The Jayden Daniels Tracker

[RandyHolt]

not gonna lie, I thought "OT" and "LT" were referring to Offensive and Left tackle, I'm easily confused

Back OT is not a backup offensive tackle but easily to see why anyone would think that. I think the greenhorns use that to mean back on topic and this old dog is trying to blend in with the herd. I sure hope thats what back OT means otherwise its proof i too am easily confused. Misery loves company haha.

 

[AngryChuckT]

If Caleb busts, or even just ends up as decent, and JD continues his trajectory and becomes a superstar top 2 QB, Bears fans will have to be put in a mental ward. They passed on Mahomes for Trubisky and then passed on Daniels for Caleb (though the Caleb thing is much more understandable...the Trubisky pick was just baffling).

I don't think Caleb busts. He had moments last season that says he will be a good QB in this league - I just don't think he has the ceiling JD5 does and that was what I troll my two Bears Fan friends with.

JD5 has the leadership and work ethic in spades on and off the field. If you look at his body of work on the filed and his personal life off the field, the kid is a winner in life. Grounded, goal oriented, with no compromise to standards. He is just special. A cut above his peers in my estimation.

We just have to keep him healthy.

 

[Riggo44]

JFC. McLaurin and Baker are still asking for the moon. I have almost no hope they get a deal done before the season now.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

Good luck with that. 🤣

Pretty appropriate picture, him waving to the fans. See ya, Terry, if that is true. You and Bozo Baker can try your luck elsewhere. I guess you can decide on the 18m.

It's really fascinating to see the evolution of how different players and agents (and teams for that matter) perceive and treat contracts. I do understand why players want to try to leverage value at different times, and how teams want to reward good play and keep guys happy.

This situation, there is just such a severe gap between the team's "let's give him this to keep him happy" and the player's "this is what I need to be happy" - it's enormous. I think I'm being objective when I say - if the team is offering 25m or thereabouts - they are in the right area here, the "sane" area. I get the Metcalf comp, and the saltiness on it, but acting like you have more leverage than you actually have also doesn't make tons of sense. I think one of the key issues here that we need to recognize is that there have been cases where players had very little leverage and still got a new deal.

Heck, what leverage did Deebo have when he was traded here? He was given a new deal that was a significant upgrade, right? There are a lot of cases like that. So, that may be a big part of their thinking that from our perspective is hard to keep straight.

 

[HOF44]

I thought they just guaranteed Deebo’s salary for this year. No new money.

 

[Riggo44]

I thought they just guaranteed Deebo’s salary for this year. No new money.

Salary cap is weird--no new money, but he's leaving a $12m dead cap hit next year due to void years. I don't think they extend him--having him and McLaurin potentially making $50-ish m on the cap next year would not be ideal. I don't think they'll both are back. Receiver is a definite need in the draft/FA next year.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

I thought they just guaranteed Deebo’s salary for this year. No new money.

They added 3m of incentives. I am not sure, was none of the other money new? That seems strange because how would that have changed anything? He was on his last year, wasn't he - so that would mean it was going to be guaranteed anyway as far as I understood. I don't know the old terms, I can see the new terms as 17m with 3m of incentives, which gives him up to 20m of compensation. My understanding was the 3m wasn't super hard to reach, but I don't have specifics.

About the main point, though, these cases where the players have low-leverage and the teams still say "hey we like you, let's do this" negotiations happen a fair amount, so in that sense I understand where Terry is coming from. His starting point and his apparent obstinate stance are where he is quickly losing me, not to mention his need to go public with a lot of things during the process.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

Here is an article on the change: https://athlonsports.com/nfl/washin...els-one-year-contract-turn-heads-trade-change

Not so dramatic, maybe - but the point is what leverage did Deebo have? This isn't a dramatic instance, there are others (and better), but it's a fairly regular occurrence with "your" guys - to restructure an existing contract of a high-performer to keep them happy.

