BGO Blind Pig: The QB Decision

[SkinsOrlando]

What if all three of these are a reach at 2, I think it was Neo who early on alluded to how the top of the draft is too QB centric now. I don't disagree, in my perfect crazy world in my head we'd have kept Howell and drafted Alt to be our anchor at LT for the next decade. Again, I'm not a college football guy nor did I watch anything really than a few snippets of rivalry games and then the playoffs but I think it deserves a thought.

 

[Chris]

My ultimate vote is not unlike most of mine in the past presidential elections…

Which one do I dislike the least. 😎

 

[Neophyte]

Only quibble? In terms of bust potential - I think it’s hard to argue that Daniels has the highest current basement but has a bigger bust potential than Maye - who has a lot to prove.

I can see that. And you might be right.

I based my rankings on the idea that so much of Daniels' floor is based on his ability to make things happen with his feet and his gaudy senior stat line at LSU. Yeah, he is a brilliant runner but that might a bigger problem for him in the NFL than it is asset if he can't learn to protect himself. His stats at LSU were absolutely built against tougher opposition than Maye's but he also had a massive advantage in terms of personnel around him - throwing to receivers who were often running wide open while he stood in a clean pocket with acres of space. Daniels won the Heisman and was First Team All-American, while playing for a contending team in the top college conference. In short, he now labors under huge expectations to do something in the NFL sooner rather than later.

Maye has more to prove but he is also already being given more time to prove it by the pundits.

 

[burgold]

Great podcast. Enjoyed the entire discussion.

 

[Boone]

Thanks burgold - always welcome to join us anytime. It was a good and lively discussion, a lot of fun

 

[Boone]

Just an aside, which surprisingly did not come up on the pod.... what role IF ANY will the preferences of Kliff Kingsbury play in which guy they land on?

I have to believe that while I'm sure he is providing input, that it's going to sway the ultimate decision minimally. It is worth noting though, that if you were looking to find a QB to run the type of offense Kingsbury has gravitated towards in the past, you could not likely find someone more suited for it than a kid like Jayden Daniels.

That won't be close to the reason they select Daniels if that in fact occurs - but it could be a very fortuitous combination of guys being at the right place at the right time.

 

[Chris]

I have no idea who his preference is but he’d better design a scheme that plays to that players strengths.

(Or should I say…his superpowers?) 😉

 

[burgold]

Just an aside, which surprisingly did not come up on the pod.... what role IF ANY will the preferences of Kliff Kingsbury play in which guy they land on?

I have to believe that while I'm sure he is providing input, that it's going to sway the ultimate decision minimally. It is worth noting though, that if you were looking to find a QB to run the type of offense Kingsbury has gravitated towards in the past, you could not likely find someone more suited for it than a kid like Jayden Daniels.

That won't be close to the reason they select Daniels if that in fact occurs - but it could be a very fortuitous combination of guys being at the right place at the right time.

Just to add (and I probably have said a variation of this before), Washington has the luxury of picking someone to fit the system they imagine versus blend in with the players on the roster. I remember when Shanahan came in and was determined to install a 3-4 defense, but ignored the fact that we had no nose tackle. For years, we played with talent best suited to a 4-3 and suffered because we forced the scheme on players who couldn't fit the mold. We would put Orakpo and Kerrigan into coverage because they were technically linebackers. We ignored the needs of the position.

Rivera left the cabinet so bare that with the exception of wide receiver and defensive tackle, Washington can remake the offense or defense any way they want. They don't need to immediately scheme to player, but can analyze the player to fit the scheme they daydream about developing. Now, after the draft that does change. They need to develop a short term plan for success while keeping the long term vision active. They have to make an in season accommodation that maximizes the talent we have. For example, maybe because of a rookie Qb and a still unsettled oline, you design an offense that's run heavy and specializes in quick passes even though you are assembling a team that will eventually be pass heavy and spread out.

Regardless, the benefit of being not one piece away is that you can truly assemble a team tailored to what you want. This team is not 75% set with almost all roster positions locked up for years to come. For those of us who love a blank canvas, that's exciting. For players, it's a shot across the bough that they better not be complacent because no roster position and no playing time is guarenteed. It's also scary for some players that looked promising. Maybe Kingsbury values wiggle and speed over power. If so, a guy like Chris Rodriguez must look at all the backs we signed and feel very unsettled.

To me, that's a good thing. No player on this team should feel comfortable. No one's deserves to feel like their job is safe. Frankly, that even includes stars like McLaurin who will need to show that he can be the alpha receiver.

 

[DieselPwr44]

IMO, this is your best pod to date. Loved the back and forth amongst the group.

Daniels is the flashy,right now prospect.
Maye is the "so much potential" guy and also is the "That looks like an NFL Qb" in appearance,when he walks into the room.

