Poll: The Future of Sam Howell

[Solitary Man]

Ok well these last few weeks have been extremely rough for Sam. We have to be honest now. This next regime is probably going to want to get a QB in the draft. Whether they keep Sam to compete since he is cheap to keep still or trade him, this is the reality. Sam is probably not going to be the QB to start the season next year.

Do I believe that EB and the staff have ruined Sam? I’m leaning yes. He is extremely tough, and always has been, but he needs a break. Not just from playing, but playing for this staff.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I have so many divergent and varying thoughts, but I think the key factor is this one: will the team be in position to grab a top 3 QB in the NFL draft, and if so, do they like that player?

Let's leave Sam aside for just a minute: there are inherent benefits to drafting a QB high IF you think that QB possesses franchise QB skills:
1. It re-sets the clock. You have that QB under a rookie contract for 5 years. Sam is going into year 3 of a 4 year deal, and you probably have to extend him after next season if he's starting.
2. It's rare to be in the position to pick at the absolute top of the draft and get that level of prospect.
3. It focuses the entire organization on one common goal: you KNOW who the guy is, and what you have to do to try to develop him.

I personally like Sam. But I fear he has been Ramseyed. And when a QB is Ramseyed, it's rare that they get out of it. The happy feet, bailing on clean pockets, not trusting your eyes, always looking for where the hit is going to come from to blow you up doesn't just disappear.

There is no way I think a new GM/Coach can go into next season saying "Sam is the guy." There's enough evidence he's broken nobody is going to take that bet. So they're going to do SOMEHTING. And the question really is going to be what options they have in the draft.

If they're picking #2 I think they're sprinting to the podium to draft Maye and not looking back. I don't see a way they can get to #1 realistically. And I think the Bears are going to take Williams. However, if they take Maye, the Commander's intern who is running cards is sprinting to the podium to draft Williams.

If they're picking #3, then it's A LOT more complicated.

Sam's future is tied to who they have a chance to draft when.

Personally, there's no way I'm betting on Sam for another season without a REALLY GOOD backup option and a real competition.

 

[burgold]

I unfortunately agree.

I like Sam a lot and think he might be able to come back, but if you wind up at three and it goes Caleb, Harrison, then you need to take Maye or trade down for a fortune in picks. Howell has just fallen too hard in recent weeks and Brisset's showing has demonstrated some of that is him. Now, I do think with a better line, better coaching, and a tight end he can make the jump you see many qbs take in their second season, but then again, he might not. He might have been Ramseyed. It's also possible he's gotten a little turnover shy and that's the cause of his hesitation. The latter can be overcome as can the former. It's just harder to get over PTSD (no offense intended with the comparison.)

 

[burgold]

I'd also let the draft come to us.

If it's
1. Caleb Williams
2. Drake Maye
3. Us

Then, I would look at trading down or taking Fashanu/Alt

 

[Boone]

Voice - I think a lot of that sounds exactly right - except for this

The happy feet, bailing on clean pockets, not trusting your eyes, always looking for where the hit is going to come from to blow you up doesn't just disappear.

I think that’s completely wrong. Look at Brock Purdy last night. That was as unsure and disastrous a QB performance as you’ll ever see. But in the grand scheme of things it means nothing.

Howell has played some really good games this season. He’s definitely played poorly the past 3-4 weeks. But he’s getting zero help and has taken more hits and sacks than any QB in recent memory.

He’s played badly enough to call into serious question whether he can be the guy. He’s probably played badly enough we’ll go QB in the draft. But I’m going to push back hard on the Ramsey analogy and the idea he’s ‘ruined’. It makes no more sense to proclaim he’s done after a bad 4 game stretch than it made to proclaim him a franchise QB after 4 good ones. And while I get Ramsey was a fan fav, he really never looked like a potential NFL starter - not even for a little while. So much so Gibbs yanked him permanently after 1 offseason and a half of live football.

I won’t be at all surprised if we go QB now, because the questions surrounding Howell’s ceiling are now so front and center. I also wouldn’t be shocked if Howell eventually becomes a very good NFL QB whether here or somewhere else.

I would not underestimate just how incompetent this coaching staff is and what a new regime might be able to do handed the raw material that is Sam Howell. Whether Howell gets another year as a starter is a big question. He may be one of those guys that has to grow into it and wait for an injury to a starter down the road. Or perhaps he won’t ever develop. Only time will tell.

 

[Chris]

Many rushing to the podium to change their votes from a week ago.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I unfortunately agree.

