The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

I fully buy into that. I've only got 2 first round grades on WR's and if Tyson's medicals push him into Day 2, then that leaves just Tate.

For example, as a weapon in the passing game there is an entire world of difference between Love and Lemon. If I'm just viewing prospects as receiving options for Jayden. I've still got Love over Lemon. Some of these runningbacks are so much more valuable than the "RB isn't a premium position label". You get outsized talent for a fraction of the cost. That's hyper efficient cap usage.

Let me give some examples of seasons and we can judge their impact to the offense as a whole.

  1. 116 receptions, 1005 yards, 4 TD's, Success Rate 59.9%
  2. 102 receptions, 924 yards, 7 TD's, Success Rate 57.4%
  3. 95 receptions, 1042 yards, 3 TD's, Success Rate 44%
  4. 85 receptions, 1013 yards, 4 TD's, Success Rate 68.6%
  5. 64 receptions, 910 yards, 6 TD's, Success rate 58%
  6. 79 receptions, 820 yards, 4 TD's, Success Rate 56.3%
  7. 74 receptions, 1017 yards, 7 TD's, Success Rate 54%
  8. 58 receptions, 847 yards, 5 TD's, Success Rate 53.7%
  9. 111 receptions, 1165 yards, 3 TD's, Success Rate 58.4%
  10. 71 receptions, 1117 yards, 6 TD's, Success Rate 49.2%


Answer Key:
  1. RB - McCaffrey (2019)
  2. RB - McCaffrey (2025)
  3. WR - Garrett Wilson (2023)
  4. WR - Stefon Diggs (2025)
  5. WR - Jaylen Waddle (2025)
  6. RB - Bijan Robinson (2025)
  7. WR - Courtland Sutton (2025)
  8. WR - Parker Washington (2025)
  9. WR - Wes Welker (2008)
  10. WR - Nico Collins (2025)
Let's pretend all those RB seasons cost a premium cap hit for the RB position, and all those WR seasons cost a premium cap hit of WR2. You'd take the RB seasons. They cost less, with comparable production, but then add in all the rushing yards, and touchdowns, and you get someone who vastly outperforms the dollar amount with on-field production.

I get the concept of premium WR2 > premium RB ... unless the RB is a weapon in the passing game.

Love as a prospect, profiles as an RB who can hit that. Who you can dial up a lot of plays in the passing game for and give him 70 catches on 100 targets. If his success rate on catches is north of 50%, then you have an offense that's really hard to stop. Not all RB prospects who profile as a great pass game weapon wind up as such. Saquon Barkley did, but he never quite had that success in the NFL. Bijan Robinson did not quite, but then he developed it. McCaffrey did, and he became dominant at it. We should not underestimate Love's potential to be a real chain mover on passes thrown to him.

I borrowed someone's account and read the scouts takes on the WRs, Tyson was a mixed bag, some dug him, some didn't, irrespective of the injuries. 2 liked him as a player a lot. 2 didn't care for him as a player. 1 was sort of on the fence. Ranked as the third best Wr with them. The ones who didn't like him didn't think he had special triats, thought he was inconsistent, didn't think he was tough, not good with contested catches -- the ones who didn't care for him, really didn't care for him. I am not as high on Tyson as some here. But I am higher on him than the scouts that are negative on him. But judging by his report, he's maybe the most polairizing on the top WRs in this group and the injuries isn't the only plot line for the polarization.

Granted lol you almost never got a player without a critic in these reviews among the scouts especally strangely among the top players, you get the stronger opinions, so I take more from their aggregate ranking then going through finding a player with universal love because almost impossible to find universal love.

Denzel Boston for example oddly probably had the least criticism but ranked 4th. Antonio Williams, one of my favs in this group, really got no negativity, yet ranked 12th.

Tate was majorly positive but not perfect -- 3 loved him, thought he'd be great. the other 2 thought good not great and were not blown away by him.

With Lemon, it seemed to be he's good, not great, and not a first round talent.
 
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I fully buy into that. I've only got 2 first round grades on WR's and if Tyson's medicals push him into Day 2, then that leaves just Tate.

