The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[Higskin]

Judging from the Giants board comments, they'll riot if Harbaugh takes an RB.

 

[burgold]

Judging from the Giants board comments, they'll riot if Harbaugh takes an RB.

Oh, the Giants are too busy polishing their Off-Season Bowl trophy.

 

[Anselmheifer]

The Raiders are taking a QB. The Jets, Cardinals and Browns don’t have QB’s, or the kind of team construction to draft a top 10RB. They are not ready.

It feels like the Titans will go WR or defense, but there is some danger there. They do have their QB in place.

The Giants have a RB already and I could see them taking Love, but this also feels like a WR or defensive player.

It feels like if Love isn’t on the board, it’s because the Giants or Titans took him, or somebody traded up.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Small rant: but why is the draft turning into an Excel spreadsheet for so many? Reading things about saving on potential APY due to the rate of growth on the positional value of position X over position Y means that in a scenario such as this you pass on the better player and draft a guy that is an a premium position because… maths.

I understand the economic stuff matters. And roster / cap management matters, but we’re living in a world where you can manipulate the cap in so many ways.

The draft is more about numbers than on field play.

“This receiver who has been great all season ran a 4.5… I think I’m out”

I mean I get it to a point, really, I do. Analytics are a thing in football and absolutely ALWAYS need to be considered, but when do we say, “you know what, analytics point to doing X, but our situation could use Y and Y has the better graded player…” and then making it happen?

Even regarding arm length… all sorts of data say not to take Bain. And you know what? I cannot argue the data points. My only question is… how many guys with his arm length have actually been given a chance to buck that trend? That is a bit of an off topic conversation piece, and I am fully aware that Bain is 99% not on our board and I have a hard time arguing it other than “I think he’s going to break the chain” - but that is such an out there take that I can’t even stand on a mountain and yell about it.

But aside from Bain, people all of a sudden think Tate isn’t a quality football player?

I saw there was a guy who ran a 4.26 last night. And JUST from that people are posting in comments, “welcome to SF!” “a Ram for sure!”

OFF OF A 40!?

I have watched zero of Brenen Thompson. His 40 will cause me to peak at him. But in a general sense there is such an over reliance on data points in football.

What happened to finding guys who can play the game and pass the eye test? What happened to using numbers to confirm hypothesis for each player?

“Wow, he ran a 4.4 but he looked slower on film…” and then going to watch it and see why that might be the case. Or “wow! He ran a 4.5 but on film he looks faster…” and then you rewatch and see that while he may not be as fast as you think he has such high quality footwork and body manipulation with ball tracking that he just plays faster than that.

To be fair, this is more of a problem outside of here. The takes here, for the most part, using numbers are a lot more nuanced and more thought out. So I can appreciate that.

This is just a Sunday morning rant on the state of the game.

This game is a major part of my life and sometimes I think people try to make it a spreadsheet simulator rather than what it should be: who plays this game better?

Again, I understand the necessity of analytics and why they exist and why they need to be valued. But sometimes it really should come down to: does this guy help our team more despite xyz because he is such a good football player?

And if that answer is yes, why quibble? Just do it. Build a winner. Surround your talent with talent. Get butts in seats.

I love this game and talking about it with all of you. I respect the hell out of guys bringing the AAV and APY and historical data to the convo. None of it is irrelevant. There is nuance to every conversation. I am not saying that the people who value this stuff are wrong.

But I am saying that sometimes just getting the best football player should matter more.

Anyways… going to watch some film soon and post about players. Thanks for letting me rant for the 2 people who read this.

Agree with this. I do use the combine for some players for specific reasons. But generally, the combine doesn't dictate at all who I push. For example I wasn't a Xavier Worthy guy, regardless of how entertained I was to watch his 40.

For me, I care about the combine purely when I have questions about the player. Take Jacob Rodriguez for example who I have become smitten with watching him play, and love the makeup of the player, intangibles, etc. He looked fine to my eyes covering the field side to sideline. But I know some critics considered him slow and a meh athlete. Sometimes that's hard for me to see. Sometimes its easier. It didn't put me off the player, I was plugging him still. But seeing a big time combine from him where he showed his athleticism is excellent -- it queled any fear I had about the player and if anything amped my love of the player.

