Official 'It got blowed up what next?' Thread

[Boone]

If we want to keep talking about this let’s move it to the NFL forum. Sorry to be that guy

 

[Chris]

With the Patriots planning to add a GM, I hope that doesn’t throw a wrench in Washington’s situation with Adam Peters. He does have a previous stint in NE on his resume and Washington would not have an ownership advantage over NE like it does with some other franchises.

 

[Boone]

I think the biggest factor making Washington the premier landing spot in 2024 (aside from ownership) is the wealth of cap space and draft picks available. That’s huge.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

And that he can pick the head coach. This is something we have been harping on since Harris bought the team. GM first who picks his coach. They hired the coach first and are trying to fill in the GM spot.

 

[Boone]

Very true

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Peters is going to get offered the job, if it hasn't been offered already. The question is going to be does it take it. That's probably why Ian Cunningham is being courted as well.

Honestly, the 49ers would be foolish to let him walk out the door, so I'm sue there is going to be an internal push from them to keep him in the organization. Move Lynch up (which might have already happened), give him a new fancy title and have him be the person who's working directly with Kyle? I don't know if they would do that, but they might, because he's an essential cog in their operation.

The New England connection is also interesting. However, they've already hired the coach up there. If he comes here, he will get input into who the coach is. And the 2nd overall pick (I know the Patriots have the 3rd overall pick) and more cap room.

Also, it's colder in New England.

I think it's really smart of Harris to keep a couple really good candidates warm, because if Peters does turn down the job, you don't want to look like a fool and have no other option.

I'm somewhat surprised they haven't zoom-called with Wilks this week for the HC job. Not that Wilks would get the job, but the only coaches they can talk to are ones on the Ravens and 49ers. So, why not talk to them?

My guess is they hire Peters by the end of the weekend.

Reminder on coach interview timeline:
- Virtual Interviews only until after the divisional round. This is for any coach who is employed by any other team.
- IMPORTANT for Vrabel, Harbaugh and Belichick: they can interview now with whoever they want and I think get hired immediately. That's not us. (Maybe Vrabel?) But other teams. Frank Reich is also out there, though I think he's going to be the OC of the Bears. Personally, I'd talk to all of them now because you can't talk to Ben Johnson, Bobby Slowik or others for a while anyway. No harm in chatting....
- For everybody else, the basic rule of thumb is, if the team is playing a game the next week, you can't talk to the coaching staff. If they're not (49ers/Ravens) you can during the bye week. This is also true for the teams going to the SB. But remember, in-person interviews are banned (and thus hirings) until after the division round of the playoffs for everybody. This is to level the playing field for good coaches who coach late into the off-season.
- Once a team is eliminated, candidates can start interviewing 3 days after their season is over in concurrence with the virtual vs. in-person rules.

If we want to get a head start on Ben Johnson, we want the Lions to lose to the Rams. However, if the Lions lose to the Rams, that might not be so good for Ben Johnson's resume.

All that said, there's no possible way to hire a coach before Jan 24th UNLESS you're hiring somebody not employed by a team. So somebody could hire Belichick, Harbaugh, Carroll (if you're looking for somebody that old), or any other out-of-football person. Hell, somebody could interview Rivera and/or Jay! I'm not sure why they would. But they COULD.

 

[Enforcer]

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Also, one more thing: I don't think the new HOFO is going to have cart blanche to hire the HC. Based on what Harris said, he wants to "listen" to the HOFO, but he's going to be flexible with talent. The way I read it is the HOFO is going to be added to the advisory committee with a large voice, but it's not going to be a unilateral decision by that person.

And I really think they're going to end up with a structure where the HOFO and the HC are essentially peers. Not one who works for the other.

Look what just happened in Tennessee. Their GM stinks. Their coach was good. The team lacked talent and the coach gets fired because of a bad GM. I personally HATE the GM hires coach and coach works for GM model.

I think the way Harris is going about this is "super smart" to quote Joe Gibbs.

 

[Boone]

I think it depends on who the HC is. If they get Peters and hire Macdonald or another first time HC, I don’t see that being a peer relationship. Peters is going to have complete authority. Just my opinion.

