The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

I don’t want to take a guy because he’s a perceived scheme fit. We may not be running the exact same defense as the Vikings, and even if we do, we may have to change it up within a year or two if it doesn’t work with our players. Hell, we might even be getting a whole new coaching staff if this year goes south. So give me Downs or Love because they will be studs regardless of what system we are running.
Wait..it's been established that what separates the Great coaches from the Whitts is finding a way to best utilize your existing talent. And if you can't find a way to use a cerebral athletic hard hitting safety than we have bigger concerns whether it's Jones or his successor. We need blue chip talent added to this team and should add it when available
 
that’s the thing though, I don’t think there is any WR that is worth the 7th overall pick this draft. We also have Lane and Luke. We absolutely need a TE via trade or free agency too.

It’s a shame there isn’t a Teitoroa McMillan or Garrett Wilson who will be there at #7. However, given WR salaries these days, a low end WR1/high end WR2 type is worth it to me at #7, especially given the floor both Tate and Lemon seem to have

We shouldn’t think of Lane and LMC as anything more than WR4/WR5 types until they prove they are not. Doing so too early is how you run into issues
 
It’s a shame there isn’t a Teitoroa McMillan or Garrett Wilson who will be there at #7. However, given WR salaries these days, a low end WR1/high end WR2 type is worth it to me at #7, especially given the floor both Tate and Lemon seem to have

We shouldn’t think of Lane and LMC as anything more than WR4/WR5 types until they prove they are not. Doing so too early is how you run into issues

If we go strictly off of Cap Value for Position and relate that to BPA in the draft...this got me thinking...

Tier 1:
- QB
Tier 2:
- WR1 and Edge Rusher
Tier 3:
- OT (could be Left or Right), CB1, DT, or WR2
Tier 4:
- Safety, Guard, Slot WR
Tier 5:
- Off-Ball LB, TE, RB, Center, CB2
Tier 6:
- Nickel DB

That's roughly the order of Cap Value spent on top players for their position.

So that means for us a rough re-ordering (assuming they're all equal talents...which they aren't, but that's separate from this) of our options to

Top Tier of Cap/Value - Bailey/Bain/Tate
Second Tier of Cap/Value - Fano/McCoy/Delane/Mauigoa/Tyson (injury history probably puts Tyson as a WR2)
Third Tier of Cap/Value - Downs/Ioane/Lemon
Fourth Tier of Cap/Value - Styles/Love/Sadiq

...Wildcard Tier of Cap/Value - Reese

Reese's Cap/Value is scheme/usage dependent. He could potentially be in Top Tier or Fourth Tier, but we should likely split the difference and call him 2nd or 3rd tier for Cap/Value. Now none of these prospects are equivalent in talent, so it's all a bit moot, but it's fun to look at this from a completely different point of view. Yet it does point to just how premium WR is for cap value. Which makes it so frustrating that 1st round WR's bust at such a high rate. Which is probably why teams pay through the nose to land one on a second contract.

P.S. All of that said, the talents are different, and I think the need to draft real elite (blue chip) potential talent takes priority. If the team's big board based on just pure talent has Downs/Styles/Reese/Love above Bailey/Bain/Tate/Tyson/Lemon/etc, then we should draft from the first 4 guys.
 
If we go strictly off of Cap Value for Position and relate that to BPA in the draft...this got me thinking...

Tier 1:
- QB
Tier 2:
- WR1 and Edge Rusher
Tier 3:
- OT (could be Left or Right), CB1, DT, or WR2
Tier 4:
- Safety, Guard, Slot WR
Tier 5:
- Off-Ball LB, TE, RB, Center, CB2
Tier 6:
- Nickel DB

That's roughly the order of Cap Value spent on top players for their position.

So that means for us a rough re-ordering (assuming they're all equal talents...which they aren't, but that's separate from this) of our options to

Top Tier of Cap/Value - Bailey/Bain/Tate
Second Tier of Cap/Value - Fano/McCoy/Delane/Mauigoa/Tyson (injury history probably puts Tyson as a WR2)
Third Tier of Cap/Value - Downs/Ioane/Lemon
Fourth Tier of Cap/Value - Styles/Love/Sadiq

...Wildcard Tier of Cap/Value - Reese

Reese's Cap/Value is scheme/usage dependent. He could potentially be in Top Tier or Fourth Tier, but we should likely split the difference and call him 2nd or 3rd tier for Cap/Value. Now none of these prospects are equivalent in talent, so it's all a bit moot, but it's fun to look at this from a completely different point of view. Yet it does point to just how premium WR is for cap value. Which makes it so frustrating that 1st round WR's bust at such a high rate. Which is probably why teams pay through the nose to land one on a second contract.