The Hendrickson and McLaurin issues do stick out. It's a case where the players and teams can't come to terms, but the culture in the NFL makes this kind of negotiating acceptable right now, from my view. It's just that McL's eval of his own value is just way too off from the team's (without my opinion, that's the simple view of what's happening).

* just saw what thread this is, I won't be posting anymore about this here. Sorry about that, didn't notice this was an off-topic departure...

 

[RandyHolt]

On Topic OT and Off Topic OT departures... its all good.

It's tough to strictly talk about our awesome QB with it being very much a team game. That all said I wonder how many Chicago fans hated their pick at years end, and their old brass even snubbing even a pre-draft visit to make sure they didn't cause a temper tantrum. They just kept telling themselves but he's consensus!! and fans are still hoping they were right.

 

[HTTR]

On Topic OT and Off Topic OT departures... its all good.

It's tough to strictly talk about our awesome QB with it being very much a team game. That all said I wonder how many Chicago fans hated their pick at years end, and their old brass even snubbing even a pre-draft visit to make sure they didn't cause a temper tantrum. They just kept telling themselves but he's consensus!! and fans are still hoping they were right.

Certainly a lesson to be learned there. The red flags were everywhere and obvious, but so many fans and pundits (and apparently the Bears FO) ignored them all and made excuses for him.

 

[Conn]

Not bad for his rookie year…

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Not bad for his rookie year…

Not bad.

I do wonder, though, there is a lot of talk, both nationally and locally about the fact he could be the 5th best QB in the league. I personally don't subscribe to that. However, most people have the following 4 as the top 4 in some order:

- Patrick Mahomes
- Josh Allen
- Joe Burrow
- Lamar Jackson

Then the question is, who's #5.

Personally, I put Jalen Hurts. He doesn't get enough respect for what he does. I know the Eagles have the best OL in the league, a top 5 WR and maybe #1 RB. But he is the engine which makes that offense go. And he's QBed his team to the SB twice, and had a great game in the game they lost. So, I think he checks all the boxes.

There seems like there are a few guys right there in that next tier: Daniels, Love, Herbert, Stafford, Mayfield. You could maybe argue Goff and Purdy, but I don't think either are as good as the first set of guys I named.

Could you

Qbs on list so far:
91 - Tua (eh?)
79- Dak (I'm somewhat surprised he's on the list, but eh.)
72 - Sam Darnold. This is bananas. He stinks. Though skinsinparadise desperately wanted us to sign or trade for him a few years back...
68 - Jordan Love. I think this might be low for him. When he's healthy, he's REALLY good. The problem has been availability.
64 - Bo Nix. I think this is maybe high for him. He was good, but he had only the 18th highest QBR last season. I get that's not a be-all, end-all stat, but for 64 in the entire league? Eh? I don't think so.
59 - Matthew Stafford. I think this is about right for him. He's down 17 spots from the year prior. When healthy, he's still very good. When healthy. Still has a rocket arm, to.
56 - Justin Herbert. I think this is low for him. Though it's 19 spots higher than last year. I really like his game, and when he's on, he's great. Not the most clutch guy though.
50 - Baker Mayfield. This is low for him also. For whatever reason, I don't think Baker Baker the Touchdown Maker gets the respect he deserves.
39 - CJ Stroud. This is 19 spots down from last year when he was at 20 after his amazing rookie season. Based on year 2, I dunno, I was massively underwhelmed by year 2, so even this seems a bit high for me. He was 24th in QBR for the year.
21 - Jayden Daniels. He should have been higher than CJ Stroud was last year.

So that leaves the big 4 + Hurts as absolute locks. There are 3 other guys who I think are at least better than some of the guys already on the list, so are either top 20 or got snubbed: Goff, Murray and Purdy. I'm going to guess Goff makes it. I wouldn't put him above Daniels, but the Lions went 15-2 or whatever, and were in the championship game the year before. So just on that, I'm assuming he's on the list.

I would put Purdy and Murray both on the list, but I don't think either would be top 20. I think both are better than Tua, Dak and Sam Darnold. So we'll see how that plays out.

