2021 Roster Updates

[Win4us]

Hell nah to Trent

 

[MisterPinstripe]

Do we go for a vet QB in the offseason to try to really ride this defense? If there is a top 15 QB available do you spend the money or just hope to somehow hit in the draft?

 

[Kel Varnsen]

Do we go for a vet QB in the offseason to try to really ride this defense? If there is a top 15 QB available do you spend the money or just hope to somehow hit in the draft?

I think it depends on what Smith does. If he stays and doesn't retire, you can't really justify spending money on a veteran QB. You have Smith and most likely Allen (if he's healed). The third can be a guy you draft or Montez since they seem to like him. They can also draft a QB in the mid to late rounds they think they can develop.

If Smith does retire, I'd like to see them sign a vet QB. Perhaps Stafford if he is cut by the Lions. This won't be popular, but even someone like Winston. You could even take a shot on Darnold if you think you can get something out of him. Maybe you could sign Darnold on the cheap even if Smith doesn't retire.

No matter which option they go with, I'd still like to see them sign a young or youngish QB they think they can develop. I don't think Allen is that guy to be honest. Haskins clearly isn't. So it would be nice to have some hope that someone on the roster could be that guy.

 

[MisterPinstripe]

I think it depends on what Smith does. If he stays and doesn't retire, you can't really justify spending money on a veteran QB. You have Smith and most likely Allen (if he's healed). The third can be a guy you draft or Montez since they seem to like him. They can also draft a QB in the mid to late rounds they think they can develop.

If Smith does retire, I'd like to see them sign a vet QB. Perhaps Stafford if he is cut by the Lions. This won't be popular, but even someone like Winston. You could even take a shot on Darnold if you think you can get something out of him. Maybe you could sign Darnold on the cheap even if Smith doesn't retire.

No matter which option they go with, I'd still like to see them sign a young or youngish QB they think they can develop. I don't think Allen is that guy to be honest. Haskins clearly isn't. So it would be nice to have some hope that someone on the roster could be that guy.

I've been thinking along those lines as well. Stafford I think could be great for us potentially, Winston would scare me. If the Jets move on from Darnold I think he is going to have suites, just from being a top prospect and the Jets are horrible. I wouldn't mind giving him a shot, maybe he just needs a change of scenery.

 

[SilentThreat]

Do we go for a vet QB in the offseason to try to really ride this defense? If there is a top 15 QB available do you spend the money or just hope to somehow hit in the draft?

I think it depends on what Smith does. If he stays and doesn't retire, you can't really justify spending money on a veteran QB. You have Smith and most likely Allen (if he's healed). The third can be a guy you draft or Montez since they seem to like him. They can also draft a QB in the mid to late rounds they think they can develop.

If Smith does retire, I'd like to see them sign a vet QB. Perhaps Stafford if he is cut by the Lions. This won't be popular, but even someone like Winston. You could even take a shot on Darnold if you think you can get something out of him. Maybe you could sign Darnold on the cheap even if Smith doesn't retire.

No matter which option they go with, I'd still like to see them sign a young or youngish QB they think they can develop. I don't think Allen is that guy to be honest. Haskins clearly isn't. So it would be nice to have some hope that someone on the roster could be that guy.

I think it goes further than justifying spending the money... i don't know that we can afford to.

Alex is currently under contract through 2022 with a cap hit of $22.4m in 2021 and $26.4m in 2022.... these numbers make it basically an impossibility to have him AND a veteran QB that's 'top 15.' This would mean he would HAVE to retire for it to even become an option. That said, even if he retires, we would continue to carry a $4.3m cap hit each of the next 2 seasons from his pro-rated signing bonus money. We could elect to go after Alex and get him to pay that back but who knows. (Full disclosure, sportrac has his bonus at $5.4m but OTC has it at $4.8m so the numbers may not be PERFECT).

If we CUT Alex with a post June 1 designation the cap hit for Alex goes from $23.3m to $8.6m...
We still have Dwayne under contract as well and cutting him saves us $0.... so we either trade him or keep him.

