Official Game Thread - Week 1 - Giants @ Commanders

[RedWolf]

 

[Chris]

ESPN’s NYG reporter-

 

[Anselmheifer]

ESPN’s NYG reporter-

It would be a shame if that foot injury lingered all season.

Also, we are already one game up on the Cowboys, who continue to beat themselves. And the Eagles didn’t look unbeatable.

 

[DWinzit]

It would be a shame if that foot injury lingered all season.

Also, we are already one game up on the Cowboys, who continue to beat themselves. And the Eagles didn’t look unbeatable.

A good pop by Quan or Harris and Nabers back issues could return! (This is where I wish we still had more of an enforcer like Chinn)

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

My feeling about games going into this season is different than in other seasons. Probably different than any other season since maybe 1992, the season after we won our last superbowl.

We have been conditioned to think about opponents, how we need to fear them in some way, strength of schedule, etc. etc. etc.

This year is different to me. With a top 5 QB from last season on the team, and generally good coaching, stability on the coaching staff, and upgrades on the roster, we are the team with the target. We control our own destiny. We aren't the team other teams circle and say, "well, that's a win."

9 years of Norv, 2 years of Spurrier, 2 years of Zorn, 6 years of Jay, and 4 years of Ron combined with a decade of Vinny and Bruce plus 25 years of Snyder have basically given this fan base long lasting psychological issues.

It's ok to be rational and reasonable. But I think it's also ok to say we're the better team on Sunday and we should win the game. Not being cocky about it, and it's the NFL, "that's why the play the games." And week one's are wonky.

But we were a good team last year. Until proven otherwise, we have a generational QB. We made upgrades to the roster.

We should win. We shouldn't be Norvous.

We'll see if we do or don't. But we should win.

 

[DWinzit]

^ That's an awesome place to be! I can't wait to feel that way, but I am not there yet.

It's going to take at least another solid year and seeing the roster to get younger while adding talent for me I think

 

[Chris]

Years of forced imprisonment will do that to people.

I am not one to worry about what might happen. I have been waiting for this moment for what seems like forever while traveling through a desert of disappointment and despair. Outside of the return of Joe Gibbs and RG3s rookie season there is nothing I could point to where even some hope was calculable. You know, hope in one hand, shit in the other, see which fills up first.

No matter what happens this season I will continue to look to the future with bright, wide open eyes. (Even field goal attempts.) I will leave the pre-event analysis (by paralysis) to others and continue to throughly enjoy this ride that I never realistically expected to ever witness.

 

[skinsinparadise]

My feeling about games going into this season is different than in other seasons. Probably different than any other season since maybe 1992, the season after we won our last superbowl.

We have been conditioned to think about opponents, how we need to fear them in some way, strength of schedule, etc. etc. etc.

This year is different to me. With a top 5 QB from last season on the team, and generally good coaching, stability on the coaching staff, and upgrades on the roster, we are the team with the target. We control our own destiny. We aren't the team other teams circle and say, "well, that's a win."

9 years of Norv, 2 years of Spurrier, 2 years of Zorn, 6 years of Jay, and 4 years of Ron combined with a decade of Vinny and Bruce plus 25 years of Snyder have basically given this fan base long lasting psychological issues.

It's ok to be rational and reasonable. But I think it's also ok to say we're the better team on Sunday and we should win the game. Not being cocky about it, and it's the NFL, "that's why the play the games." And week one's are wonky.

But we were a good team last year. Until proven otherwise, we have a generational QB. We made upgrades to the roster.

We should win. We shouldn't be Norvous.

We'll see if we do or don't. But we should win.

Absolutely as far as not being nervous with one disclaimer. Am sure it doesn't shock you but I agree with Sheehan and Keim's prediction for the season. Sheehan went 11-6 but maybe 10-7. Keim went 10-7 but could to go 11 or 9 depending on what happens injury wise, etc.

I'd have gone 12-14 wins if they had the same schedule as last year. I know the idea of tough schedule is one that you typically disagree with. But heck even the dude who pushed your same point for years which is we don't know about the schedule. Sheehan, thinks this schedule is tough.

For me part of what makes the NFL unique and fun is context. I know that's the same reason why you like to say we don't know if a game is hard or not until the week of, etc. I agree to an extent. But in this age where QBs rarely get hurt. The odds are good for example when we play KC, it will be against Mahomes. etc. We will catch some breaks perhaps as to injuries but the schedule is so stacked with tough opponents that I don't expect that every week becomes like Christmas where it all breaks our way. Too many crazy things would have to happen for this schedule to turn soft IMO. But no doubt injuries, momentum, match ups are all unique week to week.