But to be honest with you, I want Reno Hightower (what movie fellas?)....aka JJ McCarthy.
On Sheehan's pod the other day, Kevin had Doc Walker on and I know Doc is a lot of bluster and show but he did make a valid point when he said "I know he was coached hard by an actual NFL coach." And to me...he's right and it's something to consider when evaluating.
The run first scheme,under center offense he came from, Doc's other point that he had to make good on third downs to keep drives alive in some crucial situations is very appealing to me also.I also like the alpha attitude/competitor demeanor.

And the thing that brother Chris has failed to mention? He's a red head! I seem to remember the Redskins having pretty good luck with a red headed QB back in the day.

Now the thing is, if the determination winds up being that they believe JJ can play the QB position better than the others, do they risk a trade down to still get him while compiling more draft capital?
Or is player evaluation and ranking totally skewed between NFL front offices and the media/general public? I mean how many years have we followed one mock after another,thinking we know a consensus, and then get to draft day and have our minds blown by where the players actually went?

I've lost count over the years as I am sure you all have.

Great pod fellas! Keep 'em coming!

 

[Chris]

IMO, this is your best pod to date. Loved the back and forth amongst the group.

Daniels is the flashy,right now prospect.
Maye is the "so much potential" guy and also is the "That looks like an NFL Qb" in appearance,when he walks into the room.

But to be honest with you, I want Reno Hightower (what movie fellas?)....aka JJ McCarthy.
On Sheehan's pod the other day, Kevin had Doc Walker on and I know Doc is a lot of bluster and show but he did make a valid point when he said "I know he was coached hard by an actual NFL coach." And to me...he's right and it's something to consider when evaluating.
The run first scheme,under center offense he came from, Doc's other point that he had to make good on third downs to keep drives alive in some crucial situations is very appealing to me also.I also like the alpha attitude/competitor demeanor.

And the thing that brother Chris has failed to mention? He's a red head! I seem to remember the Redskins having pretty good luck with a red headed QB back in the day.

Now the thing is, if the determination winds up being that they believe JJ can play the QB position better than the others, do they risk a trade down to still get him while compiling more draft capital?
Or is player evaluation and ranking totally skewed between NFL front offices and the media/general public? I mean how many years have we followed one mock after another,thinking we know a consensus, and then get to draft day and have our minds blown by where the players actually went?

I've lost count over the years as I am sure you all have.

Great pod fellas! Keep 'em coming!

I knew I liked you. 🤣

 

[Canadian Hog]

Great job SilentThreat, Boone, Om, and Neophyte!

Great way to spend a Friday evening listening.

My Take:
What I want primarily in an NFL QB is

a) be a great processor on the field and make great decisions quickly
b) accuracy

The problem here is that Daniels seems like the better processor and Maye is the more accurate QB.

So, the next question becomes which of those two traits is more fixable by an NFL coaching staff? There is no perfect prospect - all these guys will need to be moulded to a certain extent and how they are handled often largely factors into their success in the NFL. I personally think the accuracy piece is the more fixable trait. The between the ears stuff...the light is just on for some, while it flickers here and there for others.

As a result, I think Daniels might be the guy I want to draft...and I really emphasize the word "might" because I love The Drake as well...see what I did there, Kel Varnsen? Who will we draft? Drake Maye...because Adam Peters is a much smarter man than I am and Josh Harris has often spoken about building something that will sustain itself for a long period of time. Maye feels more like a guy that will have a long, more sustainable career in the NFL compared to Jayden.

 

[Chris]

Accuracy stats over the past 2 seasons-

Daniels

Maye

 

[Knightingale]

I don't get the RG3 comparisons (I've seen that comp a lot). Other than the speed and legs, there is no comparing the two. Daniels is a pure, accurate passer, something Griffin never was. He can read a defense, something Griffin could never do. And I don't get the sense he's the utter diva Griffin was - he seems very well-liked and respected by his teammates.

A better comp I think is Jalen Hurts. I've also heard Lamar Jackson, although a) Daniels will have to keep his weight up to his current 210+ to keep that comp from being laughable, and Daniels is already a better passer than Jackson will ever be imho.

And Daniels wouldn't be a Snyder move - trading the farm to go up and get Caleb Williams would be.

I stand corrected on the Snyder move! 😂
That is exactly right.

The RGIII thing, Silent nailed it. It’s not his play style, it’s the running. Maybe it’s just the trauma of how 2012 season ended, but that’s my fear. The fear that this ends in disastrous injury because he won’t learn to protect himself and we’re back looking for a new QB when his career flames out in 2 or 3 years, just as someone like Maye is hitting their ceiling.

The fear with Maye is… will he ever reach that ceiling? Will he be given the time to?

Jay Gruden was on the Keim podcast the other day, and he intimated that the QB turnover cycle in the NFL was too fast and that generally QBs don’t ’get it’ till year 3. That we mark young QBs as busts far too quickly because teams are far too desperate to find that next Mahomes. I tend to agree. Howell is a case in point. I think with more care in how the offense was put together and a little patience, he could have been a viable starter for us long term and Neo’s argument for keeping him was a good one.