I like Sam a lot and think he might be able to come back, but if you wind up at three and it goes Caleb, Harrison, then you need to take Maye or trade down for a fortune in picks. Howell has just fallen too hard in recent weeks and Brisset's showing has demonstrated some of that is him. Now, I do think with a better line, better coaching, and a tight end he can make the jump you see many qbs take in their second season, but then again, he might not. He might have been Ramseyed. It's also possible he's gotten a little turnover shy and that's the cause of his hesitation. The latter can be overcome as can the former. It's just harder to get over PTSD (no offense intended with the comparison.)

I like Sam too.

Here's something I didn't mention: he's going to be here. He's on a 5th year rookie deal. There is absolutely no advantage to cutting him. Unless somebody is going to give you a 4th+, there's no reason to trade him.

So, he's here. And he's cheap. It's a good thing he doesn't eat steak, because he's not going to be getting a big raise anytime soon.

The challenge is going to be, as you said, figuring out what you can fix and what is permanent damage. The other thing which is concerning is he took a lot of sacks in college. Now, the NFL and college games are basically different sports. But, as his sack number has decreased, so has his productivity.

What somebody needs to figure out is if Sam has the fast processing speed needed to be a starting QB in the NFL. At this point, I don't think that's known. If a QB can't process what he's seeing immediately and react immediately, he's going to be smooshed, (as Mr. Miagi said) "just like grape."

And we're seeing with Brissett playing, there are things available to him. But he's not getting to them, he's not seeing them, and the protection is falling in on him. That's not good.

Now, Kirk Cousins was benched multiple times because he couldn't stop throwing the ball to the other team. Brees was so bad the Chargers drafted Rivers to replace him, and Brees was probably the #3 QB of his generation behind Brady and Peyton. So, a QB CAN get benched and develop.

The question is, has there been lasting damage done that can be undone, and how long will that take. Or does he just not have the fast processing speed needed, and there's no hope.

I have no idea. I was leaning towards "he can be fixed" but I'm starting to fear the "he's broken and there's no putting him back together again."

I'd also let the draft come to us.

If it's
1. Caleb Williams
2. Drake Maye
3. Us

Then, I would look at trading down or taking Fashanu/Alt

Harrinson Jr. is the best player in the draft by most accounts. NOTE: I am NOT a draftnik, and I don't watch college football. And maybe that's not actually the case, but people who I listen to and respect their opinion seem to think he's the best player in the draft. He won't go #1 overall because somebody is taking a QB #1.

I would not take a tackle in front of Harrinson Jr. And I am Mr. "Draft OL." I'd be fine if they drafted OL in 5 consecutive rounds in the draft.

But, if Harrison is there, you either SPRINT up to grab him, or you trade down 1-2 spots ONLY so you can grab one of the best LT available.

I wouldn't consider trading down more than 1-2 spots, though, because then you leave the top tier of players. If they have a top 5 pick, they need a top 5 prospect.

If they can get Fashanu/Alt + a 2025 first vs. Harrison, I'd listen to that. Especially because that would give them 2 firsts in 2025, so if they don't solve the QB problem in 2024, they have a bazooka loaded to move up if needed to get one in 2025.

 

[Chris]

Being a 5th round pick, Sam only has a 4 year deal and I don’t think he qualifies for any 5th year option.

 

[Chris]

All I know for certain is that I’m over having Rudy’s at the QB position.

I love moxie, competitiveness, toughness, etc as much as everyone else, but I would like a QB with those things along with height and arm strength please.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Voice - I think a lot of that sounds exactly right - except for this

The happy feet, bailing on clean pockets, not trusting your eyes, always looking for where the hit is going to come from to blow you up doesn't just disappear.

Let me re-phrase: that's going to take time to fix if it is fixable. It's not something which can be fixed in-season. It's going to take a lot of practice reps. Basically, they need to re-build his confidence, because it's completely shattered.

He did play extremely well at times earlier in the season, and it seemed like he was able to trust his eyes, pick himself up when he got shellacked, and keep going.

What worries me is the number of hits he's taken has led to him not trusting himself. Add to that the turnovers, pick-6's in 3 straight games, I think his confidence is completely shot.

It manifests itself by the things I listed above.

And I don't think those things just go away, as I said. They CAN be overcome. But it's going to take a lot of time, reps, and rebuilding of confidence.

I also think it's possible it never comes back. But I don't know that for sure.

One other thing: at the beginning of the Jets game, his first 3 passes were just fine. One was dropped by Samuel. The second hit Thomas in the hands and it ended up as an INT. On the third, Samuel fell down as he made a break and the ball was nowhere near him. And I think THAT also rocked his confidence.