For example, as a weapon in the passing game there is an entire world of difference between Love and Lemon. If I'm just viewing prospects as receiving options for Jayden. I've still got Love over Lemon. Some of these runningbacks are so much more valuable than the "RB isn't a premium position label". You get outsized talent for a fraction of the cost. That's hyper efficient cap usage.

Let me give some examples of seasons and we can judge their impact to the offense as a whole.

  1. 116 receptions, 1005 yards, 4 TD's, Success Rate 59.9%
  2. 102 receptions, 924 yards, 7 TD's, Success Rate 57.4%
  3. 95 receptions, 1042 yards, 3 TD's, Success Rate 44%
  4. 85 receptions, 1013 yards, 4 TD's, Success Rate 68.6%
  5. 64 receptions, 910 yards, 6 TD's, Success rate 58%
  6. 79 receptions, 820 yards, 4 TD's, Success Rate 56.3%
  7. 74 receptions, 1017 yards, 7 TD's, Success Rate 54%
  8. 58 receptions, 847 yards, 5 TD's, Success Rate 53.7%
  9. 111 receptions, 1165 yards, 3 TD's, Success Rate 58.4%
  10. 71 receptions, 1117 yards, 6 TD's, Success Rate 49.2%


Answer Key:
  1. RB - McCaffrey (2019)
  2. RB - McCaffrey (2025)
  3. WR - Garrett Wilson (2023)
  4. WR - Stefon Diggs (2025)
  5. WR - Jaylen Waddle (2025)
  6. RB - Bijan Robinson (2025)
  7. WR - Courtland Sutton (2025)
  8. WR - Parker Washington (2025)
  9. WR - Wes Welker (2008)
  10. WR - Nico Collins (2025)
Let's pretend all those RB seasons cost a premium cap hit for the RB position, and all those WR seasons cost a premium cap hit of WR2. You'd take the RB seasons. They cost less, with comparable production, but then add in all the rushing yards, and touchdowns, and you get someone who vastly outperforms the dollar amount with on-field production.

I get the concept of premium WR2 > premium RB ... unless the RB is a weapon in the passing game.

Love as a prospect, profiles as an RB who can hit that. Who you can dial up a lot of plays in the passing game for and give him 70 catches on 100 targets. If his success rate on catches is north of 50%, then you have an offense that's really hard to stop. Not all RB prospects who profile as a great pass game weapon wind up as such. Saquon Barkley did, but he never quite had that success in the NFL. Bijan Robinson did not quite, but then he developed it. McCaffrey did, and he became dominant at it. We should not underestimate Love's potential to be a real chain mover on passes thrown to him.
Nice post. Setting aside my assumption that (at least 1 of) Love or Tate will be gone by 7, I’m pretty much in agreement with you. I’ve waffled on Love vs Tate, but have landed on Love - positional value making it a closer call than it should be in a vacuum. Because ultimately, it’s not just Love as a runner, but his ability as a pass catcher and pass protector, and (to your point) how useful that can be.

With that said, and I’m sort of just playing Devil’s advocate here, a couple of things make me hesitant to fully agree with your point, and these are more questions I have than counterpoints.

First off, availability. We’ve been wanting someone to pair with Terry for years now and have yet to find a solution. We’ve had deep receiver draft classes and (particularly this year) tried to spend in FA. There’s more nuance to this than I want to get into in this post, but the bottom line is we haven’t found an answer to date. To be fair though, when’s the last time we had a complete back?

Secondly, there’s a question of what the player does for the team as a whole vs just their production level. So a guy like Tate could force a second safety deep - lightening the run front and opening up the underneath stuff for Chig/White/etc, or put a single high safety in conflict. Whereas Love probably draws an extra defender into the box (while Terry is still bracketed). Attached to this (arguably) is Daniels’ strength as a downfield thrower vs the short passing game and how quickly he hits his checkdowns (not that Love would only be a checkdown option). Again, lot of nuance - high/low reads, Kliff’s offense vs what Blough will run, the impact of PA, etc. And frankly, I can see the logic in applying a similar argument to Love - his impact on defenses (and our offense) even when he isn’t getting the ball.
 
