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BGO Blind Pig: Washington Commanders Season Opener at Tampa Bay

Boone

The Commissioner
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The Pigs give a rundown of what kind of threat the Tampa Bay Bucs represent on Sunday, how Dan Quinn and Company might attack them, and make some predictions on the outcome. Let Washington's journey to glory begin - Hail!

 
A game prediction from this particular mouth-breathing fan:

Mostly a defensive battle. Tampa Bay 20, Washington 19 (with a failed xp attempt).

Daniels plays well and Washington scores 2 TDs; 1 RZ pass to Zach Ertz, 1 rushing for Jayden Daniels. Tampa scores 2 TDs through the air; 1 long to Jaylen McMillian vs Forbes, 1 RZ to Mike Evans vs Forbes.
 
I honestly have no feel for how we are going to do. In the old days, I would look at the first quarters and second quarters of preseason games to gauge how our ones did against their ones, but you can't do that anymore because so few play and those that do only get a snap or two. The interesting challenge for Tampa Bay is that everything is new: New offense, new defense, almost an entirely new roster. That means they can't be confident they can predict what we'll do or where our schematic weaknesses lie. The interesting challenge for Washington is everything is new. New offense, new defense, almost an entirely new roster, very little experience playing together so they don't know exactly how the guy next to them will react to certain situations.

I guess the big question who gets the biggest advantage out of the newness. Tampa was a playoff team last year so you have to assume we're the underdogs, but they aren't the scariest playoff caliber team. Washington was pathetic last year. I don't think anyone expects that level of incompetence this year, but the beginning could still be very rough.
 
The Bucs also have a brand new OC who has only been an OC one other time (and that was with the Rams where he probably wasn’t doing a lot). Could be a big factor as well.
 
Wahoooo I got a shout out! Thanks! 😀

Fantastic podcast, as usual! I agree with pretty much everything said and am really fired up for this game.

My brother is a Buccs fan and he reckons this will be close. I hope so. We’re watching the game at his place as and I really want a good showing.

I’m leaning towards a narrow defeat, maybe 24-21. I think it’s too early to be a complete team that can beat a good team out of the gate, but I think we’ll show up and compete. I think it’ll be an effort we can be proud of and I think we’ll see flashes of potential. This team just has too much chemistry to fail hard.

Bold prediction…

I’ll give a couple. McCaffrey leads us in receiving yardage. And Davis leads on sacks.
Boom!
 
My gut has us losing however, so many unknowns, my anxiety over Forbes getting toasted by Godwin is haunting me already and is really pushing me against what could be a week 1 victory.

Tampa jumps out to an early 17-3 lead at half time, Skins rally but fall short 24-20.

Bold prediction:
Allen has a sack and a strip fumble. Daniels has 250 yards, 1 td passing and 33 yards and 1 td rushing, no picks.
 
Unfortunately as I alluded to in the pod, I think Forbes will fail but it will take 3-4 games for them to demote him. I’m hoping in this game that we generate enough pass rush (as Neophyte described) to keep both Evan’s and Godwin from being difference makers on Sunday.
 
Unfortunately as I alluded to in the pod, I think Forbes will fail but it will take 3-4 games for them to demote him. I’m hoping in this game that we generate enough pass rush (as Neophyte described) to keep both Evan’s and Godwin from being difference makers on Sunday.
I want to have the faith that the front 7 destroys Tampa's will to live and we won't have to watch the secondary ball out to compete, however by game time and after tailgating I may have gotten enough liquid faith in my system.
 
I’ll tell you who I am going to be watching very closely in this one - and that’s Jon Allen. He has the talent to be a dominant player but last season I felt he sort of lost faith in the defensive staff and his play really dropped off. He seems to have had a rebirth with this new regime and I hope that translates into the best play we’ve seen from him yet.
 
Looks like we're in for a rainy game today, and maybe a possible delay due to lightning as an fyi as a storm is expected to roll in around 3:30p. I am monitoring the situation from our hotel room about 8 miles away.
 
This is the longest f’n day. It’s 5:30pm local time here and I still have 6 hours to go until kickoff. Oof.
 
Well at least it's not a Sunday night game Chris, see the positive or something like that
 
I agree with Boone on Forbes. I can't recall anyone pointing him out in camp or preseason for positive plays made on defense.

He just looks like a former #1 pick that is getting the benefit of the doubt for a few games to see if he can catch lightning in a bottle.

My biggest issue with Forbes is we were told he was a playmaker and good instincts in coverage while having a slight frame, etc.

Instead he looks to LACK those natural instincts in coverage and making plays on the ball.
 
Yeah, the Bengals game will be at 3am. I’ll probably just set the alarm for that one.
 
I will reserve most of my thoughts for this week's podcast, but I think it's difficult to take much from this game, and we would probably be foolish to try.

It's only one game and I don't know the predictive history of winning an opener in terms of success over the course of the season, but I doubt it's much of a predictor, especially when you are dealing with so many unknowns and change in a single offseason. However, I think anyone (like me) who fantasized that this team could sneak into the playoffs in 2024, probably is rethinking that position after today.

Those who were filled with feelings of 'nothings changed', 'more of the same mess we've seen for years', and 'same old Redskins' got plenty of ammo to support those sentiments. Those who expected little, and watched with the future in mind will probably focus on Jayden Daniel's clear potential and poise.

It was a weird game from the outset. The officiating was weird, in terms of what they called and what they didn't call (especially the strange use of replay to overturn a huge penalty on the Bucs - apparently as part of a new rule allowing it). Whether they got it right or not, that new option is going to cause a lot of heartburn over the course of this season. Surprise surprise that the NFL decided getting their officiating crews even more involved in determining game outcomes was a great idea.

Quick takeaways:
1. We need a new kicker - like tomorrow.
2. Austin Ekeler is a very dangerous weapon.
3. The Bucs offense is intimidating
4. Our pass rush was anemic for the most part tonight, and even when they were able to get in the backfield, could do little more than disrupt and annoy Mayfield .
5. The offensive gameplan was very odd. Terry Mclaurin was barely involved. Tons of designed runs for Daniels. One of the worst trick play attempts in recent memory. I have no more inkling of what Kliff Kingsbury plans to do on offense after this one than I did coming in.
6. Forbes is just bad guys. Like 'turn in your playbook and good luck in your future endeavors' bad. Sometimes, you just have to admit you (they) made a big mistake and move on. The rest of the secondary, particularly Quan Martin, did not look much like an NFL level unit, but to be fair, we were playing against a very good offense and QB. We can't blame high school coaches anymore for that.

There's a lot more to talk about. I expected a lot more from this squad in this opener in terms of fire and energy. It was kind of a lackluster affair by any account and that disappointed me. But the big 'lesson' if there is one is that our fanbase is going to have to survive some more lumps along the way to hopefully a better future, especially in 2024. We won't like taking that medicine, as we're sick of having to do so. But I doubt we can avoid having to do so.
 
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