Overall Draft Analysis and Draft Grades

[burgold]

Round 1: No. 2- Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Round 2: No. 36- Jer’zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
Round 2: No, 50. - (from PHI through NO)- Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
Round 2: No. 53 (from PHI)-Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State
Round 3: No 67. Brandon Coleman, G, TCU
Round 3: No. 100 (from SF)-Luke McCaffrey, WR, Rice
Round 5: No. 139- Jordan Magee, LB, Temple
Round 5:No. 161- (from PHI through TB)-Dominique Hampton, S, Washington)
Round 7: No. 222-Javontae Jean-Baptiste, EDGE, Notre Dame

Thought it might be useful to have a thread to chat about how the draft went overall and how it is being viewed by BGO members and others. We have a bunch of threads that look at the trees. This one is designed to look at the forest.

One thing that really stands out to me is how decisive Peters seems to be. Very often, he turns in his card fast. While others like to use as much of the allotted time as possible, Washington frequently made their selection just a minute in. That suggests to me they really were excited about their pick. I guess it also means that they are doing less trade exploration or they do all their trade exploration before they are on the board. Whatever the reason, I like that we don't milk the clock and the trade down we executed seemed like a fine one.

As to the picks, I'm still scratching my head about the DT we chose first. I get BPA and that we really are drafting with an eye on the team two or three years down the road, but DT was the one position you'd think we might take off the board. Still, rotation is important these days and we've gotten nothing from Mathis who's always hurt and was probably a reach at two by Rivera anyway. Otherwise, they did well. They let the draft come to them and got high potential prospects in a lot of slots. I read a number of Day 2 post draft analysis this morning and I think a bunch of them are being consciously unfair. They boil down to, "Great player with amazing attributes, but I'm downgrading this because why the hell didn't they get a tackle!" Now, that's fine for fans, but professional analysts shouldn't do that. They should break down each player in a vacuum and then if they can downgrade the team if they want for overlooking or taking too long to address needs, but no player should get dinged because they play a different position.

It's hard for me to get a grasp on how well we did as a team. I don't watch enough college football and certainly don't study the tape, but I think I'm feeling good about the draft so far. We've checked a lot of boxes with players who've been productive and excelled in college. What do I want going forward on Day 3? I am still hungry for more offensive linemen and I wouldn't mind getting someone dynamic who can compete at PR/KR, but really I just want more good players, players who can rotate in now and have a chance to emerge later.

My hope was that we find four starters out of this draft. If I were to guess I think we've fallen short of that so far.

QB starter
DT rotational guy, but eventual starter a few years down the road.
CB nickel (now a days since everybody plays at least three wide receivers on almost every down maybe nickel ought to be considered a starter)
TE Starter?
G/T I'm guessing back up who will push to start
WR backup/rotational player? I don't think McCaffrey will be our day one slot guy, but maybe.

 

[Knightingale]

Now, take anything I say with a pinch of salt as I've only just woken up and am functioning on 5hrs of sleep!

First, thing that struck me was that we finally have a very definitive division between coach and front office. While it very much seems like there's a cohesive vision in place for the future, Peters wasn't so much just plugging gaps as stacking talent for the future. Where DQ may be looking at wins this year, Peters seems to have his eye on the future. That became obvious on the first pick on day 2, as the DT was admittedly a head scratcher. But I think Peters just looks at the roster and sees that it's fundamentally broken and needs reconstructing from the ground up. He's looking to build a Playoff Contender, not just looking to plug the holes in our existing roster to make do. So it became a draft of BPA, which honestly I'm on board with. If this reaps a ripe harvest a couple of years from now, I'll be a happy bunny.

This is where I think Ron really confused matters over the past few years. Trying to balance an eye on the future but also trying to patch holes in a roster I think he (and some os us to be honest) likely thought was better than it actually was. I think the division win in his first year, and the fact we do have some nice players in certain spots flattered to deceive. I think Peters and co came in with fresh eyes and gave the team an unbiased once over and realised we need help everwhere. Nothing is off limits. The DT is case in point. I think he looked at the position and saw it as: No depth. Mathis and Ridgway are not the answer. And Allen and Payne underperformed last year, maybe due to lack of rotation/fatigue. BPA at that point was DT, so it now shores up a depth problem, and also (if he pans out well) gives us a chance to move on from Allen or Payne down the line.