And he started to revert to holding the ball and making sure the guy was open and could catch it.

The supporting cast has been absolutely abysmal.

I would not underestimate just how incompetent this coaching staff is and what a new regime might be able to do handed the raw material that is Sam Howell. Whether Howell gets another year as a starter is a big question. He may be one of those guys that has to grow into it and wait for an injury to a starter down the road. Or perhaps he won’t ever develop. Only time will tell.

I don't at all underestimate the putrid nature of the situation Sam is in.

The situation he was put in was just stupid on steroids:
1. Learn a new offense in year 2.
2. The offense you're learning is basically the Andy Reid offense, which is one of the wordiest offenses in the NFL, and one of the most complex. Reid has said it takes 3 years to get the offense. Reid is a good coach. Reid knows things. We should listen to him about his own offense.
3. The guy teaching the offense has never done it before.
4. The guy calling the offense has never done that before either.
5. We're going to bring in a bunch of schlubs to play OL. We're not even going to try at LG, the guy who isn't very good and can't stay healthy (Charles) will compete with the 5th round pick who can't move (Paul) and that's our solution to that.
6. We're not going to hire an experienced OL coach.
7. We've got to win.

Ron get's an F------- for allowing this scenario to play out for Sam. Hindsight being 20/20, they should have hired somebody from the Coryell tree so Sam didn't have to learn a new offense in a must-win year. They also probably should have signed some better OL players.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Being a 5th round pick, Sam only has a 4 year deal and I don’t think he qualifies for any 5th year option.

This is correct. He is eligible to be extended after next season, though.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

All I know for certain is that I’m over having Rudy’s at the QB position.

I love moxie, competitiveness, toughness, etc as much as everyone else, but I would like a QB with those things along with height and arm strength please.

The only one there I would say I care less about is height, with a limit. 5-10? Not for me. 6 foot and above? Yeah, sure.

Steve Young and Drew Brees were fine and short-ish for QBs. Both had REALLY good arms, phenomenal accuracy, and knew exactly where to go with the ball IMMEDIATELY.

I heard Young in an interview where he was talking to a coach, I think it was Holmgren, where he said to Holmgrent, "I can't see the receiver" and Holmgren said something like "then you have to know exactly where they will be."

But to your overall point, yeah, I'm also done with the projects. I want a guy who's got the tools.

 

[Chris]

The only one there I would say I care less about is height, with a limit. 5-10? Not for me. 6 foot and above? Yeah, sure.

Steve Young and Drew Brees were fine and short-ish for QBs. Both had REALLY good arms, phenomenal accuracy, and knew exactly where to go with the ball IMMEDIATELY.

I heard Young in an interview where he was talking to a coach, I think it was Holmgren, where he said to Holmgrent, "I can't see the receiver" and Holmgren said something like "then you have to know exactly where they will be."

But to your overall point, yeah, I'm also done with the projects. I want a guy who's got the tools.

Steve Young was 6’2 and that would be my minimum standard.

 

[Boone]

We also need to keep in mind that players are taller and bigger than ever before. In terms of field vision and batted balls, being a short QB isn’t a good attribute.

 

[Boone]

Let me re-phrase: that's going to take time to fix if it is fixable. It's not something which can be fixed in-season. It's going to take a lot of practice reps. Basically, they need to re-build his confidence, because it's completely shattered.

He did play extremely well at times earlier in the season, and it seemed like he was able to trust his eyes, pick himself up when he got shellacked, and keep going.

What worries me is the number of hits he's taken has led to him not trusting himself. Add to that the turnovers, pick-6's in 3 straight games, I think his confidence is completely shot.

It manifests itself by the things I listed above.

And I don't think those things just go away, as I said. They CAN be overcome. But it's going to take a lot of time, reps, and rebuilding of confidence.

I also think it's possible it never comes back. But I don't know that for sure.

One other thing: at the beginning of the Jets game, his first 3 passes were just fine. One was dropped by Samuel. The second hit Thomas in the hands and it ended up as an INT. On the third, Samuel fell down as he made a break and the ball was nowhere near him. And I think THAT also rocked his confidence.

And he started to revert to holding the ball and making sure the guy was open and could catch it.

The supporting cast has been absolutely abysmal.


I don't at all underestimate the putrid nature of the situation Sam is in.

