The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

KDawg said:
Okay - I’ve been baited.

What are we defining as tools? If it’s pure physical, yes, agreed.

If it’s skill set, I strongly disagree. Let’s define terms.
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I always think of “tools” as being raw physicals. Not necessarily just measurables, but often including them. But I don’t disagree that it’s a limiting mindset and skillset really also applies

I mostly was just being pedantic because the slam dunk was there, but I didn’t intend to bait anyone specifically lol

I like Bain in a vacuum despite having hesitation over the idea that he’d need to be sort of a unicorn to be a true stud, which is always my wish for a top-10 pick, but have other preferences at 7. As a “worst case scenario” though I’m not that mad at the idea.

I’m actually back and forth between he and Downs as #7 “backup plans” because I think I’m way lower than average on Downs, despite also liking him.
 
skinsinparadise said:
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Meme GIF by ALL SEEING EYES
 
Yeah I don't know about this new kid Mike Tyson. He's young and has short arms. I don't think he's going to have a lot of success in boxing. They say the kid has a relentless engine, is very aggressive and hits like a freight train. I guess we will see.
 
skinsinparadise said:
Your dream of seeing Tate in Giant blue might come true. But I'd rather them draft Tate than Styles. Judging by the executives interviewed by the Athletic, Tate not falling to 7 so you are in luck.

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Walker/Skatebo plus Tate/Nabers/Slayton would suck
 
KDawg said:
I’m legitimately asking. I don’t have the number - if you have it I’d love to know.

And I’m no guru. I love football, make a small part of my living on it and enjoy talking ball. I learn new things every day.
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This is the kinda thing AI is great for. Extend to 2nd round? Zero. Extend to 3rd round? One, Trey Hendrickson.

Short answer:
Zero. No defensive end/edge rusher with arms under 31 inches has ever been drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft (at least since reliable combine tracking began in the late 1990s).

Key historical data​

  • The shortest recorded arm length for a 1st-round edge rusher since 2003 is 31⅜ inches by Jerome McDougle, drafted 15th overall in 2003. (ESPN.com)
  • Analysts tracking combine measurements note that no defensive end with arms under 31 inches has even been drafted in the top 100 picks, let alone the first round. (BroBible)

Why it almost never happens​

NFL teams strongly prefer longer arms for edge rushers because it helps them:

  • Lock out offensive tackles
  • Control blockers’ chest plates
  • Maintain separation while rushing or setting the edge
The typical prototype edge rusher has ~33-inch arms or longer, making sub-31 extremely rare for the position. (NFL.com)

Current example (2026 draft)​

  • Rueben Bain Jr. measured 30⅞-inch arms at the 2026 combine. (NFL.com)
  • If he is drafted in Round 1, he would become the first defensive end ever with sub-31-inch arms to do so.(BroBible)
✅ Bottom line:

  • Historically: 0 first-round defensive ends with <31″ arms
  • Closest: 31⅜″ (Jerome McDougle, 2003)
  • Possible first ever: Rueben Bain Jr. in the 2026 draft
If you want, I can also show you the shortest-armed 1st-round edge rushers ever drafted (top 10) — some of them are surprising and still became good players.
 
Skinfanjon said:
This is the kinda thing AI is great for. Extend to 2nd round? Zero. Extend to 3rd round? One, Trey Hendrickson.

Short answer:
Zero. No defensive end/edge rusher with arms under 31 inches has ever been drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft (at least since reliable combine tracking began in the late 1990s).

Key historical data​

  • The shortest recorded arm length for a 1st-round edge rusher since 2003 is 31⅜ inches by Jerome McDougle, drafted 15th overall in 2003. (ESPN.com)
  • Analysts tracking combine measurements note that no defensive end with arms under 31 inches has even been drafted in the top 100 picks, let alone the first round. (BroBible)

Why it almost never happens​

NFL teams strongly prefer longer arms for edge rushers because it helps them:

  • Lock out offensive tackles
  • Control blockers’ chest plates
  • Maintain separation while rushing or setting the edge
The typical prototype edge rusher has ~33-inch arms or longer, making sub-31 extremely rare for the position. (NFL.com)

Current example (2026 draft)​

  • Rueben Bain Jr. measured 30⅞-inch arms at the 2026 combine. (NFL.com)
  • If he is drafted in Round 1, he would become the first defensive end ever with sub-31-inch arms to do so.(BroBible)
✅ Bottom line:

  • Historically: 0 first-round defensive ends with <31″ arms
  • Closest: 31⅜″ (Jerome McDougle, 2003)
  • Possible first ever: Rueben Bain Jr. in the 2026 draft
If you want, I can also show you the shortest-armed 1st-round edge rushers ever drafted (top 10) — some of them are surprising and still became good players.
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Sure, I love data points that help to legitimize a good hypothesis
 
KDawg said:
Sure, I love data points that help to legitimize a good hypothesis
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Unfortunately, I also asked it how many wide receivers under 5 feet have been drafted in the 1st round and that answer was also zero.
 
Skinfanjon said:
Unfortunately, I also asked it how many wide receivers under 5 feet have been drafted in the 1st round and that answer was also zero.
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Well, that’s not very relevant to the conversation.

We’re talking about edge rushers, man.
 
