I mean we have no idea who will be good or bad, outside of the Chiefs who if Mahomes is healthy is a safe bet to win 11+ games.
Everyone would have pegged us as an easy win this year too.
Sure but generally speaking I don't see a lot of these teams taking huge steps back.
All division games are knock down drag out fights. None are easy.
Kansas City should still be good and I won't bet against those devil magic users until their debt to their demonic pact makers comes due.
Detroit should still be good. They may take a step back but equally could be even better, given how banged up they are. Minimum 10 win team unless like Goff/Gibbs/Montgomery/Amen Ra all tear ACLs together.
Chargers are kinda like us, holes on the roster, work in progress. But Harbaugh has them 10-6 in year one, and it's very likely this is the worst chargers team they'll have for the next 5 years or so.
Minnesota like Detroit should still be good. The only thing that could derail that is their QB situation. If they pay Darnold a huge amount to keep him, do they sacrifice elsewhere? Flip side, if they let him go, is JJ ready? If they go JJ and try and put the best team they can around him, but JJ falls flat, then they may be in trouble, but even then they're probably a minimum 7-8 win team, and most likely have the all around talent to scrape 10 wins without elite QB play.
Green Bay is Green Bay. They're seemingly always somewhere between good and great. Love doesn't feel like prime Rodgers but even if they have a down year they'll still be dangerous. Worst case scenario is they struggle and end up like a 7-10 team but are still very much a trap game.
So that's 11 games minimum that are probably against either division opponents or good teams.
The rest could be up or down I suppose, but I'm just gonna assume they're up and it's a tough fight. Even Vegas.
Chicago has a Commanders 2023 feel, so they are one Dan Quinn culture change away from potentially being good. Denver feels like the Texans to me, so I kinda expect them to be good but not elite. Seattle and Miami are all about the QBs. Does Geno's age catch up with him (cracks already showing with his 17-15 TD/INTs) and does Tua's brain hold up (poor guy). TB and Atlanta probably good teams. Mayfield figured his stuff out, tho the team overall feels a bit boom bust. Atlanta will be very interesting with Penix. Vegas probably still has problems, even if they win the Sanders sweepstakes bc I just assume Deion is gonna turn wherever he lands into a circus for a couple years, but that doesn't mean they won't be dangerous.
I would not be surprised if we ended up with 16 games against either the division or winning teams.