BGO Blind Pig: The Calm (?) Before the Storm

Boone

Boone

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The guys share some final unscripted thoughts heading into the most exciting 3 days Washington football fans have had to look forward to in decades. J.J. McCarthy finally gets some well-deserved love, and lots more great draft-related discussion. #RaiseHail

 
Kudos to all of you for all the episodes. I think I’ve watched them all this year.
John
Derek
Bob
Chris
Mark
Paul

Great team work on the mock last week. I’ve learned a lot from each of you.

I truly believe you guys would be better than some of the GM’s in the league when picking players. Part of that is the information that is available today for sure, but also the teamwork that you guys show. Being able to allow the group to make the best decision regardless of personal preference.

I’m listening to this one now.
 
My nonspecific draft plan:

Round 1: Pick the right QB who turns out to be a all pro maybe not this year but for ten years.
Round 1: Trade the two from Chicago and the three from San Francisco to get a left tackle who can be a cornerstone of this line.
That leaves us with the standard 7 draft picks total.
Round 2: Slight trade down for picks in 2025 (future draft picks usually net a premium.
Round 2: - 7: Best player available.

Not so hard.
 
While I will understand why they would trade up to grab a left tackle, I hope it's not necessary. Best case scenario is there is still a great one sitting there (Suamataia would fit the bill nicely). This draft could change the face of the franchise and we need every pick so a trade up is something I hope we avoid.
 
I don't disagree. It'd be amazing if Peters is as good as we hope he is for him to be able to shop with two seconds and three thirds. If he's really good that could be four high quality starters down the road. On the other hand, if you see an tackle that you can get (let's say around 15 for the price I suggested we pay) who you think is at that Chris Samuels, Jim Lachey, Trent Williams level... then I would rather go for the "sure" top left tackle. If you think at fifteen through the end of the first that the tackles are kind of lumped all at the same level... then yeah, I think you are right. I think you wait to see how the draft falls.

But, it seems to me that they basically said to everyone based on their preseason moves... We are getting our QB and left tackle in the draft and if you are going to do that then get the best one you can because everyone may try to jump you to get to that player even if one falls because they know that player will never get past you. That suggests we be more proactive. I'd rather be the jumper than the jumped.
 
I’ve always said they’re not drafting for 2024.

What’s everyone gonna do if Joe Alt is the pick at 2?
 
More picks is better - no matter when they are drafting for. But we’ve created a need at LT they probably can’t delay filling so it is what it is…
 
Well done, gents. Sorry I missed out!

What I had intended to do last night was offer my take on why I thought the team either will or will not draft one of the three guys at #2. Not a long list of things—that’s too easy after the months of over-analysis—one thing. The main thing.

Jayden Daniels

If they DO … it’s because he could be Superman. He runs like a cheetah and is a calm accurate passer with a quicksilver release. His ridiculous improvement arc in college shows he can and will learn and improve, and his apparent work ethic suggests he can continue to improve at the next level. You don’t pass on that with the #2 overall pick.

If they DON’T … it’s because his Chris-like build could be kryptonite.

Drake Maye

If they DO … it’s because he’s what an NFL QB is supposed to look like—from the frame to the hose—and makes those wow throws that translate to the next level. And oh yeah apparently he’s a total competitive freak. All this despite being just 21, losing his senior year in HS to Covid and starting only two years in college with little surrounding talent and changing coaches.

If they DON’T … it’s because all the NFL analysts, QB gurus and internet geniuses combined can’t figure out why the fuck he scatters passes too often. There is apparently no one correctable flaw causing it, which is a huge red flag as it may not BE correctable. End of the day he might turn out to be a sawed-off shotgun instead of a reliable, precision shooting instrument you'd be comfortable going into battle with.

J.J. McCarthy

If they DO … it’s because he wears a Golden Helmet. J.J. has the measurables just fine, thank you very much. He also has the “it” in terms of leadership and team-first mentality. The new regime has been telling us since Peters was hired that’s what they’re looking for. We should believe them.

If then DON’T … it’s because despite playing well in a pro-style offense against top competition (both on game day and in daily practice), the sample size of his tape is scary small in context of a #2 overall pick. NFL defensive coordinators WILL find his flaws/weaknesses—there is precious little hard evidence on tape as to how/whether he can zig once the zag is gone.
 
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Great episode, guys. Enjoyed listening a bunch.

The 2nd overall pick scares the hell out of me. Between Arrington, Griffin, and Young, there are plenty of scars. To a certain extent, those guys all felt like maybe the easy picks at #2 - the picks where you didn't have to do a lot of work to justify their value at that spot and the picks where likely 90 percent of other front offices would have likely done the same thing. Daniels has a bit of that going for him too (easy pick on the surface). In some regards, he is silly to pass on, but also brings enough concern forward where maybe you hesitate. I will say that his name being called tonight is honestly the scenario that will leave a pit in the stomach type feeling within me. Just where I am at 23 hours or so before the pick...
 
