Next Day Thread: What Was That? (Dallas Edition)

That is very good context. I suppose my only point is that no matter who your players are, when you drop off by a TD it still shows regression of the effectiveness of your scheme (assuming you're working with mostly the same players).

I don’t think it’s black and white. It shows drop off of your scheme, sure. But it also shows that defenses adjusted to what you’re doing over time and you don’t have the horses to do much different.

Now, I think there is always some element of available options for the OC to take, but it’s not as easy as saying, “well, they adjusted. Let’s completely revamp everything and hope the rookie QB with the bad offensive line and a lack of real weapons adjust to the drastic schematic changes!”

Reality is we are under talented. And have been all year. Why do we focus on the less effective offensive weeks and not on the ones where our offense was historically good in regards to Kingsbury’s performance.

My argument isn’t that Kingsbury is a God or that he’s done the absolute best job - my argument is that our team has regressed to the mean of the sum of our parts and that he helped take us way above that for several weeks. Now he and the offense are performing, roughly, as expected.
 
KDawg - great points of course. I agree with you and don't think there's any point in any drastic changes, necessarily. Just that, maybe when focusing on Kingsbury himself, it's a counter punch that he needs to consider to step his game up. How will he avoid these circumstances in the future or how will he counter the league's counter? I'm not saying it's easy or a fire-able offense, just that it's fair to ask your coaches to up their game over time too (even if they don't have talent that can win one-on-one match ups).
 
KDawg - great points of course. I agree with you and don't think there's any point in any drastic changes, necessarily. Just that, maybe when focusing on Kingsbury himself, it's a counter punch that he needs to consider to step his game up. How will he avoid these circumstances in the future or how will he counter the league's counter? I'm not saying it's easy or a fire-able offense, just that it's fair to ask your coaches to up their game over time too (even if they don't have talent that can win one-on-one match ups).
Oh, I agree with you. But I will say this: I doubt he's resting on his laurels. He is likely working with his staff on how to account for all of these variables. And I am sure he is going to try to do something. I know it's easy for us, as observers, to think that these guys just aren't planning any changes or doing anything... but they are. Coaches hate lack of success and will do whatever they can to correct. The problem is, any time you add or change things its more items for guys to learn and understand. These are professionals so adapting should be something that is fairly easy for them, but changing reads, routes, audibles, assignments, etc., can be tricky for a team. So they may come up with a bunch of changes and they just don't work in practice and they have to re-think their strategies. It could be the players not getting it, a lack of personnel or just something they don't like.

But, to your point, if they AREN'T trying to think of ways around this then that is a major problem.

One immediate thing I notice is McLaurin always on the same side of the formation and the fact that we aren't motioning him around. To me, that is an odd choice. There has to be a reason why. But if it's just to keep him there it's a big mistake. If it's for some reason... we likely won't ever know what that reason is. Things like that stay in house.
 
KDawg - I'm sure they are trying too. I'm not a coach like you are (I'm not creepy, I just remember you from ES), so I don't notice all the intricacies. But, some of the reason that these guys (even the ones who aren't the head coaches) make millions is because they are expected to figure out how to be successful with the parts that they have. So, I'm sure he's in the lab trying...all I'm really saying is that he's known now for years that this happens (that's part of why I did the math to see the perception was based in any reality), so I would think he isn't JUST now doing the work to set up some ways to be successful off of the things he did in September and October.
 
KDawg - I'm sure they are trying too. I'm not a coach like you are (I'm not creepy, I just remember you from ES), so I don't notice all the intricacies. But, some of the reason that these guys (even the ones who aren't the head coaches) make millions is because they are expected to figure out how to be successful with the parts that they have. So, I'm sure he's in the lab trying...all I'm really saying is that he's known now for years that this happens (that's part of why I did the math to see the perception was based in any reality), so I would think he isn't JUST now doing the work to set up some ways to be successful off of the things he did in September and October.

I'll tell you what - I do it too sometimes. I sit on my couch watching college, NFL or even HS ball and I say, "well, they should just do xyz and find success"... And then I catch myself.

It's hard to out scheme a lack of talent. At the end of the day, the best teams are the teams who have the best talent match to their scheme. It's not ALWAYS about having the absolute raw best talent... sometimes its about just having the talent to maximize scheme/other pieces.

Like I said, Kingsbury can undoubtedly to better. If anyone thinks they are the best they can be at any point, in any endeavor, they aren't worth their paycheck.

I notice a lack of motions, keeping McLaurin stationary, not using McNichols more despite Ekeler and Robinson being constantly hurt, a lack of crossing patterns, etc. There may be a reason that they aren't doing those things... But there may not be.

But I think it's okay to acknowledge that while we have drastically improved this roster, it's still lacking in several places.

