboys below .500.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

FYI - just heard on The Herd that Vegas has released lines on every single NFL game for the coming season. They have the Skins winning 6-7 games, the Eagles favored in 13, the Giants breaking even and winning a Wild Card spot, and the Cowboys below .500.

Eagles
Giants
Redskins
Cowboys

Uh huh, uh huh, uh huh uh huh uh huh! :tooting own horn:

 

[servumtuum]

Sorry, Lanky, couldn't pass this one up.

 

[Nobody]

Vegas never gets it right though, so don't get too excited Lanky. Remember, these are the same turds wh predicted a Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowl for like 12 straight years.

Not only that, but if anyone here truly believes RG3 only gives us 1-2 wins, raise your hand so I can smack your balls with a baseball bat.

 

[Om]

I know I don't really need to say this, but I'm going to anyway. Vegas odds don't mean that smart bookies believe teams will finish in that order. It means smart bookies think WE, the mouth-breathing, farting masses, think the teams will finish in that order, and thus intend to bet our dollars to prove to others how smart we are.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

I know I don't really need to say this, but I'm going to anyway. Vegas odds don't mean that smart bookies believe teams will finish in that order. It means smart bookies think WE, the mouth-breathing, farting masses, think the teams will finish in that order, and thus intend to bet our dollars to prove to others how smart we are.

You're half-right. They also want to be close to the actual event outcome, so that people bet on either side. Vegas is in it to break even in the sports book - for every dollar that gets bet on team A winning, Vegas wants a dollar bet on team B. They accomplish this by creating pretty dang accurate spreads. They are off sometimes, but they are usually within a few points, and its not an accident.

 

[Om]

You too are half right.

They create those spreads based on what they believe the betting public will bet. That knowledge comes from a variety of areas---only one of which is their own analysis of the actual football. They are observers and predictors of human nature (betting humans) more than they are skilled prognosticators of on-field events.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

You too are half right.

They create those spreads based on what they believe the betting public will bet. That knowledge comes from a variety of areas---only one of which is their own analysis of the actual football. They are observers and predictors of human nature (betting humans) more than they are skilled prognosticators of on-field events.

So does that mean together we are 100% right? Or since my half-right is actually a quarter right, since it was the other half of your half-right, we are 75% right?

I think it has more to do with the actual outcomes than the way they think the public will bet, but I'm sure that has something to do with it. However, they are not psychiatrists; they stick to what the known facts are when it comes to sports betting - on-field performance. They scrutinize the on-field performance down to the most minute detail, and base their betting lines on this.

 

[Om]

Yes, they scrutinize on-field performance. When New England plays Cleveland, in New England, in December, they favor New England. If Brady is out, they STILL favor New England, though they skew the line down.

Oddsmakers don't give a damn who wins. They care about balancing the line so bets come in equally on both sides. They base the line on the above, but also, to at least an equal degree, on what they know public perception to be.

http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/sports-betting2.htm

Oddsmakers don't try to predict the outcome of the game when setting point spreads. If a team is favored by seven points, that doesn't mean that the oddsmaker necessarily thinks it will win by seven points. The oddsmaker's goal when setting the line is to keep an equal number of bets on both sides of the game. The betting public's perception of the game can be as important as the actual comparison of the two teams.

Oddsmakers are so intent on keeping the action even that they actually move the line in response to betting patterns. If too many bets are coming in for the underdog, then that team might have been given too many points, so the line is moved...

 

[Bulldog]

How many injuries are there going to be on each squad?

That's often the deciding factor.

One move I liked that went under the radar was the Cowboys signing of Kyle Orton.

Romo misses games. He has consistently.

So does Vick except the Eagles don't have a Plan B.

Ditto for NY where it's anyone's guess whether David Carr can still play.
Posted via BGO Mobile Device

 

[China]

One move I liked that went under the radar was the Cowboys signing of Kyle Orton.

Romo misses games. He has consistently.

Wait, you like the move? You mean you want the Cowboys to strengthen their team and not fail?

For shame.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Wait, you like the move? You mean you want the Cowboys to strengthen their team and not fail?

For shame.

I think he's being facetious - Orton sucks. It will be nice to have a ****ty replacement for Romo when he goes down.

 

[hail2skins]

Giants play well historically when desperate and hungry. Coming off a Super Bowl victory, the desperation won't be there.

The last time the Giants won a Super Bowl, they started the next year something like 11-1 before stupid Plaxico shot himself and the offense went down the toilet.

As for this season:

Giants 11-5
Eagles 10-6
Redskins 7-9
Cowboys 6-10

 

[Bulldog]

The Eagles have taken over the mantle of being the team trying to buy a championship.

From the moves for Nnamdi and Cromartie, to the original signings of Peters and Jason Babin, the Eagles have been adding free agents every year in hopes of finding the right combination and advance in the playoffs.

This year though they have left themselves thin on offense with little behind Vick, who tends to get dinged over 16 games.

And despite several free agent moves the OL isn't one that scares most teams.

Demetress Bell was an emergency move after the injury to Jason Peters.

If he starts for Peters, the Redskins rushers are going to have a field day against Vick.

 

[Fear The Spear]

The Skins will have the best defense in the East

Not with our secondary