Sadiq for example looked like a freak athlete to me, his reputation was that he's a freak athlete and it didn't change my take one whit. I am not down on the player. But I am not interested in spending a top 10 pick on a TE who is basically all about YAC. Decent blocker. But he isn't much of a route runner. So heck we already got a poor man's version of this with Sinnott.

I liked Sonny Styles and been talking him up months ago before it became cool. But for me to take a LB that high, I'd want a really high ceiling. I suspected Styles was a freak athlete but seeing the degree of it, got my attention. But the kicker with him were the interviews. I kept hearing great guy, smart and an amazing interview. So it rounded out the package for me to be sold on Styles as an early pick.

A guy like G. Bernard. Watching him as I mentioned reminded me of lol what Jay Gruden fantasized Ryan Grant was. That is, a dude who can do it all. Releases, seperatiion skills, hands catcher, blocker, YAC, can do it all but isn't electric at any of it. Seeing he's a good athlete, elevated him with me because of his style of play. Ditto Antonio Williams, similar story for me.

If you give me a player I like watching AND is a freak athlete AND with high intangbles AND you hear teams are blown away by their interviews -- you got me attention in a big way then. That was the story for me for example on ES when I loved Terry before the draft and he had some loud critics there.

Bringing this back to a dude like Jacob Rodriguez, comes off as a dude who works his ass off, played QB previously, smart, good person, seems good at diagnosing plays at LB, and can wreck the game with picks, sacks and forced fumbles AND he's a surprisingly good athlete -- I'd be all over taking him in the early 2nd but ala we don't have a pick there.

 

[KDawg]

The Raiders are taking a QB. The Jets, Cardinals and Browns don’t have QB’s, or the kind of team construction to draft a top 10RB. They are not ready.

It feels like the Titans will go WR or defense, but there is some danger there. They do have their QB in place.

The Giants have a RB already and I could see them taking Love, but this also feels like a WR or defensive player.

It feels like if Love isn’t on the board, it’s because the Giants or Titans took him, or somebody traded up.

I could see the Giants, Browns, Cardinals, Titans or even the Jets taking him.

There are a lot of threats.

The Browns and Jets are always wild cards because… Browns and Jets.

The Cardinals are in a similar position where they need the best player. I could see them going OL. I’d say QB but the second QB isn’t worth what they’d need to pay. I actually think they are a threat to trade back with KC.

The Titans need to do what we need to do: surround their franchise QB with weapons. I think after KC moving up they are the biggest threat.

I don’t think the Giants go there. But they could. I think they are looking at Downs or Tate.

I think it’s entirely possible that we could be looked at the following scenario (though predicting this is not an exact science and this could be way off, my point is I think this is a scenario that is semi realistic:

1. Raiders - Mendoza
2. Jets - Bailey
3. Cardinals / Chiefs - Love
4. Titans - Reese
5. Giants - Downs
6. Browns - Tate

Now, to be clear: I think at least one OL goes above us, which means one of these guys are available. But at our pick, in this realistic but not likely scenario that leaves us with:

OL
Delane
Styles

I think what this exercise has essentially done is it has let me know that we are going to have 1-2 of the boards top targets at 7. Not ideal… because we won’t get our top one. But we will be able to get one of them.

Now, do we pull the trigger? We’ll see.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Judging from the Giants board comments, they'll riot if Harbaugh takes an RB.

I think they would riot more if Harbaugh took a RB and then forgot to give either Love or 'Boo the ball for 2/3 of the game.

 

[KDawg]

Agree with this. I do use the combine for some players for specific reasons. But generally, the combine doesn't dictate at all who I push. For example I wasn't a Xavier Worthy guy, regardless of how entertained I was to watch his 40.

For me, I care about the combine purely when I have questions about the player. Take Jacob Rodriguez for example who I have become smitten with watching him play, and love the makeup of the player, intangibles, etc. He looked fine to my eyes covering the field side to sideline. But I know some critics considered him slow and a meh athlete. Sometimes that's hard for me to see. Sometimes its easier. It didn't put me off the player, I was plugging him still. But seeing a big time combine from him where he showed his athleticism is excellent -- it queled any fear I had about the player and if anything amped my love of the player.