LT, RT are massive holes. And the guy we drafted to hopefully be our long term LT is constantly banged up (see our running backs as well) and, well, Wiley.

I'm not sold on LG, but he's not bad, either.

WR is abysmal aside from McLaurin as far as overall weapons. I actually think Noah, Dyami, ZO and LM are all players that belong on NFL rosters - that's not the knock. But most of them are limited use guys who have a niche and will play it well. They aren't 8-10 target a game type guys that can take over a football game on command. McLaurin is essentially that. But he can be taken away by scheme and his lack of movement. We need a number 1a/b (take your pick) to help accentuate the other guys a bit more.

Ertz is reliable, but aging.

And this is just the offense.

But this team is much better than last year. Having a WR corps. full of NFL players is nice. Having three backs who I think are good players is excellent.

Even our OL is much improved talent wise.

But that just shows how badly positioned we were going into this year.

It's year 1. There is a lot of learning and understanding taking place every week.

I know we as a society are all about immediate results, and I get it. These guys are paid big money to fix issues and as a society we think it needs to happen now.

But reality is these things take time.

I'll hop on the "yup, Kingsbury offenses stink in the second half of seasons" train in the following scenarios:

1. The rest of this season is a trainwreck +
2. With improved pieces it continues to happen.

One thing this current regime is likely learning about players is who has the best ability of all: Avail... and who doesn't.
 
It all makes perfect sense...I guess I just can't get over the fact that almost without exception, he does perfectly fine with that talent for 6-8 games and then regresses. Regardless of the state of the roster, his late-season results were worse than his early-season results. So, as someone who doesn't work in football, but works in data...that drives me to think it's "talent-independent" if it happened the same way over 3 different rosters (2020, 2021, and 2022).
 
It all makes perfect sense...I guess I just can't get over the fact that almost without exception, he does perfectly fine with that talent for 6-8 games and then regresses. Regardless of the state of the roster, his late-season results were worse than his early-season results. So, as someone who doesn't work in football, but works in data...that drives me to think it's "talent-independent" if it happened the same way over 3 different rosters (2020, 2021, and 2022).
I like to think about it this way, but I don't know if it's true.

I've never been a great athlete, but if I really concentrate and try my best I can keep up and compete with people more physically gifted than me. I remember one volleyball game where I somehow got put opposite an Olympic gold medal winner and I blocked him three times in one game. Now, it was a friendly and he probably wasn't going all out, but still, by the third game I wasn't blocking his shots anymore. Partly because I was getting tired and can sprint for only so long and partly because the guy with the greater talent started taking me more seriously and didn't want this 5'6 shrimp embarrassing him anymore.
 
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It goes like this. Bad coaching bad players < good coaching bad players < bad coaching great players < great coaching great players.

I think we ar3 good coaching bad players in a broad sense.
 
Why do you all think we have low talent? Players can be coached up, can't they?

We won Super Bowls with players other teams thought did not have talent.
 
Why do you all think we have low talent? Players can be coached up, can't they?

We won Super Bowls with players other teams thought did not have talent.
I hate to answer a question with a question… but…

Do you think, that just because players can be coached up, that all players have the same potential?
 
My thought is - we are 7-5 exactly BECAUSE we have coached these players up. We may be at the ceiling of that effort. Ultimately, you've got to have the horses.
 
I hate to answer a question with a question… but…

Do you think, that just because players can be coached up, that all players have the same potential?
Not necessarily - but how do you make sense out of our OL dominating Tennessee, but not being able to block against similar defensive lines in Pittsburgh, Philly and Dallas? Dallas had a horrible defense then dominated us. The Titans had the 2nd ranked defense in yards allowed before yesterday.
 
Lucas vs. Wylie maybe?
 
This team looked past Dallas. They saw the 47-9 loss to the Lions and other times the Cowboys were gashed and didn’t come out with a full and focused effort.

This passivity was helped ironically by the coaching staff. We seemingly came out not to lose, not to take any chances.

On defense we needed to blitz Rush into bloody submission.

Giving this guy the respect of dropping seven and rushing four sent the wrong message.

You can often feel the pulse of a team based on the special teams. We made enough errors on teams to fill up a one hour training tape.

Indeed, even in a bad day those 9 points given away on teams was the difference between winning and losing.
 
I really think that's the case. I think they saw a team falling apart and figured if they just don't make any mistakes this would be an easy win. It led them to playing too conservatively on offense and defense. We're not good enough to do that. I think we might just be good enough to compete with almost every team in the league, but we're also raw enough and talent deficient enough to be beaten if we don't play well.

What is encouraging is that with the exception of Dallas we haven't been playing down to our competition's level. When we face a bad team we beat them handily. That hasn't been the case in recent years. Maybe even more encouraging, we seem to be playing up to our competition's level more and more often.
 

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