It's also clear that there's no interference in his vision. Yes, Josh was there, but I didn't get even a hint he was interfering. Not like Dan in the past who couldn't keep his fingers out of the baking process.

Oooo and another thing. I watched the press conference after the draft. Peters is very firm on what position these players fulfil. While we were debating the pros and cons of whether Colman was a Guard or a Tackle, Peters was firm. Tackle. You can guarantee if that had been Rivera sat there he'd have been all 'Kid can play Guard or Tackle, I like the way if gives us position flex, I really do.'

Also, it's evident watching the video's of the picks, that most of them fit a mold. It's becoming clear the kind of player/people that the team wants. Tough and with good character. I was especially impressed with Sainristil and the way he came across. I think someone said in chat last night that he seems in the Terry mould and I think that's correct. He could be a very strong leader on this defense moving forward.

I was also very impressed with how Daniels handled his press conference. I especially loved his answer when they asked him about whether he was QB1! I know it's early, but I'd been worried that he would be a diva somehow. To be fair, he's not alone in wearing all the bling and the sunglasses in the green room at the draft etc, but for a simple guy like me (who spends 90% of his time slumming it in joggers and a t-shirt) its a red flag. But he carried himself well in the press conference. The right mix of confidence and humility. I hope that's truly who he is and not just a fake first impression.

Anyway, that's my thoughts this morning.

Now I'm off to nap and listen to all the post-draft podcasts.

 

[Knightingale]

Another thought...

So I'm lying on the sofa, dozing and thinking about the draft...

I know we'd spoken about it before, but it's more and more obvious that this is a draft that's leaning towards 2025/6 than 2024.

So, we brought in Mariota to effectively mentor Daniels. (Not sure whether that's good or bad, but it is what it is.)
We have Zach Ertz on a one year deal to mentor Ben Sinnott
We have Wagner on a one year deal to mentor our new defensive players.
And he's saved a ton of cap space for next year.

So, to your comment about starters, Burgold, I think Peters and co are looking for starters that can hit the field running next year. If they need grooming for a year so be it. In that light, I can see maybe 5 2025 starters for next year.
Daniels will be a starter this year. Newton will rotate this year and may move to starter next year depending on what happens with Allen or Payne. Sainristil starts this year. Sinnott sits behind Ertz this year (At least for a while) and starts next year. Colman possibly starts, but maybe they groom him for next year. McCaffrey is the wild card. Looking at our WR pool, he's not beating Terry or Jahan to a spot, but at this point it doesn't seem like it would take too much to beat out MIlne/Dyami/Tinsley. (Crowder is the other wild card here.)

I'd imagine Peters/Quinn have probably discussed and figured that this will be a sort of 7 or 8 win team this year, and that the 2024 draft is only part one of a bigger picture. Hence I'm not convinced that they're too worried about the gaps they're plugging this year as they consider this just year 1 of a 2 year process. I think we may see some more O line moves after the draft, and then it wouldn't surprise me if next year when we're probably looking at a more middling draft position, that we may end up drafting more O-line (considering we were drafting too high for value this year) or whatever we didn't manage to get done this year.

 

[burgold]

Good point about future starters. Working on my earlier analogy, I suppose this thread isn't even looking at the forest instead of the trees, but looking at the health of the forest or creating a growth forest that will sustain a healthy ecosystem.

 

[Chris]

One thing this team will not be short on is former Captains.

 

[Chris]

The differences in personal appearance choices are highly cultural to me and give me no pause.

 

[Enforcer]

These guys all have aggressive mentalities on the field and I didn't realize it until some media person pointed it out - team captains.

 

[Boone]

We’ll add an overall draft grade poll to this thread once today’s picks have been made.

 

[Knightingale]

The differences in personal appearance choices are highly cultural to me and give me no pause.

Agreed, but there’s sometimes a fine line between what is personal/cultural style and what is brand building.
At some point Jayden will want to build a brand, of course he will, but I don’t see any signs at the moment that that is his focus right now.
Both Haskins and RGIII both seemed concerned more with that than their on field performance before they’d really achieved anything. More so Haskins, at least RGIII had that rookie year to build off.

 

[Canadian Hog]

Another Offensive Lineman, Defensive Back and potentially an Edge player would be my choices today. That being said, at this point in the draft, you are trying to stockpile talent, so I don't think position will factor too much into the equation when they are making their selections.