I am not intimidated by ANY opponent. But that doesn't mean I expect to win every week because context is king. The fun ride about the NFL is that it isn't a smooth every week. Every given Sunday. Weird stuff can happen especially in week 1.

As for this game I am not nervous. Do I think it ends up close? Yes. Do I think the Giants can win? Yes. I'd bet the Giants do win if Thomas plays. But am getting the impression he doesn't. So I'd bet on Washington. Not because I don't believe in Jayden or this team. Not because I think the Giants are better. But because of the same reason you in the past said its tough to guage a schedule because context changes week to week. I don't love the context for this game, this Sunday. But to the point of injuries, when Thomas is out, the Giants O line tends to be a bigger disaster.

And look even if they lose, so what? We got 17 games. We are going to lose to teams that people don't expect. We are going to beat teams that people don't expect. If you got a good team you win more than lose, which I think happens here. If context favored us every game, the NFL would be boring. When you watch the America's Game SB specials about every team -- they almost all cite some adversity moments as triggers for their run -- including the Eagles citing their 2-2 start galvanzing them.

So in short, I am not nervous about any game including when we play KC on the road. I am jazzed about all of them. But I take your point in a little different direction. I don't think any early game is do or die. When you got a good team hiccups don't mean much.

As for the start of the season, I agree with I believe it was Riddick who said this game might be the most telling one of the first game of the season. Are the Giants for real, their D line for real? or are they pretenders? And if Washington's O line can hold up against the Giants D line that bodes well for the whole season. I missed the press conference, but I heard Keim in his podcast say Kingsbury thinks this D line is the best one they will face all season.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

^ That's an awesome place to be! I can't wait to feel that way, but I am not there yet.

It's going to take at least another solid year and seeing the roster to get younger while adding talent for me I think

One thing to keep in mind, "better teams" lose ALL THE TIME. The only "better team" that seemed to never lose inexplicable games to much inferior opponents with the Belichick/Brady Patriots. They just always won the games they were supposed to win.

But other than that, just about every "better team" loses.

So I have no idea what's going to happen on Sunday. We might lose.

But we should expect to win. It's ok to expect to win. Just don't get cocky about it. Then you become a dumbass Ravens or Eagles fan.

Confidence is good. Overconfidence turns to being cocky and then the Gods, football or Zeus, is going to give you a reality bolt of lightening right in the ass.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Oh dear. I feel like I'm going to have to do the annual "schedules mean nothing" research again and show how different the results from the year were from the projected season odds for 2024.

I guess I'm going to have to put it on my calendar to do that research every year and make the post.

Anyway, I will continue to maintain there is no way to project how hard or easy a schedule is until at least October, when you can start to get an idea.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Oh dear. I feel like I'm going to have to do the annual "schedules mean nothing" research again and show how different the results from the year were from the projected season odds for 2024.

I guess I'm going to have to put it on my calendar to do that research every year and make the post.

Anyway, I will continue to maintain there is no way to project how hard or easy a schedule is until at least October, when you can start to get an idea.

The refutaton of that point is the age of Qbs and less injuries at that spot over the years. You can say for all we know Russell Wilson is going to have a bigger year than Mahomes. Or by the time we play KC, Mahomes could be benched or out with an injury. Or name that other QB in the schedule: Goff, Nix, Hurts, etc.

Last year, we had B. Young and Lamar on our schedules. We might think in advance Lamar is the bettter QB but do we really know for sure? And do we even know Lamar is playing? So how can we say Baltimore is tougher than Carolina? We can't -- but the odds are good that Baltimore will be better than Carolina. And the odds are better that Lamar would play than be out for injury.

Yeah there are always hypotheticals. Maybe we just think KC is good, they might suck. But the odds play in favor of good teams with really good QBs, stay good.

I don't see how we can both say with Jayden we are going to win a lot of games. And then also not say KC with Mahomes are going to win a lot of games.

Yes there could be a regresssion of the QB or they can get hurt. And in a series of games, the odds are that's going to happen "sometimes". But the odds are very low that it happens for most of the games.

The same reason why we are saying with Jayden expect more good than bad -- also applies equally to name that other team with a franchise QB.