But we are where we are now, and I’m still wildly indecisive on who to take. I’d hope that for Peters and co the answer is more clear since they’ve got sooooo much more info to work with.

 

[Knightingale]

Accuracy stats over the past 2 seasons-

Daniels

View attachment 7474

Maye

View attachment 7475

Wow, Maye had A LOT in comparison to Daniels. 930+ attempts to 700+ over the past 2years. Is that over more games?
I’m not an expert on College football, but I know they were in different conferences, does that change the number of games they play?

Also, a lot of the buzz I hear is that Daniels had a far far better supporting cast than Maye. Especially the WRs. So i have to wonder about how that impacts stats in regards accuracy. How many of Maye’s throws were dropped? Or how did any deficient O line pressure have an effect?

These are all things that I’m sure Peters scouts and talent evaluators are looking in to.

 

[Chris]

Wow, Maye had A LOT in comparison to Daniels. 930+ attempts to 700+ over the past 2years. Is that over more games?
I’m not an expert on College football, but I know they were in different conferences, does that change the number of games they play?

Also, a lot of the buzz I hear is that Daniels had a far far better supporting cast than Maye. Especially the WRs. So i have to wonder about how that impacts stats in regards accuracy. How many of Maye’s throws were dropped? Or how did any deficient O line pressure have an effect?

These are all things that I’m sure Peters scouts and talent evaluators are looking in to.

Both QBs played 12 games in 2023. The surrounding casts certainly were a factor that gave Daniels an advantage, no doubt. It is also fair to point out that Daniels faced a much higher level of competition in the conference he played in than Maye did.

My take is that Maye does not win any accuracy argument between the two. I have yet to see any analysis that results in Maye being considered the more accurate thrower of the football between the two. If Maye were a polished passer and without serious concerns about his throwing mechanics, he would be an easy choice over Daniels for a variety of reasons. The main concern is that he currently is not.

With Daniels one has to hope that he can learn to protect himself and survive in the NFL physically. Can he? Will he?

With Maye one has to hope that he can improve the fundamental flaws in his mechanics. Can he? Will he?

Only a Magic 8 Ball can currently know that answer to those billion dollar questions.

 

[Bulldog]

Maye is also almost 3 years younger. At the same time in his development, Daniels didn't look like a first round pick at all. In fact didn't Peters at one time before 2023 have Daniels as a third to fourth round selection?

In the back of my mind I am wondering if the quarterback that comes out and is most ready to play in 2024 is not necessarily the one that will be better long-term. That is the real question that needs to be answered by the front office.

And that decision tells us something about the front office itself - how confident are they?

Andy Reid was self confident enough to draft Mahomes and sit him for a year plus.

Are Harris and Co. desperate enough that they HAVE to get a passer that starts the opener to legitimize putting their own stamp on things?

We shall see.

 

[Boone]

There's a reason it's so hard to make these calls correctly. It's complicated. Yeah - I hear the 'he had a better supporting cast' argument a lot for various players. To me, it's such a red herring because you cannot prove or disprove is was a factor. Folks trot it out when they want to boost another players potential, but ignore things like strength of opponent at the same time.

I don't think there is any debate on which QB, Maye or Daniels, is a more accurate passer. It's Daniels right now. First of all, if you want to go with the simplest measure, completion %, it's not close. Daniels completed 72% of his passes in 2023, 69% in 2022. But going deeper, I think Daniels ball placement capability, at least right now, is markedly better. But Maye is still a very accurate passer - maybe even more so over the middle and on deep balls. Most of his issues are due to technique/footwork which will likely improve. But you'd take his accuracy right now at the NFL level and be fine with it.

I'll keep saying it. At any given moment it is easy to talk yourself into one guy over the over and then turn around and flip it the other way.

 

[Bulldog]

I agree Daniels is more ready to come in and make an impact Year 1.

He could come in like Marino and not only make an impact in Year 1 but keep going for 15 years.

I am just curious to see what this group that has been so cautious about due diligence and going through the slow grind comes up with.

I keep reading where the Broncos at #12 or the Raiders at #13 might select Bo Nix. I don't think Nix rises to a level above being an average NFL passer.

There are much better rated prospects at those spots to select.

 

[Chris]

Maye is also almost 3 years younger. At the same time in his development, Daniels didn't look like a first round pick at all. In fact didn't Peters at one time before 2023 have Daniels as a third to fourth round selection?

In the back of my mind I am wondering if the quarterback that comes out and is most ready to play in 2024 is not necessarily the one that will be better long-term. That is the real question that needs to be answered by the front office.

And that decision tells us something about the front office itself - how confident are they?

Andy Reid was self confident enough to draft Mahomes and sit him for a year plus.

Are Harris and Co. desperate enough that they HAVE to get a passer that starts the opener to legitimize putting their own stamp on things?

We shall see.

Would Andy Reid have taken that approach if he had not had Alex Smith under center?

My guess would be no.

 

[Chris]

JD, DM, and JM all have visits this coming week.

I need to know which one only eats chicken.