P.S. All of that said, the talents are different, and I think the need to draft real elite (blue chip) potential talent takes priority. If the team's big board based on just pure talent has Downs/Styles/Reese/Love above Bailey/Bain/Tate/Tyson/Lemon/etc, then we should draft from the first 4 guys.

I think that's a very fair tiering. I have some differences from your tiering.

- I think you have to add NT. That's a tier 5 position to me
- I'd also break out box safety vs post safety. I think post safety is Tier 4 and box safety is Tier 5. If you look at our division, all the starting free safeties this year were either 1st round (Hooker) or 2nd round picks (Quan, Holland and Mukuba).

As a side note, nickel DB being a tier 6 position is actually why I was pissed about the Mikey Sainristil pick on ES. At the time, from memory, the only slot corner making 8 figures in terms of AAV was McDuffie. So my beef was that, at the time, you could just go sign a good slot corner in FA for $5M or $6M rather than wasting a second on one. Now, at least, the pick is justified a bit more because Sainristil is more the solid CB2 who gets INTs.

Also notice that the good drafting teams tend to find a number of (oftentimes good) starters in your Tier 4 thru Tier 6 groups in Day 3.

Finally, separately, when I take positional value using cap value and marry that with hit rate, WR has a high expected value. I did this analysis a while ago and found that the only top 15 WR pick bust between 2020-2023 was Henry Ruggs for obvious reasons. The next biggest disappointment was probably Jeudy who made a Pro Bowl last year. The league has emphasized separation and technical traits a lot more since the days of Roy Williams, Mike Williams and Charles Rogers
 
I think that's a very fair tiering. I have some differences from your tiering.

- I think you have to add NT. That's a tier 5 position to me
- I'd also break out box safety vs post safety. I think post safety is Tier 4 and box safety is Tier 5. If you look at our division, all the starting free safeties this year were either 1st round (Hooker) or 2nd round picks (Quan, Holland and Mukuba).

As a side note, nickel DB being a tier 6 position is actually why I was pissed about the Mikey Sainristil pick on ES. At the time, from memory, the only slot corner making 8 figures in terms of AAV was McDuffie. So my beef was that, at the time, you could just go sign a good slot corner in FA for $5M or $6M rather than wasting a second on one. Now, at least, the pick is justified a bit more because Sainristil is more the solid CB2 who gets INTs.

Also notice that the good drafting teams tend to find a number of (oftentimes good) starters in your Tier 4 thru Tier 6 groups in Day 3.

Finally, separately, when I take positional value using cap value and marry that with hit rate, WR has a high expected value. I did this analysis a while ago and found that the only top 15 WR pick bust between 2020-2023 was Henry Ruggs for obvious reasons. The next biggest disappointment was probably Jeudy who made a Pro Bowl last year. The league has emphasized separation and technical traits a lot more since the days of Roy Williams, Mike Williams and Charles Rogers

Hmm, interesting point about top 15 WR...maybe the league has gotten wiser.

Wait, this is a little misleading because in 2022 we drafted Jahan Dotson 1 pick after that cutoff. Obviously Rivera&Co were incompetent evaluators, but still.

Well this is funny, 2017 had 3 busts drafted in the Top 9 picks, and then both 2018 and 2019 had no WR's drafted into the mid-20's. 2019 especially is notable as loads of pro-bowl WR's were drafted in the 2nd-3rd rounds (including Terry McLaurin). I think this kind of goes into what you were saying. Teams got gunshy about WR, and have focused more on skillsets/medical. DK Metcalf had injury concerns coming out of college, he fell far.

Hmm...I wonder if none of the WR in this draft are going Top 15.
 
Fair. Last time I did a major sweep of WR rankings was a few weeks ago.

I’d personally be happy if they took Tate or Lemon at #7. Even if both end up high end WR2s like Devonta Smith, that’s still more surplus value than Downs, Love or another non premium position guy.

I am ok with them going WR.

I was a big Devonte Smith guy in that draft. That was my first comp for Tate. I think he's a cross between him and Devonte Adams stylsitically. Whewre he reminds me of Smith are the big catches down the field where he's so smooth doing so, you don't expect him to drop the ball, great catch radius, soft hands.
 