 

[skinsinparadise]

^ That's an awesome place to be! I can't wait to feel that way, but I am not there yet.

It's going to take at least another solid year and seeing the roster to get younger while adding talent for me I think

I am there in the context of them being out of the desert. You always got a shot with a franchise QB and are always a real threat to make the playoffs and win the SB. We are finally as Todd McShay said before the last draft part of the big boy table.

Does it manifest this season? I think so. I wouldn't be shocked if it doesn't fully considering their schedule and I do think they need another off season to build their roster.

But I do think its a better team than last year. Aside from the schedule, my other hesitation is I don't think they've shored up their run defense -- but hopefully am wrong, will see.

But if someone put a gun to my head, I like their chances for a SB better next season than i do this season. But I think we have a fighting chance.

 

[RandyHolt]

I love how Greg Roman didnt make a 5050 run pass split a priority and run predictably into the strength of the Chef's d. He went pass happy until the end and finished 7030. Its still amazing to me how conservative OCs were in the past. As they saw QB and QB under their control usually fail.

I'd suspect Kliff comes out passing and aggressive. i always say, you can run after you pass to a sizeable lead and milk the clock, and still attain that 5050 split.

 

[HOF44]

I’ve always said year 3 is when we become legit contenders. But with JD and some breaks there is always a chance. I just think year 3+ is when we start to become dominate.

 

[HOF44]

I love how Greg Roman didnt make a 5050 run pass split a priority and run predictably into the strength of the Chef's d. He went pass happy until the end and finished 7030. Its still amazing to me how conservative OCs were in the past. As they saw QB and QB under their control usually fail.

I'd suspect Kliff comes out passing and aggressive. i always say, you can run after you pass to a sizeable lead and milk the clock, and still attain that 5050 split.

That was Gibbs MO during the glory years.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Is it me or does Russell Wilson look like he's getting shorter



That's one of their beat guys. It reminds me how much I dislike the NY sports media, they ride either really high or really low. Some exceptions to that.


Another one of course predicts a Giants win, I don't care about that, but I do care that he mentions he doesn't think Thomas is playing.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

The refutaton of that point is the age of Qbs and less injuries at that spot over the years. You can say for all we know Russell Wilson is going to have a bigger year than Mahomes. Or by the time we play KC, Mahomes could be benched or out with an injury. Or name that other QB in the schedule: Goff, Nix, Hurts, etc.

Last year, we had B. Young and Lamar on our schedules. We might think in advance Lamar is the bettter QB but do we really know for sure? And do we even know Lamar is playing? So how can we say Baltimore is tougher than Carolina? We can't -- but the odds are good that Baltimore will be better than Carolina. And the odds are better that Lamar would play than be out for injury.

Yeah there are always hypotheticals. Maybe we just think KC is good, they might suck. But the odds play in favor of good teams with really good QBs, stay good.

I don't see how we can both say with Jayden we are going to win a lot of games. And then also not say KC with Mahomes are going to win a lot of games.

Yes there could be a regresssion of the QB or they can get hurt. And in a series of games, the odds are that's going to happen "sometimes". But the odds are very low that it happens for most of the games.

The same reason why we are saying with Jayden expect more good than bad -- also applies equally to name that other team with a franchise QB.

I bucketed the differences by 0-1.5 difference is Close, 2-3 is Medium and 4+ is Far Off.

