The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

I just went back on Cooper. The amount of exposure and success on the outside was lost by me. I think that mainly occurred because there are a number of good later first round to mid second round receivers that I have ignored to a degree because I don't see us having a shot at them. You are on the mark with Cooper being a good fit and in my eyes, much better than Lemon.

I'm still high on Boston and have moved off of Tyson like many others.

For Z I'm not convinced both Dyami and Van make the roster.

I am also still holding out hope for Burks to prove himself reliable to Jayden. Jayden needs to have more trust in receivers than other QBs. He has a built in trust with Terry and had one with Dyami which I'd imagine will bounce right back into.

One hope I have is whoever else they bring in, the are good with routes so Jayden knows they will be where they are supposed to be. It sounds like that was desperately lacking last year.

If they don't make another move or wait for the third round or later, not only do I see Dyami and Van Jefferson making the roster but they can start factoring injuries.

When Quinn talked about WR by committee and how it would work my mind raced specifically to those 2 WRs -- Dyami a vertical threat, Van Jefferson more horizontal, etc.

The thing with Burks is he's struggled in his career with injuries and seperation skills. We were so starved for talent at the time, that Burks felt like a godsend. But aside from that Beckham like catch, he didn't really impact any games.
 
If they don't make another move or wait for the third round or later, not only do I see Dyami and Van Jefferson making the roster but they can start factoring injuries.

When Quinn talked about WR by committee and how it would work my mind raced specifically to those 2 WRs -- Dyami a vertical threat, Van Jefferson more horizontal, etc.

The thing with Burks is he's struggled in his career with injuries and seperation skills. We were so starved for talent at the time, that Burks felt like a godsend. But aside from that Beckham like catch, he didn't really impact any games.
As mentioned prior, I am with you on concerns the WR is not being viewed as a code red like it deserves.

I believe Dyami will be a roster fixture this year with Terry. All the others are up in the air depending on how far they go with FA and thee draft and what type of players are brought in. And yes, I see Dyami being that much of a sure thing....not that great of a look. Weak sauce in the current WR group ye somehow, the group is probably better than last year.

If Van makes the squad and they don't have that distinct slot guy, I could see him sharing the position some of the time with Lane, Luke and or whoever else makes the roster.
 

Matt Miller's Final Big Board

1. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 212 | Grade: 98
Comp: Reggie Bush

Love is an elite modern running back with true three-down skills. He has home run speed, with multiple 90-plus-yard runs in his college career. He's also a skilled receiver, hauling in 64 catches and six touchdown receptions in his three seasons. But Love isn't just a speed back. He can deliver violent hits at the point of attack and has the contact balance to bounce off tacklers and stay upright. With 4.36 speed and sweet open-field moves, Love is the closest thing to Reggie Bush as a prospect since he entered the NFL in 2006.

2. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 236 | Grade: 95
Comp: Joe Burrow

The top quarterback in the class, Mendoza is a prototypical pocket passer in the Burrow/Matt Ryan mold. He has good arm strength and quickly processes what he sees when scanning the field. After showing flashes at Cal, Mendoza dominated at Indiana last season, throwing 41 touchdown passes and six interceptions while rushing for six more scores. He has the frame to pick up short yardage on runs or scramble when the pocket breaks down, but Mendoza is at his best carving up defenses in the pocket. His timing, rhythm and field vision helped him complete 72% of his passes in 2025 and have him cemented atop the QB1 race.


3. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 206 | Grade: 95
Comp: Budda Baker

Regarded as a top pro prospect since his freshman season at Alabama in 2023, Downs has developed into a special safety. He has the closing speed and range to patrol the secondary in coverage and the power to play in the box as a nickel linebacker or at the Star position. His physicality, speed and ability to take away top offensive players made him critical to the Buckeyes' elite defense. Along with being similar to Baker, Downs has similarities to Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu when it comes to range and explosiveness.


4. Arvell Reese, LB/Edge, Ohio State
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 241 | Grade: 94
Comp: Abdul Carter

Reese wasn't on the NFL draft radar before last season but shot up the board as one of the nation's most productive and promising players. A hybrid defender who plays linebacker and edge rusher, there are obvious comparisons to Micah Parsons and Carter. Reese has the length, elite burst and power to be dangerous off the edge, as evidenced by his 6.5 sacks last season in a part-time edge role. His flexibility and athletic tools at a premium position could make Reese the first defender off the board.


5. Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 244 | Grade: 94
Comp: Fred Warner

Styles fits the mold of the long, fast versatile linebacker prospect who is regularly drafted in the first round. His speed, length, power in his hands and range jump off the tape. And as a former safety, Styles knows how to turn and move in coverage, too. Though Arvell Reese got much of the Ohio State defensive attention last season, Styles produced 83 tackles and one interception and has shown pass-rush ability (six sacks in 2024). An elite combine performance -- including a 43½-inch vertical jump and 4.46-second 40-yard dash -- has put him in the top-five conversation.


