BGO Blind Pig: The QB Decision

I am like burgold, I go back and forth between Maye and Daniels on almost a daily basis. Galdi had Trevor Sikkema on this morning who made a compelling case for Maye.

I m glad I am not making the decision. If I had to pull the trigger today, it’s Maye who has a cannon arm, all the measurables, and is a less risky pick.
 
I'll say it again ... the guys making this decision are operating on orders of magnitude more relevant data than we are. Actual film study, face-to-face meetings, exhaustive interviews with coaches, scouts, opponents, teammates, friends, lovers, etc.

By the time they hand in the card Thursday night they won't be conflicted. They will have a strong conviction about the name they write down.

*

Or ...

Heads Or Tails Flip GIF by Hollyoaks
 
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the eyeball test. Some guys, you can just see how they get hit and it's different.

RG3 was one of those guys. He struggled at avoiding solid contact. Russell Wilson was the antithesis of that. He routinely ran, for LARGE gains at times, but appeared to never take a clean hit. He never got squared up. Do dual threat QBs get hurt at a higher rate? No, probably not. Freak injuries happen in the pocket ALL THE TIME. In fact you could argue you're MORE vulnerable there because of the surrounding area. Joe Burrow is not a running QB, and Allen got blocked into his knee and turned it inside out. That kind of stuff happens, but guys who regularly run.. some have a 'gamer' mentality and they're not programed a certain way... others have that RB mentality, and they're programmed to know how to take a hit and not get squared up.
The key to this, I guess, is to take the time to list out all the QB injuries from the last decade or so, then filter out the ‘freak’ injuries from contact like Burrow or Smith and filter out the injuries that aren’t attributable to any contact at all. Essentially remove the injuries that muddy the waters. Then see what you’ve got left and determine if ‘running’ QBs are represented as a greater proportion of that list.

There are some gray areas in there though. Like does getting hit repeatedly wear you down so you end up with a non-contract related injury?

Be an interesting exercise to analyse all this though.
 
If you Google search the question of injury rate for mobile/running QB's versus pocket passers, most "studies" seem to indicate the guys on the run actually get hurt less. Makes sense to me ... guys on the move at least have a chance protect themselves by seeing hits coming and adjusting. Guys standing in the pocket with their eyes downfield are at the mercy of the hitter and the trash at their feet.

And of course, blind dumb luck plays a big part as well.
 
The key to this, I guess, is to take the time to list out all the QB injuries from the last decade or so, then filter out the ‘freak’ injuries from contact like Burrow or Smith and filter out the injuries that aren’t attributable to any contact at all. Essentially remove the injuries that muddy the waters. Then see what you’ve got left and determine if ‘running’ QBs are represented as a greater proportion of that list.

There are some gray areas in there though. Like does getting hit repeatedly wear you down so you end up with a non-contract related injury?

Be an interesting exercise to analyse all this though.

‘Freak’ injuries (imho) are another red herring. For example, a guy tears his Achilles slipping while stepping off a curb… in a lot of cases, there was a partial tear waiting to become a full tear…. Guys get injured often and are not diagnosed a) because they hide injury and b) because diagnostics are imperfect and often don’t reveal major injuries until they are really major.

There are SO many variables. I am not sure it’s possible to provide an answer looking at stats.
 
‘Freak’ injuries (imho) are another red herring. For example, a guy tears his Achilles slipping while stepping off a curb… in a lot of cases, there was a partial tear waiting to become a full tear…. Guys get injured often and are not diagnosed a) because they hide injury and b) because diagnostics are imperfect and often don’t reveal major injuries until they are really major.

There are SO many variables. I am not sure it’s possible to provide an answer looking at stats.


This is why i said "eyeball test" because I don't think you can look at any stats and draw any type of real conclusion. SO many factors go into injuries, especially the freak ones. RG3's knee got torqued mid air because Ngata hit it at JUST the right angle that created a 'whip' action to tear the ligament. PART of that was RG3 not avoiding a certain type of contact, he was scrambling on 2nd and 19, down 8 pts with 1:45 to go on our side of the field. He was 100% laying it all on the line, and I thikn we can all appreciate his willingness to do so... That said, it was an uncomfortable collision 7 yards from the First Down marker. Had he continued left and not cut back inside, he likely has a similar spot of the ball, but 'lives to play another down.'

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Other factors effect them also that are complete oddities that can't be statisitacally proven without HOURS AND HOURS of research.

Workout habits, how are a certain guys ligaments developed, as well as the mucles pullling / protecting them?
Is he wearing longer spikes? Molded cleats?
Is it raining that day so the grass has more give? is it super dry so there is not anywhere near as much give causing more violent impact on the ligaments
Is it Ngata hitting his knee at 300+ LBs, or is it Emanuel Forbes at half that weight?
Is the player on the brink of dehydration because it's 100 degrees outside and its the 4th quarter, meaning there is more strain on spasming muscles?
To your point Boone , is there already a partial tear in a ligament that NOBODY knows about?

SO many things that are almost impossible to statistically quantify, and the vast majority of these are only surrounding injuries to the knee. Add concussions, shoulder, neck, wrists, fingers, hands, hips, ankles, toes into these and the 'possibilities' are exponential about what could lead to an injury. I almost throw out a comparison of 'stats' regarding injury and look to the eyeball test, and that goes beyond just running QBs. Pocket QBs. Who's able to move within the pocket and similarly 'absorb' hits within the pocket 'cleaner' and less awkward than others? Running backs... some guys just appear to avoid getting hit square, same with WR. Terry has proven he's tough, but you also see instances where he just avoids getting squared up. A lot of the things above are completely out of the control, but seeing a guy who has that struggles to avoid taking the big hit, or getting squared up clean tends to jump off the tape.
 
Here is some recent history worth remembering.



No one outside of Ashburn (and most of the people inside Ashburn) has a clue about who Adam will take.
 
Is that why Spencer Rattler’s poster was hanging in Mayhew’s office 🤣🤣🤣
 

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