I could see them picking Tyson but on a trade down only

Ok, ok.... or, hear me out... they trade up to get him 🤞🤞🤞

Blow Your Mind Wow GIF by Product Hunt
 
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Yeah it sort of fits what some of the scouts said.

Also some of my observations for months here -- the 2 things IMO some are off about Tyson are YAC and contested catches. Some say that's his gig. But if you watch all of his games, you see it really isn't. If anything he's below average at both.

He has moments on those fronts, but on the aggregate meh. And specifically as for YAC, there is an actual number, PFF averages it, and he sucks as far as that number. I think its Tate's weakness too but heck even Tate's YAC number is better than Tyson. Ditto with a below average on contested catches as PFF rates them. But if you don't get lost in his highlights and watch full games you see IMO the inconsistency. As I've mentioned before if you just watch the highlights, he's easily the #1 WR in this class. But that's not the full story.

I do think Tyson has some raw potential, twitchy as heck, quick feet, can get open in tight spaces on the first level but he IMO needs to grow as a player.
 
I’m not sure how important corner is to Jones’ scheme. They’re always important, of course. But HOW important?

Also, what is our biggest need right now? Weapons for Jayden, right? Why pass on the best weapon?

Agree as usual re Love. But regarding CB in Jones’ scheme, even for Flores, it took time to implement the scheme and get it productive as it is. And did the Vikings not take a CB because it wouldn’t have helped? We play in a tough WR division. I’d love to have someone that we can just stick on Ceedee, Pickens, Nabers, Smith and Brown. I think it could make a world of difference.

Can we draft MJ?



I saw this and wanted to post about it. I can’t believe that Jordan could run a 4.38. I do think that was probably young, super thin Jordan. Muscles up Jordan, later in his career didn’t appear to have quite the same degree of quickness and vert. What a crazy good athlete.
 
I remember when John Thompson tried to change MJ's nickname from Air Jordan to Floor Jordan.

I suspect we remember latter years Jordan better than the freak athlete he was in his early years. In some respects, it makes Darrell Green much more impressive. At 40, he was still winning fastest man in the NFL contests.
 
Agree as usual re Love. But regarding CB in Jones’ scheme, even for Flores, it took time to implement the scheme and get it productive as it is. And did the Vikings not take a CB because it wouldn’t have helped? We play in a tough WR division. I’d love to have someone that we can just stick on Ceedee, Pickens, Nabers, Smith and Brown. I think it could make a world of difference.



I saw this and wanted to post about it. I can’t believe that Jordan could run a 4.38. I do think that was probably young, super thin Jordan. Muscles up Jordan, later in his career didn’t appear to have quite the same degree of quickness and vert. What a crazy good athlete.
As I said, I’m sure it matters. It always does. But how much? And is that more important than the best weapon in the draft.

Of course I’d love Delane. But not at the expense of Love. Probably not Styles either, but I’m listening. Reese is a “if we use him right no… if not, yes”
 
Downs and Love have the potential to be generational talents at their positions, I don't see Delane being rated quite that highly in the profiles I have seen for the player.

When I see comments like he is a natural for a 'zone cover scheme' that to me is a limiting factor on a player at corner.

If you are taking a corner in the top 15 you want a guy that has the size and athleticism to play in ANY defensive scheme you are going to run and be a starter coming in.
 
Tate is definitely worthy but I really don’t see him getting past Cleveland at six. If he and Love somehow both fall, I’m still going Love. Easily.

As of now though Tate moves up to the number 2 spot on my list, and Downs for me has dropped behind Tate, Styles, and Delane..

Love
Tate
Styles
Delane
Downs

Still don’t want Reese or Bailey. The overwhelming consensus is for both to be long gone (top 4) so if one of them falls to 7 it would be a red flag for me. With Bain, even his biggest supporter KDawg doesn’t think he’s a good fit for us so no.
 
Downs and Love have the potential to be generational talents at their positions, I don't see Delane being rated quite that highly in the profiles I have seen for the player.

When I see comments like he is a natural for a 'zone cover scheme' that to me is a limiting factor on a player at corner.

If you are taking a corner in the top 15 you want a guy that has the size and athleticism to play in ANY defensive scheme you are going to run and be a starter coming in.

