The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[Commander Wraith]

The Cowboys I could see. The Jets is a little confusing as 1) they’re already in the top 10, and 2) I don’t really get giving up assets when you don’t even have a qb in place. In their shoes, I’d rather trade back for 2027 ammo in the hopes that helps land a qb next year.

 

[skinsinparadise]

The top 30 visits are meaningful for this team in recent years. I've talked about Brazzell. I'd guess 2nd rounder - sort of an Alec Pierce idea. One dimensional player IMO -- but its an intriguing dimension that its tracking the deep ball, and has real speed. Feels like a wildcard, don't love him, don't hate him, I can see it working.

But I post this here to play off of method man's point the other day. That is, its not a wild if they zone in on WRs that they'd have a group of them in a similar boat so a trade down would factor that. The people who cover this team love to echo Quinn-Peters that they addressed needs in FA so they can go BPA. While, I am fine with BPA approach, its my go to approach, this is a team with a big need at WR.

I know someone yesterday shot down Keim's thought that they ideally would want to trade down but not far -- as just him offering his own opinion otherwise its just wild spitballing from him. If Dj is hearing this team wants to trade down and Breer, too. These guys aren't all clowns with no sources. Doesn't mean they will or not, you need to get the offer. If I had to guess by combining these narratives, I'd go with Keim that they'd want to trade down a litte but not big.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I'm interested to see if there is truth to this or if it just seems like a captain obvious guess due to missing the 2nd and 4th rounders

I'd think they would listen to offers butt not be looking for a trade

At this point, its hard for me to recall who said what, am listening to a zillion podcasts. But I've gotten the vibe for weeks that this team would like to trade down. But lol I'll take the arrows about trusting Keim the most on this as to they'd want to trade down a few spots but not big.

Teams talk to other teams in advance about being interested in trading up or down depending on what happens -- especially as the draft gets closer per Matt Miller's point.

The best person for me to listen to in general McShay, almost every podcast he gets into what he's hearing about every top 10 pick from his sources with teams. And yeah as he pointed out, you got to be good at diciphering the difference between real thoughts and them trying to manipulate him. And as Breer talked about, its about reading between the lines.

If I had to take a stab at this, this is a guess. My guess is this FO would please and displease the people here on the approach.

A. Pleasing us. My gut they don't trade down if Love lands at 7.

B. Displeasing us. I think they'd trade down if they could if anyone else does

But my gut is they don't get an offer or at least a compelling offer, so nothing happens.

 

[skinsinparadise]

The Cowboys I could see. The Jets is a little confusing as 1) they’re already in the top 10, and 2) I don’t really get giving up assets when you don’t even have a qb in place. In their shoes, I’d rather trade back for 2027 ammo in the hopes that helps land a qb next year.

They already got a ton of 2027 ammo.

 

[DWinzit]

At this point, its hard for me to recall who said what, am listening to a zillion podcasts. But I've gotten the vibe for weeks that this team would like to trade down. But lol I'll take the arrows about trusting Keim the most on this as to they'd want to trade down a few spots but not big.

Teams talk to other teams in advance about being interested in trading up or down depending on what happens -- especially as the draft gets closer per Matt Miller's point.

The best person for me to listen to in general McShay, almost every podcast he gets into what he's hearing about every top 10 pick from his sources with teams. And yeah as he pointed out, you got to be good at diciphering the difference between real thoughts and them trying to manipulate him. And as Breer talked about, its about reading between the lines.

If I had to take a stab at this, this is a guess. My guess is this FO would please and displease the people here on the approach.

A. Pleasing us. My gut they don't trade down if Love lands at 7.

B. Displeasing us. I think they'd trade down if they could if anyone else does

But my gut is they don't get an offer or at least a compelling offer, so nothing happens.

If they could slightly move back and they are still guaranteed to get one of the players they have in the same grade bracket, why not? I do find it hard to see them doing so if Love is there and I'm willing to better there are a couple defenders in that group (Bailey, Reese, Styles). In the scenario give, 2 OL going by 6 would leave them in a better feel situattion for a move back.

It is hard to not wish we had more selections on day 2 and early day 3

Oh, and I am kind of with you o Brazzell. He doesn't move the needle for me compared to may others

 

[Dlts20]

Us dropping to 16 just doesn't work for me unless they include a future 1st. There's just no chance at a blue chip player. There may not even be a chance at any of the top players on our list. Down to nine or even eleven? Maybe? Down to the middle of the draft? It better be a crazy haul. Repeating myself, A Mike Ditka/Hershel Walker-trade style haul.

You have to remember that all picks aren't the same. The Jets 2nd is almost like a late 1st because they are picking so early in the 2nd round

 

[skinsinparadise]

Us dropping to 16 just doesn't work for me unless they include a future 1st. There's just no chance at a blue chip player. There may not even be a chance at any of the top players on our list. Down to nine or even eleven? Maybe? Down to the middle of the draft? It better be a crazy haul. Repeating myself, A Mike Ditka/Hershel Walker-trade style haul.

I personally wouldn't like it. I'd be fine depending on who is there if its the top 10 picks.

