The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

I watched a breakdown video evaluating all the reps between R. Mason Thomas and Kadyn Proctor. There were only two or three run reps, so it was almost entirely pass-rush snaps.

The overall takeaway was that Mason Thomas clearly had the advantage when aligned wide — particularly in 9 technique. From those wide alignments, he consistently stressed Proctor’s depth in his pass set. Proctor showed a soft outside shoulder at times, and Mason Thomas was able to challenge that edge. It created an interesting dynamic because Mason Thomas isn’t the biggest edge rusher, while Proctor is massive. When Mason Thomas threatened the corner with speed and bend, he risked running into Proctor’s punch. If Proctor landed clean hands, the rep was often over. But if Mason Thomas avoided or defeated the punch, he had a real chance to win. On speed-to-power attempts from wide alignments, Mason Thomas occasionally exploited that soft outside shoulder. However, Proctor’s size and mass sometimes allowed him to re-anchor and recover. So those reps were more competitive — Mason Thomas could win, but he wasn’t overwhelming him.

The contrast showed up when Mason Thomas aligned tighter to the formation. When he rushed closer to the ball and Proctor could jump set and get both hands on him early, Proctor almost always controlled the rep. Once Proctor got square and landed both hands, the matchup wasn’t particularly interesting — the size advantage took over. So the matchup really hinged on alignment. Wide alignment created stress and made things competitive. Tighter alignment allowed Proctor to dictate terms and largely shut the rep down.

Here is roughly the first half of the video I watched:
 
My David Bailey dream seems in jeopardy and alas I don't think the combine is going to help me on that front.



 
Did I miss something? When watching the Utah game and Az State game, those OT prospects did not get smashed by Bailey. And Bailey was dominated in the run game. Did I watch different film than everyone else? Did I watch the wrong year?
 
I still see Bailey and Downs as my favorite players and the best players in this draft.

Would they be the top players in other recent drafts? I don't think so.

This draft is just weaker at the top, they both have shortcomings but are very good players. It's also why we will see arguments over the next 2 months for lots of different players falling in the top 7 including deserving OL and CBs which were virtually ignored in that conversation a month or two ago.

I am sticking with my thoughts that if neither of these guys are available I am praying for a good small trade back offer. This team needs such a large talent infusion that a small trade back would benefit the roster by allowing more options on day 3 and early day 3.
 
Did I miss something? When watching the Utah game and Az State game, those OT prospects did not get smashed by Bailey. And Bailey was dominated in the run game. Did I watch different film than everyone else? Did I watch the wrong year?

I've watched it now three times. I think it depends on your expectations perhaps can influence how it comes off for better or worse. And it can cut both ways. If you think Bailey is a bad run stopper, he had one play in the red zone that led to a TD where the RB spun past a few defenders and Bailey among them. But otherwise there weren't a lot of runs headed his way and he had some run stops in that mix, some clips of it. I don't think this is the game to slam his run stopping. I know some dude hit him on it in the youtube comments but to each their own on that, I didn't see it in this game much.

He didn't dominate Fano and if the idea is people expecting that, then I'd get the disappointment. But he was decent against him, maybe even you can say good. He had a 14% pressure rate against him which would like lol one of Faulk's best pressure games of the season.

He was disruptive and ultimately had a sack. I think what helps me bring it home is I watched the first half of Chubb last night against Tunsil and that was a joke. Tunsil dominated Chubb. If Chubb looked like Bailey did against Fano, I'd be go get Chubb.

Also both tackles from Utah are hyped and they needed help to block Bailey. I can put all the double teams and chips on Bailey, it had to be at least 50% of the time. That's respect.

I don't think you are crazy judging by twitter lol some see it like you and some see it like me. But I was thinking about the why -- I am guessing its expectation. But yeah after watching the Chubb-Tunsil matchup I am much more impressed with Bailey in this game. If this is the version of a "bad" game from Bailey I'll take it.

All different plays below

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Bailey is a good pass rusher. I’ve never said otherwise. I just don’t know that the rest makes up for it. At least not immediately. I view Bailey as a project. But a high end project.

But DJ and Bucky Brooks, according to the tweet you posted, said Bailey “smashed” those OTs. I have NO idea how you come to that conclusion.

He applied pressure, and he plays with a motor. He has high upside. And in a few years with some added weight and some technique refinement can be good in the run game.

But it’s a projection for that part. What isn’t is his pass rush ability. He has the pass rushing chops.
 
Draft before FA happened I think once in the modern era, maybe it was the latest CBA negotiation year? Or during Covid? It was awesome.