If we were to CUT Alex, his 2021 cap number is $8.6m.
Dwayne Haskins cap number for 2021 is $3.9m
Kyle Allen is currently not under contract.
Steven Montez is not currently under contract

So before we even TALK to a vet QB we would only have Haskins under contract and already have $12.5mil dedicated to the position.

Matt Stafford's current contract is an average of $27m per year, with him being due to make $34m in 2021... so to try and figure out what number he is looking for, I would guess $27m avg per year would be his floor... you can manipulate when / how he gets paid with signing bonuses and making it a back heavy deal with the expectation that the cap is going to go up FAST after 2021.

So Stafford signed a 5yr / $135m deal last time with a $50m signing bonus. That's roughly 35% of the deal being a bonus he received in year 1, prorated across the deal ($15.5m in year 1). He then only had a $1m salary in year 1, but since he got a $50m bonus he didn't really care because he took home $51m in the first year of the contract... it just didn't count that way toward the cap.

SO. Stafford signs a 3 year / $90m deal with Washington... $33m bonus (same ratio of bonus / total contract as last contract) with $1m in salary then $15m bonus toward year 1... $16m cap hit in 2021.

So if Stafford does not demand a pay raise.. we've now got $28.5m dedicated to the QB position with Stafford and Haskins the only two players under contract. This is manageable... but we likely need to add at least 1 or 2 guys so lets say another $3m.. $31.5m at this point. WITH Alex's savings, this COULD work if Stafford were to agree to sign that type of a deal. The problem you run into is that the back end of this Stafford hypothetical is going to HURT. He would be due $30+ mil over the other 2 years of the deal. He's 32 so I don't know how much further over a 3 year deal I would want to go... and I know our current QB is 100...

This is where the debate comes into finding a QB in THIS draft that can sit for a year behind who we have on the roster. If we take a QB in the 2nd half of the first round, you have 'control' of that QB for 5 years and they make a TOTAL of ~ $12m.... It's even better if you hit with a guy like Desmond Ridder or Ian Boak later in the draft... If you swing on Ridder and miss in the 3rd... he's due a TOTAL of around $12mil... so you can go through 2021 with Alex, groom Ridder, and if Ridder is a bust, you still have a LOT of money in 2022 to pay a free agent...

 

[Kel Varnsen]

SilentThreat your knowledge on the cap and the breakdown is second to none. I know there are always challenges to bringing in a player and letting another go. I certainly do no know the salary cap situation or salaries for anyone, so I appreciate you breaking it down. I think the best case scenario is Smith doesn’t retire and he is the Vet. Whether they re-sign Allen, some other young cheap guy, somehow keep Haskins, or draft someone else, I think it could fit nicely in with what Alex brings and his salary.

If he retires, it will get complicated. Stafford is the most talented “likely” available QB. If he is cut by Detroit, I expect teams such as Chicago, New England, and possibly Indy (If Rivers retires) to be looking for a veteran QB. There may be others as well. For the sake of this discussion, we can assume Jacksonville drafts a QB. The Jets are a no brainer, but it is the Jets. Anyway, I do expect Stafford to get multiple offers if he’s available. The cap is likely to go down next year and his salary will be adjusted as a result. But I still think he will be able to pick and choose where he wants to go and how much he gets paid. Which likely will price the Team out of the market. I don’t know of any connection to this current leadership structure that might give the edge, but it’s nice to think about the possibility.

 

[SilentThreat]

SilentThreat your knowledge on the cap and the breakdown is second to none. I know there are always challenges to bringing in a player and letting another go. I certainly do no know the salary cap situation or salaries for anyone, so I appreciate you breaking it down. I think the best case scenario is Smith doesn’t retire and he is the Vet. Whether they re-sign Allen, some other young cheap guy, somehow keep Haskins, or draft someone else, I think it could fit nicely in with what Alex brings and his salary.

