2025 Washington Commanders- All Things Defense

[method man]

As we go into next year, if I look at the existing roster and and the defensive players at the top of the draft, it feels like a 3-4 or 3-3-5 with a zone heavy scheme would fit well.

Payne, Kinlaw and Goldman all have experience in the 3-4 scheme. Newton could be a backup 3-4 DE even though he's just a tad small for it. It wouldn't be hard to grab another 2-3 quality guys in FA and Day 2/Day 3 of the draft to fill out the room. Guys like Teair Tart, Roy Lopez and Sebastian Joseph Day.

When I look at the draft, guys like Arvell Reese and David Bailey fit a 3-4 scheme better and that scheme better allows them to use their versatility outside of pass rushing (both guys, for example, are good coverage players). Dorance played some 3-4 OLB in DQ's hybrid scheme in Dallas (he did mainly rush the passer).

If you run a zone heavy scheme, you have your starting outside CBs in Amos and Sainristil. Cheaper and easier to find a solid slot CB than a solid man CB. In fact, it's a decent bet a 3rd round rookie could start as one.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

I'm convinced a lot of this is coaching, the players can't be this bad. I know it won't happen but I'd like them to bring in a new DC with an entirely different scheme. The lack of a pass rush can't be the excuse for leaving players wide open every single week, it's pitch and catch time when teams play the Commanders. And you can't switch out an entire defense in one off season. So if they run it back with mostly the same players with the same coaching staff and scheme why would I expect much to change? A rookie pass rusher and a few FA signing won't be enough to fix a defense this bad.

 

[grhqofb5]

With all the recent negativity going around, I thought I’d share something positive from our not too distant past. This is from the 2020 Steelers game, our six play goal line stand, which really energized us through the rest of the season I think. Playoffs with a 7-9 record. Steelers were undefeated at 11-0. FYI, you’ll notice that the Steelers ran or passed the ball to the right side on all six plays to avoid Chase Young. He was truly a beast at that point, but Montez Sweat was no slouch. Those two along with Jon Allen and Payne could still be here if fate hadn’t t intervened. You’ll have to click on the link, I guess YouTube doesn’t let you post NFL videos directly anymore.

 

[Chris]

Positivity? Positivity? There ain’t no damn room for positivity round here. 🤣

Now back to the regularly scheduled programming…fire everyone…

 

[Commander Wraith]

I'm convinced a lot of this is coaching, the players can't be this bad. I know it won't happen but I'd like them to bring in a new DC with an entirely different scheme. The lack of a pass rush can't be the excuse for leaving players wide open every single week, it's pitch and catch time when teams play the Commanders. And you can't switch out an entire defense in one off season. So if they run it back with mostly the same players with the same coaching staff and scheme why would I expect much to change? A rookie pass rusher and a few FA signing won't be enough to fix a defense this bad.

Totally agree.

I will say that I think (but could easily be wrong) the scheme is less of the problem than 1) we practiced a man scheme all offseason, so we’re behind the 8-ball in all of the nuance of zone coverages, and 2) personnel issues have caused a trickle down effect.

The way I see it -
When we played man early on, we didn’t have DEs that could set the edge in the run game, maybe especially after losing Wise. Combine that with our DTs 1-gapping, and there’s a lot of pressure on the LBs in terms of stopping the run. That means it’s harder for them to help in coverage. If you also have to blitz one or both LBs, that problem is compounded (we’d get occasional TFLs, but also get gashed a lot). And of course your backers are then less help in coverage.
If you bring up a safety to help vs the run and/or short zones (because your backers need help), then your corners in man coverage have less help over the top, so they play more conservatively. So offenses just run when we have 6 in the box, pass when we have 7. Once Armstrong went down, our pass rush dipped, exacerbating our problems.

So you see Wagner in man coverage against good receiving backs, Sainristil looking lost in man coverage, our safeties rarely in position to play the ball, Lattimore getting abused, and offenses running the ball down our throats. The only exception was when we played bad olines (like the Giants and the banged up Chargers).

Playing zone has mitigated some of the worst problems (see previous paragraph), but most of the fundamental issues due to personnel deficiencies (especially at DE) still apply.



