I agree that this was their thought process, and that it backfired. Zoom out and think about how arrogant (no negative connotation here, just a description of the trap they fell into) it is to assume you don’t need the money or starters it could buy to be competitive now, you’ve gotten competitive enough and need to save that money for when your current (assumed adequate) players need to be paid later! There’s something to be said for preserving future cap health and being prepared for the future, but they went so extreme with it that they clearly felt the roster as constructed had mostly arrived and just needed some patches. When in reality the talent floor on this team needed a total overhaul, it needed to be raised.
We needed some of those (yes, a little overpaid) 25-28 year old FA starters that teams like the Patriots and Cards and others spent quality money on (without going goofy mode like the Jaguars years back), to make up for the mess AP inherited from Rivera. I think they just underestimated how much magic and luck and injury fortune played into our run last season. I see how it happened, but I want to see adjustments. This roster is fixable and it wouldn’t be a shortcut to sign some quality starters and playmakers on both sides of the ball to take advantage of the remainder of Jayden Daniels’ rookie contract. He’ll get an enormous, likely record-breaking contract in a couple years, we all hope for that. But to get there healthy and accomplished and be worth all that, he needs talent, speed, and brains around him now in order to earn it. Or we’re going to be watching this shit show for a few more years while we squander all his potential in agonizing slow motion.
If I try to step back into the headspace they might’ve been in during the offseason, coming off last year’s showing…
They added Jones as competition/depth to the starting trio of Lattimore, Sainristil and Iggy, with the hope that Lattimore would be healthier/improved. Had they not drafted Amos, I think they’d have been in the market for another FA corner. Overall, the corner spot should look better, especially seeing Amos in action.
I think they thought Kinlaw was a better fit than Allen, and Newton would hopefully develop with a full offseason. Wise was a little more well-rounded than Fowler, and then Martin was a solid rotational piece, along with Baptiste. So better depth and a decent chance at improvement on the dline.
Harris for Chinn was roughly a wash (in theory), Quan would be better with another year in the system and improvement to the front and maybe corners.
Tunsil and Deebo were significant upgrades to an already potent offense, Coleman would be a good G experiment. Conerly and Lane would be interesting additions to the mix, giving upside and depth at minimum, and Cosmi would return.
And then there’s the potential development of Luke, Sinnot, Owens, McGee, plus our late round rookies and some other back end of the roster guys.
On top of all of that, you have Daniels in his 2nd year, plus coaching/scheme continuity for everyone.
I know this is rehashing what we already know, but setting aside hindsight, I could see them thinking the defense should be a bit better, and the offense should get a nice boost. Then we have our offense and defense practicing against each other, and that could have reinforced this thinking. So, AP’s maybe thinking - we’ve improved the team and have cap space to roll over to give us the ability to pay key guys down the road as needed… we’re in good shape short and long term as of now. But then shit hits the fan and it’s so messy, he realizes that trading for a guy to try to fix/improve one single issue isn’t going to cut it, so let’s let it ride, hope health and performance improves, which then morphs into - let’s reevaluate in the offseason a couple weeks later, ‘cause this is a disaster.
I guess my point here is I don’t know that’d I’d use a term as strong as
arrogance, but it
was a pretty conservative approach, maybe barring the Tunsil/Deebo trades. I certainly don’t begrudge
you calling it arrogance though.
I can’t speak for anyone else, but I for one thought the team might be a decent bit better than last year, or hold serve at worst, even if the record was probably gonna be worse with a (likely far) tougher schedule. Wildcard hunt was my expectation. Zero chance I’d have guessed we’d be one of the worst teams in the league. Sucks.