I don’t think there has been a bigger proponent than me of Aiyuk coming here. That being said, we won’t have to give up any assets for him and he is getting only a 1 year deal from me.

So, you’d have 31 year old Terry and Aiyuk on a 1 year deal next year with a 32 year old Terry in 2027. Odds are both guys are not back in 2027. So that absolutely does not preclude me from taking a WR at #7

I pointed this out a few weeks ago but, with his route running ability, Aiyuk has graded well as both an outside receiver and slot receiver.

Would give us the ability to take whoever we want to take at WR at #7

As Sikkema from PFF was talking about the other day in a PFF mock draft show, Tate, Tyson, Lemon are so close as to their tape, yet are different flavors.

I think all three are gone by 15 and then there is a drop off. Sikkema had Washington trading down with the Steelers so the Steelers can get Tate.

I think #7 fits all of these Wrs well as to value. Top 5 would feel rich.

I don't think they are in the Nabers class. Maybe not Garrett Wilson. But I think the Devonte Smith, Olave, Drake London category. We recall the draft where we knew they were going WR and partly because of the trade down, Wilson, Olave, London, J. Williams were gone. Then we are fishing in that next tier. While I like the next tier in this class. It feels like tier 1 is a notch above.

And like I mentioned, if Pierce is gone I don't love FA as to WRs. I'd take Aiyuk as a flier. I'd love Doubs but who knows where he ends up. Wandale Robinson was one of my favs in that draft lol it took a long time to feel redeemed on that but I still don't think he's a needle mover. And Terry will be 31 and at this point we don't know if he's back the year after also at this stage he could end up injury prone since many post 30 do have more injuries.

The Bears keep spoiling Caleb with young talent as to his supporting cast. This team has done the opposite for Jayden.
 
I like this kid. I like Love and Downs off the field also though. One thing I fear is a diva receiver. This kid is the exact opposite. Ayuik scares me in the lockerroom



I've watched my share of interviews of all the guys you mentioned. Agree. Love comes off like a great dude, quiet but intense and articulate -- he has autisim in a mild form but has worked through it. Downs comes off personable and a leader.

Tyson is sort of nerdy, who non stop talks about how religious he is. Tate comes off as a good dude, quiet intense, hard worker. Lemon is a bit like Terry, sort of understated personality but intense on the field.


Ohio State WR Carnell Tate has always been 'one of those dudes'​


"Carnell is one of those dudes you could always trust," Hurst said. "One of the nicest people you'll ever talk to. But when he would get on the field, he just embarrassed guys. I knew no matter how far off the corner would play, Carnell would get a step on him eventually."

Brett Goetz, who founded the Fort Lauderdale-based South Florida Express nearly two decades ago, noticed Tate's work ethic immediately. Goetz wanted another receiver and asked his players whether they had any suggestions. Inniss had faced Tate in high school -- Tate had scored a touchdown in IMG Academy's win over Inniss' American Heritage in the 2021 opener -- and recommended him.

Hurst said Tate was "straight business. ... almost like a military dude," the first to arrive for breakfast or meetings.

When SFE went on the road for tournaments, the players stayed up late playing video games. Tate asked Goetz if he could have his own room.

"He wanted to go to bed early so he could be ready and focused," Goetz said. "Carnell just always had a different maturity."

By the time Tate reeled in that decisive touchdown in the final tournament of the year, Goetz knew Tate's combination of "size, speed, route running and ability to catch the ball" would eventually make him an "elite" receiver in college -- even if it took time.

"Carnell was always great. But when you have Marv and Emeka, you've got to wait your turn," Goetz said. "Everybody is realizing holy s---, there's another guy [at Ohio State] who has great ability. ... Now he's really been able to showcase who he really is as a player."

...Because Tate had played every receiving position early in his career to fit into the Ohio State offense, he has helped Smith adjust to the Buckeyes moving him around this season.

"I've learned a lot from him," Smith said. "He's guided me ... and taught me everything I needed to know."

On the field, Tate has also elevated the Buckeyes offensively -- taking pressure off Smith and forcing defenses to pick their poison.

"You try to double me, you got to worry about him killing you on the other side of the field," Smith said. "To see him go off has been exciting. I've known what type of player he is -- and I knew this year was going to be his year, for sure."

 
Josh Downs interviewing his brother Caleb and Carnell Tate, I just starting watching it, entertaing. Tate is apparently a big Bears fan.