Overall, there’s a bright side - just adding some quality at DE could make a significant difference. Yes, we need to also add a quality linebacker if Wagner isn’t re-signed (perhaps MaGee can take over, but I wouldn’t bank on it) and a corner to pair with Amos/Sainristil (as well as adding depth), and we could use an upgrade at safety… but those first two should be easy enough and we should be able to at least get by at safety. It’s major improvement at the DE position that is most crucial, regardless of what scheme we wind up playing. And IMO (and to your point) that can’t just come in the form of a draft pick who will be a bit of a question no matter how high they’re picked.

Sidenote: one thing I don’t get… if we thought Wise would give us a bigger body to set the edge while still providing a little pass rush juice… why didn’t we have a backup in that same mold? I know there was some talk of Kinlaw playing there. I know plenty were upset we didn’t sign Clowney, and I tend to agree that he might have been a really good fit for that role.

 

[grhqofb5]

Positivity? Positivity? There ain’t no damn room for positivity round here. 🤣

Now back to the regularly scheduled programming…fire everyone…

View attachment 13633

Well, in my defense, it was a clip from the 2020 season, which ended up being a huge disappointment overall considering the fate of Chase Young. So maybe it’s not really positivity, just a snapshot of what could or should have been here now. And again, if we had a really good defense, we wouldn’t have had the number to pick. Then again, if we had a decent defense for the last 5 years with Chase Young terrorizing opposing quarterbacks we wouldn’t have had the #2 pick in 2024, wouldn’t have Jayden Daniels, and who knows where the offense would be.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

Totally agree.

I will say that I think (but could easily be wrong) the scheme is less of the problem than 1) we practiced a man scheme all offseason, so we’re behind the 8-ball in all of the nuance of zone coverages, and 2) personnel issues have caused a trickle down effect.

The way I see it -
When we played man early on, we didn’t have DEs that could set the edge in the run game, maybe especially after losing Wise. Combine that with our DTs 1-gapping, and there’s a lot of pressure on the LBs in terms of stopping the run. That means it’s harder for them to help in coverage. If you also have to blitz one or both LBs, that problem is compounded (we’d get occasional TFLs, but also get gashed a lot). And of course your backers are then less help in coverage.
If you bring up a safety to help vs the run and/or short zones (because your backers need help), then your corners in man coverage have less help over the top, so they play more conservatively. So offenses just run when we have 6 in the box, pass when we have 7. Once Armstrong went down, our pass rush dipped, exacerbating our problems.

So you see Wagner in man coverage against good receiving backs, Sainristil looking lost in man coverage, our safeties rarely in position to play the ball, Lattimore getting abused, and offenses running the ball down our throats. The only exception was when we played bad olines (like the Giants and the banged up Chargers).

Playing zone has mitigated some of the worst problems (see previous paragraph), but most of the fundamental issues due to personnel deficiencies (especially at DE) still apply.



Overall, there’s a bright side - just adding some quality at DE could make a significant difference. Yes, we need to also add a quality linebacker if Wagner isn’t re-signed (perhaps MaGee can take over, but I wouldn’t bank on it) and a corner to pair with Amos/Sainristil (as well as adding depth), and we could use an upgrade at safety… but those first two should be easy enough and we should be able to at least get by at safety. It’s major improvement at the DE position that is most crucial, regardless of what scheme we wind up playing. And IMO (and to your point) that can’t just come in the form of a draft pick who will be a bit of a question no matter how high they’re picked.

Sidenote: one thing I don’t get… if we thought Wise would give us a bigger body to set the edge while still providing a little pass rush juice… why didn’t we have a backup in that same mold? I know there was some talk of Kinlaw playing there. I know plenty were upset we didn’t sign Clowney, and I tend to agree that he might have been a really good fit for that role.

Sainristill got beaten a lot on Sunday and they were in zone. I'm getting very concerned about his play.

 

[Riggo44]

Positivity? Positivity? There ain’t no damn room for positivity round here. 🤣

Now back to the regularly scheduled programming…fire everyone…

View attachment 13633

Don't forget to make up shit and pass it off as fact!

 

[Chris]

Don't forget to make up shit and pass it off as fact!

Things have reached the ridiculous level now. Coaches called idiots, injuries labeled as excuses, and a strategy to trade the QB so that the organization is not considered a joke.