Sadiq for example looked like a freak athlete to me, his reputation was that he's a freak athlete and it didn't change my take one whit. I am not down on the player. But I am not interested in spending a top 10 pick on a TE who is basically all about YAC. Decent blocker. But he isn't much of a route runner. So heck we already got a poor man's version of this with Sinnott.

I liked Sonny Styles and been talking him up months ago before it became cool. But for me to take a LB that high, I'd want a really high ceiling. I suspected Styles was a freak athlete but seeing the degree of it, got my attention. But the kicker with him were the interviews. I kept hearing great guy, smart and an amazing interview. So it rounded out the package for me to be sold on Styles as an early pick.

A guy like G. Bernard. Watching him as I mentioned reminded me of lol what Jay Gruden fantasized Ryan Grant was. That is, a dude who can do it all. Releases, seperatiion skills, hands catcher, blocker, YAC, can do it all but isn't electric at any of it. Seeing he's a good athlete, elevated him with me because of his style of play. Ditto Antonio Williams, similar story for me.

If you give me a player I like watching AND is a freak athlete AND with high intangbles AND you hear teams are blown away by their interviews -- you got me attention in a big way then. That was the story for me for example on ES when I loved Terry before the draft and he had some loud critics there.

Bringing this back to a dude like Jacob Rodriguez, comes off as a dude who works his ass off, played QB previously, smart, good person, seems good at diagnosing plays at LB, and can wreck the game with picks, sacks and forced fumbles AND he's a surprisingly good athlete -- I'd be all over taking him in the early 2nd but ala we don't have a pick there.

This is how the data should be used. I think the most important part of the combine, to Voice_of_Reason ’s point, is the medical and interview portion.

Other things can confirm or make you reevaluate the film. Which are really good things to have a chance to do.

The combine is very valuable. But someone who is a sub par player in college who is a top notch athlete shouldn’t all of a sudden fly up draft boards unless the film, medical and personality are also there. Or you find out that the scheme didn’t fit them through many behind the scenes convos.

Germie Bernard is a guy I’ve spent more and more time with and he’s been moving up for me anyways. His combine has put some extra bits and thoughts into my evals… one of which is I think Ryan Williams lost some of his touches to Germie. Still trying to navigate that. But Germie can help us. In a scenario where we traded back he’d be a potential target. But I still can’t for the life of me advocate for that even though there are some players I’d like in a trade back. They aren’t as good as the guys we can get at 7. And getting more sounds good on paper but if none of them are incredibly impactful what does that really do for us?

I really enjoy the combine for the guys I haven’t really watched yet. I watched Tacario Davis, the long, athletic corner from Washington based on his combine and… I think he’s okay. I think I still prefer Masses, but seethe intrigue with him. I think in rounds 4-7 he’s worth a roll of the dice because he has developmental potential. But I can’t see him being a guy you take with the intention he starts right now. The film just isn’t there.

I knew safety was see but man, even the guys not at the combine are solid. Bud Clark had a good week and practiced well at the Senior Bowl. His film and offseason have made me notice him. Kilgore. Thienemann. Taafe. Everette. There are so many safeties who would be an immediate upgrade for us. Some were on my radar, others are on it now and I need to watch them (and I haven’t yet so I won’t name them).

But that’s what this process helps me with. Those guys.

The IOL from Penn State, Ioane is another. Not from the combine, but I saw his name on a list of players attending and I watched him. Ya. He’s going to be really good I think. Interested in his results today (if he’s participating, haven’t looked into that).

But anyways. Long winded “yes!” From me.

 

[skinsinparadise]

The Raiders are taking a QB. The Jets, Cardinals and Browns don’t have QB’s, or the kind of team construction to draft a top 10RB. They are not ready.

It feels like the Titans will go WR or defense, but there is some danger there. They do have their QB in place.

The Giants have a RB already and I could see them taking Love, but this also feels like a WR or defensive player.

It feels like if Love isn’t on the board, it’s because the Giants or Titans took him, or somebody traded up.

I am hoping for Ioane or Fano to have a big combine. I already expect the Miami tackle to go top 6, I want another one to go top 6, too.

I think right now, we got a QB, Styles, tackle-guard going top 3.

I am guessing probably Reese, Bailey go, too.

