Kirk Cousins Development Tracker

[Elephant]

Has anyone looked at Kirk Cousins 2014 vs Kirk Cousins 2015? People say he's performed much better, but...

The team is scoring fewer points... So, the improved 3rd down percentage & Red Zone percentage isn't really buying us much.

Cousins has played 8 games in 2015 (2 more than last year... more like 2.5 more than last year, but let's go with it)...

Cousins has thrown 104 more passes, but has the same number of TDs & INTs as he did in 2014... So, he is improved in INT/PA, but he is down in TD/PA.

His completion percentage is up, but his yards per attempt is down dramatically. He is averaging 2 yards less per attempt.

I would argue that in 2015, Kirk Cousins development has been a complete wash from 2014... Yes, he is developing leadership skills, but it isn't actually translating significantly to success of the offense. I'll just blame Gruden here.

You're right...cut him! Start Griffin the rest of the season...he deserves it!

 

[Miles Monroe]

You're right...cut him! Start Griffin the rest of the season...he deserves it!

B, why do you instantly have to go there, even when people don't even insinuate something about Robert. Smoot basically posted some stats about Cousins, and his opinion as related to them in the "Cousins development tracker" thread. He didn't say jack about Robert. We all know you hated the Griffin signing, and don't want to hear about him anymore, yet you bring him up more often then not.

We get it.....

 

[Elephant]

B, why do you instantly have to go there, even when people don't even insinuate something about Robert. Smoot basically posted some stats about Cousins, and his opinion as related to them in the "Cousins development tracker" thread. He didn't say jack about Robert. We all know you hated the Griffin signing, and don't want to hear about him anymore, yet you bring him up more often then not.

We get it.....

It wasn't instant, Miles...it's a cumulation of weeks of the same repeated statements. You're correct, the snark was probably over the top...just tired of listening to people clamor for change and patience, then when there slow change, they lack patience.

 

[Boone]

Has anyone looked at Kirk Cousins 2014 vs Kirk Cousins 2015? People say he's performed much better, but...

The team is scoring fewer points... So, the improved 3rd down percentage & Red Zone percentage isn't really buying us much.

Cousins has played 8 games in 2015 (2 more than last year... more like 2.5 more than last year, but let's go with it)...

Cousins has thrown 104 more passes, but has the same number of TDs & INTs as he did in 2014... So, he is improved in INT/PA, but he is down in TD/PA.

His completion percentage is up, but his yards per attempt is down dramatically. He is averaging 2 yards less per attempt.

I would argue that in 2015, Kirk Cousins development has been a complete wash from 2014... Yes, he is developing leadership skills, but it isn't actually translating significantly to success of the offense. I'll just blame Gruden here.

Not discounting your argument across the board, but we lost our #2 TE right out of the gate, we lost our #1 WR right out of the gate, our #1 pass catching TE has missed significant time, and the WRs who have played haven't exactly helped him out a lot. So while you may make a fair point that the end production hasn't been impressive, the targets he has to throw to have been seriously lacking.

Stats don't always tell the full story. I don't know how one can look at Cousins this season and not see a more confident, capable, decisive guy than last year. He's absolutely improving.

 

[Elephant]

Not discounting your argument across the board, but we lost our #2 TE right out of the gate, we lost our #1 WR right out of the gate, our #1 pass catching TE has missed significant time, and the WRs who have played haven't exactly helped him out a lot. So while you may make a fair point that the end production hasn't been impressive, the targets he has to throw to have been seriously lacking.

Stats don't always tell the full story. I don't know how one can look at Cousins this season and not see a more confident, capable, decisive guy than last year. He's absolutely improving.

And to continue on, we've seen major growth over the course of the season. We're not a very good team, we won't win a lot of games because we lack talent...but there is progress, it's there for those willing to remove the blinders long enough to see it.

People discount how very talent deficient this team was when Shanahan left. He was a terrible GM who had a tremendous hole to dig out of after the trade and cap hit. Then, we get one year with Allen and Gruden before we got a real player personnel guy to bring in some talent. It's not a one or 2 season rebuild...this is a 3-5 year deal...Gruden should get at least 3 years...2 with Scot before being fired. McGloughan will continue bringing in the talent, and hopefully Gruden will get the team rolling going into the off-season. If we lose out like last year at this point, then we'll have a new Head Coach coming in next year. Let's just hope if that happens, they bring in someone who will have a scheme that fits the players we currently have...not Zorn with whatever it was, to Shanahan with his smaller - quicker OL, to a big uglies style or ball control coach, then go back to someone like Art Briles with a college spread offense that will likely fail in the NFL.