The situation he was put in was just stupid on steroids:
1. Learn a new offense in year 2.
2. The offense you're learning is basically the Andy Reid offense, which is one of the wordiest offenses in the NFL, and one of the most complex. Reid has said it takes 3 years to get the offense. Reid is a good coach. Reid knows things. We should listen to him about his own offense.
3. The guy teaching the offense has never done it before.
4. The guy calling the offense has never done that before either.
5. We're going to bring in a bunch of schlubs to play OL. We're not even going to try at LG, the guy who isn't very good and can't stay healthy (Charles) will compete with the 5th round pick who can't move (Paul) and that's our solution to that.
6. We're not going to hire an experienced OL coach.
7. We've got to win.

Ron get's an F------- for allowing this scenario to play out for Sam. Hindsight being 20/20, they should have hired somebody from the Coryell tree so Sam didn't have to learn a new offense in a must-win year. They also probably should have signed some better OL players.

I really am on board with 99% of your comments brother. I just think a lot of Howell’s late season struggling has more to do with what his coaches are telling him and how they are preparing him than some innate fatal flaw. They’ve put way too much on a first year starters shoulders.

 

[DieselPwr44]

Why is it the offense is one dimensional with Sam and Brissett gets the benefit of a running game?
Eric Bieniemy has failed as an OC. He has a fatal flaw: He doesn't know how to scheme to protect a young QB, IMO.

Another in a long line of coaches we've had here that can't scheme to what little talent they do have.

 

[Neophyte]

I totally agree that Sam has lost confidence. My question is what has he lost confidence in? Himself or the offense?

I ask because the Pick-6 against Miami wasn't on Sam - it was on the play call and the offense. Miami all but knew the play call like they had been part of our huddle.

If I'm in Sam's shoes and I'm hearing that from opposing defenses, I'm not sure how much confidence I have in the offense and the players around me anymore.

 

[burgold]

Lack of confidence in the play call could explain why he's holding the ball again. During that good stretch, his execution was much faster. There's something out there he doesn't trust: the play, himself, his receivers, all of the above?

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I really am on board with 99% of your comments brother. I just think a lot of Howell’s late season struggling has more to do with what his coaches are telling him and how they are preparing him than some innate fatal flaw. They’ve put way too much on a first year starters shoulders.

What's interesting is you can actually draw a straight line to his struggles and the increased attempts to run the ball early. It's wild. When they threw the ball on every down, Sam got into rhythm and was better. It's when they tried to take more off of him when that changed in a meaningful way.

I don't disagree with you at all that the coaches are to blame in all of this. My question is just can he recover? I don't know. I hope so. And I hope it is here. But I don't know if he can, even with a better coaching staff and better surrounding cast.

I totally agree that Sam has lost confidence. My question is what has he lost confidence in? Himself or the offense?

I ask because the Pick-6 against Miami wasn't on Sam - it was on the play call and the offense. Miami all but knew the play call like they had been part of our huddle.

If I'm in Sam's shoes and I'm hearing that from opposing defenses, I'm not sure how much confidence I have in the offense and the players around me anymore.

I'll add, has he lost confidence in his teammates. And I wouldn't blame him if he had. The OL is terrible, and his pass catchers drop as many passes as they catch. His first INT against the Jets went right through Logan Thomas' hands, and the first pass of the game was a drop by Samuel. I wouldn't be at all surprised if after the INT, in his head he was going "here we go again!"

The Miami pick-6 was partially play call but 70% that Wylie is just terrible. He had a DE lined up outside of him, in theory knew the play call, and literally took 2 steps the other way. I guarantee you it's not drawn up that way. Wylie's first job would have been to get hands on the DE in his "zone."

The play call itself isn't terrible. Every team in the league runs WR screens. However, they disguise them better, and that's on EB for not disguising them and being predictable.

But my God, Wylie just completely biffed on it. He didn't do his job at all and let a player go right by him into the passing lane. And it's not like it was a reach block. He was standing RIGHT THERE. Wylie almost had to scurry out of his way else he block him by accident.

As a side-note, that was Wylie's worst game. He was also directly responsible for a couple of the sacks, was pathetic in the run game. He almost single handedly derailed the offense.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Lack of confidence in the play call could explain why he's holding the ball again. During that good stretch, his execution was much faster. There's something out there he doesn't trust: the play, himself, his receivers, all of the above?

One thing which would be interesting to track: how many more "known passing situations" is he in now vs. when we were in the "good stretch."

Our OL can't pass protect in known passing situations at all.

We do better when we pass in even situations.

Actually, same with the run game: we can't run in known running situations either.

The OL is just bad. Offensively, it's sunk the season. The defense is the reason for the record, but the OL is the player related reason for the offensive struggles.