If he retires, it will get complicated. Stafford is the most talented “likely” available QB. If he is cut by Detroit, I expect teams such as Chicago, New England, and possibly Indy (If Rivers retires) to be looking for a veteran QB. There may be others as well. For the sake of this discussion, we can assume Jacksonville drafts a QB. The Jets are a no brainer, but it is the Jets. Anyway, I do expect Stafford to get multiple offers if he’s available. The cap is likely to go down next year and his salary will be adjusted as a result. But I still think he will be able to pick and choose where he wants to go and how much he gets paid. Which likely will price the Team out of the market. I don’t know of any connection to this current leadership structure that might give the edge, but it’s nice to think about the possibility.

I appreciate the kind words man, thank you. Full disclosure, I did not have all this memorized lol, I had to look it all up, but it's a conversation I have researched in the past.


The x-factor here if Alex Smith retires is Kyle Allen. With THIS defense, I think Allen can win some games and be a very VERY inexpensive bridge to a potential young QB. I keep coming back to Desmond Ridder because I think he's a hidden gem and if he falls to the 3rd round, he could be the steal of the draft.

I personally see a scenario where 6 QBs COULD go in the first round with the 5th year option of a 1st round pick being invaluable to have for a QB on a rookie deal.

Lawrence
Fields
Wilson
Lance
Jones
Trask

I see it personally as these teams in serious QB need

Jets (because Gase likely gets fired and new HC would be STUPID to pass on Lawrence)
Jags
Bears

I then see a 2nd tier of teams that if the right guy is there they take him

49ers
Lions
Patriots
Colts
Cowboys
Panthers
Falcons
Vikings

That 2nd tier is going to determine the whole scope of the first round of the draft. Lions, Vikings, and Falcons could find themselves desperate to find cap space. Cowboys may not be able to afford tagging Dak again, and my look to take a QB early even if they do. 49ers may not be sold on Jimmy G, Pats aren't used to picking top half of the round and far from set at QB, and Panthers have Bridgewater but he's to 2 years left and the new HC likely want's 'his guy.'

I don't think the market for QBs is going to be big because:

There aren't a lot of teams with a ton of money to spend. This is the 2021 Cap numbers if indeed the cap goes DOWN to $176m. It COULD stay the same at $198m but I simply do not see it going up with the lack of revenue.... so for the sake of conversation we assume it goes down from $198m to $176m. Looking at the teams with money to spend, and a 'top 15' QB likely getting $25m per year, the teams with the most money are also the ones that are picking near the top of the draft... Jags and Jets. The pinch on the cap could force some of those 2nd tier teams i referenced to take a QB in the first round, when normally you would not expect it.

 

[SilentThreat]

I find myself getting more interested in Curtis Samuel if we go WR in Free Agency.

 

[Elephant]

Stafford will be headed to New England if he leaves Detroit.

 

[Canadian Hog]

In my personal opinion, we have a defense that can win a championship in 2 years provided we solidify the LB group with an impact draftee/signing and continue to add and cement our defensive secondary. Under this premise, I believe everything we do in free agency and the draft this upcoming offseason has to be with this target in mind. If we achieve things sooner in regards to team success, that is gravy.

At QB, we have failed repeatedly with finding our guy forever. The one thing we have never really committed to is just letting a guy sit and develop and learn how to be a pro. With our defense and their promise, I think you can get another year out of Smith, win your share of games, and more importantly, he serves as the perfect tutor that can provide major dividends beyond his years here if we find the right player to just study under him. Bottom line - invest heavily in finding your championship QB in the top 3 rounds of the draft, but accept that he is not playing in 2021.

At WR, I tend to agree with what Boone eluded to. The cupboard is not bare with what we already have here and Kelvin Harmon's return in and of itself can be a big lift for the offense. Do not break the bank paying #1 receiver money to the likes of a Golladay, Allen Robinson, Schuster type. That would be a mistake. We have a superstar at receiver already, but need a complementary, productive vet that still provides a threat and gives the offense some added juice. Samuel could be an option, I am also thinking maybe that middle tier of receivers like T.Y., Marvin Jones, etc., could maybe be had...something along those lines - these are just examples of the type of player I would target in the free agency crop.