Though McShay keeps beating the drum that scouts aren't as high on Reese as the draft media.

Speaking of McShay, heres some snippets from his email today
Love didn’t have to work out, but he did—and by doing so solidified his status as the truest blue-chip prospect in this class. I’d be surprised if he got out of the top 10, and think he could even go top five. The Titans at four, Saints at eight, and Chiefs at nine are teams to watch.

NFL Teams Aren’t Worried About Carnell Tate’s 40 Time​ ​

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Take a look at these notable NFL WRs with similar 40 times to Tate’s:​

CeeDee Lamb (4.50) Davante Adams (4.56) DeAndre Hopkins (4.57) Tee Higgins (4.59) Keenan Allen (4.58)

Nobody in the league cares at this number. He’s still my WR1.​

Malachi Fields Disappointment​ ​

Fields was one of my biggest post–Senior Bowl risers, but he had a couple red-flag workout numbers on Saturday. Specifically, his 4.61-second 40 and 1.63-second 10-yard split fell below the thresholds you’d want a receiver his size (6-foot-4, 218 pounds) to hit. While the lack of speed won’t tank his prospect status, it's on the cons list, especially for a guy who didn’t have eye-popping college production. I still like the player, but it’s gotten more difficult to justify his value in the top 40.​

​

​

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I could see the Giants, Browns, Cardinals, Titans or even the Jets taking him.

There are a lot of threats.

The Browns and Jets are always wild cards because… Browns and Jets.

The Cardinals are in a similar position where they need the best player. I could see them going OL. I’d say QB but the second QB isn’t worth what they’d need to pay. I actually think they are a threat to trade back with KC.

The Titans need to do what we need to do: surround their franchise QB with weapons. I think after KC moving up they are the biggest threat.

I don’t think the Giants go there. But they could. I think they are looking at Downs or Tate.

I think it’s entirely possible that we could be looked at the following scenario (though predicting this is not an exact science and this could be way off, my point is I think this is a scenario that is semi realistic:

1. Raiders - Mendoza
2. Jets - Bailey
3. Cardinals / Chiefs - Love
4. Titans - Reese
5. Giants - Downs
6. Browns - Tate

Now, to be clear: I think at least one OL goes above us, which means one of these guys are available. But at our pick, in this realistic but not likely scenario that leaves us with:

OL
Delane
Styles

I think what this exercise has essentially done is it has let me know that we are going to have 1-2 of the boards top targets at 7. Not ideal… because we won’t get our top one. But we will be able to get one of them.

Now, do we pull the trigger? We’ll see.

I'd prefer the Cardinals take the top OL prospect. And then the Chiefs try and trade with us.

And THAT would be an interesting conversation. Do you stand pat and draft Love or do you trade back and get maybe the best CB on the board and a couple mid-round picks this year and next....

Personally I'd take Love.

But I'm not sure that would be the majority opinion.

 

[clskinsfan]

Thanks for letting me rant for the 2 people who read this.

I agree with you. The Combine doesnt show the heart, will or work ethic of a player. And some players maintain their speed in pads. While others dont. Tate running a 4.5 is no big deal to me. Because his tape, against elite competition by the way, says he is a dominate football player who maintains his speed in pads.

Yes, athleticism is obviously important. But all of these guys are athletic. They wouldnt be at the combine if they werent. In some ways I think analytics is ruining the game.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Agree with this. I do use the combine for some players for specific reasons. But generally, the combine doesn't dictate at all who I push. For example I wasn't a Xavier Worthy guy, regardless of how entertained I was to watch his 40.

For me, I care about the combine purely when I have questions about the player. Take Jacob Rodriguez for example who I have become smitten with watching him play, and love the makeup of the player, intangibles, etc. He looked fine to my eyes covering the field side to sideline. But I know some critics considered him slow and a meh athlete. Sometimes that's hard for me to see. Sometimes its easier. It didn't put me off the player, I was plugging him still. But seeing a big time combine from him where he showed his athleticism is excellent -- it queled any fear I had about the player and if anything amped my love of the player.

Sadiq for example looked like a freak athlete to me, his reputation was that he's a freak athlete and it didn't change my take one whit. I am not down on the player. But I am not interested in spending a top 10 pick on a TE who is basically all about YAC. Decent blocker. But he isn't much of a route runner. So heck we already got a poor man's version of this with Sinnott.