6. David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 250 | Grade: 93
Comp: Nik Bonitto

Bailey was the nation's most impactful defensive transfer, finishing last season with 14.5 sacks (tied for first in the FBS) after arriving from Stanford. He also had 71 pressures (tied for second in the FBS). Bailey's first step causes problems for offensive tackles, and he counters well with leverage and strong hands. He is also relentless in pursuing the ball, which helped him rack up 23 tackles for loss last season. Bailey's 4.5 40-yard dash and 33¾-inch arm length at the combine could tempt the Jets at No. 2.

7. Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 329 | Grade: 92
Comp: Darnell Wright

The top offensive lineman on my board, Mauigoa was a three-year starter at right tackle who played like a blue-chipper. He comes off the line of scrimmage with elite force and burst in the run game. His previous tape showed issues with inconsistent punch timing, but Mauigoa improved his technique last season, allowing only two sacks and six pressures. Some scouts see Mauigoa as a guard in the NFL due to his stocky frame, but his tape last season is that of a high-end tackle prospect with a grade similar to Wright, a top-10 pick by the Bears in 2023.


8. Makai Lemon, WR, USC
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 192 | Grade: 92
Comp: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Lemon's scouting report won't contain platitudes about size, length or great track speed. Instead, he stands out due to his production (79 catches for 1,156 yards and 11 touchdowns last season), polish in the slot and ability to create space and accumulate targets across the middle. He is agile and tough, knows how to vary his routes and wins with tempo over pure speed -- very similar to former Trojan St. Brown. Some teams will see him as a scheme-specific fit, but St. Brown and Jaxon Smith-Njigba give Lemon a template for NFL success.


9. Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 192 | Grade: 92
Comp: Cooper Kupp

Another year, another top-10 wide receiver prospect for the Buckeyes. Tate is a big receiver with elite contested-catch ability down the field, along with strong hands and body control that allow him to consistently win on 50-50 passes. Tate's penchant for sitting in space and picking up tough yards makes him a pro-ready WR1. He might not have elite top-end speed, but Tate's ability to box out defenders and create separation on routes makes him special.


10. Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 188 | Grade: 92
Comp: Christian Gonzalez

McCoy didn't play in 2025 because of a torn ACL suffered while training in January, but scouts are sufficiently enamored with his traits and previous film to consider him a first-round talent. He has ideal size, explosive hips and click-and-close ability that reminds me of Derek Stingley Jr.'s tape at LSU. Given that McCoy hasn't played in over a year, there will be questions about his recovery timeline (which increased after he didn't work out at the combine), but if he were graded purely on his 2024 tape, he'd be in the running to be the first corner drafted and a top-10 pick.
 
I wonder how Terry, Noah Brown, Dyami, and OZ compare to Terry, Burks, Dyami, and Lane/Luke?

As unfortunate as it sounds, the 2024 group might at this point be better? Unless the draft picks make a big jump AP has some work to do.
 
I wonder how Terry, Noah Brown, Dyami, and OZ compare to Terry, Burks, Dyami, and Lane/Luke?

As unfortunate as it sounds, the 2024 group might at this point be better? Unless the draft picks make a big jump AP has some work to do.

2024 group was better. Oz and Crowder were decent in the slot. Noah was healthy enough to play some games and Dyami not a bad backup.

Also Ertz was sneaky good as a red zone weapon. Terry 2 years younger then likely better than the 31 year old version
 
As I've been saying am neutral on Bain. But if they get him outside the top 10 in a trade down, I can see it much easier that mitigates the risk some.


Yates: We wanted bold, so how about this: Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. will go outside the top 12 picks. Bain is an exceptional player, and there is no shortage of teams with a pass rush need to pick in the first 12 spots. But he is going to be an outlier in the first round, as the first edge rusher with sub-31-inch arms to get picked there. There are some scouts who are skeptical of a team taking an outlier super early. The teams that could take a chance are the Saints, Chiefs and Bengals (Nos. 8-10, respectively), but there's a chance he's still there in the teens.


Miller: Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson will take a draft-day tumble outside the top 20 picks. His hamstring issues are concerning for teams, causing him to miss three straight games in November. He also had eight drops in 2024. Teams I've talked to like Tyson's juice as a route runner and his production, but the injuries and drops are causing him to slide behind Carnell Tate (Ohio State) and Makai Lemon (USC) on the receiver board. It's even possible Omar Cooper Jr. (Indiana) gets picked before him.