It was 2011, and there was a mini-lockout. We drafted Ryan Kerrigan first, then added Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield (both DT's) in free agency. Totally changed the DL and added focus for Free Agency. It was great.

It would also somewhat change the debate of Need vs BPA, vs weighting them. As pre-free agency every team has needs everywhere. The draft would shift mostly to BPA, like baseball's draft does.
 
DJ's latest mock (click here)

He has Reese falling to #7 and scooped up by us. I know some are skeptical of where exactly he fits, but if Daronte Jones is running the defense the Vikings ran...then there's a distinct position for Reese. Luvu occupies that a little right now, but Luvu is in the last year of his deal. And I'm sure Daronte Jones would love to have a 2nd blitz/cover guy, especially one that profiles as a possible speed threat around the Edge in a way Luvu can't.

Cowboys get McCoy (uuuggghhh)
Malachi Fields is at #26? I have hopes of grabbing him in the 3rd...blah.
 
In that scenario, I'd love to trade back with someone who really wants Love (assuming we add Walker, Hall, etc. in FA) and get an extra pick or two. If the Vikings came up from 18, where we could take Boston, Sadiq, maybe Styles is there? That would net us a nice haul in picks; possibly a 1st for next year?

hypothetical office space GIF
 
I would be very happy with Arvell Reese at 7. Especially if we run something along the lines of Flores Vikings defense. Reese is a physical and violent player and I think those guys translate well. And if you want a guy who is part onball/part offball LB he can do that well. If you are looking for a pure pass rusher, he is a bit raw, though his speed to power is good and creates a solid foundation to work from. But for teams that want to convert him to a pure edge, I could see hesitating a bit as that will take some development. But I think he is pretty ideal for a Flores system where you want somebody in that Van Ginkel role which is part on ball/ part offball linebacker. I think Luvu is a decent comparison for Reese except Reese is substantially more athletically gifted than Luvu (Reese is 10 pounds bigger, runs an estimated 4.48 compared to Luvu at 4.84 on his proday, and Reese reported as 34.25 inch arms) and maybe a bit more conservative/risk adverse than Luvu (Luvu is a playmaker, but that involves guessing sometimes and even the good ones don't always guess right). They are both really physical/violent players.
 
I'm with KDawg, I don't see how Bailey dominated Fano. He had maaaybe 2 pressures (I could go back and chart the game I suppose, and this is all subjective) on Fano. Fano gave up 2 other pressures (I thought) but one was to a different Edge and another was to a DT. I don't think that was Fano's best game, or maybe he's just not quite a Top 10 level OT prospect. He's not pass blocking like Joe Alt...but the 2024 draft class was absolutely loaded with talent. There are times where Fano completely shut down whatever Edge he was against (occasionally that was Bailey), but it seemed a bit more inconsistent than I was expecting. I don't think Bailey did a whole lot positive against the run either.

The sack Bailey "had on" Fano, I don't know how anyone charting can attribute that to Fano. Bailey was stoned by Fano, another guy crossed past Fano so he passed off Bailey to the Guard (who had him but then lost him, credit to Bailey) so Fano could take the free rusher.

If the national draft media wants to paint a narrative very pro-Bailey because they know the Jets are interested then sure whatever, but their claims are simply hyperbole.
 
I'm with KDawg, I don't see how Bailey dominated Fano. He had maaaybe 2 pressures (I could go back and chart the game I suppose, and this is all subjective) on Fano. Fano gave up 2 other pressures (I thought) but one was to a different Edge and another was to a DT. I don't think that was Fano's best game, or maybe he's just not quite a Top 10 level OT prospect. He's not pass blocking like Joe Alt...but the 2024 draft class was absolutely loaded with talent. There are times where Fano completely shut down whatever Edge he was against (occasionally that was Bailey), but it seemed a bit more inconsistent than I was expecting. I don't think Bailey did a whole lot positive against the run either.

The sack Bailey "had on" Fano, I don't know how anyone charting can attribute that to Fano. Bailey was stoned by Fano, another guy crossed past Fano so he passed off Bailey to the Guard (who had him but then lost him, credit to Bailey) so Fano could take the free rusher.

If the national draft media wants to paint a narrative very pro-Bailey because they know the Jets are interested then sure whatever, but their claims are simply hyperbole.

He wasn't lined up just versus Fano. He switched from right to left, Lomu at LT is considered by some as a late first rounder/earlly 2nd. Agree he didn't dominate him. But he played well enough IMO against both. Not sure how to define pressure. But as to being disruptive he was plenty disruptive in that game.