I like Downs a lot. But hard for me to see generational with him where he has average measurables and average ball production. Usually, the generational safeties are either have freakish physicality or freakish balll skills.

Downs to me has great instincts, read-reaction, great smarts. I think he will be one of the better safeties in the league and in short order, but tough for me to see generational talent. But will see.
 
What to me sets Downs apart is the mental part of the game. He just has the natural instincts to play the game and be in the right place at the right time. You can't really coach that.

Ed Reed ran a 4.57 at the combine and teams shied off him. but the Ravens took him based largely on his intangibles and he's a HOFer. Guy was always in the right place to make the play.

Safety is one of those positions like middle linebacker or center on offense where measurables often don't tell the story on a guy's NFL career.

Quan Martin is a great athlete, he just doesn't know how to play football.
 
As I said, I’m sure it matters. It always does. But how much? And is that more important than the best weapon in the draft.

Of course I’d love Delane. But not at the expense of Love. Probably not Styles either, but I’m listening. Reese is a “if we use him right no… if not, yes”

Yeah to me its

1. Love
2. Styles
3. Tate

I am thinking Reese and Bailey are gone so they are not in my mind with this exercise

Then a peg drop off
4. Downs
5. Delane

I think we are on the same page on most of the top 10 types except: I am higher on Bailey and Tate than you are and lower on Bain.
 
What to me sets Downs apart is the mental part of the game. He just has the natural instincts to play the game and be in the right place at the right time. You can't really coach that.

Ed Reed ran a 4.57 at the combine and teams shied off him but the Ravens took him based largely on his intangibles and he's a HOFer.

I am very familiar with Downs' mental part, I am the one who posted all the articles here about it over time.

Ed Reed actually helps my point a lot actually -- as i said athleticism or ball production.

Yeah Reed wasn't fast but had sick ball production -- insane actually. 9 picks his last year at the U. 8 picks the year before. Crazy stuff from him.
 
Agree as usual re Love. But regarding CB in Jones’ scheme, even for Flores, it took time to implement the scheme and get it productive as it is. And did the Vikings not take a CB because it wouldn’t have helped? We play in a tough WR division. I’d love to have someone that we can just stick on Ceedee, Pickens, Nabers, Smith and Brown. I think it could make a world of difference.



I saw this and wanted to post about it. I can’t believe that Jordan could run a 4.38. I do think that was probably young, super thin Jordan. Muscles up Jordan, later in his career didn’t appear to have quite the same degree of quickness and vert. What a crazy good athlete.
That's why they called him the black cat. Young MJ was crazy explosive, quick, and fast
 
Yeah to me its

1. Love
2. Styles
3. Tate

I am thinking Reese and Bailey are gone so they are not in my mind with this exercise

Then a peg drop off
4. Downs
5. Delane

I think we are on the same page on most of the top 10 types except: I am higher on Bailey and Tate than you are and lower on Bain.
Interesting. From what I have seen Styles is the one player in that grouping that could turn out to be a tweener and disappoint. He's 6'5 and 244 but he's never put up the kind of production numbers you are talking about in the Downs discussion of why he may simply be very good to excellent rather than a consistent pro bowler or all-pro. There are questions about where exactly he fits in the NFL.

I don't quite buy the argument that some make that a player like Styles doesn't need a position and the DC can just move him around from edge, to linebacker to covering guys in the slot and then he becomes this monster Swiss Army knife.

Not many players envisioned in that role are actually as successful making an impact as fans tend to think coming in.

If I am the GM at #7 and have the Tate/Downs choice or Love/Downs, ANY of those three players has the chance to come in and make an immediate impact at a set position they are ideally suited to play at the NFL level.

Of the 4 players in question Styles has IMO the greatest bust potential.
 
If you ask me at this point, I think that they really like Tate but I think they feel like there are other capable receivers. Therefore I feel like they want Love Bailey, or trade down.

They will take those 2 if there but feel like they can still possibly get a Downs or Delane a little further back, and maybe a Lemon or Tyson even a little further back, and maybe a Boston right behind that.

think that they have Love and Bailey over everyone else with the rest of the guys on a similar level so we might as well move down and maybe even more than once depending on how far back
 

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