Team	Projected Wins (O/U)	Record	Actual Wins	Difference	Category
Arizona Cardinals	7.0	8-9	8	1.0	Close
Atlanta Falcons	9.5	8-9	8	1.5	Close
Baltimore Ravens	10.5	12-5	12	1.5	Close
Buffalo Bills	10.0	13-4	13	3.0	Medium
Carolina Panthers	5.5	5-12	5	0.5	Close
Chicago Bears	8.5	5-12	5	3.5	Far off
Cincinnati Bengals	10.5	9-8	9	1.5	Close
Cleveland Browns	8.5	3-14	3	5.5	Far off
Dallas Cowboys	10.0	7-10	7	3.0	Medium
Denver Broncos	5.5	10-7	10	4.5	Far off
Detroit Lions	10.5	15-2	15	4.5	Far off
Green Bay Packers	10.0	11-6	11	1.0	Close
Houston Texans	9.5	10-7	10	0.5	Close
Indianapolis Colts	8.5	8-9	8	0.5	Close
Jacksonville Jaguars	8.5	4-13	4	4.5	Far off
Kansas City Chiefs	11.5	15-2	15	3.5	Far off
Las Vegas Raiders	6.5	4-13	4	2.5	Medium
Los Angeles Chargers	9.0	11-6	11	2.0	Medium
Los Angeles Rams	8.5	10-7	10	1.5	Close
Miami Dolphins	10.0	8-9	8	2.0	Medium
Minnesota Vikings	6.5	14-3	14	7.5	Far off
New England Patriots	4.5	4-13	4	0.5	Close
New Orleans Saints	7.5	5-12	5	2.5	Medium
New York Giants	6.5	3-14	3	3.5	Far off
New York Jets	9.5	5-12	5	4.5	Far off
Philadelphia Eagles	10.5	14-3	14	3.5	Far off
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.0	10-7	10	2.0	Medium
San Francisco 49ers	11.5	6-11	6	5.5	Far off
Seattle Seahawks	7.5	10-7	10	2.5	Medium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.5	10-7	10	2.5	Medium
Tennessee Titans	6.5	3-14	3	3.5	Far off
Washington Commanders	6.5	12-5	12	5.5

Category	Count
Close	11
Medium	8
Far off	13

We have no idea what’s going to happen. Every year teams get Bettler, there is a journeyman Qb who has a good year like Geno Smith a few years ago and Sam Darnold last year, and a superstar QB who has a bad year or gets hurt. It’s entirely unpredictable.

Sheehan talked a bunch about the QBs on the schedule. But the antipode to that is having your own top 5 QB.

It’s literally impossible to predict who’s going to be good when in the NFL. The NFL is such a week to week league because of injuries and other factors.

Case in point, the Chiefs were a 3 point favorite last night, and they lost, and didn’t look exceptionally good through most of the game. Maybe they finally have a step back season. Maybe not.

I always discard the schedule factor entirely until we get into the season and then you can see who is good, and who isn’t. It’s still week to week. But by early October you get a feel for who are the real teams and who are the pretenders…

 

[skinsinparadise]

As your favorite outfit PFF, their guys explain it well, don't get hung up on projected wins especially from Vegas. They tend to be conservatively low on the high end of wins and conservatively high on the low end as to loses.

I forgot their explanation for it. But it was something about them setting the bar, not so much predicting how many wins or loses they actually have. If you notice for example on what you posted not a single team wins 12 games. That's about setting bars not becase they think its going to be one of the only seasons in NFL history where no team wins 12 games or more.

But most (not all) the projected good teams ended good.
Eagles. Ravens. Bills. Chiefs. Lions. Packers. Chargers. Steelers. Texans. Rams. Bucs.

Some were surprises. But not most
Washington. Denver. Vikings.

It's not a perfect guess. But whether its Warren Sharp, PFF, Vegas, just about every national reporter, just about every local except for Sheehan -- though Sheehan has backed off the point mostly -- most do indeed think a series of strong teams from 2024 is more likely to result in a hard 2025 schedule. ESPECIALLY if those teams have a franchise QB. For example, lets take the Dolphins. Tua isn't a franchise QB. That's a team that can easily swing either way. Heck you can argue the same about SF even though their roster is stacked, because if they have injuries is Brock Purdy going to carry them?

But what are the odds that a team with a Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen or Mahomes is going to suck? Same reason why so many are optimistic about this team here -- its about Jayden. do you think other teams fans are saying to themselves they got no idea if they'd rather face Washington or the Jets this year. Lets have the season play out because as of today its equally possible that the Jets are better or worse than Washington.

And of course, you don't know if a team hits lightening in a bottle at QB. That's ironically the narrative for Washington, Denver, Vikings. But its not most teams.

Next time we face the Giants, Jaxson Dart could be considered the next Bo Nix or whatever and they are a handful to deal with.

But the odds are for example the NFC North >> AFC South. Yeah we don't know that the Titans aren't better this season than the Lions will be. But the odds are the Lions will be better.

lol, wheres Hail Raiser he's been with me on this discussion.

 

[SkinsLife]

I predict Wash wins and covers... Effectiveness of giants D is being overrated... and Wash D is being underrated.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

PFF and Sharp and all the other folks are trying to put statistical analysis around something which doesn’t conform to statistics.

The schedule game is a useless exercise. It has always been useless, it will always be useless.

anybody who tells you otherwise is selling something.