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Capital Obsession: Delving Into a Numbers Game

You didn't answer my question... :p
 
Yeah, but you could do it using this model, but it would probably be a bit more of a pain.

I think I'm going to be making some tweaks to the formula, though.

What's your guys opinion on this one:

If a runner gains yards OVER the necessary yardage, I give them bonus points (.2 on 1st/2nd down and .5 on 3rd/4th down) for every extra yard gained. But for every yard UNDER what's needed, they only receive the fail negative point.

I think, for example, I should change it to this:
1st and 10, Gain of 3, Fail (-1 pt), 1 yard under (-.2) Total Loss: 1.2 points

OR

3rd and 3, Loss of 5, Fail (-1 pt), 8 yards under necessary yardage (-4.0) Total Loss: -5 points

Currently it would work like this:
1st and 10, Gain of 3, Fail (-1 pt) Total Loss: 1 points

OR

3rd and 3, Loss of 5, Fail (-1 pt), 2 yard loss or more (-2) Total Loss: -3 points

Opinions? It's not that difficult a change to make, just recalculating points. I just don't know how beneficial it would be.

KDawg, I hate to mention something that would make things more complicated for you, but I'm wondering if you might want somehow to incorporate field position in your calculations? Gaining 5 yards on a third and 3 at the 50 yard line wouldn't carry as much weight in comparative importance as would gaining the same 5 yards on a third and 3 at the opponents 20 yard line. It, in that instance, could have a noticeable effect on play-calling as defenses tend to operate differently in the red zone than they do at mid-field. Also a third and 3 on the opponents 20-if not made-would make bringing out the field goal unit much more likely than finding yourself with a 1st down on the opponents 17.

Like I said, sorry about complicating things.
 
KDawg, I hate to mention something that would make things more complicated for you, but I'm wondering if you might want somehow to incorporate field position in your calculations? Gaining 5 yards on a third and 3 at the 50 yard line wouldn't carry as much weight in comparative importance as would gaining the same 5 yards on a third and 3 at the opponents 20 yard line. It, in that instance, could have a noticeable effect on play-calling as defenses tend to operate differently in the red zone than they do at mid-field. Also a third and 3 on the opponents 20-if not made-would make bringing out the field goal unit much more likely than finding yourself with a 1st down on the opponents 17.

Like I said, sorry about complicating things.

You're absolutely right, and it's something I thought about when revising the original formula. But it's a ton of extra to add. Admittedly, it's entirely possible for someone to receive a "fail" grade by running for 6 yards on a 3rd and 8... But due to that run it puts them in field goal range and they wind up with three points due to it. That's not a true fail.

But I feel like that overcomplicates things for very little effect on the total score, at least for the effort at the moment. But you are without a doubt correct. And I thought the same.
 
I like your original one, remember KISS, lol, besides its a baseline, not a be all and end all.

the simple formula shows basic pass/fail and is easy to explain and interpret, anyone picking it apart is gonna keep coming up with variables anyway.

was the other teams run defence better than their overall defence? injuries to the front 7, injuries to the runners Oline bottom line they either got the necessary yardage or they did not. in our case far too often they did not, hence the score.
 

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