 

[Riggo44]

Things have reached the ridiculous level now. Coaches called idiots, injuries labeled as excuses, and a strategy to trade the QB so that the organization is not considered a joke.

Source: The voices in my head!

 

[Riggo44]

a strategy to trade the QB so that the organization is not considered a joke.

He's RG4, better to get out from under him so we can start the rebuild. Get a new GM too. And sell the team.

 

[philibusters]

Totally agree.

I will say that I think (but could easily be wrong) the scheme is less of the problem than 1) we practiced a man scheme all offseason, so we’re behind the 8-ball in all of the nuance of zone coverages, and 2) personnel issues have caused a trickle down effect.

Playing zone has mitigated some of the worst problems (see previous paragraph), but most of the fundamental issues due to personnel deficiencies (especially at DE) still apply.

Sidenote: one thing I don’t get… if we thought Wise would give us a bigger body to set the edge while still providing a little pass rush juice… why didn’t we have a backup in that same mold? I know there was some talk of Kinlaw playing there. I know plenty were upset we didn’t sign Clowney, and I tend to agree that he might have been a really good fit for that role.

With Joe Whitt I do think we had some scheme issues, but personnel was probably the bigger issue. With Quinn, I don't feel like scheme is a big issue, we just lack the personnel

I feel like Javontae Jean Baptiste was teh back up in teh Deatrich Wise mold (edge setter who is a pocket collapser in pass rush) and he was lost two games after Wise was lost for the season. So you lost the starter for the season week 2 and the backup in week 4. Of the initial 5 DE's, Dorrence Armstrong was the balanced one who could set an edge and get to the passer, he was lost in week 7. The only two that remain are guys I saw as pass rush specialists in Jacob Martin and Von Miller. Martin has actually been a tad better than I expected, but my expectations for him were pretty low.

 

[Commander Wraith]

With Joe Whitt I do think we had some scheme issues, but personnel was probably the bigger issue. With Quinn, I don't feel like scheme is a big issue, we just lack the personnel

I feel like Javontae Jean Baptiste was teh back up in teh Deatrich Wise mold (edge setter who is a pocket collapser in pass rush) and he was lost two games after Wise was lost for the season. So you lost the starter for the season week 2 and the backup in week 4. Of the initial 5 DE's, Dorrence Armstrong was the balanced one who could set an edge and get to the passer, he was lost in week 7. The only two that remain are guys I saw as pass rush specialists in Jacob Martin and Von Miller. Martin has actually been a tad better than I expected, but my expectations for him were pretty low.

Maybe so, though Jean Baptiste was like 240lbs coming out vs I want to say like 270 for Wise… not that weight is everything.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

Sainristill got beaten a lot on Sunday and they were in zone. I'm getting very concerned about his play.

Well, as usual - how do we divorce player from coaching? This is where you need to be able to trust your HC's judgement.

Sorry to the DQ apologists but since he waited 16 months and watched a defense mostly struggle through that time... the trust isn't really great right now. I don't think it should be. That is a major red flag because you can't evaluate well.

Now, maybe AP and others - seeing things up close - have plenty of trust and know that some small issues may need fixing but there is still great potential here. Just from my/our vantage point, the defensive coaching and the evaluation of the staff on that side (and thus player evaluation too) is highly problematic. That's a big issue.

 

[RedWolf]

The last solid defense that I can remember was under Gregg Williams

 

[philibusters]

Maybe so, though Jean Baptiste was like 240lbs coming out vs I want to say like 270 for Wise… not that weight is everything.

Intereseting. I didn't know Jean-Baptiste weight was that low at the combine. Still I have always thought of him as edge setter. Even the scouting report coming out of college was not a ton of juice as a pass rusher but an active run defender. He is listed at 260 now. Don' know what his actual weight is, but it is interesting that he weighed in so low at the combine.

 

[Faithful Fan]

The last solid defense that I can remember was under Gregg Williams

Rivera had some good defenses. We were 2nd in yards allowed in 2020 (4th in points) and 3rd in yards allowed in 2022 (7th in points). That was partly Turner’s ball control offense playing keep away, but largely all those first round picks on the defensive line.

Other than that, you’re right, Gregg Williams had a top ten defense in 3 out of his 4 seasons, and we’ve been somewhere between mediocre and bad ever since.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

Well, as usual - how do we divorce player from coaching? This is where you need to be able to trust your HC's judgement.

