Coronavirus - COVID19

[Boone]

I think that article is one of the most alarmist I have seen (sorry Bob). First of all - he starts out with the idea that healthcare facilities are already collapsing. I think that may be true for the worst of the worst areas - where they literally did nothing to try and stem the spread of the virus (Italy comes to mind). But implying that as a universal is beyond misleading. Most hospitals in the US have seen a relative # of cases and are hardly collapsing. That doesn't mean it cannot happen in a worst case scenario. But it is not accurate at all currently. He also uses an algorithm that is highly suspect to predict we could/will have 10 million deaths in the US if 'we do nothing'. First of all - we are NOT doing nothing. The US has taken fairly drastic steps to slow the spread of COVID-19. Secondly - he's using a mortality factor that is very high - and which is impossible to establish currently. I think he makes some reasonable points - that we only have some idea of infection #'s and deaths in more developed countries and that the toll in less developed countries may not be accurately captured. But predicting that the US will go from 187 deaths to as many as millions (he posits it could be more than 10 million)... I just think that's absolute alarmist speculation. The author is an MBA who, it appears, is some kind of software developer. In the comments on that page - I don't see a single one challenging his assertions or the #'s. If I'm wrong, I'll take comfort in knowing I won't have to do a mea culpa - because I'm going to die.

 

[Boone]

Here are a couple of interesting articles I found. The first is just a general caution about data and 'expertise' that's being put out on social media by non-experts.

'Im Not an Epidemiologist...'

I thought it was interesting that the author of your article acknowledges that he feels putting out information to the public quickly, even if it's flawed or contains errors, is better than waiting for perfect information that has been vetted. I'm not sure I agree with that. To be fair - there are some virologists who feel his #'s have merit.

Here's another article from a non-expert that I think makes some strong points.

Coronavirus Perspective

I hope to God Pueyo's numbers prove to be horribly off-base. I'll grant you this - that no one, not even CDC and WHO experts really know how bad this threat will really turn out to be.

 

[Boone]

Do we really need the running death tally ticker on the news channels? Talk about raising anxiety...

 

[MikefromOH]

its all about sensationalism. instead of being right, they want to be first.

"this just in...."

 

[riggins44]

The best thing to do is stop watching the news. I know it is hard to be in with no sports on TV. We have (hopefully) a 14 day supply of everything to survive. Thing is grocery stores won’t close. Relax and have an adult beverage.

 

[MikefromOH]

I work in Cuyahoga and live in Medina.

 

[Boone]

Be safe Mike!

 

[Neophyte]

I think that article is one of the most alarmist I have seen (sorry Bob). First of all - he starts out with the idea that healthcare facilities are already collapsing. I think that may be true for the worst of the worst areas - where they literally did nothing to try and stem the spread of the virus (Italy comes to mind). But implying that as a universal is beyond misleading. Most hospitals in the US have seen a relative # of cases and are hardly collapsing. That doesn't mean it cannot happen in a worst case scenario. But it is not accurate at all currently. He also uses an algorithm that is highly suspect to predict we could/will have 10 million deaths in the US if 'we do nothing'. First of all - we are NOT doing nothing. The US has taken fairly drastic steps to slow the spread of COVID-19. Secondly - he's using a mortality factor that is very high - and which is impossible to establish currently. I think he makes some reasonable points - that we only have some idea of infection #'s and deaths in more developed countries and that the toll in less developed countries may not be accurately captured. But predicting that the US will go from 187 deaths to as many as millions (he posits it could be more than 10 million)... I just think that's absolute alarmist speculation. The author is an MBA who, it appears, is some kind of software developer. In the comments on that page - I don't see a single one challenging his assertions or the #'s. If I'm wrong, I'll take comfort in knowing I won't have to do a mea culpa - because I'm going to die.

I can't disagree that the opening line is sensational. Maybe too sensational.

Having said that, I still have a lot of macho boneheads in my news feed bitching about everyone being upset about catching a cold and how seriously overblown this all is. Several of them are elected officials in mid-sized Texas cities.

Yes, we are doing something but honestly, it doesn't look like enough. We had more confirmed cases in this country when we started enacting voluntary measures than Italy had when they took mandated measures. We are leaving it up to individual states and counties as to how far those measures go and how mandatory they are.

I think his numbers need to be alarmist. The problem here is that this thing most closely resembles the flu. My guess is that every single person here has had the flu and we all obviously recovered. There is no respect for the flu because it is known. Tell me that we wouldn't all be taking this a lot more seriously if the dead were bleeding from the eyes, nose, and ears as they went.

I don't want to see a panic but I do want to see folks taking this seriously. A healthy respect is called for. There are still churches down here that are meeting 3 times a week. Hundreds of people in one place with no thought to who has been where encountering what over the last several days. Most of those churches have significant numbers of older members too.

The death count in the US has jumped by a hundred since yesterday morning and the total number of cases in the US has leap-frogged Germany for 4th biggest globally. By this time tomorrow, I expect us to have surpassed Spain for 3rd. Both Spain and Germany have instituted stricter measures than we have here in many places.

