Drafting by the Numbers: Vinny vs. Bruce vs. Ron!

[bifflog]

As we continue to enjoy our newfound leadership with a clue, I thought it might be fun to revisit what has come before.

This is purely for fun, and I am no data scientist, so use this for entertainment purposes only

Below graphs represent all the draft picks for Vinny, Bruce Et Al (Shanahan/Gruden/McCloughan), and Ron, as I see the comparisons come up a lot. The first graph is draft selection # versus career AV (per Pro Football Reference), and the second graph is draft selection # versus average career AV/yr. The red quadrants are median values for each dataset.

Some stats for each regime:

The average Vinny pick played for 4.895833333 years in 54.97916667 games, achieved 0 AP awards, made 0.3275862069 Pro Bowls, was a primary starter for 1.517241379 years, had an average career wAV of 14.16666667.
The average Bruce Et Al pick played for 4.962025316 years in 58.91139241 games, achieved 0.04597701149 AP awards, made 0.3908045977 Pro Bowls, was a primary starter for 1.931034483years, had an average career wAV of 17.39240506.
The average Ron pick played for 3.125 years in 38.34375 games, achieved 0 AP awards, made 0.0303030303 Pro Bowls, was a primary starter for 0.7878787879 years, had an average career wAV of 7.875.

A lot of Ron's guys are still going obviously so it can get better! (yeah right...)

I've attached my python script and data set if anyone is curious.

 

[Conn]

I’d rather kill myself (I’ll go now before the urge grows too strong)

 

[bifflog]

I’d rather kill myself (I’ll go now before the urge grows too strong)

I could have prefaced it with a disturbing content warning?

 

[skinsmarydu]

I could have prefaced it with a disturbing content warning?

Good Lord, yes please...

Edit, add: and something to slash our wrists with...

 

[DixieFlatline]

Love this type of thing! What does the size of the bubble represent?

 

[bifflog]

Love this type of thing! What does the size of the bubble represent?

Number of games played!

 

[DixieFlatline]

At first glance if you look at each relative draft pick spot, it's for the most part there are more Bruce Allen picks at the top, Cerrato in the middle, and Ron at the bottom. That's probably no surprise, but always good to see the numbers.

 

[Darc Requiem]

Recreation of me when I read the thread title...

 

[Die Hard]

That’s like comparing erectile dysfuction, anal fissures and genital warts.

Sadist. 😂

 

[skinsinparadise]

Just going off the top of my head, no stats

Better W-L record under Vinny than Bruce. Swung harder in FA, more big misses but bigger FA hits, too.

Bruce OK with first round picks. Vinny, too. But lots of misses after that round. Both made really dumb trades -- Vinny made more of them. Bruce the master of the cheap uninspiring FA signings who mostly failed.

Ron was in his own orbit -- swinging and missing on every first round pick and doing meh in the later rounds. Bad in FA with the exception of the first year which was conducted by Kyle Smith.

For the other GMs faults, they had some press on the gas off seasons. Ron didn't seem to have a press on the gas bone in his body.

Vinny though is a clown, had the biggest excuse. That is, Dan was reportedly at the height of his involvement during that era.

Ron IMO easily the worst of the three.

I haven't thought that much about Shanny. But he had a stint when he was in control not Bruce. Some hits: Kirk, Jordan Reid, Chris Thompson, Trent, Kerrigan. plenty of misses. He was probably the best of the lot.

 

[RedWolf]

Comparing erectile dysfuction, anal fissures and genital warts.

Sadist. 😂

New thread title? 🤣

 

[Die Hard]

New thread title? 🤣

 

[AngryChuckT]

Glad to see it wasn't recency bias on my part. Statistics prove RR was in fact the worst talent evaluator in my time as a fan - at least in the WOS era.

Been an almost straight-line decline since BB but RR was just putrid.

 

[DWinzit]

I'd like to just put that whole brutal era(s) in the rear view and never revisit.

 

[burgold]

You can almost fold that into the cook versus the grocer argument.

Did Shanny, Gruden, Rivera have a chance? With Shanny and Rivera there is less sympathy because of the power structure. They were technically above the GM and in charge of everything, but still... It also reminds you of how remarkable Gibbs was. Even with Cerrato buying the groceries, he managed to get to the playoffs twice and was THIS close to making the championship game. Injuries (groceries) just took their toll and the team ran out of gas, but Gibbs milked everything he could out of that group.

 

[Ashburn Dave]

All I see in those diagrams is a meteor shower reigning down on us compliments of those buffoons.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

I love the effort here!

I'd like to see another Bubble Chart, but done by entire draft classes. AV on one axis, maybe total draft capital on another axis, and then the same games played for bubble size? So Ron Rivera would get 4 bubbles, Bruce theoretically gets 10 bubbles, etc.

I do have questions which are understandably hard to resolve about who counts as a draft pick for whom. Vinny at times had less or more say, his power fluctuated. Bruce had less control earlier on with Mike Shanahan. Dan Snyder overrode everyone at will too. Like, wasn't the Trent Williams pick more Mike Shanahan than Bruce? The RG3 Trade was Snyder/Bruce more than Mike Shanahan. Likewise what about the 2015-6 drafts when Scot McCloughan theoretically had more say than Bruce. I say in theory because it's a little disputed, and I've also read Bruce still controlled it but McCloughan set up the draft boards.

 

[skinsfan4128]