I liked Sonny Styles and been talking him up months ago before it became cool. But for me to take a LB that high, I'd want a really high ceiling. I suspected Styles was a freak athlete but seeing the degree of it, got my attention. But the kicker with him were the interviews. I kept hearing great guy, smart and an amazing interview. So it rounded out the package for me to be sold on Styles as an early pick.

A guy like G. Bernard. Watching him as I mentioned reminded me of lol what Jay Gruden fantasized Ryan Grant was. That is, a dude who can do it all. Releases, seperatiion skills, hands catcher, blocker, YAC, can do it all but isn't electric at any of it. Seeing he's a good athlete, elevated him with me because of his style of play. Ditto Antonio Williams, similar story for me.

If you give me a player I like watching AND is a freak athlete AND with high intangbles AND you hear teams are blown away by their interviews -- you got me attention in a big way then. That was the story for me for example on ES when I loved Terry before the draft and he had some loud critics there.

Bringing this back to a dude like Jacob Rodriguez, comes off as a dude who works his ass off, played QB previously, smart, good person, seems good at diagnosing plays at LB, and can wreck the game with picks, sacks and forced fumbles AND he's a surprisingly good athlete -- I'd be all over taking him in the early 2nd but ala we don't have a pick there.

The only thing I would nit-pick is I'm not entirely sure you REALLY know if the player is an elite athlete by combine measurements, because the athletes can spend 3-4 months preparing for that particular drill.

You can coach a good athlete to run the 40 with better technique that they would never use on gameday.

I get that it's all we have, and everybody wants year over year comparable, but the system is basically flawed.

Overall, though, I agree with your point, you want to use the combine to confirm opinions you have based on watching film. And the medicals and interviews are really important.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Anyways… going to watch some film soon and post about players. Thanks for letting me rant for the 2 people who read this.

As of this post, there were 7 people who reacted to it, so you grossly underestimate the draw of your rants.

We all love a good KDawg rant....

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

The Raiders are taking a QB. The Jets, Cardinals and Browns don’t have QB’s, or the kind of team construction to draft a top 10RB. They are not ready.

It feels like the Titans will go WR or defense, but there is some danger there. They do have their QB in place.

The Giants have a RB already and I could see them taking Love, but this also feels like a WR or defensive player.

It feels like if Love isn’t on the board, it’s because the Giants or Titans took him, or somebody traded up.

But the Jets, Cardinals and Browns are the Jets, Cardinals and Browns, and therefore the Jets will Jet, the Cardinals will Cardinal and the Browns will Brown.

Which basically means they're probably going to do the things which is the opposite of their best interest.

Basically, like we did for 30 years.

 

[KDawg]

I'd prefer the Cardinals take the top OL prospect. And then the Chiefs try and trade with us.

And THAT would be an interesting conversation. Do you stand pat and draft Love or do you trade back and get maybe the best CB on the board and a couple mid-round picks this year and next....

Personally I'd take Love.

But I'm not sure that would be the majority opinion.

I don't even need to think about it. I am not moving back two places.

That means I am taking whatever is left on my board of top players, not the guy I wanted necessarily. Granted, if we drafted perfectly off of that and got studs with our new selections, I could over time be on board with that idea.

But to me, right now, we need to support Jayden right now. And Love is the perfect asset to do that. If Love is there and we hand him to Kansas City... I'd be pretty sad

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I don't even need to think about it. I am not moving back two places.

That means I am taking whatever is left on my board of top players, not the guy I wanted necessarily. Granted, if we drafted perfectly off of that and got studs with our new selections, I could over time be on board with that idea.

But to me, right now, we need to support Jayden right now. And Love is the perfect asset to do that. If Love is there and we hand him to Kansas City... I'd be pretty sad

I agree with you 100%.

I'm just saying, I'm not sure it's the majority opinion. I'm also not sure that it would be Peter's decision.

If we had any additional draft capital, I would actually be advocating for a small move UP to get one of the two best offensive players. That dumb win against the Eagles irks me. Not as much as it irks others, but it irks me. Also, they should have played to win and they didn't and that was stupid for them.