16 is likely hitting that next tier. I just need a simulator for what its worth and if that has any accuracy, the dudes I would like in that range:

Thienemann or Lemon. McCoy dropped there too but I doubt in real life he does.

I traded down to 10, and Delane was still there.

 

[Dlts20]

I think that a lot of teams feel like there isn't much difference between the guys at 6-16 so I could definitely see us trading down for more picks, especially high picks in a round compared to late. Like I said, the Jets 2nd rounder at 33 is completely different from the the Rams 2nd rounder at 61

 

[skinsinparadise]

If they could slightly move back and they are still guaranteed to get one of the players they have in the same grade bracket, why not? I do find it hard to see them doing so if Love is there and I'm willing to better there are a couple defenders in that group (Bailey, Reese, Styles). In the scenario give, 2 OL going by 6 would leave them in a better feel situattion for a move back.

It is hard to not wish we had more selections on day 2 and early day 3

Yeah rumors, etc get more interesting as the draft gets closer, some end up false, some end up dead on correct per Matt Miller's point.

But lets say Todd McShay is right and Downs falls out of the top 10 from what he's hearing. If they can trade down to 9 or 10 and still end up getting Downs or Delane and pull a pick in the process -- I am good with it as long as its not them bypassing Love.

The reason why i don't think this team would trade off the pick if Love is there. Keim has hinted he gets the sense this team digs him. Also a bunch of national draftniks keep saying they are hearing the furthest Love drops is 7. Can they all be wrong. Sure. But my gut is they aren't wrong.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I think that a lot of teams feel like there isn't much difference between the guys at 6-16 so I could definitely see us trading down for more picks, especially high picks in a round compared to late. Like I said, the Jets 2nd rounder at 33 is completely different from the the Rams 2nd rounder at 61

I don't think its 6-16. More like 6-10. i just did a mock simulator by the time I got to 11, all the players we talk about were gone.

 

[KDawg]

I think that a lot of teams feel like there isn't much difference between the guys at 6-16 so I could definitely see us trading down for more picks, especially high picks in a round compared to late. Like I said, the Jets 2nd rounder at 33 is completely different from the the Rams 2nd rounder at 61

Not much difference? Are we assuming Tate, Love, Bailey, Bain, Downs, Styles, Reese, Mendoza, Delane, McCoy are all gone in the first six picks or some significant wart comes out on them?

 

[KDawg]

I don't think its 6-16. More like 6-10. i just did a mock simulator by the time I got to 11, all the players we talk about were gone.

Thank you.

 

[Dlts20]

Not much difference? Are we assuming Tate, Love, Bailey, Bain, Downs, Styles, Reese, Mendoza, Delane, McCoy are all gone in the first six picks or some significant wart comes out on them?

Most likely the big 3 lineman will also go. That's 13 right there without Lemon, Tyson, and there is always going to be some surprises. Maybe even Simpson

 

[KDawg]

Most likely the big 3 lineman will also go. That's 13 right there without Lemon, Tyson, and there is always going to be some surprises. Maybe even Simpson

Not all of those guys are equal.

So, we want to pass on the best talent for 2nd level talent? I don’t get it.

MAYBE, MAYBE, as we see the draft board actually play out and trade back - that could make sense.

If we trade back ahead of the draft… ya.

I’ll probably check out on the season at that point.

 

[Commander Wraith]

They already got a ton of 2027 ammo.

Ah, my bad. Makes a lot more sense then.

 

[Dlts20]

Not all of those guys are equal.

So, we want to pass on the best talent for 2nd level talent? I don’t get it.

MAYBE, MAYBE, as we see the draft board actually play out and trade back - that could make sense.

If we trade back ahead of the draft… ya.

I’ll probably check out on the season at that point.

I think that it will definitely be on draft night. My point is that if you look at a million mocks, they have guys truly rated differently. I was just looking at rankings the other day from all the top guys like Kiper, McShay, etc, and they all had different people. Even at WR some had Tate, some had Lemon, and some had Tyson as #1. Now you may look at it and say that those other 2 aren't equal to Tate but others feel different. That's my only point

 

[Dlts20]

Ah, my bad. Makes a lot more sense then.

Not really. We still don't have a 2nd or a 4th so idk where he's getting that from

 

[skinsinparadise]

The one spot where there is some variance is WR between Tate, Lemon, Tyson -- though becoming less of this over time, with Tate seems to have a peg up. And rumors continue to build that Tyson falls to the late first.

But no debate about is it Styles versus name that LB.

No debate over Downs versus the next safety

No debate about the top 3 edge over the next group

No debate about Love versus the next RB group

No debate about the top 2 corners versus the next crop.

So agree if the whole draft is simply a microcasm of basically the Tate versus Lemon debate then I see it. But the WR debate is very exclusive to that spot.

 

[skinsinparadise]

No way I am trading down with Dallas to give them Sonny Styles

 

[burgold]

You have to remember that all picks aren't the same. The Jets 2nd is almost like a late 1st because they are picking so early in the 2nd round

On the other hand, the 30th pick in the first round could be viewed as a high 2nd rounder this year. This year, I think the early second rounder isn't like a late first rounder because there isn't the same degree of quality in the first round.