Offensive line - we have been pleasantly surprised by the interior of Wes, Roullier, and Scherff. If there is one thing under the scenario I present that can't happen in 2021, it is that we cannot afford any sort of production dropoff on the o line. I think your first order of business is to pay Brandon and I think Rivera does it. Even if you overpay, you do it, though many fans will hate it. Ron talks really highly of him and the fact is, he is a pros pro. Rivera believes you win with guys that are built like Scherff from a professional approach standpoint and you cannot have too many of those guys in your locker room. He's exactly the type of player Rivera wants to build around from a culture standpoint. If the draft presents opportunities to continue to build our depth and improve competition at guard and tackle, do not blink for a second at picking guys on the o line high. Cornelius Lucas has been a nice find, hopefully Charles can contribute next year as well, but regardless, a strong offensive line propels the offense as well as a sexy receiver or running back sometimes. Keep the bodies coming there and solidify the talent pool.

One more thing...do not go into 2021 thinking you are set at TE. Get another weapon that can catch to complement the great story Logan Thomas has been. A dynamic duo pairing at TE would be pretty cool to see on our team. Not to mention it might actually mean Jeremy Sprinkle packs his bags.

 

[SirClintonPortis]

Might as well bump this.

What are the chances that Taylor gets poached by another team running the Air Coryell? That performance must have gotten a few eyes locked in, possibly even our rival New York Giants.

 

[SilentThreat]

He was on the radio this morning and said here is his first choice... of course he's not going to say any different, but he's a 'restricted' free agent, so we have first shot at matching any offer he gets.

 

[SilentThreat]

Here's what Rivera says to it

 

[SilentThreat]

Shaun Dion-Hamilton released

 

[SilentThreat]

 

[Bulldog]

Trent Williams is done as an elite OT. He's clearly on the downside and any attempt to bring him back here would erode what has been built this year.

Williams thought he was going to a contender but he found out SF has a LOT of injured players, some older players and a quarterback situation that isn't any more settled than the one in DC. There aren't many who think Garroppolo is a franchise quarterback after the past 2 plus years starting.

Rivera would never bring Williams back IMO.

Snyder better watch himself. Jerry Jones almost had the Cowboys back to contender status and then he went out on his ow and signed Terrell Owens when Bill Parcells was on vacation.

Parcells quit after that season and the Cowboys have won 1 playoff game in the past 15 years.

 

[SilentThreat]

Sounds like Kerrigan expects to play elsewhere.... for the record I would love to have him back, but it would be a limited role, one that he appears to not be content with anymore

monumental sports network

www.nbcsports.com

 

[Bulldog]

I have seen nothing at the quarterback position on the field in 2020 that precludes this team from making a trade or selecting a qb in Round 1 or 2 to develop.

That said, all three of the Allen-Smith-Heinicke triumvirate look as if they can be more than capable backup quarterbacks and spot to intermediate starters if there are injuries.

I think Smith realizes that his body is not going to let him play 16 games anymore. Like Jurgensen in 1974, he's a specialist. A guy that can come in and provide energy and a lift for a period of time but is limited physically by age and the condition of his body over 15 seasons.

 

[SilentThreat]

I still feel that Rivera opts to go veteran at QB. Cap dropping is going to force the hand of some teams and they may end up selling low because they're desperate.

There is a path though that we draft a QB and Allen / Heinicke battle it out for the starting job as a bridge QB.

 

[SirClintonPortis]

I think with the durability concerns of Heinicke and the likeliness Smith is gone, Rivera will kick the tires on an established vet he knows if they're willing to come here.

Phillip Rivers and Cam both have ties to him, but I doubt Rivers will come here nearing the end of his career. Cam also looks totally washed up.