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Great discussion, gents. Thank you.
I'm ready to make my prediction, John.
I've have had a couple days to think about it and my gut feeling hasn't changed, so at this point I don't think it will.
To me this one comes down to our defense. As in, I don't think it's good enough for playoff football. Not against an opposing offense with a solid QB, capable RB and playmaking pass catchers, all of which Tampa has. As I indicated on the pod, the combination of a Washington DL that cannot generate pass pressure with just the four downs, and secondary that cannot play effective coverage in space (between the 20's before the red zone provides some cover in compressed space), I can't picture a game in which we get enough stops.
I see a game where Baker isn't pressured into INT's as he is prone to do sometimes with people in his face, but is able to step up in the pocket against our weak interior pass rush and find guys running in space against our tentative coverage. And unlike Dallas, when Tampa does get to the red zone, I don't see them making the kinds of mistakes Dallas did that made them settle for FG's. I think Tampa is able to sustain time-consuming drives that result in TD's. I'm thinking 3 or 4 of them, plus probably a couple FG's. Hard for me to see us holding them under 30. I suspect they'll own TOP.
That last part is key as well. If we can't get Tampa's O off the field, our offensive possessions will be limited and start too many of them deep in our own end. We'll need to make the most of them. It could happen, of course. We didn't rack up 12 wins by accident--the Washington offense is capable of getting shit done. But to do it against a solid Tampa D which CAN generate pressure with it's down linemen, and a secondary that will challenge our sometimes shaky WR corps, it's going to take a very strong performance by the OL. That means both generating some space for our run game AND not letting Tampa get instant pressure up the middle in JD5's face. I know we'll have moments and will score some points. I'm just having a hard time seeing us getting the 30+ I think we're going to need. Of course, it IS the playoffs, so it's possible we'll see one of those crazy, tight LOW-scoring games that sometimes baffle everybody.
But anyway.
Totally accepting the possibility the magic will continue another week. If the 2025 Commandskins (ugh, sorry) have proven anything it's that you better not discount them. Ever. No matter what. But my head makes these predictions, not my heart.
Tampa Bay 30, Washington 26.