I want either Tate or Love in the draft. If we get Styles or Downs, that's fine. I want them to go out and spend money at DE and not have to pick one. Maybe it's just me, but I'm still scarred by the fact we tried 4 high-ish picks on DL, and only one really worked out well, and that was Jonathan Allen. Sweat was ok, but inconsistent, Payne, apart from one season is "meh" and Young was a disaster. So I'd be more inclined to get a proven commodity at edge by using money and then draft offense.

 

[heisenberg]

That’s why I’ve been 100% BPA all along. Love is that. I hope we get him.

Ive been on the love train all along but if im being totally honest its going to depend on free agency.
Obviously if we bring in someone like hall or walker its extremely unlikely that we'll be drafting love and im not entirely sure i wouldn't prefer that.

Right now it looks like theres so much talent at running back in free agency and little to very little at edge and receiver if we can kill two birds with one stone that might not be a bad plan either.

Hall or walker coupled with downs, Bailey, tate or styles might be better than love coupled with oweh, mafe and or pierce.

Either scenario and I'd be tickled honestly but if we don't get a top back in free agency and do fill the other premium positions then its love all the way for me on draft day.
It'll suck though waiting until 7 knowing we telegraphed it and hoping he doesn't go before our pick.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Small rant: but why is the draft turning into an Excel spreadsheet for so many? Reading things about saving on potential APY due to the rate of growth on the positional value of position X over position Y means that in a scenario such as this you pass on the better player and draft a guy that is an a premium position because… maths.

I understand the economic stuff matters. And roster / cap management matters, but we’re living in a world where you can manipulate the cap in so many ways.

The draft is more about numbers than on field play.

“This receiver who has been great all season ran a 4.5… I think I’m out”

I mean I get it to a point, really, I do. Analytics are a thing in football and absolutely ALWAYS need to be considered, but when do we say, “you know what, analytics point to doing X, but our situation could use Y and Y has the better graded player…” and then making it happen?

Even regarding arm length… all sorts of data say not to take Bain. And you know what? I cannot argue the data points. My only question is… how many guys with his arm length have actually been given a chance to buck that trend? That is a bit of an off topic conversation piece, and I am fully aware that Bain is 99% not on our board and I have a hard time arguing it other than “I think he’s going to break the chain” - but that is such an out there take that I can’t even stand on a mountain and yell about it.

But aside from Bain, people all of a sudden think Tate isn’t a quality football player?

I saw there was a guy who ran a 4.26 last night. And JUST from that people are posting in comments, “welcome to SF!” “a Ram for sure!”

OFF OF A 40!?

I have watched zero of Brenen Thompson. His 40 will cause me to peak at him. But in a general sense there is such an over reliance on data points in football.

What happened to finding guys who can play the game and pass the eye test? What happened to using numbers to confirm hypothesis for each player?

“Wow, he ran a 4.4 but he looked slower on film…” and then going to watch it and see why that might be the case. Or “wow! He ran a 4.5 but on film he looks faster…” and then you rewatch and see that while he may not be as fast as you think he has such high quality footwork and body manipulation with ball tracking that he just plays faster than that.

To be fair, this is more of a problem outside of here. The takes here, for the most part, using numbers are a lot more nuanced and more thought out. So I can appreciate that.

This is just a Sunday morning rant on the state of the game.

This game is a major part of my life and sometimes I think people try to make it a spreadsheet simulator rather than what it should be: who plays this game better?

Again, I understand the necessity of analytics and why they exist and why they need to be valued. But sometimes it really should come down to: does this guy help our team more despite xyz because he is such a good football player?

And if that answer is yes, why quibble? Just do it. Build a winner. Surround your talent with talent. Get butts in seats.

I love this game and talking about it with all of you. I respect the hell out of guys bringing the AAV and APY and historical data to the convo. None of it is irrelevant. There is nuance to every conversation. I am not saying that the people who value this stuff are wrong.

But I am saying that sometimes just getting the best football player should matter more.

Anyways… going to watch some film soon and post about players. Thanks for letting me rant for the 2 people who read this.