 

[Boone]

Voice_of_Reason But how often does that happen (a bad GM survives but a good HC is fired)? Tenn seems like an outlier to me… I feel like you have to have someone with definitive final say. Doesn’t mean they are immune to input and can’t make decisions in collaboration with others, but I think Harris wants someone strong and decisive. I think a very strong GM will also help ensure Harris stays in his lane and is not tempted to become too involved.

Beyond the Tenn scenario, why don’t you like the more vertical structure?

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I think it depends on who the HC is. If they get Peters and hire Macdonald or another first time HC, I don’t see that being a peer relationship. Peters is going to have complete authority. Just my opinion.

I think that depends on what "complete authority" means. I don't see the HC working for the HOFO. I think both are going to work for Harris, or an intermediary executive. That's important because it means the GM/HOFO doesn't have input in the coaching staff in any way either. Also, you avoid the Vrabel situation where you have an average roster but scapegoat a good coach. They're on the same level of the org chart.

From a roster construction perspective, I think Peters or Cunningham is going to have roster authority no matter what. However, I think the idea is to have a setup like San Fran, where Lynch and Kyle are essentially peers. In fact, Kyle is the final decision maker in San Fran, but Lynch basically has autonomy over the roster, and when there is a difference of opinion, they work it out for the betterment of the team. Who actually has the tiebreaking vote in that scenario becomes somewhat irrelevant.

Also, it's very possible Ben Johnson might request Kyle Shanahan type control. Kyle was also a first time head coach. I wouldn't have a problem with that as long as things worked the same way as they do in San Fran, where essentially Peters/Cunningham and Johnson were peers and worked together, because at that point, the "tie-breaker" is irrelevant.

I think all the best teams essentially work the same way, where the GM and HC basically work together, one of them has final say but it's kindof moot.

 

[Boone]

If a GM/HOFO has absolute autonomy over the roster, that’s not an equal peer relationship though. If they want to have them both to report to Harris or his designee, fine, but in that setup the GM/HOFO is the more powerful position. I think you could argue that having your more horizontal reporting structure sets the org up for infighting when disagreements occur with each guy campaigning directly to Harris.

 

[Boone]

I think that depends on what "complete authority" means. I don't see the HC working for the HOFO. I think both are going to work for Harris, or an intermediary executive. That's important because it means the GM/HOFO doesn't have input in the coaching staff in any way either. Also, you avoid the Vrabel situation where you have an average roster but scapegoat a good coach. They're on the same level of the org chart.

From a roster construction perspective, I think Peters or Cunningham is going to have roster authority no matter what. However, I think the idea is to have a setup like San Fran, where Lynch and Kyle are essentially peers. In fact, Kyle is the final decision maker in San Fran, but Lynch basically has autonomy over the roster, and when there is a difference of opinion, they work it out for the betterment of the team. Who actually has the tiebreaking vote in that scenario becomes somewhat irrelevant.

Also, it's very possible Ben Johnson might request Kyle Shanahan type control. Kyle was also a first time head coach. I wouldn't have a problem with that as long as things worked the same way as they do in San Fran, where essentially Peters/Cunningham and Johnson were peers and worked together, because at that point, the "tie-breaker" is irrelevant.

I think all the best teams essentially work the same way, where the GM and HC basically work together, one of them has final say but it's kindof moot.

Final say is never ‘moot’. It’s huge. And whether those two roles work together isn’t dependent on the reporting structure. They could be peers and not be on the same page or one could report to the other but they work collaboratively. I think that’s more dependent on WHO you’ve hired vs. the org chart.

 

[Boone]

Whatever they do, it’s going to be light years better than what we’ve had for 30 years

 

[burgold]

Whatever they do, it’s going to be light years better than what we’ve had for 30 years

Stop trying to jinx us!

 

[Bulldog]

I think it's going to be a model where Peters goes out and brings in the talent and the Coach determines who starts and plays on the roster.

 

[Boone]

Getting the NFL's premier GM candidate and there literally being no competition because he felt DC was the best spot to be - it's surreal. This kind of thing just doesn't happen to us! I have no delusions. There are no guarantees in sports. Signing Adam Peters may not result in Super Bowls and we could quite possibly see one of the other candidates that we passed over have tremendous success.

But you have to be excited and optimistic. And how long, really, has it been since we could justifiably feel that way?

I'd like to pivot this thread a little now and start talking about staff. Who might Peters bring in as an Assistant GM? What about the HC?

