BGO Blind Pig: Random Wednesday Edition!

[Boone]

The wife is out of town, lots of NFL goings-on, and as always, tons of questions around what NFL Washington is up to this week...

 

[SkinsOrlando]

Regarding MLS games, especially for newer teams, the crowd is nuts, when Orlando City launched the pure insanity that followed was incredible, once the "newness" wore off and the teams performance wasn't stellar it died down a good bit, hell it was local broadcast tv for every game initially but finding a game now, only apple TV (maybe it's an MLS thing I dunno) but once a team loses local tv markets you know the enthusiasm died down.

As far as Payne goes, I'm a mixed bag on the tag, I don't like the idea of him walking for nothing and I also don't like the idea of a long term mega deal based off one season where he actually performed to expectations. I'm with Neo on this that his behavior about the $$$ irks me, bothers me, makes me think of too many past DL failure signings going back to Stubblefield. If he plays one year on the tag and bolts, well he'll have either proven us wrong that he is worth the truck load of cash he wants or he'll move back to the mean and be a "solid" but not star player where he can move on and we'll enjoy our comp 3rd round pick. If we were offered a 2nd and 4th, I move him yesterday. I don't see us getting a first based off one good season, I think the league has gotten wiser to one year money motivated wonders. I understand Chris's point that we'd be letting what "we know" go for draft picks that we "hope" turn out well but Payne wasn't playing at the level his draft position would dictate until last season either.

New owner - I've reached the point where I don't care if it's announced that an actual business bought the team (ala the Angels and Ducks) years ago as long as it gets done. I have my concerns with all the potential owners some might not be able to infuse as much cash as we'd like, some I think are just dick hole human beings, not excrement like Snyder, just dick holes. I initially thought we wouldn't see a new owner announcement until June, then revised it to some time in March I believe, my gut is now thinking I might've been right the first time.

As always well done, what a different atmosphere without CH hogging all the mic time.


Also, we keep discussing Worth/Wealth for new owners, the real question is cash liquidity - Bezos has stock options to sell so on top of the cash cost he'll have capital gains out the ass to pay (not that he can't). The other contenders we know of also own stakes in sports teams which helps inflate their Worth/Wealth which muddies the waters (a point Neo brought up). Also, part of me thinks the NFL doesn't want an owner who also owns the local paper but then again Dan bought radio stations so what do I know and rumor has it that Bezos has the compost on the chopping block as soon as he gets an offer. I think regardless there's debt borrowing involved in the transaction no matter who owns it.

 

[Chris]

I realize that I am an outlier when it comes to Daron Payne but I just don’t see where he was a pedestrian performer prior to last season.

When comparing Paynes first 4 seasons in Washington to Jon Allen’s statistically, I just don’t see where there is a determinate difference to indicate that.

JA per game (52)

Combined tackles- 3.88
Solo tackles- 2.31
Assists- 1.58
Tackles for loss- .40
QB hits- .87
Sacks- .33

DP per game (58)

Combined tackles- 3.91
Solo tackles- 2.22
Assists- 1.69
Tackles for loss- .38
QB hits- .60
Sacks- .25

Was he extra motivated last year due to being a FA? Sure, who wouldn’t be. Is he Albert Haynesworth reincarnated? I don’t think so. But I could be wrong.

 

[Boone]

Yeah, good stuff, you’re mostly right. Allen is definitely in another class (which if you look at career numbers instead of ‘per game’ data is more obvious). But Payne has very good numbers as well and they’ve been consistently good. Two exceptions though, which probably accounts for the perception he was mailing it in until his contract year… he had sacks prior to this last season, obviously, but 2022 was a breakout year in terms of sacks. And his first 3 seasons he rarely had QB hits, something Allen was consistently feasting on. I think those 2 things, not having the success putting pressure on the QB for a few seasons like Allen was able to do, and then having those 11 sacks last season (more than double his best total previously) and a lot more QB hits contributed to that narrative.

 

[Chris]

Not sure I understand the total vs per game thing. I was trying as best I could to compare apples to apples over the first 4 years and there was a difference in games played.

For the totals:

JA

Combined tackles- 202
Solo- 120
Assists- 82
TFL- 21
Hits- 45
Sacks- 17

DP

JA

Combined tackles- 227
Solo- 129
Assists- 98
TFL- 22
Hits- 35
Sacks- 14.5

Payne’s sack numbers from last season were absolutely a departure from the mean sack wise. I also believe that the move away from Sam Mills affected a change in philosophy or approach that made a difference. I remember the saying that it’s often more the offenses determining who gets sacks.

I believe that Payne being ‘outgoing’ about his desire to get paid is what turns folk off. Make no mistake though, all players want to get paid whether they are public about it or not. But, imo, Payne should not be getting the criticism that he is for his play during the previous 3 seasons.