Sorry to the DQ apologists but since he waited 16 months and watched a defense mostly struggle through that time... the trust isn't really great right now. I don't think it should be. That is a major red flag because you can't evaluate well.

Now, maybe AP and others - seeing things up close - have plenty of trust and know that some small issues may need fixing but there is still great potential here. Just from my/our vantage point, the defensive coaching and the evaluation of the staff on that side (and thus player evaluation too) is highly problematic. That's a big issue.

I feel the same way as you do on the coaching. However my post was directed at the player. Sainristill struggled in the slot, they moved him outside. He struggles in man and they played zone on Sunday. And he still got beat, in every scheme they design he is getting beaten. This guy was supposed to be a keeper, a building block. Now even he is a question mark.

 

[Commander Wraith]

I feel the same way as you do on the coaching. However my post was directed at the player. Sainristill struggled in the slot, they moved him outside. He struggles in man and they played zone on Sunday. And he still got beat, in every scheme they design he is getting beaten. This guy was supposed to be a keeper, a building block. Now even he is a question mark.

Not going to disagree with you as I think it’s a valid concern, but I also think it’s worth considering that most everyone on defense looked terrible vs Minnesota.

On a related note, I have a hunch this past offseason of practices, with this secondary vs our banged up receiving group and our oline (with Coleman and Conerly, and without Cosmi) vs our dline gave a false impression to the staff, including AP.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

I feel the same way as you do on the coaching. However my post was directed at the player. Sainristill struggled in the slot, they moved him outside. He struggles in man and they played zone on Sunday. And he still got beat, in every scheme they design he is getting beaten. This guy was supposed to be a keeper, a building block. Now even he is a question mark.

There are players, especially young guys, who really take to their coaching - *good* and *bad.*

So when you see serious regression in performance, sometimes it's coaching.

I think overall Sainristil hasn't looked so bad on the outside this year, so he's less of a concern to me. When I look at the DBs as a whole, I am highly concerned - and again, this would point more to the DB coaching. Sainristil has looked bad in the slot - but on the outside, he was able to do more at least.

I do agree with you that I have question marks on him though. I always have, frankly - I didn't like that trade down. They actually did the opposite of what I would have done in consecutive years:
- Say yes to trade down in 2024 (Would have said no, taken Dejean - they either didn't like something about DeJean, some here have said an injury history - or they really liked the idea of Sainristil + Sinnott v. Dejean - or a combination of the two; I don't get it, based on how Sinnott has/hasn't been used)
- Say no to trade down in 2025. I like Connerly but I don't understand why he would be considered a "must" get at that spot when he hadn't slipped in general; if you were targeting Connerly, for me, you roll the dice on him still being available and if he's not, you go to your next guys; it's not clear to me why they put him on a pedestal). I really like Connerly.

I mean, at the end of the day, you have to go with your convictions as a GM, so I have 0 problems with any of it. I can see the logic. My question now is based on usage of Sinnott, and based on Connerly being a "must get" - my question would be how much is AP making the decisions and how much is he collaborating?

I think AP comes from the John Lynch / Kyle S training, and that is a highly collaborative process where Kyle S has a lot of input and guidance into the draft in my understanding. That isn't for every coach. Right now, if I had to guess, I would say AP is taking way, way too much input from coaches who don't have a great handle on making these types of decisions. We talk about "BPA" early and often; that is not what we have seen here in these first two drafts - and I think any reasonable approach involving analytics would make that clear. So my conclusion here, right now, is AP is taking a lot of input from his coaches - which can be good, but when you review yourself and do some self-critique.. I hope he will adapt that strategy if so.

I don't think Howie takes much input, or put it another way, I think he makes it clear where the buck stops. I think he trusts his own personal process above all, and I think that is in general the better way to go (not many HCs have a good enough handle on the complexities of the draft, and that should be totally fine; give them the players and let them work their magic on the shaping).

I have thought this many times this year: how different would this year have been if we had picked Jihaad Campbell in the 1st round instead of Connerly? Hard to know. A young, fast, talented LB was a bit of a need for us though, and he was easily arguable as BPA above Connerly at our pick, and that is not revisionist history. It was fairly common consensus at the time.