The simple answer? Everyone on the outside looking in wants to figure out the secret sauce. The mathematical calculation that determines whether or not a player will be successful. It's the same mentality behind the most commonly reported "you have a 5% chance of hitting on a CB in the 5th round" type argument. Its a completely invalid and incorrect statistic because the players change from year to year, so to act like the hit rate of CBs in 2015 is going to somehow determine the hit rate, or even likelihood, of a CB hitting in the 5th round in 2026 is simply false, because EVERYTHING about the CB taken in the 5th round this year is different than the ones taken in 2015. The players talent, mentality, homesickness, injury history, FUTURE injuries, the team he gets drafted to, the scheme they run, the fact that the DC is on the outs, the depth chart ahead of him, getting drafted to a division with ALL PRO QBs vs one with 4 terrible ones. The opponents they'll face, EVERYTHING is different, and everything effects the success or failure of a player. Chase Youngs success ultimately has ZERO effect on Rueben Bain's, so to act like the hit % from previous years has an influence on this years is incorrect.

Also, the meticulous nature of the results. People actually saying Tate's 40 time of 4.53 is 'bad' is something I think people over-state. The difference between 4.53 and 4.47 is 6 100ths of a second. The best reaction times by anyone in the world tends to be formula 1 racers, and their reaction times span from .15 to .30 seconds... triple the time of the difference between 4.53 and 4.47. Add to it, that these guys are running in a controlled environment, with no defender, in a straight line, with no pads, having prepared for this exact drill.

All of this information has a place, but like you, i think it's largely overstated how much paper information comes into evaluating humans. It comes back to the 'madden mentality' where your ratings are what they are, and you can only perform to those ratings.

 

[burgold]

The only thing I would nit-pick is I'm not entirely sure you REALLY know if the player is an elite athlete by combine measurements, because the athletes can spend 3-4 months preparing for that particular drill.

You can coach a good athlete to run the 40 with better technique that they would never use on gameday.

I get that it's all we have, and everybody wants year over year comparable, but the system is basically flawed.

Overall, though, I agree with your point, you want to use the combine to confirm opinions you have based on watching film. And the medicals and interviews are really important.

Just to critique your critique. Whoa! That's meta. I think there is value to seeing a player realize that they need to improve on a skill (let's say sprinting) and bust their ass to "wow" at the combine. If, six weeks after the college season, they take to coaching, master the (sprinting) technique and excel at the combine it does provide some info. Mind you, I don't think that's determinative, but it does show the player is a worker and can pick up new techniques which probably is useful.

 

[skinsinparadise]

The only thing I would nit-pick is I'm not entirely sure you REALLY know if the player is an elite athlete by combine measurements, because the athletes can spend 3-4 months preparing for that particular drill.

You can coach a good athlete to run the 40 with better technique that they would never use on gameday.

I get that it's all we have, and everybody wants year over year comparable, but the system is basically flawed.

Overall, though, I agree with your point, you want to use the combine to confirm opinions you have based on watching film. And the medicals and interviews are really important.

For someone who used to run track, there is not a ton you can do to improve a 40 time, you can improve get off, but you are either twitchy or you aren't.

The thing about it is I do believe the combine does a good job of diciphering twitchiness-agility to some degree. Between the 40, the broad, the vertical and 3 cone-shuttle you have a lot of variables to dive into.

Now lol I notice players don't love doing the short shuttle-3 cone. Some here were giving a hard time to Bailey for not doing the shuttle -- but heck really no edge did it or the 3 cone aside from 2 players.

Then you got some guys that you wonder about why did they do this metric but skip the others. If my records are right, I am starting to compile these stats as I always do predraft, K. Faulk just did the broad jump, and sucked at it. So is that him cherry picking his best? And that's what he did. But he's a bigger dude so tougher assignment for him.

But its like anything, same argument I have with you here and there about PFF. There are some on the ES draft thread who thought I ignored too many PFF metrics, you thought I was totally dependant on them. But for me its all about context.

Sometimes PFF numbers are interesting factoring context. Sometimes combine numbers are interesting factoring context. But, using any data blindly is useless.

 

[Dlts20]

One thing that people must realize is that free agency effects other teams also. They will solve a lot of their problems there too so their draft needs will change just like ours. I could see KC going for Kenneth Walker or someone and won't even be looking at Love anymore. That goes for every team in front of us. We will know a lot more about the draft in 2 weeks