I don't think DJ was defining Bailey as playing well against higher draft picks purely on the Utah game alone if he were, you'd think he would just say the Utah game.

Go watch as I mentioned Chubb against Tunsil, the first quarter, I stopped after that because it was just ridiculous and then watch Bailey versus the Utah tackles and you can see very clearly the difference between disruptive let alone often against double teams versus a dude who was shut out.
 
I would be very happy with Arvell Reese at 7. Especially if we run something along the lines of Flores Vikings defense. Reese is a physical and violent player and I think those guys translate well. And if you want a guy who is part onball/part offball LB he can do that well. If you are looking for a pure pass rusher, he is a bit raw, though his speed to power is good and creates a solid foundation to work from. But for teams that want to convert him to a pure edge, I could see hesitating a bit as that will take some development. But I think he is pretty ideal for a Flores system where you want somebody in that Van Ginkel role which is part on ball/ part offball linebacker. I think Luvu is a decent comparison for Reese except Reese is substantially more athletically gifted than Luvu (Reese is 10 pounds bigger, runs an estimated 4.48 compared to Luvu at 4.84 on his proday, and Reese reported as 34.25 inch arms) and maybe a bit more conservative/risk adverse than Luvu (Luvu is a playmaker, but that involves guessing sometimes and even the good ones don't always guess right). They are both really physical/violent players.

I got to get that Indiana game out of my head with him were IMO he was so so. I've also heard months ago character concerns -- who knows -- but usually that surfaces more during the combine with leaks.

But yeah I am starting to get the vibe that the idea that he's slam dunk going before 7 might be off and he might be in play. I haven't really dove in where I have a definitive opinion in my mind at least.

The dudes that I've watched a lot of that I am sold on that go early are: David Bailey, Carnell Tate, Caleb Downs, J. Love. I'd borderline bet my mortgage on all four players. So lol, when people here push back, it doesn't move me, I've seen enough to land hard on an opinion, doesn't make me of course right, but makes me a difficult one to tango with in a debate because I'll be stubborn. Syles I am almost there on. Woods, too.

Dudes I've watched a lot but I need to see the combine: Lemon, Tyson, Boston.

Dudes I've watched a lot of but can't land an opinion on: Bain.

Dudes I need to watch a lot more, haven't seen enough to have a take: The Tennessee corner, Delane, Banks, Mesidor, Reese

Dudes I've seen a lot of and don't want early: Concepcion. Faulk. Don't dislike either but too many flaws for me to take early or even top 20.
 
Listening to Keim the strong vibe he gives is he believes they want a deep threat who can take advantage of a heavy play action scheme. Screams of the top 3-4 WRs, Carnell Tate. Chris Brazzell if they get a 2nd round pick? Later in the draft, Brenen Thompson.

In a trade down in the first, maybe Concepion but he strikes me more of a YAC but has some deep threat moments.

 
I just don’t see it with Tate guys. And Ohio State is a WR factory. Smith would 100% be worth a top 5 pick. Much like Chase Young (hated that pick at the time) , Tate only put up numbers against trash teams. Never even broke 100 yards against a ranked team and this is with Smith on the opposite side taking on the #1 CB. I just don’t think Tate is going to be a number 1 in the league. And he played SO SOFT vs Miami. Seriously go take a look at his games against the top competition OSU played the last two seasons. He showed up a little against Texas I guess but the numbers are meh.
 
The word out of NY is that Harbaugh is in love with Downs. Not shocking since he's had Reed and Hamilton, plus they already some names on the front 7.
 
Last time I dealt with some naysayers about an Ohio State WR, it was Terry, so lol maybe this is a good omen for Tate. Though not as many opposed to Tate as there were against Terry. I had to spend it all day it felt defending the Terry pick when it went down.

Similar numbers to Terry's last season at Ohio State -- Tate's numbers are better. Like Terry, Tate more of a deep threat than anything else at Ohio State.

Just like it was with Terry he was trashed in part because others had the better numbers because he wasn't the featured WR. As if it's somehow easier (not harder) to put up numbers when you get less targets when you aren't the #1.

Tate's PFF numbers are good in every game except for the one against the U. 70 plus every game except against the U, that's consistently good. The poor dude only got 82 yards and a TD against Michigan but not 100 yards so damn.

It's the draft so no way to know of course. But Tate strikes me very high floor. Is he an elite #1. I got no idea. But he looks to me at a minimuim a high end 2. But more on point, if this team is looking for a deep threat (as Keim seem to suggest) it fits that need very well.
 

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