 
Delane, the senior corner from Silver Spring, Maryland, signed with LSU in December as a transfer from Virginia Tech, where he spent the first three years of his collegiate career. He was highly-touted as the No. 1 corner in the portal, looking for a bigger stage and a larger platform to showcase his talents.

BUT WHAT THE WORLD IS SEEING on Saturdays, as Delane shuts down opposing receivers and shoots up NFL Draft boards, is nothing new to those who know him best.

For Kyle Schmitt, head coach at Archbishop Spalding High School in Maryland, Delane was “one of the best players we’ve ever had” in a program that spits out Division I prospects and prides itself on defense. Spalding gave up just 34 points total last year.

A private Catholic school in Severn, Md., Spalding is where Delane spent his sophomore through senior years of high school. His freshman year was spent at the Landon School, an even smaller college preparatory school in Bethesda, where his older brother, Zayd, attended two years before him.

Landon was known for lacrosse, not football. Their games were played on Thursday afternoons, not on Friday nights. Offseason workouts were limited. Film sessions were lonely. That’s when Delane, a budding star committed to his craft, knew deep down a change had to be made, sooner rather than later.

“My older brother, he went to Landon and I saw how they went through the recruiting process,” Delane said. “I wanted better for myself. I had some family friends that went to Spalding and recruiting was going really well for them. I saw a great opportunity over there and great coaching. So I took that leap of faith to transfer.”

Spalding had everything Delane was looking for. A winning football culture, a staff committed to constant improvement, and competition, with future D1 players like Zakee Wheatley (Penn State) and Lavain Scruggs (Maryland) pushing him every day in practice. For Delane, it didn’t take very long to realize: this wasn’t a lacrosse school anymore.

“He was looking for a higher level of football,” Schmitt said. “I think when he came it was a bit of a football culture shock (at Spalding). He had been at a smaller school at Landon. It was a different environment.”

It was a whole new ballgame. His sophomore year at Spalding, Delane was benched. The talented cornerback – who Schmitt now categorizes as a “model” for his current and future players – was too often caught up in the opponent, his own play, and the wrong details. He learned the hard way.

“It’s almost like he had to learn that lesson,” Schmitt said. “We find, often times, that the bench is the best place to learn lessons. It’s such a credit to him and his family. He wasn’t a kid that, at the first sign of adversity, was jumping or transferring schools. He didn’t blink. The fire burned brighter and he wanted to make sure that didn’t happen again in his career.”

“It humbled me,” Delane said. “You never know it all. I learned that. Just coming in and being a sponge to all my coaches, it felt like that was a great learning lesson right there.”

MANSOOR WAS A QUICK LEARNER. Most players his age would pout after being benched, but he got motivated. Most would quit, but he went back to work. That, Schmitt says, was the sign of a mature young man who came from a great family.

From that point forward, Delane was relentless in his preparation, fearless in his play, and unwavering in his pursuit of excellence. He became a leader by example. He became someone who could Master the Mundane, an internal motto for those inside the Spalding program. He became someone who had a short memory on the field, and could be coached hard off it.

LSU, time and time again, provides its student-athletes with The Platform to Transform. Delane is now reaping the benefits, catching the attention of NFL scouts and national award voters across the country. In his debut at Clemson in primetime, Delane was targeted eight times, allowing just one reception with two PBUs, one interception for a passer rating of zero. Against Florida, he was targeted six times, allowing just 11 yards receiving with five tackles and a PBU. From that point forward, the word got out across college football: don’t throw 4’s way.

Message received. Over the last four games, he’s been targeted just five times. So don’t bother trying to reach Delane. Don’t try to call and don’t try to text. He’s on island time.

“I’m not falling asleep,” Delane said of the lack of targets. “When the time comes, like it did vs. South Carolina, I’m going to be ready.”

Of players with 200+ coverage snaps, Delane has the lowest completion % against (26.1), the fewest total yards allowed (77), the highest forced incompletion % (39.1%) and the lowest passer rating against in the country (22.9).

When looking at LSU defensive backs since 2016 with 200+ snaps through seven games, Delane still has the lowest completion percentage, fewest total receptions allowed (6), lowest passer rating (22.9) and the highest forced incompletion percentage. Consider the DBs who have walked these grounds since 2016. Mansoor Delane is one of them ones.

 
As far as the defense, lets say you sign Lloyd, Hendrickson -- then either sign a safety or corner in FA and draft Downs or Delane in the top 10. With good coaching, the defense should transform from crap to average.

