Jennings is a good player, no question. He’s big, physical, competitive, and a really solid route runner. He is a great run blocker. He’s basically the ideal possession receiver. But he just doesn’t have downfield juice. He ran in 4.72 coming out of college and he’s not getting faster, so you’re not getting a guy who threatens vertically or creates explosive plays.And I do think some of his production is tied to the Kyle Shanahan system. That offense is really good at scheming guys open, especially receivers who can win underneath, block, and play with physicality. Jennings fits that perfectly. The question is how much of that translates if you pull him out of that ecosystem.
I’d still like to have him, especially depending on what else they do at WR. But I’m not paying $23M AAV for that profile. At that number, you want a guy who can tilt coverage and give you explosive plays, not just move the chains. If AP had a ceiling around $18M like you mentioned, I’m completely fine with him sticking to that. That feels much closer to fair value for what Jennings actually brings.