What are you hearing on the Jets' preferences at No. 2?​

Yates: In canvassing people around the NFL, the overwhelming majority of them have defaulted to Texas Tech's David Bailey and Ohio State's Arvell Reese as the pick. Each player would provide the Jets with a young, building-block pass rusher. Bailey is regarded as the more refined, pro-ready rusher, while Reese is considered the higher-ceiling prospect with better fluidity and overall athleticism. But ... the Jets have given no indication on the pick.

Miller: I'll echo what Field has heard, although I did hear that the Jets really like Tate and would consider him if the team was better set at quarterback. As of today, it sounds like Bailey has more fans in the building. The Jets understand that an impact player is needed right now for coach Aaron Glenn's defense. Bailey's 14.5 sacks in 2025 and speed around the edge make for an ideal fit for a team moving to more of a 3-4 defense.

Miller: I don't feel higher than 75% confidence in any pick outside of No. 1 right now, but if the Titans find themselves at No. 4 with Reese and Bailey off the board, I would expect Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love to be the selection. And he might be the pick regardless of who is available based on how active the Titans were in adding pass rushers this offseason. Love will go somewhere in the top five, and I think Tennessee has eyes on pairing him with quarterback Cam Ward.

....Yates: I'll offer two in back-to-back spots, as the Titans and Giants offer a couple of similar dynamics (Nos. 4 and 5, respectively). Each team has a second-year quarterback and ambitions to make a leap this year, but neither has a dominant running back that takes drafting Love off the table. He is my No. 2 overall prospect and perhaps the best bet to become a Pro Bowler early in his career, but would either team eschew needs at other more premium positions to take a running back? Where Love goes in the top 10 is one of the biggest questions people around the league have wondered about for months.

Sadly, this sounds right to me, Love will be gone by the time we pick.
 
I wonder how Terry, Noah Brown, Dyami, and OZ compare to Terry, Burks, Dyami, and Lane/Luke?

As unfortunate as it sounds, the 2024 group might at this point be better? Unless the draft picks make a big jump AP has some work to do.

Maybe the 2024 group was better, but the 2026 group has more upside. Some of those young guns could break out. I’m rooting for them.
 
Hypothetical. Let's assume we're hell bent on drafting offensive skill players here.

Love is off the board. Our selection comes up and we've got 2 options.
  • Draft Tate
or...
  • Trade back, gain a 2nd rounder, and we think...
    • 50% sure Lemon will be there
    • 70% sure Tyson will be there
    • 90% sure Cooper will be there
What do we do? Pick Tate or trade back?
 
Hypothetical. Let's assume we're hell bent on drafting offensive skill players here.

Love is off the board. Our selection comes up and we've got 2 options.
  • Draft Tate
or...
  • Trade back, gain a 2nd rounder, and we think...
    • 50% sure Lemon will be there
    • 70% sure Tyson will be there
    • 90% sure Cooper will be there
What do we do? Pick Tate or trade back?
Another possibility under that trade back (assuming they could get a 1st and 2nd for 7):
Depending on how far back the 2nd rounder was they could go WR in the 2nd, OT forced to take WR in the 1st.

If they love Tate I'd be okay going with him which will probably be what occurs
 
Hypothetical. Let's assume we're hell bent on drafting offensive skill players here.

Love is off the board. Our selection comes up and we've got 2 options.
  • Draft Tate
or...
  • Trade back, gain a 2nd rounder, and we think...
    • 50% sure Lemon will be there
    • 70% sure Tyson will be there
    • 90% sure Cooper will be there
What do we do? Pick Tate or trade back?
No brainer to trade back imo
 
Hypothetical. Let's assume we're hell bent on drafting offensive skill players here.

Love is off the board. Our selection comes up and we've got 2 options.
  • Draft Tate
or...
  • Trade back, gain a 2nd rounder, and we think...
    • 50% sure Lemon will be there
    • 70% sure Tyson will be there
    • 90% sure Cooper will be there
What do we do? Pick Tate or trade back?
Yes exactly, this was being discussed as a rumor that the Commanders are leaning option 2. As usual, could be a smokescreen. I think they are doing their due diligence. If you have a few picks that you like about the same and the traded spots are good enough- then you do the deal.

As usual, there is some math mixed with simple subjective analysis. Going to be pretty interesting. For those who would be disappointed by a trade down, you get the consolation in this scenario of a 2nd rounder. I heard some people positing on a 2027 1st rounder being given, and what the Comms would do there.

Always interesting to see it unfold.
 
Hypothetical. Let's assume we're hell bent on drafting offensive skill players here.