Maybe I'm wrong though. And if I am I will happily eat crow for as long as you want to dish it out, brother.

 

[MikefromOH]

I'd rather eat crow with you, than console your family at a funeral. I agree with you 100%.

 

[Boone]

We can only speak to what we are each experiencing Bob. Here in NC people are scared shitless and I don't see anyone minimizing this, particularly not public officials. Maybe that's a Texas thing I agree there is value in folks taking this very seriously. But I think that article (again - produced by someone who literally knows nothing about viruses and pandemics) is absolutely alarmist and where I disagree with you is that promoting panic and hysteria is helpful. I don't know how bad this will get - none of us do. I would be curious what measures that aren't yet in place you are advocating for? People are not going to work and have been asked to limit their out of home movements to grocery stores, pharmacies, etc... Air travel in and out of the United States is for all intents and purposes halted. You can still move from state to state - but that's about it. There will always be idiots who refuse to heed instructions and common sense. But I think most people are being super cautious. What more should we be doing?

I obviously know people are dying. I wish like most of you that my wife and I got to stay home and keep our risk low. But we have to work in a hospital and don't have that option and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous and concerned about that. All that being said - I don't think current data supports predicting millions or tens of millions of Americans dead from this virus. I think those kinds of statements are panicking and scaring the shit out of people and I think we should be a littler more careful to separate facts we know from conjecture.

 

[Neophyte]

I'm not trying to promote panic, John. Honest.

And yeah, I have little doubt that Texas is in a world of its own down here when it comes to this thing. My wife is still required to go into the office every day and the owners of her company, in the high-risk age bracket themselves, were singularly unconcerned when one of the company's contractors who had been in the office just a couple days before reported to my wife's office mate that he thought he had the virus but wasn't going to get tested. The response was that the owners knew he had been sick and didn't feel there was any risk. That is just one example but I could give you a dozen that I've witnessed or that people are putting on FB from the first-person perspective.

I am glad that NC is being smarter about it. Here, the local governments are having to lead because the state government has been slow. Even then, some places are way off the pace. Dallas County shut down large gatherings 10 days ago and shut down restaurants and bars on Monday. Right next door, Tarrant County and Ft. Worth finally asked people to limit social interaction on Wednesday or something and didn't finally take definitive action to limit gathering size or close public meeting places until Friday.

If you look around you can find projections based on a number of action plans. I've seen 4 action levels defined - no action, Texas-style social distancing, Italian lockdown, and lockdowns like have been put in place in SE Asia. The "Texas-style social distancing" is more effective than no action at all but nowhere near as effective as Italian or Asian measures. I fear it is going to get a lot of folks dead.

For the record, I appreciate folks like you and your wife who are in the medical industry and just keep doing your jobs. You guys and folks just like you all over the US are amazing to me.

 

[Beetlejuice]

I can't disagree that the opening line is sensational. Maybe too sensational.

Having said that, I still have a lot of macho boneheads in my news feed bitching about everyone being upset about catching a cold and how seriously overblown this all is. Several of them are elected officials in mid-sized Texas cities.

Yes, we are doing something but honestly, it doesn't look like enough. We had more confirmed cases in this country when we started enacting voluntary measures than Italy had when they took mandated measures. We are leaving it up to individual states and counties as to how far those measures go and how mandatory they are.

I think his numbers need to be alarmist. The problem here is that this thing most closely resembles the flu. My guess is that every single person here has had the flu and we all obviously recovered. There is no respect for the flu because it is known. Tell me that we wouldn't all be taking this a lot more seriously if the dead were bleeding from the eyes, nose, and ears as they went.

I don't want to see a panic but I do want to see folks taking this seriously. A healthy respect is called for. There are still churches down here that are meeting 3 times a week. Hundreds of people in one place with no thought to who has been where encountering what over the last several days. Most of those churches have significant numbers of older members too.

The death count in the US has jumped by a hundred since yesterday morning and the total number of cases in the US has leap-frogged Germany for 4th biggest globally. By this time tomorrow, I expect us to have surpassed Spain for 3rd. Both Spain and Germany have instituted stricter measures than we have here in many places.

Maybe I'm wrong though. And if I am I will happily eat crow for as long as you want to dish it out, brother.

We're already third. We've barely moved ahead of Spain, but have less than 10% of the deaths they do. We also have 8 times the population they do, so I don't get alarmed by moving past countries vastly smaller than we are. Spain's population is about the same as California, so it should be expected for us to surpass them.

Btw, I am in the camp of taking this extremely seriously and being pissed off at people who don't care. Here in Va, we recently had a story on the news where teens were filming themselves on social media going into a grocery store and coughing on all the produce because they thought it was hilarious. But Virginia has laws that hold parents responsible for the actions of their kids, so what would happen if one of them were to test positive, an outbreak occurred, and people started dying because of their stupid stunt?