So at 21, Daniels will be no worst than the 8th QB on the list. And depending on if somebody gets snubbed, could be higher.

 

[HTTRDynasty]

Not bad.

I do wonder, though, there is a lot of talk, both nationally and locally about the fact he could be the 5th best QB in the league. I personally don't subscribe to that. However, most people have the following 4 as the top 4 in some order:

- Patrick Mahomes
- Josh Allen
- Joe Burrow
- Lamar Jackson

Then the question is, who's #5.

Personally, I put Jalen Hurts. He doesn't get enough respect for what he does. I know the Eagles have the best OL in the league, a top 5 WR and maybe #1 RB. But he is the engine which makes that offense go. And he's QBed his team to the SB twice, and had a great game in the game they lost. So, I think he checks all the boxes.

There seems like there are a few guys right there in that next tier: Daniels, Love, Herbert, Stafford, Mayfield. You could maybe argue Goff and Purdy, but I don't think either are as good as the first set of guys I named.

Could you

Qbs on list so far:
91 - Tua (eh?)
79- Dak (I'm somewhat surprised he's on the list, but eh.)
72 - Sam Darnold. This is bananas. He stinks. Though skinsinparadise desperately wanted us to sign or trade for him a few years back...
68 - Jordan Love. I think this might be low for him. When he's healthy, he's REALLY good. The problem has been availability.
64 - Bo Nix. I think this is maybe high for him. He was good, but he had only the 18th highest QBR last season. I get that's not a be-all, end-all stat, but for 64 in the entire league? Eh? I don't think so.
59 - Matthew Stafford. I think this is about right for him. He's down 17 spots from the year prior. When healthy, he's still very good. When healthy. Still has a rocket arm, to.
56 - Justin Herbert. I think this is low for him. Though it's 19 spots higher than last year. I really like his game, and when he's on, he's great. Not the most clutch guy though.
50 - Baker Mayfield. This is low for him also. For whatever reason, I don't think Baker Baker the Touchdown Maker gets the respect he deserves.
39 - CJ Stroud. This is 19 spots down from last year when he was at 20 after his amazing rookie season. Based on year 2, I dunno, I was massively underwhelmed by year 2, so even this seems a bit high for me. He was 24th in QBR for the year.
21 - Jayden Daniels. He should have been higher than CJ Stroud was last year.

So that leaves the big 4 + Hurts as absolute locks. There are 3 other guys who I think are at least better than some of the guys already on the list, so are either top 20 or got snubbed: Goff, Murray and Purdy. I'm going to guess Goff makes it. I wouldn't put him above Daniels, but the Lions went 15-2 or whatever, and were in the championship game the year before. So just on that, I'm assuming he's on the list.

I would put Purdy and Murray both on the list, but I don't think either would be top 20. I think both are better than Tua, Dak and Sam Darnold. So we'll see how that plays out.

So at 21, Daniels will be no worst than the 8th QB on the list. And depending on if somebody gets snubbed, could be higher.

So you think Hurts would have taken the Commanders as far last year as Daniels did? And you think Daniels wouldn’t have won the SB with the Eagles roster last year? This is the problem with using team success to rank individual players.

I don’t have the time right now to get into why I think Hurts is flawed as a top QB, but here’s a recent video breakdown that pretty much mirrors my thoughts on Hurts, and does a good job explaining why coaches and FO execs aren’t as high on Hurts as his team success would lead some to believe they should be:

 

[Conn]

Daniels is a better QB than Hurts and the delta between them will only continue to grow, but on a list like this, after last year, Hurts is going to rank higher among his peers. It is what it is, respect to him

 

[Anselmheifer]

Daniels should be higher than 21. He might have been the best player in the NFC last season. He dragged a less than mediocre team, with a terrible defense, to within a game of the SB. And his advanced metrics were crazy good.

How many players in the NFC would you take over Daniels, if you were starting a franchise. You can eliminate age from that equation, and I still think it is nobody.