The more I think about, the more I'd rather have two big impact FA signings, then 4 decent-good players.
 
Hendrickson is 31 and will be 32 during the upcoming season. If he is now coming as a free agent instead of a trade with compensation I have less of an issue with age per se, however, I am concerned with his injuries.

I liked the Tunsil trade even though he was 30 at the time because while he had missed some games they were with odd lot injuries that did not foreshadow a pattern of his body breaking down.

We need to do our research on a guy like Hendrickson in re durability to make this a good signing for the next 2-3 years.

The fact the Bengals refused to trade Hendrickson after Burrow got hurt was a joke in a way. They would have gotten more than a compensatory late #3 pick for him.

Cincinnati is a cautionary tale as an example of an organization that drafts a franchise quarterback and then over time fails to provide him with a defense that can help move the club forward.

This team hit a plateau in 2021 and seemingly has gone the other way, with defenses that are worse and worse by the year.

We have to come back in 2026 and give Daniels a defense that can allow him to go out and play a solid game and get a win without having to be Superman.
 
Hendrickson is 31 and will be 32 during the upcoming season. If he is now coming as a free agent instead of a trade with compensation I have less of an issue with age per se, however, I am concerned with his injuries.

I liked the Tunsil trade even though he was 30 at the time because while he had missed some games they were with odd lot injuries that did not foreshadow a pattern of his body breaking down.

We need to do our research on a guy like Hendrickson in re durability to make this a good signing for the next 2-3 years.

The fact the Bengals refused to trade Hendrickson after Burrow got hurt was a joke in a way. They would have gotten more than a compensatory late #3 pick for him.

Cincinnati is a cautionary tale as an example of an organization that drafts a franchise quarterback and then over time fails to provide him with a defense that can help move the club forward.

This team hit a plateau in 2021 and seemingly has gone the other way, with defenses that are worse and worse by the year.

We have to come back in 2026 and give Daniels a defense that can allow him to go out and play a solid game and get a win without having to be Superman.

The injuries last season were a one off for him as opposed to a pattern. As for injuries, I am more worried about Jalen Phillips, he's younger, but injuries are a pattern with him.
 
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Taking this post from SIP in a different thread and putting it here, as my response is just draft focused.
I am extrapolating based on those Quinn comments but it sounds like LB-S might not be priorities in FA.

Putting points on the board is a broad statement but that's what he led with -- I'd take it as WR first but don't know.

But yeah the defensive part was very specific -- an edge who can effect the QB and a CB who is sticky in coverage

Yeah, that was vague enough to imply he might want an upgraded running game too. More consistent drives, more dangerous in the red zone (if the RB is good there). We know they want Jayden more Under Center, which isn't hard at all since it almost never happened last year. I didn't realize how below league averages Kliff Kingsbury was there. The Rams were Under Center what 10x our amount? Jayden (he was hurt a lot but still), had only 4 Under Center passes. Some running backs really excel at Under Center alightments. Like Adrian Peterson was a HoFer in that alignment, but was just an average RB when he had to run out of Shotgun.

Affecting the QB is a variety of things and not just sacks. Mess up their drop, force them to move off a spot so if they want to throw a timing route, it's gotta be off platform. If he wants a messy pocket that the QB is not comfortable in, and cares more about that then splash sack plays (if there's a blitz, someone else should be able to cleanup a QB evading a messy pocket). Then maaaaaybe that puts Keldric Faulk back on the map. His bull rush has elite potential, and he's always got good balance and awareness doing it. Practically 2 gapping the bull rush so QB's can't scramble to that side.

If he wants the super sticky coverage corner...that's Jermod McCoy. Unfortunately McCoy's greatest value, Man Coverage, is not as useful in the Vikings-esque Zone Defense. But McCoy is still good in zone, and he's shockingly sticky. His catch-up acceleration to get back ontop of a WR is nuts. He doesn't just do that when the QB is looking his way either, it looks like he hates it when a WR ever "wins a rep" against him, so he kicks it into another gear to get back to smothering the WR and that's like the definition of sticky. Delane (for example) doesn't have that juice.

I wonder if this means they'd get Malachi Fields in the 3rd. Normally I'd just put him off my board as someone who can't separate, but at the Senior Bowl he was surprisingly better at separating than I thought. Especially in-breaking ones for intermediate routes. He's good at using his body/length to create space in the red zone too, it's just Notre Dame had that running game it wanted to use there instead. And possibly the routes he was asked to run at Notre Dame...he ran a lot of fades.
 

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