Not to mention the 20 year old asshat in Florida on spring break who said in an interview if he gets corona, he gets corona, but he's not gonna let it stop him from partying with his friends. We were all a little stupid at 20, but I'd like to think we were nowhere near that stupid.

On the plus side, Kroger had bread for the first time in weeks yesterday. I never thought I'd be so happy to eat a sandwich.

 

[Boone]

I'm not trying to promote panic, John. Honest.

And yeah, I have little doubt that Texas is in a world of its own down here when it comes to this thing. My wife is still required to go into the office every day and the owners of her company, in the high-risk age bracket themselves, were singularly unconcerned when one of the company's contractors who had been in the office just a couple days before reported to my wife's office mate that he thought he had the virus but wasn't going to get tested. The response was that the owners knew he had been sick and didn't feel there was any risk. That is just one example but I could give you a dozen that I've witnessed or that people are putting on FB from the first-person perspective.

I am glad that NC is being smarter about it. Here, the local governments are having to lead because the state government has been slow. Even then, some places are way off the pace. Dallas County shut down large gatherings 10 days ago and shut down restaurants and bars on Monday. Right next door, Tarrant County and Ft. Worth finally asked people to limit social interaction on Wednesday or something and didn't finally take definitive action to limit gathering size or close public meeting places until Friday.

If you look around you can find projections based on a number of action plans. I've seen 4 action levels defined - no action, Texas-style social distancing, Italian lockdown, and lockdowns like have been put in place in SE Asia. The "Texas-style social distancing" is more effective than no action at all but nowhere near as effective as Italian or Asian measures. I fear it is going to get a lot of folks dead.

For the record, I appreciate folks like you and your wife who are in the medical industry and just keep doing your jobs. You guys and folks just like you all over the US are amazing to me.

I’m addressing the article Bob - not you.

 

[MikefromOH]

OH Governor has issued our lockdown. That doesn't change my life much. I pretty much hate society and most people. But, now we CAN'T do it and that is a little freaky.

 

[Neophyte]

I’m addressing the article Bob - not you.

I know, brother.

However, I did post it here which makes me culpable for passing it on if it's deemed to be overly alarmist.

I was just trying to impart what is happening here which I think is likely very different from what you are seeing there. Seems like your people are being more responsive than the average Texan.

 

[MikefromOH]

Rand Paul tested positive.

It makes me wonder IF President Trump tested positive what that would mean. He is in the age range of people who are hardest hit from it. He would be at risk of dying from it, and the people who also would have been around him that would now be effected.

 

[Boone]

That wasn't my thought process at all Bob - sorry if it sounded that way. All I have heard for 3 weeks is 'coronavirus ....' - I can't even keep up with the work emails. I think there's a natural dynamic that this conversation between good friends points out. I believe that most people are appropriately very worried about this and taking precautions. But there are camps on the fringes - some making the 'this is no worse than a bad cold' argument and others the 'we're all gonna die if we don't....' argument. I think as with most things, the vast majority of Americans are solidly in between which is where they should be. Be cautious, follow actions recommended by healthcare 'experts', take this seriously. I think that's likely even the case in more 'independent thinking' places like Texas - it's just that when folks are being stupid or ignoring warnings, it stands out like a sore thumb.

I didn't have any problem with your posting it....who the hell am I to tell anyone what to post unless it violates our board philosophy? I was just surprised at what I felt was alarmist dire predictions made in it. To me, that's beyond ballsy for some non-qualified civilian to be putting out there for the hysterical social media universe to go into a feeding frenzy over.

 

[Boone]

Rand Paul tested positive.

It makes me wonder IF President Trump tested positive what that would mean. He is in the age range of people who are hardest hit from it. He would be at risk of dying from it, and the people who also would have been around him that would now be effected.

Pretty much everyone in the succession order is in their 70's and beyond...so.... I think where we are right now, with both Trump and Pence *apparently* having dodged bullets with folks around them positive, that they will be exceedingly careful about potential exposure. Whether you love or hate the current leadership, the last thing we need is to insert more chaos into the equation.

 

[MikefromOH]

Pretty much everyone in the succession order is in their 70's and beyond...so.... I think where we are right now, with both Trump and Pence *apparently* having dodged bullets with folks around them positive, that they will be exceedingly careful about potential exposure. Whether you love or hate the current leadership, the last thing we need is to insert more chaos into the equation.

Yeah, I definitely want to keep this as non political party as possible. But, the thought of the President of this country testing positive is scary. That means most likely he gets it, the VP gets it, his cabinet gets it, etc.

Not to be a conspiracy theorist; but isn't that a perfect way to topple a country?

Because, in reality, Schumer and Pelosi are exposed too. That is going to be pretty much everyone who may even have the knowledge or ability to run the country.

THAT is completely non-political. I mean position of power, not people.

 

[Neophyte]

No apology necessary, John. We are good. Always have been and always will be.

I think that the article spoke to me because of the numbers. It was math I could understand and put forward by a guy who does what I do so that language was a natural for me. However, that doesn't make him anymore right than the next layman (which he certainly is in terms of virology), nor does it suddenly make him an expert in this field.