 

[Discobob]

Daniels should be higher than 21. He might have been the best player in the NFC last season. He dragged a less than mediocre team, with a terrible defense, to within a game of the SB. And his advanced metrics were crazy good.

How many players in the NFC would you take over Daniels, if you were starting a franchise. You can eliminate age from that equation, and I still think it is nobody.

100% agree

Only caveat being that they are clearly not giving QB the relative positional advantage that it truly has, or the top 20 spots would almost be only QBs!

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

So you think Hurts would have taken the Commanders as far last year as Daniels did? And you think Daniels wouldn’t have won the SB with the Eagles roster last year? This is the problem with using team success to rank individual players.

I don’t have the time right now to get into why I think Hurts is flawed as a top QB, but here’s a recent video breakdown that pretty much mirrors my thoughts on Hurts, and does a good job explaining why coaches and FO execs aren’t as high on Hurts as his team success would lead some to believe they should be:

I dunno what would happen if they flipped spots.

What I do know is Hurts is very good.

There were all these people who in the 70s who thought anybody could play QB for the Steelers because that team was stacked, defensively, offensively, it is littered with HOF players.

And Terry Bradshaw was the guy who pulled the trigger and made it all work. And there is something to that. Is he the best QB of all time? No. But he has 4 rings and on the HOF because he was the right guy in the right place at the right time and could orchestrate the success.

I see Hurts in a similar way.

And Jayden needs to stack at least 2 seasons together before you can put him ahead of Hurts in my opinion.

I’d much prefer to have JD5 than Hurts long term. But I think Hurts gets more criticism than he earns.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Daniels should be higher than 21. He might have been the best player in the NFC last season. He dragged a less than mediocre team, with a terrible defense, to within a game of the SB. And his advanced metrics were crazy good.

How many players in the NFC would you take over Daniels, if you were starting a franchise. You can eliminate age from that equation, and I still think it is nobody.

I agree he’s low. But I think that’s just a rookie thing. I doubt there are any rookies higher than JD5. I doubt if you go back through the list through time you would see many, if any, rookies higher than 20.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Daniels is a better QB than Hurts and the delta between them will only continue to grow, but on a list like this, after last year, Hurts is going to rank higher among his peers. It is what it is, respect to him

Agree. I also think when you’ve played in 2 SBs, won one and played great in the other, that moves you up a peg or two. Hurts seems to be awfully clutch if nothing else.

With any luck, next year JD( has the same success and it’s even more clear he’s a top 5 guy with the big 4.

 

[HTTRDynasty]

I dunno what would happen if they flipped spots.

What I do know is Hurts is very good.

There were all these people who in the 70s who thought anybody could play QB for the Steelers because that team was stacked, defensively, offensively, it is littered with HOF players.

And Terry Bradshaw was the guy who pulled the trigger and made it all work. And there is something to that. Is he the best QB of all time? No. But he has 4 rings and on the HOF because he was the right guy in the right place at the right time and could orchestrate the success.

I see Hurts in a similar way.

And Jayden needs to stack at least 2 seasons together before you can put him ahead of Hurts in my opinion.

I’d much prefer to have JD5 than Hurts long term. But I think Hurts gets more criticism than he earns.

He’s a solid QB in an incredibly good situation. Eagles are going to have 9 or 10 players in the top 100 (and the guys that didn’t make it, like Smith and Goedert, would easily be the 2nd best weapon if they were on the Commanders last year). I find it hard to believe that you don’t think there are at least 7-8 QBs who could have similar or better success than Hurts given the situation he’s in.

How many QBs would advance to the next round after playing a game like this?

I agree he’s low. But I think that’s just a rookie thing. I doubt there are any rookies higher than JD5. I doubt if you go back through the list through time you would see many, if any, rookies higher than 20.

I’m pretty sure RGIII finished 15th. Stroud finished 20th last year. Players may just have sophomore slump fatigue.