I think we'll have to do some research on other front office staff Peters would reach out to. But HC - where do we go there? I know 'conventional wisdom' is that it'll be Ben Johnson with Mike Garafolo saying Johnson is 'firmly in play' to be the next Washington HC. He's certainly done great things for the Detroit Lions offense. One intriguing nugget - Johnson is a NC boy, went to HS in Asheville, went to UNC where he made the football team as a walk-on QB. He's smart. Top 5 in his HS class and got a degree in mathematics and computer science at UNC. He's probably watched every UNC football game for the past 3 years. He would come in knowing better than any of us what he does or doesn't have in Sam Howell and what he might have with Drake Maye. That would be a huge bonus if he turned out to be the guy. A factor that might make him less attractive? He's got no connections to the Shanahan tree and doesn't run that 'system'.

Bobby Slowik is the other hot name. I'm less familiar with him even though he was a defensive assistant for the Redskins over a decade ago. Interestingly enough, Slowik (who was a WR at Michigan Tech in college) only started coaching offense in 2021. But what he's done in Houston with CJ Stroud has been impressive and he has a reputation as a guy who is really smart. His days as a Washington assistant were during the Shanahan era, so he in contrast to Ben Johnson is much more a Shanahan disciple.

I think Johnson has a big advantage in terms of resume. He's just a more impressive guy on paper, and probably less of a risk as Slowik could still prove to be a 1 year+ wonder. But both guys are intriguing for different reasons.

Just a quick driveby on those two. But who knows, maybe there are darkhorse candidates we don't even know about?

 

[Boone]

Just throwing **** at the wall here... but Johnson could very easily look at Sam Howell and say, that's a future NFL starter, he's just been mismanaged. That could set the stage for Washington going contrarian in the draft and doing a big trade down for even more draft capital.

I'm not saying it's likely, or even that I want that to happen. I personally cannot be sure if Howell can take several steps up and become the guy or if he is just one of those pretty good/serviceable QBs like Colt McCoy who lack the elite qualities to ever become more than a very good backup option.

Of course, Johnson, being uber-familiar with both Howell and Maye, could believe Maye has everything Howell does and more and is going to be our target at #2.

Either way, him being super familiar with both QBs could be a critical thing for us in making the right decision in April.

 

[burgold]

Just throwing **** at the wall here... but Johnson could very easily look at Sam Howell and say, that's a future NFL starter, he's just been mismanaged. That could set the stage for Washington going contrarian in the draft and doing a big trade down for even more draft capital.

I'm not saying it's likely, or even that I want that to happen. I personally cannot be sure if Howell can take several steps up and become the guy or if he is just one of those pretty good/serviceable QBs like Colt McCoy who lack the elite qualities to ever become more than a very good backup option.

Of course, Johnson, being uber-familiar with both Howell and Maye, could believe Maye has everything Howell does and more and is going to be our target at #2.

Either way, him being super familiar with both QBs could be a critical thing for us in making the right decision in April.

But wouldn't that be amazing!

I think most of us on this board looked at Sam Howell during the first half of 2023 and thought, "Could we have struck gold? Could we have our Russell Wilson? Dak Prescott, etc. Then, the wheels of the team fell off and with it so did Sam. I agree with you when you said the book is probably not closed on Sam Howell. Those first eight games were not a mirage. Now, I expect a QB in the draft. At number 2, if you think a generational talent is available and you have a maybe then you take your homerun swing. That said, if Peters and whoever our head coach is see enough that they can trade down and get another first, a second and maybe a player...

This team needs three linemen
They need linebackers
They need defensive backs
They need pass rushers
They need a QB

Now, I honestly believe that Dotson makes a comeback. I think he lost his edge and thought himself there because everyone told him how amazing his rookie season was. I think a lot of players underperformed and bounce back. I really do think talentwise we are probably closer to an 8-8-1 team. So, if we build out the places where we are genuinely weak we might make a leap sooner then some expect.

Back to your point, it'd be amazing if Howell became the guy. It would make everything so much easier in terms of rebuilding the team. Part of that answer will come three months from now.

 

[Boone]

If this is true, no way Johnson favors Tepper and the Panthers over our situation. Not possible. I think Johnson is conventional wisdom and we're going to hear that over and over (with the occasion 'or Bobby Slowik') but these things can change on a dime so we shall see what we shall see....