 

[Goaldeje]

Brian, what you just said is one of the reasons I think Gruden may go at the end of the year, barring a winning streak of any kind in the last half of the season (personally, I think unless he wins 6+, he's gone). Scot is on record as saying he wants to be a smash-mouth football team that will knock people around, that will hurt people, that other teams will know they've played.

We were that for a few games, but we aren't now. I understand there are circumstances in every game that necessitate changing the gameplan, but at some point you have to look at Gruden's body of work while he has been here and realize that he doesn't seem to like smashmouth, NFCE football. For whatever reason, he doesn't seem able to commit longterm to the style of football Scot is on record as saying he wants to play.

I think Scot should get to choose his HC. Makes sense not to make a change immediately when he came in, makes sense to have this year be an evaluation year. And if that is the case, I think Gruden started off fairly well, but has fallen off the wagon of late, and personally, barring a return to early season form, I don't think he will be back next year. And then I think Scot will find the coach that fits what he wants to do, and bring in players to complement THAT scheme. Crazy idea, one we haven't really tried in 20 years, but I think it might work.

 

[fansince62]

Goal....agree. also...on an independent thought track: no matter who populates what positions...there has to be accountability. I'm tired of all the excuses that are offered to rationalize poor performance, poor leadership, mediocre play, lack of results or intentionally disregard context most of us realize color decision-making.

the tone and temperament for assessing players, coaches and FO types was set long ago by the media, pundits and many fans. now all must live with it. it is now the norm.

 

[Elephant]

Brian, what you just said is one of the reasons I think Gruden may go at the end of the year, barring a winning streak of any kind in the last half of the season (personally, I think unless he wins 6+, he's gone). Scot is on record as saying he wants to be a smash-mouth football team that will knock people around, that will hurt people, that other teams will know they've played.

We were that for a few games, but we aren't now. I understand there are circumstances in every game that necessitate changing the gameplan, but at some point you have to look at Gruden's body of work while he has been here and realize that he doesn't seem to like smashmouth, NFCE football. For whatever reason, he doesn't seem able to commit longterm to the style of football Scot is on record as saying he wants to play.

I think Scot should get to choose his HC. Makes sense not to make a change immediately when he came in, makes sense to have this year be an evaluation year. And if that is the case, I think Gruden started off fairly well, but has fallen off the wagon of late, and personally, barring a return to early season form, I don't think he will be back next year. And then I think Scot will find the coach that fits what he wants to do, and bring in players to complement THAT scheme. Crazy idea, one we haven't really tried in 20 years, but I think it might work.

And barring anything but 3-3 for the rest of the season, at the very least, I would have no problem with that...provided Scot does bring in a smash mouth coach to continue the rebuild toward that end and we don't see someone brought in to completely overhaul everything...again. When Shanahan was fired, I would not have minded Kubiak coming in here to refine the system Shanahan had given up on. If/when Gruden gets fired, I don't want to see Art Briles or anything like him, it has to be the type of team that won't require an new OL...again.

 

[Goaldeje]

And barring anything but 3-3 for the rest of the season, at the very least, I would have no problem with that...provided Scot does bring in a smash mouth coach to continue the rebuild toward that end and we don't see someone brought in to completely overhaul everything...again. When Shanahan was fired, I would not have minded Kubiak coming in here to refine the system Shanahan had given up on. If/when Gruden gets fired, I don't want to see Art Briles or anything like him, it has to be the type of team that won't require an new OL...again.

Absolutely. Scot is putting the pieces in place, and I am of the mind that Gruden doesn't know how to use those particular pieces. Therefore, Scot will want to find someone who can use those pieces to their fullest ability.

 

[Henry]

I guess this depends on whether or not the team is looking at this year as Year One or Year Two.

If it's Year One, McLovin may very well want his own guy in place.

If it's Year Two, I personally hope we start seeing some real progress soon. Not seeing much so far this year over last year.

 

[Smoot Point]

Not discounting your argument across the board, but we lost our #2 TE right out of the gate, we lost our #1 WR right out of the gate, our #1 pass catching TE has missed significant time, and the WRs who have played haven't exactly helped him out a lot. So while you may make a fair point that the end production hasn't been impressive, the targets he has to throw to have been seriously lacking.

Stats don't always tell the full story. I don't know how one can look at Cousins this season and not see a more confident, capable, decisive guy than last year. He's absolutely improving.

What I'm saying is it's absolutely debatable that he is improving... If it's an improvement that he is throwing shorter passes and defenses are adjusting by giving him short check-downs and waiting for him to make a mistake, and as a result he's making fewer mistakes... okay, that would potentially be an improvement.

Now... we have a better offensive line than last year with the departure of Polumbus & Chester and the addition of Callahan. We have an actual QB coach, who you would think is helping the QB improve from last year. DJax being injured is significant, but Jordan Reed was gone for most of Cousins' games last season. They are actually better off at TE this year than they were last year, since Reed has been far more healthy than he was at the beginning of last year.

