6th Annual BGO Ballers Fantasy Football League

Would you like to look at making any rule changes to the Fantasy Leagues this year?

  • Yes - I'd like to see some rules change.

    Votes: 2 22.2%
  • No - Let's keep it simple and stick with last year's rules.

    Votes: 7 77.8%

  • Total voters
    9
Here's my lineup:

QB Kirk Cousins
RB Giovani Bernard
RB Marshawn Lynch
WR A.J. Green
WR Pierre Garcon
WR Jamison Crowder
TE Jordan Reed
FLEX Eddie Lacy
DEF Seattle Seahawks
 
QB Kirk Cousins
RB Charcandrick West
RB Giovani Bernard
WR Antonio Brown
WR Stefon Diggs
WR DeSean Jackson
TE Jordan Reed
FLEX Pierre Garcon
DEF Washington Redskins


Heavy on the Redskins. Why not?
 
In light of DeAngelo Williams likely not playing, I had to make some changes. Now I have $1 left:

QBKirk Cousins
RBCharcandrick West
RBMarshawn Lynch
WRAntonio Brown
WRMarvin Jones
WRJamison Crowder
TEJordan Reed
FLEXGiovani Bernard
DEF
Seattle Seahawks
 
Boone, I will say you have more faith in Lacy than I do :p Good luck to you both.
 
You guys who have Lynch in your lineups need to swap him out. He has been ruled out for the game, or so reports are saying.
 
More changes to be made with that one. I am probably really overthinking this, but what the hell:

QBKirk Cousins
RBSpencer Ware
RBEddie Lacy
WRAntonio Brown
WRMarvin Jones
WRDeSean Jackson
TEJordan Reed
FLEXGiovani Bernard
DEF
Seattle Seahawks
 
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KC defense!

Yahoo Contest.jpg
 
I knew I should have used them...gah.
 
Looks like I advance - placing in the top 20,000 (18,710). Not planning on that San Francisco trip just yet, lol.
 
Thanks. How did you do? Boone?

Got the email earlier that the next round is open. It's going to be tough. Probably don't go beyond round two - only 20,000 left playing and many of them are likely expert types. I barely made it to round two, but this format is interesting. I prefer the other format with friends I know.
 
The luck was not with me. Remember, expert means nothing, as has been proven by the stats for these things going forward. You want to play the numbers game; it has nothing to do with football knowledge. Approach it as gambling, as that is what it is: all about playing the odds.
 
The luck was not with me. Remember, expert means nothing, as has been proven by the stats for these things going forward. You want to play the numbers game; it has nothing to do with football knowledge. Approach it as gambling, as that is what it is: all about playing the odds.

That actually isn't true. Luck is the element that it shares with gambling but I have found there is a good deal of football knowledge involved. For example, if you were playing the odds this last week you went with Houston's defense. There were at home and had been playing lights out for weeks. KC has a solid offense but no real game changers. In the end, the Houston defense didn't have a bad day as those things go either but it is tough to play great defense when your own offense is giving the game away.

The skill in daily fantasy is in writing the correct narrative for the game. Will one team get up big early and if so, how will that effect things like their run game? Or the opposition's passing game? If one team specializes in taking away the other's best weapon who steps up when/if that happens? Figuring that sort of stuff out is where the money is.

Can it be reduces to just numbers? Yes, but the guys who can do that are really so few as to nearly not make a difference.

The other thing to remember that the regular season is often about matchups, like going with the QB playing New Orleans this week. The playoffs are less about matchups and more about consistency and touches. Who is going to get the workload. For example this next week I will be putting Gronk in my lineups even though he is going to be playing against one of the best defenses against the TE position this season. Why? He will see the targets one way or another.

Just my two cents. I'm admittedly not blowing the field away on Fanduel but I am beginning to understand the principles better. It is really NOT like playing in a season long league at all.
 
That actually isn't true. Luck is the element that it shares with gambling but I have found there is a good deal of football knowledge involved. For example, if you were playing the odds this last week you went with Houston's defense. There were at home and had been playing lights out for weeks. KC has a solid offense but no real game changers. In the end, the Houston defense didn't have a bad day as those things go either but it is tough to play great defense when your own offense is giving the game away.

The skill in daily fantasy is in writing the correct narrative for the game. Will one team get up big early and if so, how will that effect things like their run game? Or the opposition's passing game? If one team specializes in taking away the other's best weapon who steps up when/if that happens? Figuring that sort of stuff out is where the money is.

Can it be reduces to just numbers? Yes, but the guys who can do that are really so few as to nearly not make a difference.

The other thing to remember that the regular season is often about matchups, like going with the QB playing New Orleans this week. The playoffs are less about matchups and more about consistency and touches. Who is going to get the workload. For example this next week I will be putting Gronk in my lineups even though he is going to be playing against one of the best defenses against the TE position this season. Why? He will see the targets one way or another.

Just my two cents. I'm admittedly not blowing the field away on Fanduel but I am beginning to understand the principles better. It is really NOT like playing in a season long league at all.

Having knowledge can help, but there is a reason the guys that are actually cleaning up on it aren't football fans. They are the guys with the algorithms, the guys with the stats, who are playing it as a numbers game. Also why the guys working at DK and FD were able to game it, by knowing what other people picked.

You are right though, not about playing a season long league. That is about drafting and hitting the waivers.
 
I broke 100 but didn't do well enough to continue.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Having knowledge can help, but there is a reason the guys that are actually cleaning up on it aren't football fans. They are the guys with the algorithms, the guys with the stats, who are playing it as a numbers game. Also why the guys working at DK and FD were able to game it, by knowing what other people picked.

You are right though, not about playing a season long league. That is about drafting and hitting the waivers.

Depends on your definition of "cleaning up" too. Most of those guys aren't taking home top prizes, at least not week after week. They have a large stake and they are entering a lot of games. I read a number of articles about this year before getting into it and while they are playing in Tournaments like you guys were in this last weekend (and making money in them), the "experts" who are making lots of money at this are playing in the higher stakes 50/50 matches, often called Cash Games, where you just have to finish in the top half of the field to double your money. And by "lots of games" I mean they enter in a 100 or more a weekend and may put down as much as $10K on a single game where they just have to beat half the field to double their money.

The Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournaments, or GPP's, have bigger pay outs for sure but are much more susceptible to the odd guy that no one saw coming for the weekend blowing up and having the game of his life. Those things are hard to predict even with the best algorithms because there is no history to use. The guy who won Fanduel's million dollar pot the first or second weekend was a first time player who won by picking Travis Benjamin to go off because his Dad, a Brown's fan, had been talking about the kid in the pre-season and he needed a cheap guy. A few week's later, a newish player won the big one on Fanduel by picking totally against conventional thought and going with two Steeler receivers (two guys from the same team almost never post huge days together).

Don't get me wrong. There are a lot of guys doing exactly what you talk about and just playing the numbers. I just don't think they are winning quite the same way you think they are winning. I just don't think the stats and algorithms help all the much with the big single payouts.
 
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That's correct. The big single payouts, like any gambling, takes luck :D

Better odds than the lottery though :D
 
Plan to set my lineup today or by tomorrow morning. We'll see what happens.
 
Best of luck to you sir. May you get to the end and win all the moneys.
 
Thanks. I'll post my draft sometime later today. Feel free to scrutinize it and make any recommendations.
 

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