Drafting in 2024 is drafting for ‘25, ‘26, etc, no? Development and all taken into consideration. They absolutely have to go QB for a variety of reasons, even if they allow weeks of prep to start the pick.

Rolling with Mariotta in a QB rich draft in order to select the best OT? Uh, no. Big no. Huge no. Massive no. If an OT they really like is within their grasp at what they determine a fair cost, they should do so 10/10.
 
Canadian Hog said:
Great episode, guys. Enjoyed listening a bunch.

The 2nd overall pick scares the hell out of me. Between Arrington, Griffin, and Young, there are plenty of scars. To a certain extent, those guys all felt like maybe the easy picks at #2 - the picks where you didn't have to do a lot of work to justify their value at that spot and the picks where likely 90 percent of other front offices would have likely done the same thing. Daniels has a bit of that going for him too (easy pick on the surface). In some regards, he is silly to pass on, but also brings enough concern forward where maybe you hesitate. I will say that his name being called tonight is honestly the scenario that will leave a pit in the stomach type feeling within me. Just where I am at 23 hours or so before the pick...
Click to expand...

Move your clocks back 10 hours, Paul. 😉
 
Listened to the podcast, sounds like my “out there” plan is mainstream 😂
 
Chris said:
Drafting in 2024 is drafting for ‘25, ‘26, etc, no? Development and all taken into consideration. They absolutely have to go QB for a variety of reasons, even if they allow weeks of prep to start the pick.

Rolling with Mariotta in a QB rich draft in order to select the best OT? Uh, no. Big no. Huge no. Massive no. If an OT they really like is within their grasp at what they determine a fair cost, they should do so 10/10.
Click to expand...


very fair argument.

We are all just going nuts assuming we know what they're thinking when in reality we dont. People have feelings, and based on their relationships with people, are drawing conclusions, but it's all speculation.


One thing we do know is that they have invested quite a bit in analytics. I think we need to keep that in mind when we're trying to figure out their plan.

Another thing I haven't considered, but Ben Standig mentioned it on the Junkies this morning, and it is a really sound thought process. We're all assuming they're going to be looking to trade back up into the first round, but what if it's the opposite? What if they don't view any of the guys that would be available in the 20s to be a day 1 stud, and they have their concerns about putting that guy in front of a rookie QB? So what if they ultimately trade BACK in the 2nd round, and add a future pick, still getting a serviceable OT, or other position of better value, and kick the LT of the future plan a year down the road.

12 hours....
12 hours
12....
 
I think one of the interesting things that was brought up in the pod is that with the expected run on tackles in the first round, we may just see a glut of tackles hit the secondary free agent market after the draft. Now, that's not something to count on, but it is interesting.
 
I don't think it's ALL speculation. Nothing is 100% certain - technically - but I think in reality there is zero chance that we aren't drafting a QB with our earliest pick. I think the team itself has signaled that much. Beyond that, yeah, who knows - but I think that one aspect is set in stone.
 
SilentThreat said:
I’ve always said they’re not drafting for 2024.

What’s everyone gonna do if Joe Alt is the pick at 2?
Click to expand...

I'm fine with it, I think he's a better shot at a 10 year pro bowl player than selecting a QB. However, if we had Howell I'd put that as a possibility, since we don't, I think that it goes to zero chance it happens.

My gut say they go with Maye (sits for half a season at minimum), my brain says Daniels (immediate impact)
 
I bet if they go with Maye and Daniels starts game 1 and Maye sits for half the season, half of ESPN and a fair portion of the Washington fan base will go crazy and declare how we screwed up the draft. There might be a few voices of calm that invoke other QBs who sat and benefited, but everyone will wring their hands and bemoan how we drafted a guy at number 2 who wasn't good enough to start and wasn't even good enough to challenge a guy like Mariota.
 
Probably. Personally - I'm a little skeptical that Marcus Mariota beats out any of our likely QB choices for the starting role. Mariota is a career backup for a reason. I could be horribly wrong, but I expect a rookie starter in Week 1, no matter who it is we draft.
 
Boone said:
Probably. Personally - I'm a little skeptical that Marcus Mariota beats out any of our likely QB choices for the starting role. Mariota is a career backup for a reason. I could be horribly wrong, but I expect a rookie starter in Week 1, no matter who it is we draft.
Click to expand...
Good episode! I agree. They signed Mariota for a reason as a vet backup. And not an "upper tier backup/fringe starter" like Brisett or Minshew types. I expect the draft qb to start right away.
 
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