So... Desean Jackson is the only legitimate excuse in my opinion...

If we are going to simply go with the "eyeball" test instead of statistics, I think it's obvious that Cousins hasn't actually improved much from last year. The only thing he is doing is playing a more conservative style, and teams are giving him far more short passes, waiting for him to either make a mistake or throw it short of the 1st down marker & punt.

However, the statistics say quite a lot...

 

[Smoot Point]

And to continue on, we've seen major growth over the course of the season. We're not a very good team, we won't win a lot of games because we lack talent...but there is progress, it's there for those willing to remove the blinders long enough to see it.

I disagree that we don't have talent... Here is what I think we have:

QB: bottom half of the league (it probably wouldn't matter which QB was starting)
RB: 10-15 in the league
WR: 10-15 in the league (could be higher, but last game was dreadful)
OL: Young, but solid. middle of the pack
DL: Aging, but solid. middle of the pack
OL: Young & injured. middle of the pack
IL: Having a poor season. bottom half of the league
S: Having a decent year, but could be improved. It's a weak position throughout NFL. middle of the pack
CB: Not healthy. Bottom half of league, but middle of the pack when healthy.

This isn't a rebuild like Gibbs had to go through after Spurrier...

We have a team that with decent coaching could probably go 8-8, but the coaching is really holding all the players back (including all our QBs). Gibbs would probably take this team to 9-7 or better, because he teaches discipline and has class. Gruden ("we hope") takes this team to 6-10 at best.

 

[Bulldog]

The offense is being rebuilt in 2015 and a number of key spots are being manned by rookies and first year starters.

That's going to drag on the performance of the qb unless he is in the elite class and already has enough experience to overcome that learning curve.

Kirk is out there learning with the rest of them.

 

[Smoot Point]

Cousins isn't throwing more picks per attempt, that's the only tangible proof we have that he is improving as a QB under Jay Gruden. There are a few situational stats, but none of those actually account for more points or yards (3rd down % and Red Zone % is up).

Let me add one more statistic:

Yards the ball travels through the air (YPA-YACPA = yards per attempt minus yards after catch per attempt).

Cousins is .4 less this season than all QBs were in 2014.

Since the other two QBs had less YPA in 2014 than Kirk Cousins, I'd say he is trending in the wrong direction here. That is significant, IMO. Either Kirk is limiting himself, the Redskins are limiting him by design, or the opponents are scheming him this way...

Anyway, I'm on record as saying we knew what Gruden was after last year and he should've been canned last offseason. This year, there is the potential that Mike McCoy will be fired from San Diego. Let's hire a defensive minded coach (Ray Horton might be nice) or maybe Rich Bisaccia (ST Coach from Dallas), then bring in Mike McCoy to run the offense. McCoy is the guy who was able to tailor an offense that even Tim Tebow could win with... He also changed his offense completely for Peyton Manning the very next year. You want a guy who can adapt to the talent McCloughan brings in? McCoy is the one that I'd look to first.

I don't want to hear about stability... Mediocrity is stability. We could find ourselves in the phantom zone for another decade if we accept this coaching staff that Bruce Allen built by exploiting all his Tampa connections. Let's clear the decks and let McCloughan actually run the show.

 

[Bulldog]

You are incorrect.

I would submit that Kirk leading the team to fourth quarter comebacks to win games and/or take them to OT shows he has improved in 2015.

Last year he melted under the pressure of the two minute drill. Not now.

If the team can play well enough around him to be competitive in the last quarter his performances have actually improved.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

I agree that Kirk is improving. He had a decent game on Sunday. To take what DeSean said and twist it around - Cousins can't make receivers catch well thrown balls, he can only put it there and hope they make the catches.

 

[Elephant]

I disagree that we don't have talent... Here is what I think we have:

QB: bottom half of the league (it probably wouldn't matter which QB was starting)
RB: 10-15 in the league
WR: 10-15 in the league (could be higher, but last game was dreadful)
OL: Young, but solid. middle of the pack
DL: Aging, but solid. middle of the pack
OL: Young & injured. middle of the pack
IL: Having a poor season. bottom half of the league
S: Having a decent year, but could be improved. It's a weak position throughout NFL. middle of the pack
CB: Not healthy. Bottom half of league, but middle of the pack when healthy.

This isn't a rebuild like Gibbs had to go through after Spurrier...

We have a team that with decent coaching could probably go 8-8, but the coaching is really holding all the players back (including all our QBs). Gibbs would probably take this team to 9-7 or better, because he teaches discipline and has class. Gruden ("we hope") takes this team to 6-10 at best.

