Free Agency this year should put to rest demons of the past

[Goaldeje]

I'm not sure you understand what "overpaying" means, Ry. The market sets itself, not the team. Holmgren was willing to equal our offer (and perhaps pay more), but did not put his BEST offer on the table, according to King. When told what our best offer was, the Browns came back and offered enough to beat our offer, but it was too late. So, by definition, we did not overpay.

The price we gave for the pick was enough to get the pick, and it could not have been had for less. Your argument, I think, is that those picks would be better used elsewhere, and we shouldn't have been in a rush to get THIS potential franchise QB. That's not overpaying.

 

[Elephant]

You guys are playing semantics. The cost of that pick is not determined by the market, it is going to be determined by the success on the field of the player chosen with that pick, plain and simple.

If RG3 has us in the playoffs this year, there will be many who say it is an immediate payoff. If he wins a SB within 3 years, it will look like we paid the right amount. The player chosen with that pick is likely to be our QB for a decade, if he does not win the SB, we paid too much.

Of course any claim of cost is purely conjecture. You guys make the market claim, but there is more to it than that. The cost of this pick is truly unknown at this time. The Rams and the Redskins believe the value was what was paid. We won't really know for 5 years down the road.

I think we paid too much, but that is merely my opinion. You guys can claim market value all you want, but that doesn't accurately determine what the true cost is. We'll know in 5 years and the RG3 thread will be a sticky so you guys will be able to rub my nose in it! God! Please let them be able to rub my nose in it!

 

[Neophyte]

El, do you invest in the stock market?

 

[Elephant]

El, do you invest in the stock market?

This isn't the stock market Neo. I understand the concept of market value.

Edit: And I don't trade in futures, so...

 

[Neophyte]

If you understand market value why are you arguing this? We paid what the market forced us to pay. This is no different at all from the stock market.

In a few years, we will see how our investment as grown (or, god forbid, shrunk) and make a determination on whether it was a wise investment or not.

You cannot determine cost today by actual future performance. You can only determine by what it took to do what you wanted to do.

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

everything has a value, if Garcon blows up and starts putting up massive numbers (on par with other players at his position who make relatively the same money) then he is not overpayed, if he does not then he is over paid.

as for inherent value vs implied value, its rather simple, someone on this forum even made a thread about it in regard to Gabbert, someone needs to track players who we "could have had" had we not pulled the trigger on this deal and then compare them to the performance of the player we got.

Simply put, 3 first round picks and a second round pick for one player, that player had better be a probowler who is the difference maker on a superbowl team within 2 years maximum.

all this "market sets the price" justification is BS, I know what my house is worth, if nobody is willing to pay me the fair value I keep my house, if someone offers me a ridiculous amount for it I sell, the houses inherent value never changes, its market value might. obviously other things factor in, the price of other similiar houses, etc etc, thats how I determine value. I think we panicked and overpaid for what is essentially a move up to #2 from #6, and when you look at it that way we vastly overpaid. just because some other bonehead was willing to overpay doesnt make it any less of an overpayment lol

 

[Elephant]

If you understand market value why are you arguing this? We paid what the market forced us to pay. This is no different at all from the stock market.

In a few years, we will see how our investment as grown (or, god forbid, shrunk) and make a determination on whether it was a wise investment or not.

You cannot determine cost today by actual future performance. You can only determine by what it took to do what you wanted to do.

Market value determined the price of the investment, yes. But we will not know the true cost of the investment for year's to come as you pointed out. I think the investment was too steep. This cannot be proved or disproved by the language of the action.

 

[Om]

Unlike fans, Ryman, NFL teams don't have the luxury of applying hindsight to determining whether or not to make a trade or contract offer. They have to deal the reality of what it costs to get things done or not. It's too easy to sit back and say "well, we'll know in three years."

They are in the arena. They have to sniff out market value today and come in high enough to beat out the other guy, or sit back and get beat. Would you rather be a Browns fan today?

REALITY said the cost to land RG3 was exactly what they offered. Holmgren illustrated that more clearly than anyone else could.

REALITY said the contract they offered Garçon was what it had to be to get him based on their understanding of his "market value" TODAY, not in 3 years if he happens to blow up or not.

Fans think they know.

They don't.

Sorry man. Jim Mora tried to tell us all, but only some of us understood what he was talking about.

 

[Neophyte]

And to add one more REALITY to what Om has mentioned, recent history tells us the REALITY of today's NFL is that you MUST have an elite QB to win at the highest levels.

Those don't grow on trees and, with the exception of the stars aligning like they did this this year, they don't hit the Free Agency market either. This year might be the closest this team will come for some time to earning a pick high enough to get a guy with a chance to be that elite QB. We had to take the risk now.

 

[Elephant]

And to add one more REALITY to what Om has mentioned, recent history tells us the REALITY of today's NFL is that you MUST have an elite QB to win at the highest levels.