Love is off the board. Our selection comes up and we've got 2 options.
  • Draft Tate
or...
  • Trade back, gain a 2nd rounder, and we think...
    • 50% sure Lemon will be there
    • 70% sure Tyson will be there
    • 90% sure Cooper will be there
What do we do? Pick Tate or trade back?

100% trade back... also I'd be good with a larger trade back and target Conception. We should be able to get more than a 2nd to move make to the range he's projected.
 
The thing with Burks is he's struggled in his career with injuries and seperation skills. We were so starved for talent at the time, that Burks felt like a godsend. But aside from that Beckham like catch, he doesn't really impact any games.
I can't believe the love Burks is getting from the fans over one catch. He had the entire year to prove himself and he didn't do squat.
 
Styles worries me more than any of the other potential picks at 7.

I keep hearing from media that highlight he can play all over the field as a rover and doesn’t need to project to a specific position.

The last athletic freak I heard that about was LaVar Arrington.

In the end Arrington became a pass rush specialist and was rather limited in what he could do and where you could play him.

I also hear a lot about Styles being a playmaker in the passing game but he only had ONE sack last year.

Styles is not a Love or Downs or Bailey that projects clearly to an NFL position and all of these guys seem more likely to make am immediate impact as starters.
 
I can't believe the love Burks is getting from the fans over one catch. He had the entire year to prove himself and he didn't do squat.
To be fair he wasn’t here for the entire year and took several weeks to learn the system and get on the field.

He also never really played much with QB1 here.

Meanwhile what has McCaffrey done in TWO years other than return kicks?

We can get that from 7th rounders and UDFAs.
 
I can't believe the love Burks is getting from the fans over one catch. He had the entire year to prove himself and he didn't do squat.
For me it has little to do with one catch, it's about the potential that he oozes. He came across last year as though he had bought the team and was working hard with this shot.
 
To be fair he wasn’t here for the entire year and took several weeks to learn the system and get on the field.

He also never really played much with QB1 here.

Meanwhile what has McCaffrey done in TWO years other than return kicks?

We can get that from 7th rounders and UDFAs.

I thought McCaffrey was showing some progress. He had 203 yards in 8 games, which over a 17 game season would come out to 431 yards if he kept up the pace. I thought they injury last year for him was a bummer because he was starting to show something.
 
I thought McCaffrey was showing some progress. He had 203 yards in 8 games, which over a 17 game season would come out to 431 yards if he kept up the pace. I thought they injury last year for him was a bummer because he was starting to show something.
Agreed, it felt he was on the brink of earning a starting position
 
If they don't make another move or wait for the third round or later, not only do I see Dyami and Van Jefferson making the roster but they can start factoring injuries.

When Quinn talked about WR by committee and how it would work my mind raced specifically to those 2 WRs -- Dyami a vertical threat, Van Jefferson more horizontal, etc.

The thing with Burks is he's struggled in his career with injuries and seperation skills. We were so starved for talent at the time, that Burks felt like a godsend. But aside from that Beckham like catch, he didn't really impact any games.
I think you're right, but we also don't have anybody really good to play the slot at the moment. MAYBE McCaffery or Lane steps up.

It's one of the reason I really want Tate at 7. That essentially "solves" the problem. You have a guy who should be able to start day 1 outside accross from McLaurin, and you have plenty of guys you can move inside with speed. Also, Chig is an inside receiver playing from the TE spot, and will help stretch the field vertically in the middle.

If they draft Tate, and they really wanted to solidify the position, they could also re-sign Deebo, and then you have your slot guy also, with Lane as the burner/Deebo backup, McCaffery as backup slot, and Dyami, Jefferson and Burke as backups outside.

I wouldn't be opposed to that at all. I was higher on Deebo last year than most, I think he did great given the circumstances.

I just don't think Tate is going to be there. And then they're going to have to shuffle things and they're going to be light in the WR room.
 
Hypothetical. Let's assume we're hell bent on drafting offensive skill players here.

Love is off the board. Our selection comes up and we've got 2 options.
  • Draft Tate
or...
  • Trade back, gain a 2nd rounder, and we think...
    • 50% sure Lemon will be there
    • 70% sure Tyson will be there
    • 90% sure Cooper will be there
What do we do? Pick Tate or trade back?
Pick Tate.

That's easy. He's the best WR in the class, plays outside, and solves an immediate need while being the best player on the board in that scenario.

Lemon plays slot. We just drafted 2 slot guys. McCaffery could maybe play outside, but I've heard he's better in the slot. At least for now. Lane is a slot guy.
Tyson is always hurt. He couldn't even work out this year because of a Hammy he suffered last year
Cooper is at best the 4th WR in the draft. You're trading down and diminishing value.

Stick and pick the best WR you can pick. Don't be tempted with 2 lesser prospects.
 

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