OK, first off, I did not say we have no talent...I said we lack talent, especially in our depth. Since Gruden does not run an offense anything like Shanahan, I would say the turnover from Spurrier to Gibbs was almost identical as Shanahan to Gruden. Only difference was that Shanahan was handcuffed by lack of early draft picks, and a bs cap hit (to top off he is not great at talent acquisition), but the turnover was very similar...that and Gruden most certainly is not Gibbs, or even close.

As for your assertions on the talent of our team, we do disagree.

QB: I agree, we don't have one of the league's best...even if his stats put him right in the middle of the pack, but there are a lot worse in this league.

RB: Not sure why, but Morris is not the same back he was, just last year. Jones continues to act like a rookie...middle of the pack is kinda generous there.

WR: Our most over rated position by our fans. Crowder is shining, but Garcon is the only other WR on the team catching balls...they just don't get open.

TE: When healthy Reed is a beast...after him, what?

OL: I am optimistic they will be more than solid once we find a C to anchor the middle.

DL: Another over rated position. We get very little pressure on the QB and teams are starting to run it down our throats. Can't stop the run, can't get to the QB.

LB: We need help in the middle and we need our OLB's to get more pressure on the QB. Perry Riley is done, Compton is a baller, but a step to slow, Robinson is a beast.

DB's: Across the board inadequate. Breeland is the only player in our secondary that starts elsewhere. I like Keishon Jarrett, he can be good, but at this point he's young.

Go to the bench...you mentioned when healthy, well we are not healthy across the board.

As for Gruden, I am starting to believe you may be correct...he seems lacking. However, we are not a very talented team. We have some pieces, but we need a lot more.

And you're correct, I think Gibbs could squeeze blood from a turnip...look at the talent level of his playoff teams during his 2nd go round.

 

[fansince62]

You are incorrect.

I would submit that Kirk leading the team to fourth quarter comebacks to win games and/or take them to OT shows he has improved in 2015.

Last year he melted under the pressure of the two minute drill. Not now.

If the team can play well enough around him to be competitive in the last quarter his performances have actually improved.

unless, of course, one cares to speculate how low propensity to score in the first half of games places a team in a position to play catch-up in the first place. yea....poor defense and ST contribute. but this offense has not been scoring much. at season open it looked like it was orchestrated reasonably well moving up & down the field. now? major suckage. the offense is part of the problem.

 

[Smoot Point]

You have to rely heavily on emotion and wanting to have a positive attitude about your team if you think Kirk Cousins has improved from last year. There is nothing wrong with this, but that isn't tangible proof that he is improving. What? He's able to throw against a soft zone prevent against Atlanta to move us in position to kick a long field goal to send us to overtime where he throws a pick-6 to end the game? That's improvement because he didn't do that on the previous drive? I mean, yeah... we all were expecting him to do that on the previous drive... Clearly, he exceeded expectations there.

BTW, we played against Seattle defense last year with Kirk Cousins & he wasn't horrible... we played Jets, Rams & NE as top defenses (but he hasn't looked as good in those), and we have the lowly Saints this week (who gave up 6TDs to Eli at home).

Anyway, the point is... if he is indeed improving, then you wouldn't have to cherry pick a few situational stats/moments in order to do this. It would be obvious across the board in most statistical categories that he is improving (including the few situational moments), and it just isn't there. The stats that are obvious improvements are explained away by the dramatic drop in YPA... He just isn't taking chances. He is neutered as a thrower.

 

[Boone]

The problem I have with your argument Smooty is that it doesn't account for the performance or availability of his surrounding cast. Look at Andrew Luck this year - do we really believe he has suddenly become an inept QB - or could his play be influenced by a myriad of other factors? We all know the answer and it's true for all individual players. That doesn't mean everyone is exempt from assessment or criticism. But chalking the arguments of those who see some promise in Cousins as 'emotional' or homeristic optimism is inaccurate. I'll give one example of what I'm talking about. Some say 'Cousins has a QB coach, therefore he should be playing great compared to when he didn't!' Really? Is that a fact? You don't believe having a totally different voice and perspective in your ear might require a little adjustment. What about having two new play callers (and likely some different plays on the menu)?

I value your thoughts and others (Goal just made a post that he would be surprised to find I agree almost 100% with). Where I take some issue with conventional wisdom is that it's almost always put forth as if the challenge of moving from perennial cellar-dweller to perennial playoff team is a simple one. It's not. It's incredibly complex and multi-factorial. That doesn't mean (before someone says it) that we can't know or guess or pontificate upon what's really going on. But what it does mean is that when saying 'Cousins isn't improving' or 'If Almo got 30 carries a game it would fix our running game' or 'Gruden doesn't know what he's doing' or like statements, we are oversimplifying complex challenges in the extreme.


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