I don't know folks.
FIVE years is a long run in the NFL these days for a coach that doesn't show that his program is already on an upward trajectory.
This isn't the 1970's or 80's where there was no free agency and teams were able to keep all of their good players away from their rivals.
The current day NFL is about turnover as you see the Vikings, Steelers and Titans miss the playoffs this year.
Gone are the days when a Tom Landry got 6 or 7 years to take his program to its heights and continue on a 20 plus year run.
In fact if you go back and look at how soon the best NFL coaches win, many even back in the day arrived by Year 5:
Joe Gibbs - second year
Bill Walsh - third year
Jimmy Johnson - fourth year (with 11-5 by Year 3)
Bill Parcells - third year
Among coaches in the 2000's guys like Doug Peterson and Mike Tomlin won early on with their new teams.
Pete Carroll, coming back after being at USC, had the Seahawks back in the playoffs fairly quickly and won the SB two years later.
We are in much the same situation here now that we were in with Norv after almost 7 years at the helm.
Norv was a knowledgeable guy who seemed nice enough off the field, etc.
But like Gruden he never seemed to have an answer for players that didn't perform or who had disciplinary problems.
A number of those players were allowed to stick around the team and it only made it that much more difficult to climb the mountain.
In fact one of the qualities I see in Belichick, Gibbs, Parcells, etc. is that they were very good at QUICKLY weeding out guys that couldn't play or didn't want to play.
There were no 'fellow' travelers that were locker room lawyers complaining about the coaches and organization.
These guys were quickly traded or released.
The other part of that equation for these coaches was running a team that was a meritocracy.
If a guy can play he gets on the field.
If a guy is a former
#1 or
#2 pick but is coming along very slowly and is way behind his peers these coaches and teams admit the mistake and move on.
If a guy is released and goes somewhere else and is a solid NFL player by age 28 or 29, good for him.
But Belichick isn't going to wait 4 or 5 years for a guy to START showing he belongs.