 

[SkinsOrlando]

One of the things for me is body language, Allen has always had that "gladiator" like passion oozing through the screen, like he's a rabid man beast ready to go. Payne never seemed to display that animalistic, it's go time presence, more of a go through the motions guy. Now is that fair, probably not, some get amped up, some are more calm but if I was counting on someone running over hot coals to get a sack to save the game, it's Allen not Payne.

 

[Boone]

All I meant is that if you look at their career numbers Allen has had significantly better production. He’s also been more consistent but your overall point that Payne has played very well (not just in 2022) stands.

 

[Chris]

One of the things for me is body language, Allen has always had that "gladiator" like passion oozing through the screen, like he's a rabid man beast ready to go. Payne never seemed to display that animalistic, it's go time presence, more of a go through the motions guy. Now is that fair, probably not, some get amped up, some are more calm but if I was counting on someone running over hot coals to get a sack to save the game, it's Allen not Payne.

That’s very fair. They do have distinctly different auras. Allen also provides a level of leadership that is both valuable and noteworthy beyond that of Payne.

I don’t believe that Payne is worth more than Allen on the field or in the locker room but the 2 years of cap increases since Allen’s deal allows it to happen.

 

[Boone]

Well - I suspect we’re going to find out one of the major differences between the two guys - because one of them won’t be here a year from now unless forced to be

 

[Chris]

I think the team will do everything it can to resign Payne. It they make him a real offer and he chooses not to sign it…then fuck him.

If the team had not extended Allen before his contract ran out…would he had done differently?

 

[Neophyte]

I think the point is that he did differently enough from Day One that the team wanted to extend him before his contract ran out.

 

[Chris]

I think the point is that he did differently enough from Day One that the team wanted to extend him before his contract ran out.

Or that Snyder still had some money left then.

(And that wasn’t the question)

 

[SilentThreat]

A lot of my opinion about moving Payne is not because it's Payne... it's because we have Allen. If we didn't have Allen, I'd be all for it. That's not to say it's an argument of Allen vs Payne, more that I have a hard time figuring out in my brain paying BOTH.

 

[Chris]

A lot of my opinion about moving Payne is not because it's Payne... it's because we have Allen. If we didn't have Allen, I'd be all for it. That's not to say it's an argument of Allen vs Payne, more that I have a hard time figuring out in my brain paying BOTH.

That‘s why I think that a years rental in a year this important to the staff makes sense.

Any long-term deal is going to eventually preclude them from keeping either Sweat or Young.

 

[Neophyte]

Which is part of it for me as well, ST. We can only sink so much money into any one position group. We have flexibility right now because we don't have a big QB salary on the books but will that always be the case? I doubt it. If Howell works out at all, we are likely looking at paying him $40 million a season in just a couple of years. Would we regret all the money in the DL at that point?

 

[SilentThreat]

That‘s why I think that a years rental in a year this important to the staff makes sense.

Any long-term deal is going to eventually preclude them from keeping either Sweat or Young.

which is why (imho) i have a hesitation to want to pay him for 2023. instead either spend the money (and whatever return you get on a trade) on a player(s) that will be here long term, or carry over what you can to do so next offseason... unless you think we're a contender and losing Payne would effect those chances. Personally I do not, but that's just me.

 

[Boone]

Well - I hate renting a player at high cost for a year because if he were willing to sign a fair deal, likely he already would have. He walks and we get nada for him. I’d much rather have taken the 2nd round pick offered for him.

 

[Chris]

which is why (imho) i have a hesitation to want to pay him for 2023. instead either spend the money (and whatever return you get on a trade) on a player(s) that will be here long term, or carry over what you can to do so next offseason... unless you think we're a contender and losing Payne would effect those chances. Personally I do not, but that's just me.

I agree because unlike Rivera & Co I have the luxury of being able to think long-term.

For them long-term at the moment is most likely hoping to get to next year.

 

[Chris]

Well - I hate renting a player at high cost for a year because if he were willing to sign a fair deal, likely he already would have. He walks and we get nada for him. I’d much rather have taken the 2nd round pick offered for him.

You‘re assuming he’s gotten a serious offer already. Maybe, maybe not. Who knows?

The team has until July to get a deal done. Hopefully new ownership will have the money to do so in time. Short off another fraudulent bank loan Dan can’t afford to stroke the check for escrow requirements.

 

[SilentThreat]

This is an example of then point I was trying to make. Philly did something similar a few years ago.

Chicago let Robinson walk a year ago, and took Fields. There was a lot of criticism they they were not surrounding him with talent. Now they’re entering an off-season with a good bit of excitement because they liked what they saw with fields despite that lack of talent. They were able to trade away the no1 pick for an absolute haul, and they are going to be able to do whatever they want in free agency as well as the next 2 drafts. Had Fields floundered, they would have their pick of QB, while still being in prime off-season position