The 2025 Draft Thread

prodigy said:
I'm not being serious, no need to take me seriously. most "what if" scenarios are just meant to lack deep, critical thinking.
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Well, I think it's safe to say at this point that the IOL group is the deepest of any it looks absolutely loaded, though I've got more positions to look at. Going over the group now, Jonah Savaiinaea is likely my #1 OG with Tate Ratledge #2 - I've been asked a good Commanders fit a couple times now and although I've got a long ways to go, I'd peg Marcus Mbow as someone I'd be targeting early with our limited picks with Jackson Slater a potential mid round gem. The LSU IOL dudes are very good. Jacob Bayer very versatile OG/OC type and Caleb Rogers good value midrounds. Mbow IMHO is being underrated and would offer us great flexability along the OL.
 
skinsinparadise said:
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Really, really hope we can get him. I admit I am biased as a VT fan, but I can also say he had to run behind an absolute crapshow of an OL the two season's he played there and still put up awesome numbers. His game against BC was record setting. He also could absolutely be a weapon on KO with the new rules.
 
Hokieskin said:
Really, really hope we can get him. I admit I am biased as a VT fan, but I can also say he had to run behind an absolute crapshow of an OL the two season's he played there and still put up awesome numbers. His game against BC was record setting. He also could absolutely be a weapon on KO with the new rules.
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Rated as a day 3 pick. Would love to get him there
 
DogofWar1 said:
I do think we need to be cautious at this point of a trade for Hendrickson. We are approaching the point where we will be mortgaging our future with too many picks thrown at him.

Generally my view on picks is
1st/2nd round - immediate impact players ideally
3rd round - somewhere between impact and high probability developmental starters
4th round - high probability developmental starters.

5th onward mostly you have to choose physically imperfect technically sound individuals or physical specimens who have no idea how to actually play football who you hope you can teach how to play.

I don't sweat 5th-7th much at all. Sure it's fun to have 6 picks in 5-7 and when you hit it's awesome, but as a practical matter, it's throwing darts at increasing levels of blindness.

1st-4th tho, is a different story. Esp top 100 picks (so 1-3).

Jayden's cap hit is gonna smack us roughly around 2029ish, assuming we extend before '27 and it's a bit backloaded. Ideally at that point you have a nice conveyer belt of young talent on rookie deals that is taking on starting spots. Something like 3-4 starters from guys in each of years 3-4 of rookie deals, and something like 1-2 from guys in each og years 1-2, giving you between 8-12 starters (of the roughly 28 or so "starter" players you'll field) on rookie deals. You probably pay top dollar for an LT, WR1, Edge, CB1, and then maybe 1 or 2 of TE/RB/DT/MIKE/S but after that you're outta money.

To maintain that kind of conveyer belt of guys tho you need top 100 picks.

In fairness, 2025 picks won't be on rookie deals anymore once Jayden's hits are smacking us, and I think 2026 is the last year we can get away with sending picks away, since 2026 draft picks will be done with their rookie deals following 2029. They are kind of the "first" year where you'd want to hit on a bunch of guys if we assume 2029 Jayden cap hit is large, with them in their 4th year.

But every year after 2026 you really gotta stock up on picks and hit, hit, hit. 2027 guys on deals thru '30, and by that point we will be in cap...well at least purgatory.

The concern for moving picks this year and next year, is that the fewer picks we have now, the more we'll have to fill holes with FAs in 2027/28/29, which sort of is a self-fulfilling situation. You need talent to maintain, and FA is rarely gonna be enough in terms of talent, so you're either doing what we're doing this year, that is, trading for higher tier talent, or drafting, which takes time and is a gamble. And of course the higher tier FAs are gonna want larger and longer deals with more guaranteed money that could, once we hit 2027/28, extend cap hits and dead money into 2030/31.

So I'm good at the moment, but also wary. Moving a 2 and 4 in 26 for Tunsil is "fine" for the return, but could also have some longer term consequences 4-5 years down the road.


Now this does imo make a trade back from 29 a little more likely, maybe moving back and grabbing, say a 3rd this year and a 4th next year, and given some of the talent tiers, that may make sense for us (like if only say, 6 of the 12ish edge guys in the top 45 are gone, we can probably hop back a few spots and still get a great guy).
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Yep, this is the truth in a nutshell and there is one heavy caveat too.

Even if you always draft, draft, draft - and even if you have top-100 picks and you are decent at picking players... there is no guarantee of success there!

You need to pick the right people and you need to make the right moves. At least, that is my thought.

I think BPA is so strong because you have some inherent value in the player. If you do not do BPA, and you draft for need, in the long-term that player has a lot more risk of losing value with respect to where he was drafted. So, in the end, it can be viewed as a net-negative.

The timing of FA, coming over a month before the draft, and then the timing of training camp and everything else is also a major factor here too; if the draft came first, some of the mechanics may be different.

I have the exact same reservations about Tunsil. Even when a really good player is available, if you are truly building for the future, you may need to pass depending on the circumstances. THAT reality has to be admitted. I don't think the Tunsil trade itself is that kind of issue, but further trades like it seem like they would DEFINITELY do it. I would be pretty hesitant now to recommend giving up picks in 2025 or 2026. Chains of 1-year contracts cannot work at the scale we have needed them to this point; a good percentage must be replaced by drafted talent to begin the "conveyor belt" sooner rather than later.
 
Odds are a good edge will be there at 29. If not a trade down unless a player like Newton did last year drops.
 
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Meeting with Marks three times is interesting, in that he is a RB. Do we know the other two playets they have met three times?
 
I believe we end up with both S Billy Bowman Jr. and RB Woody Marks end up on our roster. Seems like AP loves these guys. They fit.
 
Gooseneck said:
Odds are a good edge will be there at 29. If not a trade down unless a player like Newton did last year drops.
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If one of the higher ranked, first tier ones are there at #29, I agree. If the second tier EDGEs are left they may trade back into the early 2nd and pick up a 3rd and more.
 
Comp picks, maybe. Keeps going on this track, we are taking edge for sure early.

 
Forget to put Chaz Chambliss Georgia in the OLB group. He could be a sleeper situational pass rush type.
 
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RWJ said:
My favorite EDGE is BC's Donovan Ezeriuaka. Seems like AP/DQ will probably want to bigger at EDGE.
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I got a a bunch, Ezeriuals among them. They might got for a dude who isn't that big. Not sure now. They signed some run stuffers. So I go back and forth.

I am guessing Sawyer drops to the third or maybe even 4th considering his short arms. 31.5 length. Few succeed at that level including our own Ryan Anderson back in the day. Too bad because he was a productive college player, high intangibles. etc.
 
Feels like they have put a lot of free agent juice into DT. Makes me feel like that would be a hard sell for the draft. My guess is DE, RB, or maybe WR which probably means it will be LB or G.
 
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