I'm standing my ground on Bain. I've been watching him for a few years because I live in Miami. He is quite quick, very strong and makes plays. Non-stop motor. Like I said you can't measure heart. I don't want to say he's a student of the game, per se, but he definitely spends the time to learn and improve.

I got you KDawg
 
Skinfanjon said:
Unfortunately, I also asked it how many wide receivers under 5 feet have been drafted in the 1st round and that answer was also zero.
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You understand that all that general AI does is scrape the web and provides basic results based on the available data found, correct? Basic AI does not do in depth analysis unless trained and programmed to do so.
 
RedWolf said:
You understand that all that general AI does is scrape the web and provides basic results based on the available data found, correct? Basic AI does not do in depth analysis unless trained and programmed to do so.
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I guess I consider scraping the web for data is particularly relevant to conversation at hand.
 
If we define tools like baseball does (5 tool player is the epitome of a fielder): Hit, Power, Run, Field, Throw.

All of that can be deconstructed in varying ways and combinations between athleticism, instincts, technical skills, and body structure. If we port that over to football, then his arm length, weight, height, hand size, etc would factor into his tools too, but wouldn't be a tool alone. I think we can probably quickly crowdsource a comparable set of "tools" here for Edge rushers.

Something like Burst, Bend, Power, Length, Awareness?

Length wouldn't just be long arms, it would be more along the lines of "is length a plus or minus for you against most offensive tackles". Ability to handfight, keep yourself clean in most situations (pass, run, second effort, etc) would factor in the length you have and how you use it. Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo weren't "long", they had about the same average arm length, but Kerrigan did a better job with Length. Keeping hands off him, having a "long-arm rush", etc. Neither had the Bend you want. Orakpo had better Burst. He had better Power...but not ideal Length to get to that Power. Kerrigan got a lot of sacks that cleaned up other guys pressures, he knew what was happening around the pocket and how to capitalize.

Am I way off base here or does this analogy from baseball kind of make sense?

P.S. For the record, a lot of baseball prospects start off with more potential tools but as they move up the minors it gets realized that they don't actually have as many as thought. So with Bain, Bailey, & Reese we're trying to project their tools and this is where all the subjective stuff comes into play.
 
Skinfanjon said:
I guess I consider scraping the web for data is particularly relevant to conversation at hand.
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Which is kind of the point of the conversation.
 
DWinzit said:
Walker/Skatebo plus Tate/Nabers/Slayton would suck
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They’re gonna need a QB to get them the ball. Dart isn’t going to survive. Him and Skatt might both be out of the league in 2-3 years with the way they play. Dart had to go into concussion protocol in at least half of his games last season. That’s insane and not sustainable. I also don’t think he’s that great of a QB either. He shrunk in big moments in college. Let’s hope it takes another 2-3 years for the Giants to realize that.
 
Traits I look for as most critical for a DE, pretty much in this order:
1. Quick twitch/burst off the snap. This to me is the primary area that Faulk completely fails
2. Speed - Huge steps combined with body rotation to get up the field and closing speed
3. Bend
4. Hand fighting skills
5. Relentless motor
6. Moves
7. Size and length

BUT... realistically there is a minimum standard for every one of those where if they don't exceed it you can't draft him.

Chase Young failed here because of a lack of 3, 4, and slowness/resistance to developing 6.

Bailey is awesome at 1, 4, and 6, and his crazy long arms make him good at 7 even though he's only 6-3, 250.

Bain is a monster on 1, 2, 3 and most awesome on 5. Love his relentlessness. But it's all about meeting that minimum standard at 7. It's a tough call. I won't hate it if we pick him but I'll be anxious. Glad I don't have to hang my NFL GM career on that choice.
 
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Here is a list of 12 traits for Edge rushers
  • Get-Off / Burst Off the Snap – The first step. How quickly the defender explodes out of his stance and threatens the tackle’s set point.
  • Speed-to-Power Conversion – The ability to coil and recoil the body to translate acceleration into force through the blocker’s chest. This is the foundation of most effective power rushers.
  • Pad Level and Leverage – Consistently playing low with knee bend so force transfers upward into the blocker rather than being absorbed. Critical for both pass rush and run defense.
  • Play Strength and Core Strength – Upper body and core strength to anchor against the run, control contact, and generate power through the blocker.
  • Hand Usage and Hand Fighting – Violent, precise hands (swipes, chops, rips, clubs, long-arm) to defeat blocks, control a blocker’s frame, and keep the chest clean in both pass rush and run defense.
  • Bend and Flexibility – Ankle and hip flexibility that allows a rusher to reduce his surface area and turn tight corners without losing speed.
  • Speed / Upfield Threat – True long speed that forces tackles to respect the edge and open their hips early.
  • Length and Frame – Arm length and wingspan that allow a defender to lock out blockers, control contact, and finish plays outside his frame.
  • Lateral Quickness / Change of Direction – The ability to cross a blocker’s face, execute inside counters, and redirect in tight spaces.
  • Motor and Competitive Toughness – Effort, physicality, and willingness to finish plays through contact and pursue the ball.
  • Run Defense Technique / Edge Setting – Ability to stack, peek, and shed, maintain outside leverage, and control the edge against tackles and tight ends.
  • Pass Rush Plan – The ability to sequence moves and counters (speed → power → counter, inside-out, etc.) rather than relying on a single move and to do so with correct timing, not too early or late.
 
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