Those don't grow on trees and, with the exception of the stars aligning like they did this this year, they don't hit the Free Agency market either. This year might be the closest this team will come for some time to earning a pick high enough to get a guy with a chance to be that elite QB. We had to take the risk now.

You invest in hedge funds?

 

[Om]

Yep. The value of a franchise QB is not lost on NFL teams. That's a huge part of any calculation of market value required to make a trade like the Skins did. The Rams only make that trade if they don't take a shot at THEIR franchise QB just two years ago.

 

[Neophyte]

You invest in hedge funds?

No risk, no reward, brother.

Yep. The value of a franchise QB is not lost on NFL teams. That's a huge part of any calculation of market value required to make a trade like the Skins did. The Rams only make that trade if they don't take a shot at THEIR franchise QB just two years ago.

Not only that but the Rams don't get that much for the pick if the player people covet plays any other position on the field. It is only because Luck and Griffin are both viewed as probably franchise QBs that a ransom like that could be exacted for that pick.

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

reality is that if the cost is too high, you stand pat, you dont panic and throw money away.

I love how people assume that all fans are in the same boat, I hate to break it to you but some fans are every bit as savvy as some coaches.

I believe that at least 4 of us called the 3-4 swapa huge error, some of you argued mightlily against us but we were right. Some of us called the Mcrapp debacle what it was, and some of us have been pretty much on the money in regards to the mistakes of this franchise, thats not hindsight thats called paying attention.

You keep saying " thats what the market price was" as though that makes it ok, no that means you stand pat, improve your team and continue to get better, not throw all your eggs in one basket like Mike Ditka and hope its all ok.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Wow, the 3-4 switch has not been a huge error, my goodness. You have to let that one go, brother Ryman.

 

[CounterTrey]

The timing was the only mistake there. The 3-4 worked quite well for us last year and continues to improve as we get more and better players suited to it. As for standing Pat...ya know eff that. We've tried that crap so many times, the ONLY thing we haven't tried is going all in on a LEGIT franchise QB prospect. I'm 100% with ya Ryman on the whole O line rant but this stuff about standing pat is just more of the same settling for mediocrity. I want an attempt to excel here. The only other option that was worth anything was going after Manning and that wasn't happening when we got the big fat rejection. You should hear the Browns fans around here bitch before you settle into standing pat again. They're pissed Holmgren didn't pay MORE than us. It was a steep price but if this kid pans out at all it was so worth it I can't even begin to do it justice.

 

[Om]

Ryman, keep telling yourself and the rest of us you know things you don't. As long as you believe it, and don't mind the rest of us not, it's all good. Makes for lively threads.

 

[Neophyte]

reality is that if the cost is too high, you stand pat, you dont panic and throw money away.

I didn't see any money thrown away. Please enlighten me.

I love how people assume that all fans are in the same boat, I hate to break it to you but some fans are every bit as savvy as some coaches.

Maybe not all fans but most and all fans are in the same boat when it comes to figuring out a teams plans. You don't know anymore than I do and I don't know anymore then you do in that regard. The fact is, with a cagey front office and coaching staff like we currently have, we don't know nothing. Hell, even evaluating what we saw on the field on Sunday is a guessing game because without knowing the specific play call we can't even figure out who made the mistake.

I believe that at least 4 of us called the 3-4 swapa huge error, some of you argued mightlily against us but we were right. Some of us called the Mcrapp debacle what it was, and some of us have been pretty much on the money in regards to the mistakes of this franchise, thats not hindsight thats called paying attention.

You have the right to believe you were right and the rest of us wrong. I have the right to disagree with you. And don't feel like you have the market cornered on being in the minority who happen to be correct. Even a blind squirrel and all that...

You keep saying " thats what the market price was" as though that makes it ok, no that means you stand pat, improve your team and continue to get better, not throw all your eggs in one basket like Mike Ditka and hope its all ok.

Standing pat is going to get us another year without a franchise QB. Oh, it would get us some more good players and if they had done the same in this years draft as they did in last years we would have won a few more games this year. Maybe hit .500. In other words, just good enough to break everyone's heart again but not bad enough to finish in position for a franchise QB.

When are the names E Manning, A Rogers, D Brees, B Rothlesburger, P Manning, and T Brady going to sink in far enough for you to understand that in today's NFL you have to have a franchise QB to win it all? Those 6 names have won 11 of the last 12 Super Bowls.

This is a passing league now and with the way Goodell is working at increasing the protection of the QB it is only going to become more so. That starts with the QB. It is nice to say that any team can win it all but the truth is that it is seriously hard to do without an elite talent under center.

The price to move up for Griffin (or Luck) this year was steep. No question. And no question it is a gamble.

But Ryman, no one is right 100% of the time. Not even you.