Commanders Coffee #5

[Canadian Hog]

Week 1 of the Commanders' inaugural season is in the books and while it was a rollercoaster of a game, the Burgundy and Gold thankfully prevailed vs. Jacksonville.

This week's question is a simple one. Is Carson Wentz going to be enough of a difference maker for the Commanders in 2022 based on what you saw on Sunday vs. Jacksonville? Will he make up for some of our deficiencies elsewhere and allow the team to thrive in 2022?

 

[Boone]

The first half of the question is easy. The second part is a bitch

He will absolutely be a 'difference maker'. We saw it in microcosm yesterday. He has the ability to make electric plays we haven't seen a Washington offense make since 2012 RG3. Couple that with an absolutely stocked offensive roster, and I think we're going to see some really exciting play on offense this season. Wentz is pretty fearless and is unafraid to go for it on any given play. But that's what makes your second question so tough to answer.

If Wentz doesn't lead those two TD drives to win yesterday, this fanbase would be absolutely apopleptic this morning. We'd be bemoaning the fact that everyone was right about Wentz, we made another epic mistake trading for him, it'll be a 3 win season, etc... Now all those things may still prove to be true, but because he set aside the mistakes and rallied himself and the offense to a win, we can be optimistic this morning to an extent.

The bottom line in 2022 is that Wentz will have to have many more positive plays than negative ones if the team is to turn a corner. My gut feeling is that he will. In a way, it's great that he saw some major adversity yesterday, and he showed all of us (most importantly his teammates and fellow players) that he will continue to fight and grind after negative plays.

 

[Boone]

If we can continue to be at the top of the NFL leaderboard week to week in terms of moving the ball - the answer as to whether the team will thrive is a resounding YES.

 

[Knightingale]

The worrying thing about that graph above is the Jaxonville line.

They lead the league in 1st down conversion (38%) and were second in 2nd down conversion (66%). What does that say about our Defense at this point?

Limited sample size, but it would have been nice to see them down the bottom.

Talking about bottom... LOVE that Dallas are second from last. Could the division be wide open? Too early?
Eagles offense looks good (albeit against Detroit) but their D also made Detroit's offense look good.

 

[Boone]

3/10 on converting 3rd downs. That’s ultimately what matters.

 

[Primus Porcus]

The worrying thing about that graph above is the Jaxonville line.

They lead the league in 1st down conversion (38%) and were second in 2nd down conversion (66%). What does that say about our Defense at this point?

Limited sample size, but it would have been nice to see them down the bottom.

Talking about bottom... LOVE that Dallas are second from last. Could the division be wide open? Too early?
Eagles offense looks good (albeit against Detroit) but their D also made Detroit's offense look good.

I would be interested in seeing if penalties are considered in this. If they include a situation where there's a PI on 1st down and that goes down as a 'conversion' since the play ultimately results in a 1st down.

 

[Knightingale]

Is it though? To get the 3/10 on Third Down, you've got to GET THEM TO 3rd down. And on 66% of down series we aren't doing that. At a figure of 66% that means our Defense was the 2nd WORST in the league at actually putting the opposition into that 3rd down position. That's a trend that can't continue.

It's actually saying that Jax converted to 1st down on 75% on each set of downs. 38% of the time it's a convert on 1st. 28% of the time they convert on 2nd down. 9% they convert on 3rd down.

While that 9% is nice (let's face it, getting teams off the field on 3rd down last year was a struggle) this is still indicating that Jax converted on 75% of each Downs set. Which is pretty high.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Is it though? To get the 3/10 on Third Down, you've got to GET THEM TO 3rd down. And on 66% of down series we aren't doing that. At a figure of 66% that means our Defense was the 2nd WORST in the league at actually putting the opposition into that 3rd down position. That's a trend that can't continue.

It's actually saying that Jax converted to 1st down on 75% on each set of downs. 38% of the time it's a convert on 1st. 28% of the time they convert on 2nd down. 9% they convert on 3rd down.

While that 9% is nice (let's face it, getting teams off the field on 3rd down last year was a struggle) this is still indicating that Jax converted on 75% of each Downs set. Which is pretty high.

Thats why I'm wondering... on that screen shot i shared, Jax had 5 straight 'first down' plays.

Does to data omit a penalty against the offense, or does that count as 'not converting?' I have a feeling they dont 'count' that play, which is false... that's a play that is not a conversion. Jacksonville had 13 penalties for 90 yards. A handful of those on offense.

If the defense commits a penalty, is that also treated the same way or does that count 'for' the offense and 'against' the defense?

just curiousity about the stats...

 

[Boone]

I don’t believe that number - I think they are including (as ST surmised) penalties including on1st down where they get a fresh set of downs. Still want to be at the top I suppose vs the bottom but that would really skew things.

You make a good point, just not sure I believe those numbers…

 

[Knightingale]

It just jumped out to me that although we're up there at number 5, which is excellent, the team we were playing was only a couple of places below us.

So if we toot the horn about how well our offense did, then we probably should be concerned about how well the Jags did against our D - and is that a reflection on how well THEY did, or how poorly WE did?

That 3rd down stat is encouraging.