 

[Boone]

Punt returner, OL depth

 

[Boone]

NFL.com gave us an 'A' grade for both day 1 and day 2 selections. Not something you have seen frequently in the past.

 

[Boone]

I would probably give them a B+ so far. I think we're going to get some generous grades due to Adam Peters being so likable and it being a new day and all. I think the failure to find a guaranteed starter at OT early has to be considered (whether that was within Peters control or not). Otherwise, I love the focus on BPA, drafting guys with elite physical tools, dawg mentality, and demonstrated leadership traits. On that front this draft is a homerun so far.

 

[Boone]

In short, this indicates we may be bringing in the most athletic group of draftees in the 2024 draft...

 

[Canadian Hog]

In short, this indicates we may be bringing in the most athletic group of draftees in the 2024 draft...

In a nutshell, it seems like we have brought in a lot of moldable clay. As is always the case, it will be up to the coaches to develop these guys to their potential, but the athleticism of the group as a whole potentially gives them a bit of a leg up in terms of being able to all make an impact in the league.

 

[burgold]

Looks like this was a draft to establish culture and increase athleticism. Everyone had a high RAS and almost everyone was a team captain. I think my first blush draft is a B+. Honestly, I downgrade them for getting only one offensive linemen (post is made before 7th rounder and UDFA haul)

Burgold's Tongue and cheek (or is he serious) draft would have been a little different.

Round 1: QB-- Probably Drake Maye, but honestly Daniels is an exciting choice
Round 1: Trade up for Offensive Tackle
Round 2: Offensive Tackle or Offensive Guard
Round 5 Punt returner with a 3.8 forty time
Round 7 Offensive Guard or Center

Team is probably lucky that Peters is picking instead of me.

 

[tomwvr]

Thought it might be useful to have a thread to chat about how the draft went overall and how it is being viewed by BGO members and others. We have a bunch of threads that look at the trees. This one is designed to look at the forest.

One thing that really stands out to me is how decisive Peters seems to be. Very often, he turns in his card fast. While others like to use as much of the allotted time as possible, Washington frequently made their selection just a minute in. That suggests to me they really were excited about their pick. I guess it also means that they are doing less trade exploration or they do all their trade exploration before they are on the board. Whatever the reason, I like that we don't milk the clock and the trade down we executed seemed like a fine one.

As to the picks, I'm still scratching my head about the DT we chose first. I get BPA and that we really are drafting with an eye on the team two or three years down the road, but DT was the one position you'd think we might take off the board. Still, rotation is important these days and we've gotten nothing from Mathis who's always hurt and was probably a reach at two by Rivera anyway. Otherwise, they did well. They let the draft come to them and got high potential prospects in a lot of slots. I read a number of Day 2 post draft analysis this morning and I think a bunch of them are being consciously unfair. They boil down to, "Great player with amazing attributes, but I'm downgrading this because why the hell didn't they get a tackle!" Now, that's fine for fans, but professional analysts shouldn't do that. They should break down each player in a vacuum and then if they can downgrade the team if they want for overlooking or taking too long to address needs, but no player should get dinged because they play a different position.

It's hard for me to get a grasp on how well we did as a team. I don't watch enough college football and certainly don't study the tape, but I think I'm feeling good about the draft so far. We've checked a lot of boxes with players who've been productive and excelled in college. What do I want going forward on Day 3? I am still hungry for more offensive linemen and I wouldn't mind getting someone dynamic who can compete at PR/KR, but really I just want more good players, players who can rotate in now and have a chance to emerge later.

My hope was that we find four starters out of this draft. If I were to guess I think we've fallen short of that so far.

QB starter
DT rotational guy, but eventual starter a few years down the road.
CB nickel (now a days since everybody plays at least three wide receivers on almost every down maybe nickel ought to be considered a starter)
TE Starter?
G/T I'm guessing back up who will push to start
WR backup/rotational player? I don't think McCaffrey will be our day one slot guy, but maybe.

I have been reading that the dt we drafted he is more a 3 spot guy than a true dt.

 

[burgold]

If I were a UDFA o lineman I would be begging my agent to pitch Washington. We need depth. We need starters.

Okay, I guess technically we need one starter, but we're paper thin at best at every line position.

 

[Chris]

 

[burgold]

On the UDFA front, it always bothers me how many more UDFAs other teams seem to get. For example at 8:30 pm the Seahawks have signed ten UDFAs and we have signed three.